Predict the Year Metro Omaha Tops 1 Million.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 12:02 am

DTO Luv wrote:Even if the metro Omaha definition changed tomorrow it wouldn't change the fact that just as many people lived there yesterday and just as many people had busiiness/things to do in Omaha.

Totally agree. Whether we are 600,000 or 6 million matters not to me. It is still the same city when I look out the window.

CountOfMC · Post by **CountOfMC** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:14 pm

nativeomahan wrote:
StreetsOfOmaha wrote:
nativeomahan wrote:Presuming Dodge County eventually becomes part of the Omaha metro area, we will pass 1,000,000 in the 2030 census.
Ha! Good one. That's 20 years later than it will actually happen. I think you meant to say that Omaha will reach 2 million by 2030.
No, I meant what I said. Bet you a dinner at Denny's that I'm right... presuming Denny's is still in business in 2030. Remember that censuses only come around every 10 years. The next one will be in 2010, and will likely show Metro Omaha gaining 65 or 70k over the 2000 census (looking at pop gains in same geographic area as in 2000). Harrison and Mills counties in IA are now part of the Omaha SMSA. So is Saunders County, Nebraska, so add 50,000 more for them but that is a one time gain that won't be repeated. In 2010 the 8 county metro will be about 840,000k. Add maybe 80,000 in the next decade and you are still short of 1 million in 2020. Next census is 2030 and there you are. If you look at Omaha's population growth history over the past 50 years it should become clearer to you.

You're kidding, right? Omaha in the 90's alone was up near 80K. Why would you think this decade would be any different? We're not the dormant city we once were 20 years ago. Look for the 2000-2010 census to gain over 100K. As for the next decade.. who knows, it could be scary. The secret's startin to leak out and you'll see the 1M mark before 2015.

edsas · Post by **edsas** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:21 pm

native,

Two things about your 2030 estimate. One is that the census does put out fairly accurate annual estimates, so you don't actually have to wait until the end of a decade to guess when the metro will reach a certain number. Secondly, you have to look at percentages, not past raw growth numbers.

Metro Omaha, as of 2004, had 820,000 people. Using a modest 1% annual growth rate, gives metro Omaha 870,000 by 2010. Continuing with 1% over the next decade, Omaha would reach 960,000 by 2020.

Now that's going with a very modest growth rate. One that Omaha would have no trouble surpassing if it had nothing but natural growth going for it. But Omaha has emerged in the last 20 years as a place to be taken seriously for business expansion. The metro is poised to post some impressive growth percentages over the next few years and even only if it's short-lived, Omaha will continue to have its spurts and stops, creating a solid foundation for more and more rapid growth.

Anybody who doesn't see the Omaha metro (within its current boundaries) surpass 1 million by the middle of the next decade (or by the 2020 census as the absolute latest) is either a pessimist, or they just don't see the incredible (and in my opinion, unstoppable) potential the city has created.

projectman · Post by **projectman** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 6:09 pm

Just a few stats on how many residents metro areas in the middle of the country added between 1990 and 2000.

Dallas gained 1,172,250
Denver gained 512,357
Minneapolis gained 429,972
Kansas City gained 199,510
Oklahoma City gained 124,379
Tulsa gained 98,513
Omaha gained 81,244
Des Moines gained 65,048
Wichita gained 60,055
Lincoln gained 37,696

Assuming Omaha grows it's metro by 100,000 in this decade that would put us at 867,000 by 2010. If the government realigns the metropolitan area in 2013 and we gain a county or two, the 1 million mark is possible between 2015 and 2020. If the farm economy goes south like in the 80's that could impact the area somewhat.
Lot's of variables here but it is certainly possible by 2020.

StreetsOfOmaha · Post by **StreetsOfOmaha** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 8:53 pm

edsas wrote:native,

Two things about your 2030 estimate. One is that the census does put out fairly accurate annual estimates, so you don't actually have to wait until the end of a decade to guess when the metro will reach a certain number. Secondly, you have to look at percentages, not past raw growth numbers.

Metro Omaha, as of 2004, had 820,000 people. Using a modest 1% annual growth rate, gives metro Omaha 870,000 by 2010. Continuing with 1% over the next decade, Omaha would reach 960,000 by 2020.

Now that's going with a very modest growth rate. One that Omaha would have no trouble surpassing if it had nothing but natural growth going for it. But Omaha has emerged in the last 20 years as a place to be taken seriously for business expansion. The metro is poised to post some impressive growth percentages over the next few years and even only if it's short-lived, Omaha will continue to have its spurts and stops, creating a solid foundation for more and more rapid growth.

Anybody who doesn't see the Omaha metro (within its current boundaries) surpass 1 million by the middle of the next decade (or by the 2020 census as the absolute latest) is either a pessimist, or they just don't see the incredible (and in my opinion, unstoppable) potential the city has created.

Exactly. Thanks, edsas.

Native, you're assuming that Omaha will simply continute adding the same raw number of people per year. Take into account that population growth is exponential. That is, the bigger you get, the more you grow. It's an upward spiral.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 10:46 pm

Ah ha! You all are comin' around. I said that the first census to show metro Omaha over 1 million will be in 2030. That means that Omaha will top 1 million sometime between April 2, 2020 and April 1, 2030. I feel as confident in that prediction as in about anything. We (like the midwest as a whole) are experiencing a net in-migration of people from Latin America and Asia and a net out-migration of about everyone else. All of Omaha's "white" population increase is from births over deaths, taking into account slightly more people moving out than moving in.

Nebraska continues to bleed population from about 80 rural counties to the few urban counties. So Omaha's gains are just a population transfer from rural areas in the state. If Nebraska kept up with a 1% annual population growth the state would gain about 200,000 people a decade, instead of an average of less than 100,000. With the coming 2010 census Nebraska will actually lose one of our 3 members in the US House of Representatives. That will mean 33% less clout in D.C. in that branch of Congress. Sad.

BTW, I went to the US Census Bureau home page and noted that they just came out with pop estimates thru July 1, 2004. For all you fans of estimates, here are the official estimates for Nebraska: From April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2004, Nebraska went from 1,711,263 to 1,747,214. Less than a 36,000 gain in 40+% of a decade. That reflects about 8,300 per year for the state. A good chunk of this is Lancaster County. The rest is Metro Omaha, Kearney and a few other places. Many areas no doubt lost a bit, but the actual numbers of people moving out of rural Nebraska are not large, as there aren't many people left to leave, relatively speaking. Iowa gained less than 30,000 statewide, for those interested.

During the 1990s the overall national population gain was 13.2%. Metro Omaha gained 11.8% Not bad, but not exactly a powerhouse performance. Metro Omaha stood at 767,041 in 2000. We have added 50,000 or so more people since 2000 due to a change in the boundaries of the metro area. So let's pretend we were at 817,000 in 2000. Add 11.8% to that figure and you are up to about 910,000, but the overall area may well grow slower than 11.8% because we are taking in more rural counties that show little growth, or even population losses, like Harrison Co., IA. Time will tell on that. Tune in in late 2010.

eomaha · Post by **eomaha** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 11:33 pm

(so then your answer would be "2016 or later" ... thank you nativeomahan

)

Omaha is right on track with regards to population growth in the midwest as a whole (and yes, the midwest as a -whole- is losing congressional seats to the south and west). I've been to Phoenix, Dallas, Austin, Las Vegas, etc. Here's to modest growth!

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Thu Jan 20, 2005 11:38 pm

jhuston wrote:(so then your answer would be "2016 or later" ... thank you nativeomahan )

I've been to Phoenix, Dallas, Austin, Las Vegas, etc. Here's to modest growth!

Here! Here! I'm a firm believer in quality of growth, not quantity. We have that luxury. Others don't.

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 1:18 am

Nativeomahan,

What rural counties are in our metro that are shrinking? Harrison county may be growing extremely slow but I dount it's shrinking. Also where do you get that "slightly more people are moving out than in." ? That would mean Omaha is shrinking and it's definantly not shrinking.

eomaha · Post by **eomaha** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 1:22 am

DTO you're not factoring in growth from births. Although the most recent numbers DO show we're bringing in more people than we're losing... the vast majority are still coming from 'our own'.

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 1:33 am

Well I guess that's all the more reason we need to work on retaining people.

Swift · Post by **Swift** » Fri Jan 21, 2005 8:29 am

I was under the impression that 11.8% was an extremely healthy growth rate...not small, but not too big that the infrastucture can't keep up with it.

If Omaha's growth rate stays at 11.8% in a decade then we will reach 1,000,000 by 2020, assuming nothing else happens.

840,000 x .118 = 99,120
99,120 + 840,000 = 939,120 by 2014

(939,120 x .0119) + 939,120 = 950,295 2015
(950,295 x .0119) + 950,295 = 961,603 2016
(961,603 x .0119) + 961,603 = 973,046 2017
(973,046 x .0119) + 973,046 = 984,625 2018
(984,625 x .0119) + 984,625 = 996,342 2019
(996,342 x .0119) + 996,342 = 1,008,198 2020

.0119 represents 1.19 or the annual growth rate of Omaha MA.

at 12%
2014 940800

(940,800 x .012) + 940,800 = 952,089
(952,089 x .012) + 952,089 = 963,514
(963,514 x .012) + 963,514 = 975,076
(975,076 x .012) + 975,076 = 986,776
(986,776 x .012) + 986,776 = 998,617
(998,617 x .012) + 998,617 = 1,010,600

Someone should figure out when it would happen if Omaha's growth rate were to change (which it likely will).

StreetsOfOmaha · Post by **StreetsOfOmaha** » Sat Jan 22, 2005 12:50 am

Swift, those are exactyly the kind of calculations I would do while sitting bored in math class in high school.

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Sat Jan 22, 2005 12:57 am

I used to have whole notebooks full of that stuff. (Seeing as how I love numbers Jeff

) It's comforting knowing there's other people with the same obsessions.

eomaha · Post by **eomaha** » Sat Jan 22, 2005 8:55 am

Keeping in mind... our average growth over the past 40 years was about 10% (the 90's was actually quite a big jump in rate of growth for us). Just as you don't want to bank your retirement on expectations from the stock market in the 90's... you don't want to get overly optimistic on population growth using this decades numbers.

I'm of course going to use the -MSA- number... rather than the CSA number which we all like to quote... but doesn't mean as much to the business sector.

792,144 2004
800,065 2005
808,066 2006
816,146 2007
824,308 2008
832,551 2009
840,876 2010

849,285 2011
857,778 2012
866,355 2013
875,019 2014
883,769 2015
892,607 2016
901,533 2017
910,548 2018
919,654 2019
928,850 2020

938,139 2021
947,520 2022
956,995 2023
966,564 2024
976,230 2025
985,992 2026
995,852 2027
1,005,811 2028

StreetsOfOmaha · Post by **StreetsOfOmaha** » Sat Jan 22, 2005 12:11 pm

No F-in way.

CountOfMC · Post by **CountOfMC** » Sat Jan 22, 2005 12:20 pm

I see no problem adding 150-200K in the next 10 years. 2008-2015 will be our monster years..

StreetsOfOmaha · Post by **StreetsOfOmaha** » Sat Jan 22, 2005 12:31 pm

Here's my proposal

:

Starting with 2% growth in 2005 and increasing by 1% each year until reaching 7% annual growth in 2010.

792,144 2004 1%
807,987 2005 2%
832,227 2006 3%
865,517 2007 4%
908,793 2008 5%
963,321 2009 6%
1,030,754 2010 7%

Just as you guys can assume our growth rate will remain static, I can assume it will slowly increase. And this is even starting out with what I think is a modest estimate for 2004.

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Sat Jan 22, 2005 2:07 pm

Since Omaha isn't a sun belt growth city it's all the more reason for there to be a Omaha-Lincoln Metro. The year 2028 is a long time to wait for the MSA to get a million people. And if certain retailers and developers only deal with million+ metros, than Omaha will be screwed for a long time.

projectman · Post by **projectman** » Sat Jan 22, 2005 3:47 pm

I am very confident that the Omaha metro area's population growth rate will remain between 1 -1.5 %. The only metros that will see an annual growth rate of 3% or more are Las Vegas, Dallas, Austin, Atlanta and Phoenix. Maybe Denver and Charlotte.

OmahaDevelopmentMan · Post by **OmahaDevelopmentMan** » Sat Jan 22, 2005 3:58 pm

We pry will stay pretty consistant, but there will pry be one or two years of larger growth. The problem with us trying to predict the future is we never know what will happen business wise. Who knows, next month a company could relocate its headquarters to Omaha bringing in huge numbers of new residents, or a company could even leave Omaha, moving most of its employees. Its too hard to say.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Sun Feb 13, 2005 4:34 pm

Not meaning to beat a dead horse, or to throw water on anyone's campfire, but I've lived here long enough to see wild predictions of huge population increases for Omaha made almost every decade, only to have them come crashing and burning with the next census. Omaha nearly doubled it's size during the '70s, but the 1980 census only showed the county growing like 8,000 people in a decade! After the hue and cry the census bureau found some areas not counted and adjusted the number upward, but still the metro area grew by only like 35-40,000 (I admit I have not looked the number up) during the entire decade of a fantastic construction boom. City Hall was still shaking their heads. Where they had screwed up their estimates was the fact that the average number of people living in a household plunged during the 70s, wiping out most of the predicted population gains.

Today we all know that a household holds less than 3 persons on average...it might be closer to just 2 now.

Immigration into metro Omaha from Latin America is one new factor that didn't exist in the 70s or even 80s. We don't know where these numbers are going to go in the coming years because W and Congress keeps talking of shutting off legal immigration. Illegals will still come, of course, but they won't answer the door when the census bureau comes a knocking. I expect that Omaha will grow by more latino and asian people than we grow by WASPs in the coming decades. That is a national trend. What growth we experience in the white population will come from births over deaths, which I believe is about 5,000 a year. Latinos tend to have larger families than whites, but as they assimilate that tends to diminish.

The map doesn't illistrate any of this. It illustrates that Omaha is unlikely to become any population magnet...the map shows us to be what might impolitely be called an afterthought. Face it, if the metro just disappeared one day most American's wouldn't notice any difference unless they tried to order Omaha Steaks or call Mutual of Omaha with an insurance question. Come to think of it, some of those calls are probably outsourced to India.

It's still my hometown, and I love it. Though it drives me crazy some days (interstate billboards being one reason).

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nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Sun Feb 13, 2005 4:55 pm

Now that I've figured out how to do this..here's another pretty map...

What this map displays is the percentage change in population for every county during the past 3 reported years. You will note that Omaha and Lincoln and Des Moines are doing OK. But we are adrift in a sea of blue...representing areas of declining population and influence. There is blue (even dark blue) in all 4 directions from where we live. From what I can tell the only major population centers suffering this fate besides Omaha, Lincoln and Des Moines are Pittsburgh and Buffalo. But each of those cities has more than a million in their metro...Pittsburgh has more than 2 million. These cities have already achieved status as major metro areas.

Yes, but what does this MEAN? I don't know. They say figures lie and liars figure.

My take is that we live in islands of healthy population stability in a sea of declining population and influence. The entire Great Plains and upper Midwest share this predicament (though Wisconsin and Michigan seem to be doing something right). These are long term trends, that started after the invention of the internal combustion automobile and won't stop anytime soon. It's not good, or bad. It just is.

eomaha · Post by **eomaha** » Sun Feb 13, 2005 5:05 pm

Anyone who's been to a Phoenix, Las Vegas, Austin, etc... knows, the last thing we want is out of control growth. At the same time, we have plenty of 'big city' amenities. What more do we want? Major league sports? A more prestigious retailer? We're scraping the barrel here folks... we already have it all in my opinion. Now it's just a matter of refining it, growing it sensibly.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Sun Feb 13, 2005 5:32 pm

jhuston wrote:Anyone who's been to a Phoenix, Las Vegas, Austin, etc... knows, the last thing we want is out of control growth. At the same time, we have plenty of 'big city' amenities. What more do we want? Major league sports? A more prestigious retailer? We're scraping the barrel here folks... we already have it all in my opinion. Now it's just a matter of refining it, growing it sensibly.

We don't "have it all." But we do have all of the essentials, and then some. The city still could benefit from some polishing around the edges. Residents know all the little secret gems of the city. We just need to get the word out to those casual visitors and conventioneers. There is more to us than beef and the Old Market and CWS. Omaha is a great place to raise a family, but that is only one piece of the puzzle. Many singles find the city lacking in energy and openness to people not seeking a nuclear family lifestyle. Only when this changes can we move up to the next level. Adding 1 million more people is not the answer.

StreetsOfOmaha · Post by **StreetsOfOmaha** » Sun Feb 13, 2005 7:12 pm

I think you just nailed the fundamental difference between me and you, Jeff. You think Omaha already has it all, where as it seems very clear to me that we don't. ;)

Native, I'm definitely not surprised that the counties surrounding the Omaha metro are declining and our counties are growing. Where do you think those people are moving? The Omaha metro!

eomaha · Post by **eomaha** » Sun Feb 13, 2005 7:21 pm

There is a difference... that's not it.

You see... I am content with what Omaha already has... and enthusiastically anticipate and greet all the new things which are coming. You are not content with what Omaha has... and are frustrated that those things I patiently anticipate... are not here today.

StreetsOfOmaha · Post by **StreetsOfOmaha** » Sun Feb 13, 2005 7:47 pm

That's very true, but I think it's an elaboration on my previous point.

eomaha · Post by **eomaha** » Sun Feb 13, 2005 8:00 pm

Being content with what Omaha has... and thinking it has it all are two entirely different things. If I thought it had it all... I would never have had a personal reason to venture away!

projectman · Post by **projectman** » Sun Feb 13, 2005 8:47 pm

I think Omaha has plenty of room to grow and improve on what we already have. You both make good points. We need to keep growing to keep up the synergy.

eomaha · Post by **eomaha** » Sun Feb 13, 2005 10:23 pm

We're growing... we're growing!

It doesn't have to be a pissing contest with Des Moines and KC.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Sun Feb 13, 2005 10:28 pm

StreetsOfOmaha wrote: Native, I'm definitely not surprised that the counties surrounding the Omaha metro are declining and our counties are growing. Where do you think those people are moving? The Omaha metro!

Yes, the rural folk move here (just ask people in line at the grocery or wherever where they grew up and many will tell you from a rural areas within 100 iles of Omaha). And the rural immigrants replace the exodus of young talent that was already here, that heads to LA, NY, Dallas, Denver or Atlanta. I know people who grew up here who left for all of those places, and more. That's why Omaha is only growing at about 1% a year, and the region as a whole is barely growing at all.

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Mon Feb 14, 2005 7:31 am

nativeomahan wrote: Residents know all the little secret gems of the city. We just need to get the word out to those casual visitors and conventioneers.

I think our residents are still pretty ignorant about what Omaha has to offer. I worry more about those people liking the city than vistitors and conventioneers. They don't live here.

OmahaRules · Post by **OmahaRules** » Mon Feb 14, 2005 10:47 am

I've known plenty of people who have moved to LA, Chicago, Denver etc. and have moved back. I think that tells you something because although they might think it is so bad at first they get out there and they long to come back how many people do you know that have left and always talk about one day moving back to Omaha because its such a great town?

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Mon Feb 14, 2005 10:55 am

That seems to be the story of many Omahans. They grow up not liking it, move away, and then they can't wait to come back. To bad we can't keep so many of them from leaving in the first place.

edsas · Post by **edsas** » Mon Feb 14, 2005 2:38 pm

To predict that a metro of 800,000 will grow by 200,000 by the middle of the next decade is an optomistic prediction, but not an outlandish one. Yes, it's true that anything can happen. Yes, it's true that Omaha could stagnate. Yes, it's true that Omaha could lose population. The point is, nativeomaha, that most of us don't think those scenarios will be the case. We're not pulling figures out of our butts here. These are doable growth rates for Omaha. We know the growth tendancies of the Omaha metro. We know the characteristics of the rural counties surrounding the metro. These are the kinds of things that many of us think about all day. Your opinion that metro Omaha is over 20 years away from 1 million is fine and you may be absolutely right. But yours is also just an opinion and we get it already. You think Omaha's growth will neither excellerate in raw numbers nor percentages. Many of us don't agree, but your opinion is valid. So I'm not sure what trotting all these maps out is for? Are you trying to convince us of your opinion? Because you don't seem to be convincing anybody.

edsas · Post by **edsas** » Mon Feb 14, 2005 2:48 pm

I'm not trying to be a jerk, btw. I just don't get why 800k + 200k over ten years would be considered outlandish.

Here's how I would catagorize raw growth numbers over ten year spans:

900k + 100k = likely
800k + 200k = optomistic
700k + 300k = very optomistic
600k + 400k = outlandish
500k + 500k = only if you're Vegas
400k + 600k = no way

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Mon Feb 14, 2005 2:52 pm

20,000 people a year seems optimistic. For all we know some local company could get bigger and bring more workers or we'll get an amusement park and no one will leave.

CountOfMC · Post by **CountOfMC** » Mon Feb 14, 2005 5:03 pm

How about... who cares anymore? The average person is going to use the 1.2% growth rate or whatever it's been.. i mean, why wouldn't he or she? To a lot of us Omaha enthusiasts, we have reason to speculate otherwise.. but until we hit 1M, let's put a sock in it. No one knows.. so until then, let's keep on rollin.

papiostud · Post by **papiostud** » Mon Feb 14, 2005 8:06 pm

Are cities like Birmingham, Alburqurque and Tulsa also just as crazed as us on getting to the ONE million pop? I'm sure the first two cities will be there by 2010.

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Predict the Year Metro Omaha Tops 1 Million.

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