Predict the Year Metro Omaha Tops 1 Million.

[edsas]

What year do you think Metro Omaha will hit that magic milestone?

I say 2013 is the lucky year.

[OmahaDevelopmentMan]

I'd have to say 2013 too. But you never know, alot can change in a short amount of time. A safe generality would be sometime before 2015.

[almighty_tuna]

I say 2014, but for no other reason than because it strikes my fancy right now.

[DTO Luv]

It might be a bit wishfull, but 2011. I think in the next few years we could have a bigger percentage growth since Omaha has been exposed to a lot more people and in a positive light.

[StreetsOfOmaha]

2010 or earlier. Not only am I foreseeing the city's direct metro area growing, but I'm also foreseeing the outlying areas of Omaha's CSA growing and also expanding, adding existing population centers to the CSA. I don't think 5 years is an unreasonable amount of time at all. And, weird, neither does the Omaha Chamber of Commerce.

[DTO Luv]

Is there any way to gauge if their "1,000,000 by 2010" campaign is working?

[edsas]

Aaron,

I'm just curious which counties you consider to be on the verge of CSA addition. Other than Lancaster County (which would obviously cause a huge boost to the CSA population) the CSA seems to extend as far as it can possibly go until the exurbs of the outer counties turn into suburbs and new exurbs develop in the counties beyond those. A timeline for a scenario like that doesn't seem to be predictable at all. And would we even want the Omaha CSA to sprawl that much? We're talking about counties two or maybe even three away from Douglas County. That's Los Angeles scale sprawl.

[projectman]

I think he's talking about Dodge County ( Fremont) is now its own CSA. Dodge County has maybe 35 - 36,000 people and doesn't do much to push us closer to 1m. I predict 2015 or 2016. I don't think we are going to see significant job growth(in this decade) like we did in the 90's. Most of the growth will come from immigration. We will have to wait until 2013 when the government realigns the metropolitan areas to see which counties are added to the official SMSA.

[edsas]

I thought Dodge County was part of the CSA already. Just not the MSA. Wasn't it something like Omaha MSA = 790,000, Omaha CSA = 820,000? The extra 30,000 being plus or minus Dodge County?

[projectman]

Yes that is correct. I don't know for sure if the CSA is added to Omaha's official metro population. I thought the CSA is separate outside of the metro area.

[DMRyan]

For all intensive comparitive statistical purposes outside of pecker inflation, the CSA is useless.

The CSA is just a combination of somewhat nearby micropolitan areas with another micropolitan or metropolitan area.

[DMRyan]

And I pick around 2013 or 2014 as well. Who knows what will happen with any metro area county reshuffling though.

[DTO Luv]

I think 2 Iowa counties will be added. Shebly and Montgomery counties which border on Pott. county. They are both equally as far from Omaha as Dodge and parts of Saunders county. There not that big though, but I guess they would have a pretty healthy amounts of people working in CB or Omaha.

And since it was brought up, I think Lincoln should be added to Omaha. It's not more than 30 minutes from extreme west parts of the Metro and lots of people in Lincoln work or come to Omaha often.

[OmahaDevelopmentMan]

Yea but DTO, Lincoln doesn't revolve around Omaha's success. Most towns that are added to Omaha's metro do. Thats why they are a aprt of the metro area.

[StreetsOfOmaha]

As far as Lincoln goes, it's all about percentages. If Lincoln ever reached the point (which they won't) where enough of their population was driving to Omaha and back each day for work and pleasure, then they'd be added.

You're right, edsas. I shouldn't have said "adding new population centers", because you're right, at least on the Nebraska side, the whole general Omaha vicinity is accounted for. I suppose those two counties in Iowa are possibilities.

The whole point is that, to some degree, healthy city (or metro growth in this case) should be exponential. Meaning, even if Omaha keeps its 12% growth rate, that 12% represents a constantly increasing number of people added over time. The rate of growth is constantly accelerating with each and every person who is added to the metro.

[edsas]

Oh sure. I think you're completely right about the exponential component of Omaha's population growth.

I wonder how foriegn immigration (and the typically higher birthrates that comes with those groups) will effect Omaha's annual percentages in the future.

[nativeomahan]

Presuming Dodge County eventually becomes part of the Omaha metro area, we will pass 1,000,000 in the 2030 census.

[projectman]

I think we'll get there at least 10 years before the 2030 census.

[DTO Luv]

Dodge county already is. I don't think that CMSA thing applies in this case.

[eomaha]

We added... what... 77,000 or so during the 90's. We'll have to add at LEAST 100+ thousand in each of the next two decades to reach 1 million by 2020.

[Swift]

We added... what... 77,000 or so during the 90's. We'll have to add at LEAST 100+ thousand in each of the next two decades to reach 1 million by 2020.

But Omaha has a lot more to offer now than it did in the 90's. Plus the definition of a Metro areais now bigger than it was then, right?

[edsas]

I agree Swift. To hit 1 million by 2013 (my prediction) metro Omaha will have to grow by 20,000 people in each of the next 9 years. Considering the current size of the metro, this is probably already the typical annual growth rate.

[DTO Luv]

Does anyone know what cities like Denver and Charlotte did to grow so fast. It seems like no one realy knew about them and then one day BOOM!. Charlotte had the NBA, NASCAR, NFL, and really pushed itself up a few notches in population. We should try and duplicate whatever it was they did.

[projectman]

Charlotte blossomed in the 70's and 80's as a banking/financial Center, coupled with the fairly mild winters.

Denver was all about mountains, oil and energy in the 70's and 80's. In the 90's it was the high tech bubble and less about energy. I'm sure the mountains are still a big draw.

[DTO Luv]

Was there a concentrated effort to go after banking in Charlotte or was it a growth of local companies? I know we have the Space thing we're working on but has Omaha made any efforts to grow a certain profitable market?

[edsas]

Denver's growth can be attributed to people wanting to live near the Rocky Mountains and an influx of Califonians who want more "open space".

I'm not sure what Charlotte did to foster growth recently, but I suspect that it has to do with the Carolinas having 11 million people. A large city had to develop there at some point. Charlotte has a large banking industry which is why its skyline has grown so dramatically.

[edsas]

Sorry for repeating information, I posted before I saw projectman's replies.

[projectman]

I know the Chamber is targeting certain industries like medical and space but I don't recall the financial sector as one of their targets.

[DTO Luv]

Medical makes sense siince UNMC and CU Medical are both dong really good, but is the Space Industry something that will bring large groups of people to Omaha? The only places that come to mind associated with Space are Houston, Florida, and Colorado Springs. I know space flights are out of the question, but what types of Space related business sectors are they trying to bring in? It seems to me that there could be a better business to go after.

If Omaha is such a telecommunications hotbed, maybe we should go after those kinds of businesses.

[edsas]

The Space industry is in a lot of locations. Metro LA has a pretty big aerospace sector, especially around Pasadena (JPL). The Space Inudustry has nothing but growth potential for the 21st Century (particularly with the advent of private space missions starting with the winning of the X Prize in 2004). Omaha would do well to tap into this industry before the real boom comes.

[almighty_tuna]

I agree with edsas...plenty of space businesses in the LA area and points just northward in Antelope Valley. With the Peter Kiewitt Institute beginning to rival MIT I see no reason not to go after the big guns on a much larger scale; Lockheed Martin, Boeing, etc. Getting a large scale development lab should be a priority and is not a totally unattainable goal. We have the infrastructure, military presence and intelligence base. Commercial space ventures are just beginning and also as edsas mentioned, it would be smart to get a foothold in time to take advantage of the impending industry boom.

[StreetsOfOmaha]

Presuming Dodge County eventually becomes part of the Omaha metro area, we will pass 1,000,000 in the 2030 census.

Ha! Good one. That's 20 years later than it will actually happen. I think you meant to say that Omaha will reach 2 million by 2030.

[edsas]

Well, I guess if the Legislature's proposed "Nebraska Innovation Zone" proves successful, then all you guys who guessed 2010 or sooner will be right.

[Swift]

Well, I guess if the Legislature's proposed "Nebraska Innovation Zone" proves successful, then all you guys who guessed 2010 or sooner will be right.

Which makes sense, since I do predict the future.

[edsas]

Cool, Swift. What am I going to have for dinner?

[Swift]

Cool, Swift. What am I going to have for dinner?

You will have pot roast with a side of brussle sprouts. It will be sub-par.

[nativeomahan]

Presuming Dodge County eventually becomes part of the Omaha metro area, we will pass 1,000,000 in the 2030 census.

Ha! Good one. That's 20 years later than it will actually happen. I think you meant to say that Omaha will reach 2 million by 2030.

No, I meant what I said. Bet you a dinner at Denny's that I'm right... presuming Denny's is still in business in 2030. Remember that censuses only come around every 10 years. The next one will be in 2010, and will likely show Metro Omaha gaining 65 or 70k over the 2000 census (looking at pop gains in same geographic area as in 2000). Harrison and Mills counties in IA are now part of the Omaha SMSA. So is Saunders County, Nebraska, so add 50,000 more for them but that is a one time gain that won't be repeated. In 2010 the 8 county metro will be about 840,000k. Add maybe 80,000 in the next decade and you are still short of 1 million in 2020. Next census is 2030 and there you are. If you look at Omaha's population growth history over the past 50 years it should become clearer to you.

[DTO Luv]

Census are useless. I don't need the government to tell me what Omaha is. We all live hear and know that Omaha's influence goes beyond the CSA borders. Even the counties just oustife of the "metro" are close to Omaha. I prefer to think of our metro as Omaha's circle of influence. And since we're not close to any other cites that is a pretty big circle. I know first hand that people in Otoe and Nemaha counties work in Omaha or travel to mainly Omaha and Lincoln to shop weekly. Not once a month. I know that it's hard to say where does Omaha stop but I think a more fair assesment is how many people rely on Omaha (or even Lincoln) for things just outside of every day events.

[nativeomahan]

[quote="DTO Luv"]Census are useless. I don't need the government to tell me what Omaha is.

Fine, but government statistics ARE what businesses and government look at when deciding where to locate or expand, or in doleing out tax dollars. All cities/urban areas must be judged by the same set of standards. There may be isolated instances of people driving 100 miles each way to work or a concert but a few examples of that does not serve to expand a metro area. I and tens of thousands of Omahans go to KC for concerts and to shop (they have an awesome farmer's market). Does that mean Omaha is part of metro KC?

[DTO Luv]

I know that's what business look at for expanding into an area, but it really screws Omaha. That one guy who said "I need a chane to tell my clients about Omaha and Lincoln," is a dick for saying that. There are close to 1.2 million people living here and he needs a pice of paper to tell him tha? Please. I doubt abyone drives 100 miles to work but I know my family in Nebraska City and many other people make the 40 trip to Omaha daily. (40 miles is about as far a Fremont) Maybe to attract retailers we do need to get in writing that Omaha is so big, but it's utterly stupid to hear people say things like," I would come to Omaha but they don't have enough people." Even if the metro Omaha definition changed tomorrow it wouldn't change the fact that jsut as many people lived there yeasteday and just as many people had busiiness/things to do in Omaha.