Omaha Forums

Good day friends..

In about 3 weeks, the US Census will be releasing the latest (2016) metro/CSA population estimates..

Last year, Omaha reached 915,312 metro and 952,018 CSA (the CSA adds Dodge county into the number)..

What's your prediction? I'm going with 926,500 metro and 963,300 CSA...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Can't wait!

My prediction: 926,425 metro; 964,675.

Metro: 930,246, CSA: 967,500

I wonder when the CSA will reach the big million.

I hope both of you are more right than me ..

Keep the predictions coming!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

symphie wrote:I wonder when the CSA will reach the big million.

I think the CSA number will hit 1 million 4 years from now- 2021 (I'll keep my fingers crossed for 3 though )..

And- Welcome to the forum! ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Just to compare with City of Omaha:

2015 - 443,885
2014 - 442,316
2013 - 440,870
2012 - 438,188
2011 - 435,178
2010 - 432,003

Coyote wrote:Just to compare with City of Omaha:

2015 - 443,885
2014 - 442,316
2013 - 440,870
2012 - 438,188
2011 - 435,178
2010 - 432,003

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

There is a lot of development going on in the area right now, hopefully this leads to a decent jump in our growth rate!

925,381 and 962,490

Just for fun, here is the Omaha CSA

2015 - 952,018 +10,853
2014 - 941,165 +8,975
2013 - 932,190 +9,813
2012 - 922,377 +8,419
2011 - 913,958 +9,144
2010 - 904,814 ~9440.8

So I am guessing
2016 - 961,459
2017 - 970,900
2018 - 980,341
2019 - 989,782
2020 - 999,223
2021 - 1,008,664

Coyote wrote:Just for fun, here is the Omaha CSA

2015 - 952,018 +10,853
2014 - 941,165 +8,975
2013 - 932,190 +9,813
2012 - 922,377 +8,419
2011 - 913,958 +9,144
2010 - 904,814 ~9440.8

So I am guessing
2016 - 961,459
2017 - 970,900
2018 - 980,341
2019 - 989,782
2020 - 999,223
2021 - 1,008,664

Barring any recession I calculated it with a minor inflation and inertia factor to just barely pass 1 million by 2020.

Coyote wrote:Just for fun, here is the Omaha CSA

2015 - 952,018 +10,853
2014 - 941,165 +8,975
2013 - 932,190 +9,813
2012 - 922,377 +8,419
2011 - 913,958 +9,144
2010 - 904,814 ~9440.8

So I am guessing
2016 - 961,459
2017 - 970,900
2018 - 980,341
2019 - 989,782
2020 - 999,223
2021 - 1,008,664

I think for 2016 and on you will see a dip. Omaha lost CONAgra and the OPPD nuclear power plant. Also, Gavilon and UP laid off several workers. I would also take into account the Trump war on immigrants, legal and illegal. Nebraska took in more refugees per capita than any other state.

MTO wrote:

Coyote wrote:Just for fun, here is the Omaha CSA

2015 - 952,018 +10,853
2014 - 941,165 +8,975
2013 - 932,190 +9,813
2012 - 922,377 +8,419
2011 - 913,958 +9,144
2010 - 904,814 ~9440.8

So I am guessing
2016 - 961,459
2017 - 970,900
2018 - 980,341
2019 - 989,782
2020 - 999,223
2021 - 1,008,664

Barring any recession I calculated it with a minor inflation and inertia factor to just barely pass 1 million by 2020.

It's either going to be 2020 or 2021..

I hope it's 2020 as it would reflect in the official US Census numbers as opposed to the annual estimate ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Im sure we lost a few families from the 300 jobs to Chicago, 1000 more being offsored. However, the city is under an unending predictament of more skilled labor demand than supply. The comments here brought out a bit of curiousity out of me. So I decided to check th monthly chamber jobs and labor numbers.

We did more than absorb the losses. The total non-farm employment surpassed 500k for the first time. From 497 to 502 for a below average 1.1% annual job growth rate. Broken down categories appear to show either a range of stalemate to increase of positions in all categories. That said, we were lucky because the impact would have been much worse only five years ago.

Our city and state must stay diligent and not take anything for granted. Because chance had it that the hit occurred during a very healthy economy with a bunch of new positions opening across the city.

I know most of their IT personell left much sooner than anticipated which caused Conagra some major transition complications. One of which was my bother, he is making more now than he was then. And the new job isnt nearly as delusionally complicated and short staffed.

I'm going to submit my traditional estimate of...... 1 PERSON!!!!!!

On a more serious note.... 927,812 and 965,018

Erik wrote:We did more than absorb the losses. The total non-farm employment surpassed 500k for the first time. From 497 to 502 for a below average 1.1% annual job growth rate. Broken down categories appear to show either a range of stalemate to increase of positions in all categories. That said, we were lucky because the impact would have been much worse only five years ago.

Our city and state must stay diligent and not take anything for granted. Because chance had it that the hit occurred during a very healthy economy with a bunch of new positions opening across the city.

