It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Athomsfere » Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:12 am

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:
Athomsfere wrote:My guesses:

Metro 445,572
CSA 962,491


A loss of 500,000 in the metro?

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:oops: :oops:

LOL, I actually meant Omaha Proper for that first figure.

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:04 pm

At 12:01am, the media embargo will be lifted and the general public will have access to the new 2016 estimates from the US Census website.. For a numbers geek like me, this is Christmas time all over again..

Stay tuned :thumb: ...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby TitosBuritoBarn » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:09 pm

Hopefully they're not accounting for multiple time zones and are just going to wait until midnight in the east. I was up too late waiting for the media to report something the past two days. I'm tired tonight.
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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:11 pm

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:Hopefully they're not accounting for multiple time zones and are just going to wait until midnight in the east. I was up too late waiting for the media to report something the past two days. I'm tired tonight.


I'm with you. I'm hoping for a 12:01est release myself, lol...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:27 am

Omaha MSA- 2015: 915,312.
Omaha MSA- 2016: 924,129.

A very healthy 8,817 gain from 2015 to 2016. Omaha also distanced itself as the 59th largest MSA over Alberquerque NM- Alb at #60- 909,906..

Omaha's MSA has grown 6.8% since 2010 from 865,356 to 924,129 adding 58,773 in the 6 years since the 2010 census..

This is a start. More info to follow. If anyone gets the CSA info and other related Midwest metro area numbers, feel free to post :thumb: ...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Coyote » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:29 am

Nope, not seeing it...
Image

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:30 am

Coyote wrote:Nope, not seeing it...


For now, look here:

http://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/news ... ation.html

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:36 am

More 2016 MSA numbers-

Omaha- #59 at- 924,129
Albuquerque- #60 at- 909,906
Tulsa- #55 at- 987,201
Des Moines- #89 at- 634,725..

More to follow...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Linkin5 » Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:05 am

Lincoln grew from 302,157 in 2010 to 326,921 in 2016 for an 8.2% growth.

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:11 am

The Grand Island MSA grew from 84,773 in 2015 to 85,148 in 2016...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:44 am

The 2016 Omaha CSA estimate is 960,886...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Coyote » Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:07 am

Coyote wrote:So I am guessing
2016 - 961,459
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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:39 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote:Good day friends..

In about 3 weeks, the US Census will be releasing the latest (2016) metro/CSA population estimates..

What's your prediction? I'm going with 926,500 metro and 963,300 CSA...

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I was off. But those Census estimates always seem to low ball Omaha anyway, lol...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby skinzfan23 » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:45 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote:Omaha MSA- 2015: 915,312.
Omaha MSA- 2016: 924,129.

A very healthy 8,817 gain from 2015 to 2016. Omaha also distanced itself as the 59th largest MSA over Alberquerque NM- Alb at #60- 909,906..

Omaha's MSA has grown 6.8% since 2010 from 865,356 to 924,129 adding 58,773 in the 6 years since the 2010 census..

This is a start. More info to follow. If anyone gets the CSA info and other related Midwest metro area numbers, feel free to post :thumb: ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

So at this pace, the Omaha metro should reach the 1,000,000 milestone in about 2023.

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby TitosBuritoBarn » Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:14 am

It appears that a lot of people around the country are retiring. Many of the fastest growing metros had negative natural increase numbers, which implies to me that most of the people moving there are coming to live out their final years.
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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:24 pm

The metro table:

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk

Omaha is doing quite well in the growth department.. Steady as she goes...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:31 pm

skinzfan23 wrote:
Omaha Cowboy wrote:Omaha MSA- 2015: 915,312.
Omaha MSA- 2016: 924,129.

A very healthy 8,817 gain from 2015 to 2016. Omaha also distanced itself as the 59th largest MSA over Alberquerque NM- Alb at #60- 909,906..

Omaha's MSA has grown 6.8% since 2010 from 865,356 to 924,129 adding 58,773 in the 6 years since the 2010 census..

This is a start. More info to follow. If anyone gets the CSA info and other related Midwest metro area numbers, feel free to post :thumb: ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

So at this pace, the Omaha metro should reach the 1,000,000 milestone in about 2023.


I'd say either 2023 or 2024. The CSA should hit the 1 million mark either 2020 or 2021...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby skinzfan23 » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:32 pm

Noticed that NE actually gained more people than IA since the 2015 est (13,351 vs 12,696) and of course increase in % (.7% vs .4%).

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:35 pm

skinzfan23 wrote:Noticed that NE actually gained more people than IA since the 2015 est (13,351 vs 12,696) and of course increase in % (.7% vs .4%).


Yep. The state of NE overall is definitely holding its own :thumb: ...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Erik » Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:48 pm

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:It appears that a lot of people around the country are retiring. Many of the fastest growing metros had negative natural increase numbers, which implies to me that most of the people moving there are coming to live out their final years.


Agreed. We are not a city that is set up for a large retiree migration. However, we are doing well for natural increases, millenial growth and international migration.

You really cannot argue the fact that our rate and growth dynamic bodes very well for the future.

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:01 pm

It might interest (and surprise) us to know of the top 20 metros in the Midwest region by population, Omaha's metro is the 4th largest in terms of % gain so far this decade (2010-2016).. See the list below-

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby skinzfan23 » Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:55 am

Wow, I am surprised by that. I know that a lot of the bigger metros have stagnant growth in the midwest though. Like we have always said, Omaha has seen slow and steady growth, and that is always welcome news. Much rather see that than huge spikes in population followed by housing or job shortage crisis.

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby skinzfan23 » Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:01 am

Also noticed that in counties over 85,000 in NE and IA, Sarpy county is the fastest growing @ 12.7% since 2010.

State / County / April 2010 pop / July 2016 Pop / Rank /% Change / Raw change per week

NE Douglas County 517,116 554,995 121 7.3% 116.1
NE Lancaster County 285,407 309,637 220 8.5% 74.3
NE Sarpy County 158,840 179,023 364 12.7% 61.9

IA Polk County 430,635 474,045 145 10.1% 133.1
IA Linn County 211,229 221,661 298 4.9% 32.0
IA Scott County 165,224 172,474 375 4.4% 22.2
IA Johnson County 130,882 146,547 443 12.0% 48.0
IA Black Hawk County 131,090 132,904 475 1.4% 5.6
IA Woodbury County 102,177 102,779 587 0.6% 1.8
IA Story County 89,542 97,090 610 8.4% 23.1
IA Dubuque County 93,653 97,003 611 3.6% 10.3
IA Pottawattamie County 93,149 93,582 627 0.5% 1.3

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Fri Mar 24, 2017 12:45 pm

skinzfan23 wrote:Wow, I am surprised by that. I know that a lot of the bigger metros have stagnant growth in the midwest though. Like we have always said, Omaha has seen slow and steady growth, and that is always welcome news. Much rather see that than huge spikes in population followed by housing or job shortage crisis.


Omaha has certainly maintaned a healthy, steady growth rate for the past 16 years. The Omaha metro is currently on pace to grow by 11% this decade which matches its growth rate last decade. The metropolitan area has added nearly 60,000 residents since 2010.. That growth number should eclipse 100,000 by the official 2020 Census..

On to a 1 million metro by 2023/24 :thumb: ...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby nativeomahan » Fri Mar 24, 2017 1:03 pm

I note that of all Midwest metros, Des Moines is absolutely killing it. They are growing by way more actual people per year than Omaha, and at about a 40% faster growth rate than Omaha. All while Iowa as a state stagnates, as does most of Nebraska.
Both Omaha and Des Moines are growing at a noticeably faster clip than KC.

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby HR Paperstacks » Fri Mar 24, 2017 1:35 pm

nativeomahan wrote:I note that of all Midwest metros, Des Moines is absolutely killing it. They are growing by way more actual people per year than Omaha, and at about a 40% faster growth rate than Omaha. All while Iowa as a state stagnates, as does most of Nebraska.
Both Omaha and Des Moines are growing at a noticeably faster clip than KC.

Seems like a continuation of people moving from rural areas to the bigger cities. I'm sure this trend will continue.

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby buildomaha » Fri Mar 24, 2017 2:01 pm

HR Paperstacks wrote:
nativeomahan wrote:I note that of all Midwest metros, Des Moines is absolutely killing it. They are growing by way more actual people per year than Omaha, and at about a 40% faster growth rate than Omaha. All while Iowa as a state stagnates, as does most of Nebraska.
Both Omaha and Des Moines are growing at a noticeably faster clip than KC.

Seems like a continuation of people moving from rural areas to the bigger cities. I'm sure this trend will continue.

And Iowa has a much larger inventory of small cities and large towns that people would be moving from.

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Fri Mar 24, 2017 3:56 pm

buildomaha wrote:
HR Paperstacks wrote:
nativeomahan wrote:Both Omaha and Des Moines are growing at a noticeably faster clip than KC.
Seems like a continuation of people moving from rural areas to the bigger cities. I'm sure this trend will continue.

And Iowa has a much larger inventory of small cities and large towns that people would be moving from.


Omaha is doing quite well growth wise as evidenced by the numbers. At it relates to Des Moines, it also helps they are the state capital, centrally located within their state for easier "outstate" assesibility..and don't seem to have as much of the "anti Big city urban bias" Omaha still suffers a bit from here in Nebraska. A rural Nebraskan would just as likely (if not more so) choose to move to Lincoln rather than Omaha. It seems a different mindset in Iowa to an extent..as a move to Des Moines would be the next natural progression..

In any case, I'm very pleased with the Omaha metro growth rate.. And what has been a trend, the US Census traditionally lowballs the annual Omaha estimate..then when the official decade Census comes out, we are pleasantly surprised with an enhancement "bump" in our official numbers :;): ...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:00 pm

More proof of Omaha being a healthy, growing metropolitan area soon to reach the 1 million mark..

From the latest W-H editorial:

"The Omaha metropolitan area currently has about 924,129 residents. It should reach 1 million by 2024 or 2025, says David Drozd, research coordinator with the University of Nebraska at Omaha’s Center for Public Affairs Research.

The UNO demography specialist lists many aspects of growth for the Omaha area since 2010, including 83,000 more babies born and 12,300 more students in Douglas and Sarpy Counties.

Other growth indicators for the metro area: 15,000 new housing units, 38,000 more jobs and 12,300 immigrants arriving from other nations.

The metropolitan area is seeing this growth for good reason. This area nurtures a healthy environment for business, overall school quality is strong, retail opportunities are robust and the array of civic amenities (the Henry Doorly Zoo, the CenturyLink Center and the Holland Performing Arts Center, Lauritzen Gardens, high-quality museums, parks and a vibrant music and restaurant scene, among others) is impressive."..

The complete editorial link:

http://www.omaha.com/opinion/editorial- ... 1e3f7.html

An excellent read from the W-H :thumb: ...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby MTO » Fri Apr 07, 2017 5:21 pm

How can tertiary communities like Valparaiso, Telbasta, Herman, Dunlap etc be considered part of the metro while closer Fremont not be. There's >952,069 in the area!!
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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:10 am

MTO wrote:How can tertiary communities like Valparaiso, Telbasta, Herman, Dunlap etc be considered part of the metro while closer Fremont not be. There's >952,069 in the area!!


That's 960,886 according to the 2016 Omaha CSA estimate, lol..

But I think you're on to something. it's very possible the US Census could re-define the Omaha MSA to include Dodge county..

I also think it's possible for a re-defined CSA combining Omaha-Lincoln within the next 5-10 years. I think this is only a matter of time...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby TitosBuritoBarn » Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:02 pm

It'll all depend on the commuting numbers, not just proximity alone. For example, the San Francisco-Oakland and the San Jose metropolitan areas are contiguous - there is no buffer of undeveloped land between the two. And yet they are separated.
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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Coyote » Sat Apr 08, 2017 9:23 pm

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:It'll all depend on the commuting numbers, not just proximity alone. For example, the San Francisco-Oakland and the San Jose metropolitan areas are contiguous - there is no buffer of undeveloped land between the two. And yet they are separated.

Yes. I thought it was all on a percentage of residents who commute to work, not proximity...
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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:41 pm

Coyote wrote:
TitosBuritoBarn wrote:It'll all depend on the commuting numbers, not just proximity alone. For example, the San Francisco-Oakland and the San Jose metropolitan areas are contiguous - there is no buffer of undeveloped land between the two. And yet they are separated.

Yes. I thought it was all on a percentage of residents who commute to work, not proximity...


The US Census goes with the commuting numbers only..

They've "pushed" for and created a separate Omaha and Lincoln CSA.. But reality will eventually bring them down..

I've always contended and will stand by the eventual Omaha/Lincoln CSA (It might take a decade to happen..but mark my words- it will)..I know it's on another level, but look at the Dallas/Ft Worth CSA now including counties in southern Oklahoma nearly 100+ miles away.. Sheesh...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Athomsfere » Wed Apr 12, 2017 7:24 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote:I've always contended and will stand by the eventual Omaha/Lincoln CSA (It might take a decade to happen..but mark my words- it will)..I know it's on another level, but look at the Dallas/Ft Worth CSA now including counties in southern Oklahoma nearly 100+ miles away.. Sheesh...

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It also seems to me that there is a trajectory change at around 1-1.5 million people for most metros. Completely a feeling, but it seems like when a city / metro hits that range there is a definite growth rate jump, at least for a while.

Can anyone confirm or deny? Are there any studies of urban planning theories used for something like population size driven immigration?

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby MTO » Wed Apr 12, 2017 11:54 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote:
MTO wrote:How can tertiary communities like Valparaiso, Telbasta, Herman, Dunlap etc be considered part of the metro while closer Fremont not be. There's >952,069 in the area!!


That's 960,886 according to the 2016 Omaha CSA estimate, lol..

But I think you're on to something. it's very possible the US Census could re-define the Omaha MSA to include Dodge county..

I also think it's possible for a re-defined CSA combining Omaha-Lincoln within the next 5-10 years. I think this is only a matter of time...

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Wait so the CSA only added 8,817 in a year, there's no way the CSA will hit 1 million by 2020. That also means our growth rate (Combined) has slowed. It was averaging almost 10,000 between 2010 and 2015 that really sucks.
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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Wed Apr 12, 2017 12:42 pm

MTO wrote:
Omaha Cowboy wrote:
MTO wrote:How can tertiary communities like Valparaiso, Telbasta, Herman, Dunlap etc be considered part of the metro while closer Fremont not be. There's >952,069 in the area!!


That's 960,886 according to the 2016 Omaha CSA estimate, lol..

But I think you're on to something. it's very possible the US Census could re-define the Omaha MSA to include Dodge county..

I also think it's possible for a re-defined CSA combining Omaha-Lincoln within the next 5-10 years. I think this is only a matter of time...

Ciao..LiO...Peace



Wait so the CSA only added 8,817 in a year, there's no way the CSA will hit 1 million by 2020. That also means our growth rate (Combined) has slowed. It was averaging almost 10,000 between 2010 and 2015 that really sucks.


Actually, you are incorrect. The US Census adjusted the 2015 Omaha CSA estimate to 950,944, so the CSA added 9,942 from 2015-to-2016.. The Omaha CSA is on pace to hit the 1 million mark by 2020.. Or be really REALLY close...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby TitosBuritoBarn » Wed Apr 12, 2017 1:13 pm

Athomsfere wrote:
Omaha Cowboy wrote:I've always contended and will stand by the eventual Omaha/Lincoln CSA (It might take a decade to happen..but mark my words- it will)..I know it's on another level, but look at the Dallas/Ft Worth CSA now including counties in southern Oklahoma nearly 100+ miles away.. Sheesh...

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It also seems to me that there is a trajectory change at around 1-1.5 million people for most metros. Completely a feeling, but it seems like when a city / metro hits that range there is a definite growth rate jump, at least for a while.

Can anyone confirm or deny? Are there any studies of urban planning theories used for something like population size driven immigration?


No theories that I am aware of, but anecdotally there appears to be a connection between population growth (or certain demographic population growth) and awareness of the city. Outside circles like ours, people are pretty ignorant of population. You'll often see people try to make the case that Omaha should get a pro-sports team because the city population is larger than the city population of Miami, St. Louis, Salt Lake City, etc. A lady I used to work with in Omaha said she missed the big city life...of Madison, Wisconsin (which currently has 300,000 fewer inhabitants in its metro). Places like Birmingham, AL, Tucson, AZ, Hartford, CT, Richmond, VA, and Louisville, KY (among others) are all in the 1-1.5 million metro realm, but they're not known for their population growth or for being cosmopolitan urban areas. So, from what I can tell, it's not the size that matters, it's how you use it.
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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:21 pm

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:A lady I used to work with in Omaha said she missed the big city life...of Madison, Wisconsin (which currently has 300,000 fewer inhabitants in its metro).


LOL.. Well, hopefully you educated her on the error of her ways :lol: .. Sometimes ignorance isn't always bliss :cheers: ...

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Re: It's that time of year again- 2016 metro population estimates

Postby Omaha Cowboy » Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:25 pm

Athomsfere wrote:
Omaha Cowboy wrote:I've always contended and will stand by the eventual Omaha/Lincoln CSA (It might take a decade to happen..but mark my words- it will)..I know it's on another level, but look at the Dallas/Ft Worth CSA now including counties in southern Oklahoma nearly 100+ miles away.. Sheesh...

Ciao..LiO...Peace


It also seems to me that there is a trajectory change at around 1-1.5 million people for most metros. Completely a feeling, but it seems like when a city / metro hits that range there is a definite growth rate jump, at least for a while.

Can anyone confirm or deny? Are there any studies of urban planning theories used for something like population size driven immigration?


Like Titos, I can't confirm or deny that one.. But I get the same sense you do.. Perhaps the annual US Census "lowball" of Omaha's metro estimate will change once we hit/surpass the 1 million population mark...

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