Jeffrey Robb and Paul Goodsell
WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITERS wrote:The Omaha metro area has grown over the last decade at a healthy rate, but the city itself has captured little of that gain.
New population numbers from the 2010 Census show an official tally of 865,350 people in the eight-county metro area.
According to local population figures delivered Tuesday to Nebraska state leaders, the Omaha metro has grown by just under 100,000 people. That equates to a steady annual growth rate of 1.3 percent.
So is the story stating that Omaha's 2010 population is just 408,958? Â If so, that seems hard to believe with all the growth going on and considering the last estimate was over 454,000.
skinzfan23 wrote:So is the story stating that Omaha's 2010 population is just 408,958? If so, that seems hard to believe with all the growth going on and considering the last estimate was over 454,000.
The last couple of mayors didn't annex a whole lot during the 2000s (only a few areas besides the city of Elkhorn). I remember when Daub was mayor that he would annex a bunch of divisions during the 1990s. Omaha did grow by a lot, and a little more than expected. There's just a bunch of new subdivisions that have yet to be annexed. Douglas County gained 53,525
and Sarpy gained 36,245 with the metro gaining nearly 98,000 people. Sarpy County is in the same boat as the communities there must not have don a lot of annexing.
So the 2000s was about substantial growth and little annexing.
Omaha MSA[A]
Omaha 2000 Â 767,041
Omaha 2010 Â 865,350
growth of   +98,309
growth rate  +12.8%
compared to national average rate[1] 133.5%
compared to state growth rate[3] 191.8%
A low, but noth slight underestimate from 2009 estimate as US Census had Omaha at 849,517.
Omaha MSA[A] Nebraska side only
Omaha 2000 Â 649,124
Omaha 2010 Â 742,205
growth of   +93,081 (Percent of state growth: 80.89%)
growth rate  +14.4%
compared to the national averate rate[1] 149.4%
compared to the state growth rate[3] 215%
Omaha cSA
Omaha 2000 Â 803,201
Omaha 2010 Â 902,041
growth of   +98,840
growth rate  +12.3%
compared to national average rate[1] 128.2%
compared to state growth rate[3] 183.6%
A low, but not slight understimate from 2009 as the US Census had the Omaha CSA at 885,677.
Omaha cSA Nebraska side only
Omaha 2000 Â 685,284
Omaha 2010 Â 778,896
growth of   +93,612 (Percent of state growth: 81.3%)
growth rate  +13.7%
compared to national average rate[1] 142.3%
compared to state average rate[3] 204.5%
-------------------------------
Lincoln MSA[C]
Lincoln 2000 266,787
Lincoln 2010 302,157
growth of   +35,370 (Percent of state growth: 30.7%)
growth rate  +13.3%
compared to national average rate[1] 138.1%
compared to state growth rate[3] 198.5%
2009 estimate was 298,012
US Department of the census was very close to target for Lincoln.
Lincoln CSA [D]
N/A
-------------------------------
Omaha/Lincoln Eventual MSA[E]
Combined 2000 1,069,988
Combined 2010 1,204,198
growth of    +134,210
growth rate    +12.6%
compared to national average rate[1] 130.7%
compared to state growth rate[3] 188.1%
Omaha/Lincoln Eventual MSA[E] - Nebraska side only
Combined 2000 Â 952,071
Combined 2010 1,081,053
growth of    +128,982 (Percent of state growth: 112.1%)
growth rate    +13.6%
compared to national average rate[1] 141.1%
compared to state growth rate[3] 203.0%
----------------------------------------
County      2000   2010   Growth  Rate  2009 Est
Douglas County 463,585 517,110 +53,525 +11.5% Â 510,199[Close]
Lancaster    250,291 285,407 +35,116 +14.0%  281,531[Close]
Sarpy County  122,595 158,840 +36,245 +29.6%  153,504[Low]
Hall County   53,534  58,607 + 5,073  +9.5%   57,487[Low]
Buffalo County  42,259 46 102 3,843 +9.1%   45,814[Close]
Scotts Bluff   36,951 36 970   19 +0.1%   36,865[Close]
Dodge County   36,160 36 691  531 +1.5%   35,640[Too Low]
Lincoln County  34,632 36 288 1,656 +4.8%   35,670[Low]
Madison County  35,226 34 876 -  350 -1.0%   34,505[Close]
Platte County  31,662 32 237  575 +1.8%   32,515[High]
Adams County   31,151 31 364  213 +0.7%   33,324[Too High]