Omaha's economy is very diverse and is not as reliant on a ConAgra holding true to its Omaha roots today, as opposed to 1988 when the state catered to their every whim to keep them here..

Omaha indeed absorbed the loss..and then some. Omaha has been steadily adding jobs each year this decade. It'd be great if this would accelerate, but the reality is, it's been steady as she goes. I look for Omaha to at least maintain its current growth rate through the end of the decade..

You make a good point that if ConAgra was going to drop Omaha like a hot potato, it's better that they did it during a very healthy economic time...

Keep those predictions coming!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Need to remember that Treehouse Foods bought their generic brand division and opened an office in Old Mill. While not a 1-1 replacement it did allow a decent number of people to slide into a new job pretty quickly.

It was more than just CONAgra. It was Gavilon, UP, Gordmans, OPPD, Werner, Valmont and West Corp. Big companies had layoffs and slumping profits. Agriculture is really hurting also. And again, people don't move to Nebraska. Nebraska counts on birth rates and immigrants to grow its population. And immigration is going to be non-existent for the next four years. Or negative, people are fleeing to Canada.

choke wrote:It was more than just CONAgra. It was Gavilon, UP, Gordmans, OPPD, Werner, Valmont and West Corp. Big companies had layoffs and slumping profits. Agriculture is really hurting also. And again, people don't move to Nebraska. Nebraska counts on birth rates and immigrants to grow its population. And immigration is going to be non-existent for the next four years. Or negative, people are fleeing to Canada.

Yet Omaha, amid all of this you mention, has continued to grow jobs each year this decade..and the population growth reflects this in the annual US Census estimates. I don't see this trend reversing anytime soon.. Omaha has a diversified economy.. Which means it can play left handed or right handed, absorb a multiple company layoff and or ConAgra loss, and continue its healthy growth and economy. Omaha is an attractive place to live and set up life long roots.. there is much opportunity. The milinnial population recognizes this as Omaha has become a popular place to consider a career move. In other words, the trends we are seeing bely your "cup half empty" proclamation..

Time will tell. Perhaps you're right.. and Omaha will become the stagnant, growth stunted metropolis you predict it will become for the next 5-7 years. We'll start to see soon, one way or the other, as the 2016 estimates will come out in less than 3 weeks...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Garrett wrote:I'm going to submit my traditional estimate of...... 1 PERSON!!!!!!

2 people, Drew!


--

But actually, 917,000 and 964,000.

choke wrote:It was more than just CONAgra. It was Gavilon, UP, Gordmans, OPPD, Werner, Valmont and West Corp. Big companies had layoffs and slumping profits. Agriculture is really hurting also. And again, people don't move to Nebraska. Nebraska counts on birth rates and immigrants to grow its population. And immigration is going to be non-existent for the next four years. Or negative, people are fleeing to Canada.

Oh horse hockey. The illegal aliens will only respect a show of force and without that wall they will still be pouring in here in droves. Right now all this tough talk from Trump with no sign of real enforcement or the wall is only going to embolden the Illegals to storm into the country more then ever.

GRANDPASMUCKER wrote:

choke wrote:It was more than just CONAgra. It was Gavilon, UP, Gordmans, OPPD, Werner, Valmont and West Corp. Big companies had layoffs and slumping profits. Agriculture is really hurting also. And again, people don't move to Nebraska. Nebraska counts on birth rates and immigrants to grow its population. And immigration is going to be non-existent for the next four years. Or negative, people are fleeing to Canada.

Oh horse hockey. The illegal aliens will only respect a show of force and without that wall they will still be pouring in here in droves. Right now all this tough talk from Trump with no sign of real enforcement or the wall is only going to embolden the Illegals to storm into the country more then ever.

I said immigration (refugees) and not illegal immigration. Numbers have turned on immigration from the south. More Latinos/Hispanics are now born in Nebraska than the number that immigrate here. Not that it is a big deal. I find Hispanics/Latinos to be very nice people. And their food is good.

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:

Garrett wrote:I'm going to submit my traditional estimate of...... 1 PERSON!!!!!!

2 people, Drew!


--

But actually, 917,000 and 964,000.

Did you mean 927,000 for the metro? ...

CiO..LiO...Peace

Omaha Cowboy wrote:

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:

Garrett wrote:I'm going to submit my traditional estimate of...... 1 PERSON!!!!!!

2 people, Drew!


--

But actually, 917,000 and 964,000.

Did you mean 927,000 for the metro? ...

CiO..LiO...Peace

That I did good sir. That I did.

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:

Omaha Cowboy wrote:

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:

Garrett wrote:I'm going to submit my traditional estimate of...... 1 PERSON!!!!!!

2 people, Drew!


--

But actually, 917,000 and 964,000.

Did you mean 927,000 for the metro? ...

CiO..LiO...Peace

That I did good sir. That I did.

Perfect. That's what I thought and I hope you're right ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Could someone explain why Dodge is included in some of these statistics and in others it is not? Also, what counties are in with Omaha in the main statistic?

bigredmed wrote:Could someone explain why Dodge is included in some of these statistics and in others it is not? Also, what counties are in with Omaha in the main statistic?

