I like pie in the sky ideas for what could fill in route holes for Omaha or where I would like to see service, but I think we need to look at this rationally too.
All data is for quarter 4 of 2015. There is going to be some seasonal variation particularly with warmer climate destinations in quarters 4 and 1. All numbers are passengers daily each way (PDEW) except where noted with the international destinations. I think it is also important to keep in mind that just because people are flying to these cities doesn't necessarily mean they'd take the direct flight if there was one be it: allegiance to a competing airline, better timing with a 1 stop connection, or price, etc. I also don't have a clue what PDEW in airline is looking for prior to starting service, but my guess is even if you are using 1 regional jet a day you'd like to see 90+ and or be relying on connecting passengers (something PDEW doesn't factor).
Lastly, I don’t doubt that some routes would see a pdew boost of someone actually started flying them, but it is a little chicken and egg like in that no one really is likely to start flying them without the perceived demand.
joleo wrote:Future wishlist service:
Alaska to San Diego
PDEW of 85. This is one of the higher values not currently seeing direct service from Omaha. If not Alaska, I could also see Southwest trying this seasonally at some point. It is borderline still though.
joleo wrote:Southwest to Minneapolis, Houston and Nashville.
Minneapolis is only 55 daily. That is a fairly good sign many people taking the delta flights are connecting elsewhere. I don't see Southwest touching that. Same with Nashville and only 45. Houston is at 102 people each way daily, but this is still only half of the next highest city that receives direct flights on multiple airlines. If they want to start connecting people to Mexico and Latin America from Omaha I wouldn't be surprised there.
joleo wrote:Southwest - a second daily flight to Dallas. (they are testing a second daily flight on select weekends this winter)
DAL alone, not including DFW has a PDEW of 88, obviously higher than many of the metros we've already discussed.
joleo wrote:Southwest switching Orlando service to year-round service instead of summer only and weekend only other times of the year.
Again the numbers I'm using are for Q4 when you'd expect people are going to head to warmer climates, but Orlando's PDEW is 146, the highest of any metro not seeing daily service. This is really the main route that needs to see more attention.
joleo wrote:Frontier going to daily service year-round to Denver and double daily in the summers.
Frontier is still a mess and with 2 other airlines already serving the route I personally don't expect much. Denver has a PDEW of 265, and again that doesn't count all of the people going through there on their way to somewhere else.
joleo wrote:American to Philadelphia would be nice too!
Only 51 people daily each way.
NovakOmaha wrote:My list of fill ins in the route map:
Another really borderline one with San Diego with a PDEW of 81. Short of JetBlue coming to Omaha I'm not really sure who would fly it either. Southwest goes to Kansas City, but the Boston<->KC PDEW is 257, over 3 times that of Omaha.
Nope. While the New York metro has a PDEW of 230, JFK is only a measly 12.
NovakOmaha wrote:BWI , Dulles
Nope and nope. BWI is 41 and IAD is only 32. Entire metro is 224 very similar to the NYC situation.
FLL(yes, Fort Lauderdale in addition to Miami)
The entire metro is only 78. Getting service to one is questionable much less both.
NovakOmaha wrote:Ft. Myers
Nope only 25.
NovakOmaha wrote:New Orleans
NovakOmaha wrote:San Diego
International is a bit different as there isn't the same data source. For this i'm relying on 2011 Brookings Institute data, which is the best I can do.
8,495 total passengers in 2011. Converting into PDEW that is 11.6. Kansas City is on track for about 15,000 passengers on air Canada one way this year.
59,177 total passengers or 81 PDEW. Given that a lot of these would be clustered seasonally pdew would be even higher during specific time periods. I have no doubt if Cancun had pre-clearance or Omaha had a customs/immigration facility to handle commercial aircraft that someone would be doing this seasonally.
NovakOmaha wrote:Puerto Vallarta
See Toronto. 11,577 or 15.85 passengers daily each way.
NovakOmaha wrote:Cabo San Lucas
Same. 10,517 or 14.4
NovakOmaha wrote:Let's put the issue to bed. I don't care if they call it Omaha Hooterville Airfield. Bring on the international flights.
There are actual issues there preventing this and again, nothing is preventing scheduled flights from Canada (Toronto) right now other than a lack of demand.