Cass County   24,334 25 241  907 +3.7%   25,485[High]
Dawson County  24,365 24 326 -  39 -0.2%   25,076[High]
Gage County   22,993 22 311 -  682 -3.0%   22,653[High]
Dakota County  20,253 21 006  753 +3.7%   20,651[Low]
Saunders County 19,830 20 780 Â 950 +4.8% Â Â 20,057[Low]
Washington    18,780 20 234 1,454 +7.7%   19,718[Low]
Seward County  16,496 16 750  254 +1.5%   16,481[Low]
Otoe County   15,396 15 740  344 +2.2%   15,214[Too Low]
Saline County  13,843 14 200  357 +2.6%   13,872[Too Low]
Omaha city   390,007 408,958 18,951 +4.9%  454,731[Way, Way, Way, Way High][F]
Lincoln city  225,581 258,379 32,798 +14.5%  254,001[Close]
Bellevue city  44,382 50,137 5,755 +13.0%   51,044[Way too High][F]
Grand Island   42,940 48,520 5,580 +13.0%   46,861[Way too low]
Kearney city   27,431 30,787 3,356 +12.2%   30,744[Close]
Fremont city   25,174 26,397 1,223 +4.9%   25,007[Way too Low]
Hastings city  24,064 24,907  843 +3.5%   25,370[Way too High]
North Platte   23,878 24,733  855 +3.6%   24,137[Too Low]
Norfolk city   23,516 24,210  694 +3.0%   23,272[Way too Low]
Columbus city  20,971 22,111 1,140 +5.4%   21,914[Close]
Papillion city  16,363 18,894 2,531 +15.5%   24,280[Way, Way, Way, Way High][F]
La Vista city  11,699 15,758 4,059 +34.7%   16,887[Way too High][F]
Scottsbluff   14,732 15,039  307 +2.1%   14,886[Too Low]
South Sioux   11,925 13,353 1,428 +12.0%   12,213[Way too Low]
Beatrice city  12,496 12,459 -  37 -0.3%   12,564[Close]
Lexington city  10,011 10,230  219 +2.2%   10,275[Close]
Gering city    7,751 8,500  749 +9.7%   7,738[Way too Low]
Alliance city   8,959 8,491 -  468 -5.2%   8,002[Way too Low]
Blair city    7,512 7,990  478 +6.4%   7,700[Too Low]
York city     8,081 7,766 -  315 -3.9%   7,638[Low]
[A]OMB has defined[2] the Omaha MSA as: Douglas, Ne; Sarpy, Ne; Washington, Ne; Saunders, Ne; Cass, Ne; Pottawattamie, IA; Mills, IA; Harrison, IA OMB has defined[2] the Omaha CSA as it's MSA plus Dodge County (Fremont). Â In 2013, this will be upgraded to an MSA as well more than 25% of Dodge County residents travel to Douglas County for work[3].
[C]OMB has defined[2] the Lincoln MSA as: Lancaster, NE; Seward, NE
[D]OMB did not define[2] the Lincoln MSA as a CSA with another county.
[E]OMB has NOT defined Omaha - Lincoln as a single MSA at this time. I am including the Omaha CSA as Dodge County will in-fact be included in 2013. There are strong arguments pointing to this happening in 2013 or 2023 because the worker commuter rates in two Omaha MSA counties (Saunders and Cass) have surpassed CSA and MSA levels with Lincoln.
[F]One of two things happened with the Omaha area cities being vastly over-estimated. Â Since the counties they reside in grew faster than expected, they either: Used the old boundaries from 2000 or these communities didn't annex the many new subdivisions in the area.
[1]National average rate: 9.7%
[2]OMB (Office of Management and Budget) is a US level entity that defines the criteria for an MSA and CSA. Â For a county to be part of an MSA it must have 25% commuter rate of its work force travel to an adjacent county (that is part of an MSA). Â A CSA requires a 15% worker commuter rate. Â The definitions are updated every ten years with the last finished in 2003 and another coming soon in 2013.
[3]The Nebraska Department of Labor website had shown the commuter rate increased from 23% to 26% by 2006.
So the Omaha MSA should crack 900,000 by mid-decade? Â When you add Dodge county in 2013 like you mentioned plus normal growth that seems reasonable. Â A million isn't all that far off.
iamjacobm wrote:So the Omaha MSA should crack 900,000 by mid-decade? When you add Dodge county in 2013 like you mentioned plus normal growth that seems reasonable. A million isn't all that far off.
Omaha-Fremont right now is past the 900,000 mark. Â Dodge county will be added in 2013 as the commute numbers provided by the Nebraska department of Labor indicate the commuter threshold surpassing the 25% requirement in 2006 (three years after 2003 definitions came out). Â I expect Dodge to be added in 2013.
There is a real possibility of the Omaha MSA passing 1,000,000 by 2020, and 1,350,000 with Lincoln.
Thanks! Â It obviously doesn't make life any different once the million mark is reached, but it will be cool to be considered a city with a million.
I hope Omaha gets going on annexing some outlying suburbs left in Douglas county to add to the city proper. Â I was a little disappointed by the numbers there. Â Omaha's metro(excluding Omaha) now out numbers Omaha itself.
So correct me if my interpretation of this is incorrect:
If the MSA included Dodge Co this year, the metro population would have been 902,041, which would have allowed us to show a 17.6% MSA growth rate since 2000?
OmahaJaysCU wrote:So correct me if my interpretation of this is incorrect:
If the MSA included Dodge Co this year, the metro population would have been 902,041, which would have allowed us to show a 17.6% MSA growth rate since 2000?
(aren't statistics fun? )
That is something that is difficult to really define. Â On one hand, Dodge County grew only 1.5% during the 2000s; on another the fact it was not a part of it can make an argument that Omaha reaches more people now than it did 10 years ago. Â I usually go by true growth, but it is valid to say we are growing horizontally into other counties which weren't affected by Omaha at one time.
iamjacobm wrote:Thanks! It obviously doesn't make life any different once the million mark is reached, but it will be cool to be considered a city with a million.
I hope Omaha gets going on annexing some outlying suburbs left in Douglas county to add to the city proper. I was a little disappointed by the numbers there. Omaha's metro(excluding Omaha) now out numbers Omaha itself.
That could be a good thing? Look at san fran: 800k (ish) city, 4.3 million metro. Food for thought
iamjacobm wrote:Thanks! It obviously doesn't make life any different once the million mark is reached, but it will be cool to be considered a city with a million.
I hope Omaha gets going on annexing some outlying suburbs left in Douglas county to add to the city proper. I was a little disappointed by the numbers there. Omaha's metro(excluding Omaha) now out numbers Omaha itself.
That could be a good thing? Look at san fran: 800k (ish) city, 4.3 million metro. Food for thought
Well most every very large city is like that I would assume. Â That part was more of just an observation. Â I just wouldn't mind seeing all of Douglas in Omaha though, I mean it's there for the taking might as well include it in the city proper. Â I don't think the city needs to start annexing over county lines tho.
A couple of thoughts on these numbers...Omaha and Lincoln MSAs both showed strong growth, particularly (actually exclusively) in the 3 core counties. Â The outlying counties as a whole did poorly in growth numbers.
For all intents and purposes these 2 MSAs had 100% of the growth experienced by the entire State of Nebraska. Â This means that Omaha and Lincoln have about 1,044,000 of Nebraska's 1,826,000 people. Â That's about 57% of the state's population. Â That will entitle the 2 metros to 28 of Nebraska's 49 state senators in the Unicameral. Â That puts the metros in the driver's seat in the Unicam come 2013. Â Of course the metro senators seldom vote as a block, but when they do they will carry the day.
The other 90 Nebraska counties (except Douglas, Sarpy and Lancaster) are more or less spinning their wheels, not gaining in population. Â The core metro areas are in effect subsidizing the other 90 counties, as our taxpayer base continues to grow while the rest of the state languishes.
Expect these trends to continue for decades to come, as the trend has been going on for about 80 years now.
If it weren't for non white Nebraskans, the state's population would have grown by only 2.6% and we would have lost a congressional seat. Â Whites still make up 86% of the state's population. Â (Hispanics can be white or any other race or mix of races. Â About 91% of Nebraskans are non Hispanic.))
iamjacobm wrote:Thanks! It obviously doesn't make life any different once the million mark is reached, but it will be cool to be considered a city with a million.
I hope Omaha gets going on annexing some outlying suburbs left in Douglas county to add to the city proper. I was a little disappointed by the numbers there. Omaha's metro(excluding Omaha) now out numbers Omaha itself.
That could be a good thing? Look at san fran: 800k (ish) city, 4.3 million metro. Food for thought
Well most every very large city is like that I would assume. That part was more of just an observation. I just wouldn't mind seeing all of Douglas in Omaha though, I mean it's there for the taking might as well include it in the city proper. I don't think the city needs to start annexing over county lines tho.
State law prohibits any city from annexing any lands that are agricultural, or from annexing any urbanized areas that are separated from Omaha by agricultural land.
A couple interesting things from the Grow Omaha guys this morning on KFAB. They said that Omaha's population figures are going to get a second look to make sure that they used the correct city limit boundaries when counting the population.