Dodge county is part of the combined statistical area(CSA), but not the Metropolitan Statistical area (MSA). The MSA is Douglas, Sarpy, Cass, Saunders, and Washington counties in Nebraska, gplus Pottawattomie, Mills, and Harrison in Iowa. They're defined by social and economic links, with CSAs generally being multiple MSAs/ or micropolitan areas, like Dodge county.

Garrett wrote:

bigredmed wrote:Could someone explain why Dodge is included in some of these statistics and in others it is not? Also, what counties are in with Omaha in the main statistic?

Dodge county is part of the combined statistical area(CSA), but not the Metropolitan Statistical area (MSA). The MSA is Douglas, Sarpy, Cass, Saunders, and Washington counties in Nebraska, gplus Pottawattomie, Mills, and Harrison in Iowa. They're defined by social and economic links, with CSAs generally being multiple MSAs/ or micropolitan areas, like Dodge county.

Thanks. How did these counties get added (Saunders and Cass seem as far removed from Omaha as Dodge)?

bigredmed wrote:

Garrett wrote:

bigredmed wrote:Could someone explain why Dodge is included in some of these statistics and in others it is not? Also, what counties are in with Omaha in the main statistic?

Dodge county is part of the combined statistical area(CSA), but not the Metropolitan Statistical area (MSA). The MSA is Douglas, Sarpy, Cass, Saunders, and Washington counties in Nebraska, gplus Pottawattomie, Mills, and Harrison in Iowa. They're defined by social and economic links, with CSAs generally being multiple MSAs/ or micropolitan areas, like Dodge county.

Thanks. How did these counties get added (Saunders and Cass seem as far removed from Omaha as Dodge)?

The US Census, shortly after the official 2000 Census, I believe in 2003, redefined many metro areas, including Omaha, where 3 additional counties were added- Saunders in Nebraska and Mills/Harrison in Iowa. As Garrett stated, social/economic factors are included in the decision to add counties to a metro (MSA) or CSA.. one specific one, is the number of residents who commute to the core city/county in the metro/CSA from a particular county not included in that metro.. Once a level of commute % is attained (I believe the number to be 15%), the county is typically eligible to be added, at the discretion of the US Census Bureau..

This is my own words variant to help answer your question ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Thanks

bigredmed wrote:Thanks

You're welcome ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

GRANDPASMUCKER wrote:

choke wrote:It was more than just CONAgra. It was Gavilon, UP, Gordmans, OPPD, Werner, Valmont and West Corp. Big companies had layoffs and slumping profits. Agriculture is really hurting also. And again, people don't move to Nebraska. Nebraska counts on birth rates and immigrants to grow its population. And immigration is going to be non-existent for the next four years. Or negative, people are fleeing to Canada.

Oh horse hockey. The illegal aliens will only respect a show of force and without that wall they will still be pouring in here in droves. Right now all this tough talk from Trump with no sign of real enforcement or the wall is only going to embolden the Illegals to storm into the country more then ever.

Grandpa: I am all for people having their own opinions and have constructive disagreements, but your messages seems to always get lost in the delivery.

Friends, this is a metro population thread meant to have some fun taking a stab at guessing what the new 2016 Omaha metro and CSA populations will be.. as this actual US Census data will be released in less than 2 weeks..

Let's keep it that way. Please don't push the envelope and make me start deleting posts that stray outside the orbit of the topic..I despise having to do that..Our expectation, moving forward, are posts that provide a prediction and accompying reasoning as to why. Nothing more, nothing less..

Thanks in advance...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

An update-

The US Census will be releasing the new 2016 Metro/CSA estimates to the public this coming Thursday, March 23rd.. The media will get a sneak peek on the 21st..

So if you have a prediction, get 'em in asap ...

Here is the US Census story link:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... 17-35.html

Ciao..LiO...Peace

My guesses:

Metro 445,572
CSA 962,491

Athomsfere wrote:My guesses:

Metro 445,572
CSA 962,491

A loss of 500,000 in the metro?

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:

Athomsfere wrote:My guesses:

Metro 445,572
CSA 962,491

A loss of 500,000 in the metro?

I'm going to guess Athomsfere meant 945,572 metro. Correct me if I'm wrong ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Omaha Cowboy wrote:

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:

Athomsfere wrote:My guesses:

Metro 445,572
CSA 962,491

A loss of 500,000 in the metro?

I'm going to guess Athomsfere meant 945,572 metro. Correct me if I'm wrong ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Or he thinks Fremont has had some hidden explosion that we haven't seen.

Garrett wrote:

Omaha Cowboy wrote:

TitosBuritoBarn wrote:

Athomsfere wrote:My guesses:

Metro 445,572
CSA 962,491

A loss of 500,000 in the metro?

I'm going to guess Athomsfere meant 945,572 metro. Correct me if I'm wrong ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Or he thinks Fremont has had some hidden explosion that we haven't seen.

If they add that Costco Chicken plant, you never know ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace