Predict the Year Metro Omaha Tops 1 Million.

DMRyan · Post by **DMRyan** » Mon Feb 14, 2005 8:32 pm

Birmingham's metro already passed one million.

And doing some reading on the comparible Tulsa forum, the forumers defintely aren't as obsessed with getting over 1,000,000. In fact, you can tell that city is pretty down on its luck with the tone of many of the posts regarding development. Omaha is way ahead of the game and seems to have more civic pride than Tulsa, if these forums are any indication.

StreetsOfOmaha · Post by **StreetsOfOmaha** » Mon Feb 14, 2005 9:55 pm

I don't predict Albuquerque hitting 1 million by 2010. Sure they are growing a little faster, but they are still slightly smaller than us. I think we're both on track to remain "twins" and hit 1 million at about the same time.

Although, Omaha sets itself strides farther ahead of Albuquerque with the prospect of adding Lincoln to the Omaha Metro, and promoting it as one metro region. Santa Fe is slightly farther away from ABQ than is Lincoln from Omaha, and it's considerably smaller, only about 50,000 to 75,000.

And guess what...I digress...ABQ and Santa Fe are planning a commuter rail line connecting the cities!! Not just talking about it...planning it, with constrction set to start, if it hasn't already. Yes, that's right, two cities, both respectively smaller than Omaha and Lincoln, and farther apart, are building commuter rail.

OmahaRules · Post by **OmahaRules** » Tue Feb 15, 2005 12:06 am

Does the 1% we are talking about include the growth in Sarpy county? Because isn't that growing at around 10% or higher?

DMRyan · Post by **DMRyan** » Tue Feb 15, 2005 8:31 am

Sarpy County growing by 12,000 per year? That would double the population by 2010.

No.

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Tue Feb 15, 2005 9:12 am

DMRyan wrote: And doing some reading on the comparible Tulsa forum, the forumers defintely aren't as obsessed with getting over 1,000,000. In fact, you can tell that city is pretty down on its luck with the tone of many of the posts regarding development. Omaha is way ahead of the game and seems to have more civic pride than Tulsa, if these forums are any indication.

I think we're more obsessed because we know we've got more going on than Tulsa or ABQ. We have much more of a City reputation than they do.

KansasCityCraka · Post by **KansasCityCraka** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 2:10 pm

What's the site for the tulsa form?

Swift · Post by **Swift** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 3:03 pm

jhuston wrote:There is a difference... that's not it.

You see... I am content with what Omaha already has... and enthusiastically anticipate and greet all the new things which are coming. You are not content with what Omaha has... and are frustrated that those things I patiently anticipate... are not here today.

Aaron and I are pretty much in the same boat when it comes to our feelings about Omaha. For me it's more about I think that Omaha has great potential, we are headed in a really good an positive direction because of the good things we already have.

But going in a positive and very glorious direction has no pull for most people our age (early 20s). It is quite frustrating to see our friends (or often just hear them talk about how much they want to) move away because there is something they really want to do with their lives that they can't (or at least believe they can't) do in Omaha. I am an example: I want to stay in Omaha, but I want to study film and be with my girlfriend more (she was drawn to San Francisco because they have good grad-school programs for writing), so I am moving away this summer.

Young people percieve Omaha to be a really bad place for twenty somethings to be. For some reason, a lot of them feel like they're missing out on something. Now Aaron and I are both more well traveled than most of our peers, and we can attest that we aren't missing out on very much (the stuff we are missing out on is usually retail related). But as far as preventing the brain drain that is going on currently, we do need a series of grand developments that are targeted at that age group (the 3am last call is a good one, an aesthetically pleasing and functional light rail system would be another one, another sky scraper [visable from ALL parts of the city] would probably even be one).

This would help change a lot of twenty-somethings negative perceptions about Omaha. Because as awesome as condos are, they really are mostly a 35 and older thing.

guy4omaha · Post by **guy4omaha** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 3:41 pm

Swift,

I am sypathetic to your arguments about Omaha not being perceived as a happnin' place to be for twenty-somethings because, believe it or not, I used to be one. This goes for most of my friends as well.