And in regards to annexation, I live in an area that is surrounded by annexed neighborhoods, yet my SID goes un-annexed. I know it has to do with the amount of debt that an SID carries, but my neighborhood is nearly full, and I think that there are a lot of areas like that, especially in Douglas county, that could easily be annexed within the next few years. It just depends on the willingness of city leaders to do so.
It was also mentioned, that whether or not an area gets annexed can be political - i.e. - current city leaders not wanting to annex an area where the majority of residents might lean toward the other political party. If this is happening, it is ridiculous; but I would not be surprised.
Fromaha wrote:It was also mentioned, that whether or not an area gets annexed can be political - i.e. - current city leaders not wanting to annex an area where the majority of residents might lean toward the other political party. If this is happening, it is ridiculous; but I would not be surprised.
What!? Are suggesting that politics in this town are held above the good of the city?? Blasphemy.
I don't believe that is the reason. Â The city looks at SID debt, and when the numbers are favorable the SID is likely annexed, Â but not until then. Â Elkhorn was an exception because Omaha's hand was forced by the city of Elkhorn, and the city had to annex some SIDs in between so that they could then reach out to Elkhorn. Â
Omaha's city population will continue to grow, unlike almost every other city in the top 50. Â
I don't think what Omaha's city population is really matters. Â Businesses look to the entire MSA. Â Des Moines has a tiny city population, much smaller than Lincoln. Â It is not really growing, and hasn't for decades, but the DSM MSA is growing by leaps and bounds. Â That is what matters. Â The same is true with Minneapolis and St. Paul. Â Their core cities aren't growing much, if at all, but the MSP MSA is growing very fast compared with other MSAs in the Midwest. Â Anyone who has been to Minneapolis lately can see that while the city population is similar to Omaha's, that is where the similarity in the 2 cities ends.
Are there any other "core" cities (for lack of a better term) in the top 50 metros that are allowed the luxury of Omaha's annexation method? Â Every city I can think of is already done expanding geographically due to city, county, or state borders, with literally zero options.
It's an inevitability for Omaha when it finally annexes or merges with Douglas County.
Big E wrote:Are there any other "core" cities (for lack of a better term) in the top 50 metros that are allowed the luxury of Omaha's annexation method? Every city I can think of is already done expanding geographically due to city, county, or state borders, with literally zero options.
It's an inevitability for Omaha when it finally annexes or merges with Douglas County.
I think most of the Texas cities have that Ability, and Oklahoma city is gigantic! 621 sq miles compared to Omaha's 118.
Fromaha wrote:It was also mentioned, that whether or not an area gets annexed can be political - i.e. - current city leaders not wanting to annex an area where the majority of residents might lean toward the other political party. If this is happening, it is ridiculous; but I would not be surprised.
That is a right wing conspiracy out there. Â Some "leaders" have claimed they have gone to both Fahey and Suttle with data showing the fiscal gains from annexing certain areas to no avail. Â They claim it is because Omaha is so split politically that this action could cause too much of a gain for Republicans. Â I don't know what, if any, is true, but it would be interesting to find out.
Fromaha wrote:It was also mentioned, that whether or not an area gets annexed can be political - i.e. - current city leaders not wanting to annex an area where the majority of residents might lean toward the other political party. If this is happening, it is ridiculous; but I would not be surprised.
That is a right wing conspiracy out there. Some "leaders" have claimed they have gone to both Fahey and Suttle with data showing the fiscal gains from annexing certain areas to no avail. They claim it is because Omaha is so split politically that this action could cause too much of a gain for Republicans. I don't know what, if any, is true, but it would be interesting to find out.
The fact is that Omaha or any other city can annex as much as possible and it still won't cause a redrawing of city council districts for another 10 years (until years ending in "1"). Â The newly annexed areas will be placed in the district that was already next to them. Â But there is no redrawing of the districts citywide, so really no party is likely to garner an advantage. Â And you will note that as the population expands westward the constituencies that were to the east expand westward too.
It's hard to believe that Lancaster county had the third highest raw growth in the state. I never would have thought that Sarpy County (or any other besides Douglas) would actually outgain Lincoln. We all know why, but still.
Omaha continuous core counties:
Douglas County 463,585 517,110 +53,525 +11.5%
Pottawattamie County 87,704 93,158 +5,454 Â +6.2%
Sarpy County 122,595 158,840 +36,245 +29.6%
Total Core Area 673,884 769,108 +95,224 +14.1%
Omaha continuous core counties - Nebraska side only:
Douglas County 463,585 517,110 +53,525 +11.5%
Sarpy County 122,595 158,840 +36,245 +29.6%
Total - Nebraska 586,180 675,950 +89,770 +15.3%
