Omaha's Housing Boom

Erik · Post by **Erik** » Mon Sep 27, 2004 11:13 pm

I was looking at the housing permits issued in Omaha and years past and up through August, the metro had (listed in years below and the end of year result) a very good start and the trend is a continual increase even since 1996 and on a record pace for this year, this includes apartments homes etc.. it appears that Omaha is going to break the mark of building over 6000 places to live this year alone. Which shows a trend of continuous increases in the rate of growth (small increases, but increases none of the less), if Omaha breaks 6000 places to live at a 1.8 people per place that would put a population increase of 10,800 not including the new counties that have been added to the metro. This is just something for fun : )

2004 Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA 4448 *****
2003 Omaha* NE-IA MSA 3666 5754
2002 Omaha* NE-IA MSA 3615 5400
2001 Omaha* NE-IA MSA 3276 4432
2000 Omaha* NE-IA MSA 3979 5465
1999 Omaha* NE-IA MSA 3287 5026
1998 Omaha* NE-IA MSA 3122 5148
1997 Omaha NE-IA MSA* 3382 5303
1996 Omaha NE-IA MSA* 3958 5342
1995 Omaha NE-IA MSA* 2654 3900
1994 Omaha NE-IA MSA NA 3264
1993 Omaha NE-IA MSA NA 3967
1992 Omaha NE-IA MSA NA 3456
1991 Omaha NE-IA MSA NA 2929
1990 Omaha NE-IA MSA NA 3370
1989 Omaha NE-IA MSA NA 3149
1988 Omaha NE-IA MSA NA 3075
1987 Omaha NE-IA MSA NA 2906

edsas · Post by **edsas** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 2:47 am

Cool list. And you're certainly right about the record-setting pace so far this year. Hopefully it will become a benchmark Omaha can hit every year.

projectman · Post by **projectman** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 7:57 am

Interesting list Erik. I love these kinds of stats. Thanks

eomaha · Post by **eomaha** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 9:23 am

Keeping in mind... many of these homes are people living within the metro... building news homes. While I'm sure the population continues to rise... I suspect we're also seeing a rise in apartment vacancies on the bottom end (actually I recall the WH having a story about this a short time ago).

Also... while we may pass 6,000, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't. The construction rate isn't proportional from month to month (maybe it is in a place like San Diego). There is a significant drop off during the fall/winter months.

That said... I would still expect to see close to 100,000 added to the metro by 2010.

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 2:50 pm

How do you know if those aren't people moving from an old house to a new house? That might cut a little bit into a population boost.

DMRyan · Post by **DMRyan** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:05 pm

Very good point DTO. Another side trend is the continuing wave of hispanic immigration moving into primarily inner city areas, often purchasing these older homes. Many hispanic households usually live a little more "densely" than families that have been here for generations.

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:08 pm

I wonder what the big jump between 95-96 was.

eomaha · Post by **eomaha** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 11:13 am

Low rates, high demand drive area home building

Permits issued to Omaha-area home builders in August exceeded 500 for the third month this year. Previously, only one month in the last seven years recorded more than 500 permits for single-family homes.

The hot pace of new-home construction continues despite price increases stemming from higher costs for lumber and other materials, several builders said.

They attribute the building pace to their own optimism about the economy, corporate relocations to Omaha, low interest rates and some increased urgency by consumers about buying now in case interest rates or home prices rise.

"People do have money," said Don Fuller of Lifestyle Homes. "They're able to sell their existing home and get a good price, so they're moving up. And first-time home buyers are coming out of apartments and buying."

August permits for single-family homes totaled 551, according to numbers collected this month from area cities and counties by the Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce. That was 20.6 percent more than issued the previous month, and 24 percent more than issued in August 2003.

During 2003, a record-setting year locally and nationally, only one month, July, saw more than 500 permits issued, with 595. This year, June had 555 permits issued and April, 534.

The chamber collects city- and county-issued permit numbers from Douglas, Sarpy, Cass and Washington Counties and from Council Bluffs.

The number of single-family permits issued through August of this year - 3,643 - is 7.5 percent ahead of the 3,390 issued through August last year.

Fuller's company took out four permits in August - two for customers, one for a model home and one for a home being built on speculation.

"That means there's optimism we're going to sell these two homes," he said.

Other signs of optimism in the industry, he said, are the number of new areas coming on line for development. He quickly ticked off nine areas in Omaha - from Castle Creek at 156th and Fort Streets to West Bay Springs at 184th and F Streets - where new streets are going in and lots are being prepared for building.

Tim Young, president of Boyer Young Development Co., said developers and builders the past two years have benefited from businesses, including Union Pacific Corp. and Gallup Organization, relocating workers to Omaha.

"That always stimulates housing because up to 80 percent of them buy new homes," Young said.

At lower price ranges, particularly, he said, the industry has benefited from low interest rates that enabled more first-time buyers to get into the market.

He said he sees no sign that interest rates will rise significantly any time soon. He noted that even though the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week for the third time this year, Freddie Mac's weekly report indicated that mortgage rates nationally dropped slightly.

And he's optimistic that the chamber and city are working to bring more jobs to the Omaha area.

Boyer Young now is developing three new subdivisions - Savannah Shores and Clearwater Falls in Sarpy County and Manchester Park at 168th and Blondo Streets - and plans to launch the Palisades in Gretna next spring.

Neil Smith, chief marketing officer for Hearthstone Homes, which is building in nine subdivisions and has started about 650 homes this year, agreed that Omaha-area builders have benefited from job growth and low interest rates.

The combination, he said, has kept sales strong despite price increases to cover more expensive materials. Omaha remains a relatively affordable market, he said.

Fuller said some buyers, aware that prices are going up and concerned that mortgage interest rates could rise, lately have become quicker to sign a sales contract.

"They don't want to gamble that it'll cost more," he said.

Increases in lumber prices have added about $2,000 to the cost of building a 2,500-square- foot home in the last three or four months, Fuller said.

So are Omaha-area builders risking overbuilding?

Smith, Young and others said no.

"The building is based on contracts," Smith said. "We aren't building a backlog in hopes they can sell. We're selling homes that buyers come to us and want."

Young said the Omaha area has about 12,000 home sites on the market and is going through about 4,500 a year. A 21/2-year supply is not unreasonable, he said.

Dan Pearce of Pearce Homes, president of the Metro Omaha Builders Association, agreed: "My impression - and it's consistent with what I'm seeing and hearing from other builders - is that demand is remaining strong. It appears to be sustainable right now."

Single family home permits issued in August

Permits Estimated value

Douglas County
Elkhorn 12 $1,475,000
Omaha 288 $33,251,867
Unincorporated 5 $1,009,033

Sarpy County
Papillion 67 $12,104,957
Bellevue 19 $3,730,294
La Vista 19 $4,370,422
Gretna 17 $1,859,030
Unincorporated 72 $7,759,501

Cass County
Plattsmouth 1 $127,000
Unincorporated 16 $1,838,918

Washington County
Blair 5 $1,100,000
Unincorporated 5 $539,391

Pottawattamie County
Council Bluffs 25 $2,482,484

SOURCE: Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce

Erik · Post by **Erik** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:36 pm

well, that may be true, but Omaha did have more homes built than Albuquerque and Oklahoma City this month, and the trend itself is showing that its been consistantly doing well for several years and inching upward since 1996, and the fact is that the rates have been low for years. Compared to other cities this year Omaha is doing very well

eomaha · Post by **eomaha** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:39 pm

We'll take it!

Erik · Post by **Erik** » Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:49 pm

Post by **Brad** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 6:14 pm

Does Omaha have to touch Elkhorn before it can annex it. I noticed today there is houses all the way to 204th street between Dodge and Pacific.

Erik · Post by **Erik** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 8:57 pm

Im not completely sure, but I remember reading that Omaha has a 3 mile jurisdiction to annex, so Im thinking they can annex now if they wanted too. That being that what I said is correct

eomaha · Post by **eomaha** » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:46 pm

They better hurry... I can't recall where the population stands today... but I'm pretty sure it's quickly nearing 10,000. I have faith the city has the situation in hand.

heineken · Post by **heineken** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:04 am

Doubtful Omaha will annex anything in the near future. A few months ago a world-herald article stated that Omaha will not annex Linden Estates. A SID with expensive homes and cars seems logical to annex, but our city has too much debt the way it is. The Hilton, Convention Center/Arena, and the riverfront put the big O in debt. We do have some cash sitting in city hall, but we cannot deplete that otherwise our bonds will turn into junk. We are stuck.

As long as that downtown Casino is coming, maybe we should let them purchase the Hilton.

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Thu Oct 07, 2004 4:07 pm

Forget looking to a casino to save us.

I think we should hurry and annex Elkhorn. They all use Omaha on a daily basis so we should get to benefit from them as well. The last I saw for their pop. was between 7,700 and 8,000. We do need to hurry before the next census.

heineken · Post by **heineken** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 8:50 am

I am not looking at a casino as a savior, just trying to make the most of a bad situation. Be realistic, a casino near downtown is inevitable.

As far as Elkorn, hopefully it will be annexed. But it will only happen when it is financially responsible. Maybe the merger will be instilled before future annexations happen, who knows.

Regardless, DTO Luv, you think, "we should hurry" because "we do not need to hurry." I am confused, motor oil has more clarity to me.[/quote]

projectman · Post by **projectman** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 9:00 am

I doubt the Fahey administration will be annexing much any time soon. His "The Sky is Falling" campaign will not allow the city to take on much more debt(as they try to blame Daub for all the debt due to the Qwest Center). So it could impact the 2010 census figures if he stays in there until 2008. This is reminding me of the 80's when Zorinsky and Veys were mayor and they refused to annex any outlying areas resulting in Omaha losing population in the 1990 census.

eomaha · Post by **eomaha** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 12:29 pm

City population doesn't mean much anyway... the MSA is where it's at.

The bigger issue is whether Elkhorn is to present an impediment to future westward growth by the city. Although I suppose an eventual city/county merger would render that concern moot.

projectman · Post by **projectman** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 2:07 pm

I am pretty sure the marketing groups look at whether the core city of a metro area is growing or declining. Whenever they see strong growth in the core it means it is likely the metro area will see good growth as well. The population figures for both core city and metro are highly scrutinized.

DMRyan · Post by **DMRyan** » Fri Oct 08, 2004 2:22 pm

There's too many variables. Look at St. Louis and Minneapolis.

I guess it depends on the dynamics of the city. St. Louis and Minne proper can no longer add new suburban-styled housing growth, but the metros continue to prosper. Central cities that still have plenty for its suburban areas room to grow like Omaha, Wichita and Kansas City certainly have fiscally healthier core cities because of all the suburban growth within their boundaries.

The only way places like St. Louis and Minneapolis can grow is to build up or rebuild the bad areas.

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 7:45 pm

I remember seeing on tv Chuck Sigerson talking about how if we didn't annex Elkhorn that it would be an impedement to Omaha's growth, particulurly with water use. I doubt Fahey will annex ELkhorn unless he is forced to do so by the city council. If Daub was still Mayor Elkhorn would be the new west Omaha by now.

OhioStreetKid · Post by **OhioStreetKid** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 8:48 pm

DTO, not quite, Sigerson and every other proponent of the annexation has said that the autonomy of Elkhorn would impede Omaha's growth, and I agree. However, the water issue you speak of is the natural boundary the Elkhorn River is for utilities expansion. Sigerson believes Douglas County between Elkhorn and Missouri Rivers should be all Omaha's. And to borrow a phrase from another politician, you are living in a "Fantasy World of Spin" if you think all with the world would be right if Daub were in office. Daub while a great visionary, presided over the largest economic expansion of the modern era. Daub's biggest concern was finding something to spend money on, while Fahey's challenge has been paying the bills.

Post by **Brad** » Sat Oct 09, 2004 11:15 pm

A few weeks ago on the Todd and Tyler show durning an interview with Fahey, he said he does want to annex Elkhorn, because he does not want to end up like St Louis(landlocked). They tried to get out of him when it will happen, but he didn't say, however he hinted it might be sooner than later.

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