And believe me, I would like to see a lot of these improvements all of you speak of come to fruition.

However, I also think it is sort of a natural phenomenon for people in their teens, twenties and sometimes well into their thirties to think their home part of the world, wherever it may be, is somehow lacking compared to the "really cool places" they dream of. This was true of me earlier in my life and also of almost all my friends. I have traveled a lot over the years and lived in some other places both large and small, both rural and urban. Young people in these places, to lump them into one group, almost always were dissing their home cities and communities. Though not as frequent as before, I still bump into young people from other places including some pretty marquee places and they tend to underrate their hometowns.

It just seems to be a natural phase we all go through. I don't know if there is enough money to be spent or improvements to be made that will keep young people from wanting to prove to themselves that the grass isn't greener or more exciting elsewhere.

I can't predict the future and I certainly don't know you and the intricacies of your personality. But I would not at all be surprised if what I think you described as your frustration with what you perceive to be lacking in Omaha doesn't temper a bit as you mature a few more years. In fact, (at least it has been this way for me) I wouldn't be surprised if you find yourself liking some of the things in your not too much older years that you despise now.

For example, I just used to hate Eppley because it seemed too slow and vacant and small, etc. I was embarrassed of it. I would travel elsewhere and enjoy all the hustle and bustle of those places and then have a severe feeling of letdown upon arriving back at Eppley. Now, I appreciate its efficiencies and space to move around.

I don't know if you could have convinced me of any of this change in perspective back when I was a twenty something. If you're like me and my former twenty-something friends, you will also come to appreciate more and more of what we have and from a different angle too. This is not to say that you don't appreciate what we have now. I know you do. But I think your appreciation will grow and broaden in the years to come. This is also not to say that we former twenty-somethings have stopped dreaming and scheming right along with you. But one finds as time goes on that a little patience is helpful and practical. It will come all in good time. Keep fighting the good fight but don't let the frustration make you bitter, sarcastic and less hopeful. Don't ever become satsfied necessarily, but take time as well to truly revel in the checkpoints of progress we are making.

We are on the right trendline. Sometimes a long, difficult journey is more appreciated that something that comes very easily.

Also as an aside, I love bringing "ignorant" people (ignorant about Omaha) into town and absolutely blowing their socks off by exceeding what they were expecting. I know it would be much better if Omaha had a better image but let's face it, this image thing is as old as the city itself. It's gonna take some MORE time. In the meantime, I like to have fun with it.

DMRyan · Post by **DMRyan** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 3:52 pm

KansasCityCraka wrote:What's the site for the tulsa form?

http://www.tulsanow.org/forum/

Guy, you bring a tear to my eye.

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 6:17 pm

Swift wrote:
jhuston wrote:, another sky scraper [visable from ALL parts of the city] would probably even be one).

If Omaha wasn't so damn hilly I think more people would think about DT. But it's kind of like out of sight, out of mind. To most people who aren't as in the know as we are skylines are what "makes" a city. That's not true, but there are so many perceptions that people have about other cities, like they have tall buildings or Pro sports or more expensive stores, that if it's not painfully obvious that they aren't going to realize what Omaha has to offer.

I always ask people that say Omaha is boring what they would do differant anywhere else. They usually don't have a clue but automatically assume that it will be better because it's not Omaha. People in Chicago do they exact same things as people do in Omaha or any other city. The size of the city means that there will be more and differant ways to do the exact same thing. My dad lived in Atlanta for the past 10 years thinking it would be better and came back saying that it alot of "bigger city" living was just hype. Omaha is a fantastic city but sometimes it's not jump out and grab you by the balls obvious. Once we start getting things like that people won't complain as much about Omaha.

edsas · Post by **edsas** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 6:36 pm

guy4omaha wrote:Swift,

For example, I just used to hate Eppley because it seemed too slow and vacant and small, etc. I was embarrassed of it. I would travel elsewhere and enjoy all the hustle and bustle of those places and then have a severe feeling of letdown upon arriving back at Eppley. Now, I appreciate its efficiencies and space to move around.

I hear ya, man. I was never embarassed of Eppley, but when I used to fly in and out of there (in my 20s) I always wished the airport was a little more impressive, I guess. Now that I've lived in metro Los Angeles for 6 years (and now that I'm in my 30s) I will do practically anything to avoid travelling in and out of LAX. Sometimes I have to because it typically has the best fares, but if I can help it, I'll fly out of Burbank -- which is a quaint 1950s era airport (and smaller than Eppley). But two weeks ago, my wife, my son and I flew to Denver to visit my wife's family in the panhandle. This time we flew in and out of Ontario, CA and my wife and I were both in awe of their airport because of how easy it was to navigate. And it's more modern than the Burbank airport, which is a big plus. But as we went through short security lines and got to our gate with ease, I said to my wife, "You know what this place reminds me of? Eppley."

So of all the airports to choose from in Southern California, the one I prefer to fly out of the most is the one most like Omaha's.

Swift · Post by **Swift** » Sun Feb 20, 2005 6:58 pm

I don't really have a problem with Eppley (other than a few aesthetic things and a lack of decent retail), I would mostly just like to see it be international and a connecting airport. I'm tired of having to fly to Denver before I get to my final destination.

edsas · Post by **edsas** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 2:29 am

Hey, I dug up this old thread from 2 years ago just to see how some of these predictions are panning out.

Now that we're just 3 years away from 2010, how do things look? Â Omaha is about 850,000 right now. 900,000 by 2010 is within reach. It still looks like 1 million won't happen until mid-next decade at the earliest.

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 10:32 am

I'm still expecting it will be 2020, if not beyond. Remember, a fair amount of the boost we've received to '850,000'... is resulting from the addition of more counties (including Fremont). And unfortunately, those counties aren't going to be contributing much towards that 1 million mark. It's going to be the 'Big 2' doing all the work. Can we add at a higher rate than 150,000 in 15 years? I guess we'll see.

edsas · Post by **edsas** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 11:37 am

Good points, Jeff. Although I wouldn't count Pottawatomie out as a potential grower soon. Council Bluffs is becoming more and more attractive. It could hit a renaissance in the next decade.

StreetsOfOmaha · Post by **StreetsOfOmaha** » Tue Jan 30, 2007 10:33 pm

I'd love to see the Iowa side of the metro take off. It's kind of weird to see how lopsided metro development has been when you look at a map. I mean, yes, obviously theres a state line...but it's not like you have to take a ferry to cross the river... Council Bluffs and Iowa are RIGHT THERE. I don't see why growth hasn't radiated outward evenly from Omaha's core.

Look at cities like Kansas City, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Philadelphia, etc. All cities with metros that directly span state borders with tons of growth in the neighboring states.

Anyway. I'm getting off topic.

I think it's within Omaha's capability to hit 1 million by 2010. Heck, we've got the Chamber of Commerce's support in that endeavor.

At the LATEST, THE LATEST, 2015.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 9:54 am

I've been saying this for 4 years now..If Omaha can maintain a growth clip of about 14%, the metro will hit that 1 million number by 2018..With the growth clip we've been experiencing thus far this decade, I believe 2018 to be a reasonable and pretty darn accurate prediction..

That said, once the official 2010 US Census numbers come out (by 2011), it will give us a MUCH better point of reference to base our predictions on..Remember, historically, the yearly US Census metro estimates I've been posting here every year TRADITIONALLY are low ball numbers..So once we see the official 2010 census count, our predictions may change in a fairly significant way..

Possibly sooner rather than later..

..

..Ciao..LiO....Peace

cdub · Post by **cdub** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 11:39 am

At this point we have no reason to believe that growth will continue at recent historic rates. Â Buying, building and platting have all slowed. Â It has been a recent change that may quickly reverse but I'd put my guess closer to 2020.

DTO Luv · Post by **DTO Luv** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 9:53 pm

You'd better look at St. Louis and Cincinnati again. They are just as lopsided as Omaha.

GaryFL · Post by **GaryFL** » Wed Jan 31, 2007 10:58 pm

Pedantic note: the US Census does not include Dodge County (Fremont) as part of the Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA Metropolitan Statistical Area. If the metro definition changes to include Dodge County, that alone will increase metro population by about 40,000 (2005 population: 36,078). This may be a large factor in when the metro "officially" reaches 1 million.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 10:23 am

cdub wrote:At this point we have no reason to believe that growth will continue at recent historic rates.

And at this point, we have no reason to believe the growth will slow either..And if we believe the Omaha Chamber of Commerce job growth numbers projected for 2007 (and posted for 2005,'06 etc), Omaha's growth could very well continue it's escalated pattern..And the slow down in residential building has slowed on a national level as well..In Omaha's case IMO, it's more for our metro to catch it's breath and 'digest it all' after a record 2005..Commercial building in metro Omaha is up at this time..Another strong indicator of a strong metro Omaha economy (and another fertile indicator for continued, escalated population growth)..

As I stated in my previous post, the official 2010 US Census numbers will be a great indicator of the 'when' as it relates to predicting the year metro Omaha grows to that 1 million magic number..And again, traditionally, the current US Census estimates are much more conservative in nature..

Of course GaryFL is correct too..If Dodge county, currently included in Omaha's CSA, gets included in Omaha's MSA (as defined by the US Census Bureau), then Metro Omaha would add some 37,000 residents into the mix..Although at this time, CSA numbers are gaining more and more momentum every year as a more solid and legitimate greater 'area' population number..And used more and more nationally by local city metro Chambers of Commerce as the actual 'area' population number..For 2005. Omaha's CSA was 850,000..MSA: 813,170..I expect those numbers to climb to 861,000/824,000 when the 2006 estimates come out this March..

..Ciao..LiO....Peace

edsas · Post by **edsas** » Thu Feb 01, 2007 12:25 pm

It would be interesting to see a chart of how many years it took all the US metros to reach one million, then two million and so on and so forth.

Post by **Coyote** » Fri Apr 27, 2007 11:04 am

Proximity MetroDynamics just came out with their MSA ranking table with projections to 2020.
http://proximityone.com/msa06rnk.htm

Omaha - Pop 7/1/00: Â 769,150
Omaha - Pop 7/1/06: Â 822,849
Omaha - %change06: Â Â Â 6.94

Omaha - Pop 7/1/20: Â 953,200
Omaha - %change20: Â Â 19.31

TitosBuritoBarn · Post by **TitosBuritoBarn** » Sat Apr 28, 2007 12:54 am

Some of the figures on that site are a little scary. 7,000,000 people in Atlanta? Barf... Almost 3,000,000 people in Vegas? Yikes...

papiostud · Post by **papiostud** » Sat Apr 28, 2007 1:03 am

Well if global warming pans out like they're forecasting...maybe people will start heading north by then? :-) Â I still say by 2015.

papiostud · Post by **papiostud** » Sat Apr 28, 2007 1:03 am

And inland.

StreetsOfOmaha · Post by **StreetsOfOmaha** » Tue May 01, 2007 1:46 am

I still say by 2010.

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Tue May 01, 2007 9:01 am

You can announce it at your inauguration at city hall.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue May 01, 2007 9:47 am

Omaha's 1 million mark..

CSA by 2015..MSA by 2018..

Ciao..

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Tue May 01, 2007 12:56 pm

I still think it will be at least 2020. Â I think Proximity MetroDynamics may be right on the money.

Has anyone determined what our population growth has been... minus the new counties added since 2000?

edsas · Post by **edsas** » Tue May 01, 2007 4:13 pm

Stargazer wrote:
Has anyone determined what our population growth has been... minus the new counties added since 2000?

Population gains 2000-2006

Douglas County: +28,418
Sarpy County: +20,042
Pottawattamie County: + 2,514
Cass County: +1,629
Washington County: +1,264

Total net gain for original five metro counties: Â +53,867

edsas · Post by **edsas** » Tue May 01, 2007 4:20 pm

Incidentally, the numbers for the other counties are:

Mills County: 1,048
Saunders County: 514
Harrison County: 79
Dodge County: 11

So all current metro counties weighed in with a gain of 55,508.

Add in Dodge County's whopping 11-person gain and the CMSA counties grew by a combined 55,519.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Tue May 01, 2007 10:35 pm

Coyote wrote:Proximity MetroDynamics just came out with their MSA ranking table with projections to 2020.
http://proximityone.com/msa06rnk.htm

Omaha - Pop 7/1/00: 769,150
Omaha - Pop 7/1/06: 822,849
Omaha - %change06: 6.94

Omaha - Pop 7/1/20: 953,200
Omaha - %change20: 19.31

This web site also has Des Moines growing at a faster rate (26%) than metro Denver (23%). Â Yeah, right....

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Tue May 01, 2007 10:44 pm

It wouldn't surprise me at all of Des Moines grew by 26% (23% by the way... is still a considerable amount of growth, especially considering the size of Denver... and cost of housing!)... consider that Iowa has one of the largest rural populations in the nation. Â Over the coming years, the trend will continue to be for those people to migrate to larger cities. For Iowans of course... that is Des Moines. Â I'm sure Omaha will pick up a few of them as well. Â But for smaller Des Moines... this translates into a larger -percentage- of growth.

StreetsOfOmaha · Post by **StreetsOfOmaha** » Tue May 01, 2007 11:49 pm

And, of course, it's important to keep in mind that 26% of DM's population is not the same as 26% of Omaha's population. Â Obviously.

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Wed May 02, 2007 12:14 am

True, although this decade we may find that Des Moines' higher rate of growth ends up giving them higher numeric growth as well. Â If that's of concern to anyone.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed May 02, 2007 8:52 am

One thing to keep in mind, is that Proximity bases its population assumptions on the current US Census population estimates..Those estimates are famous for their conservative low ball nature..

I fully expect, when the 2010 official census figures are compiled and released, that Omaha's growth rate (for example) will be anywhere from 1% to 2% higher than its current 'estimate' track..Thus, I believe my CSA 2015 and MSA 2018 for 1 million predictions to be pretty much right on the money..

Like I've said before, we shall see..

Ciao..

SurfOmaha · Post by **SurfOmaha** » Sat Feb 02, 2008 4:59 am

All the Omaha Metro needs to do to reach the 1 million mark is to find the economics to get Lincoln and Omaha classified as a Consolidated Metro Area, which is very, very possible at this point. Â I'm not sure what the stats are but Lincoln is just a few percentage points away from being considered part of a larger Metro, Dodge County is even closer. Â According to the Omaha Chamber of Commerce website the Omaha area has 1.2 million people within a 50 mile radius of Omaha, that includes a population not included in Omaha's Metro. Â Guess where the bulk of those people live? Â The Lincoln Metro! Â All Omaha and Lincoln need to do, is to figure out a way to help develop the corridor around I-80 between Omaha and Lincoln. Â Its very possible and do-able! Â We need to encourage economic development in that I-80 corridor, WHAM-O Â instant whatever benefits that gets us! Â And that really could happen within the next five years. Â What could've helped the growth within that corridor in past ten years, Â hmmmm NASCAR we lost, Disney, a theme park, we lost all that, but we can still get something to develop there! Â Its between 2 mid-sized Metros for godsakes!!!!! Â Â :lol

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Predict the Year Metro Omaha Tops 1 Million.

Predict the year Metro Omaha tops 1 million