New Census figures

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 12:07 am

Well, we aren't Maricopa County, AZ, which grew by 700,000 people in 6 years, but the U.S. Census bureau has released population estimates for all counties, as of 7-1-2006. It shows the following:

Douglas Co. grew from 464,595 to 492,003 in 6 years. (increase of 27,408)
Sarpy Co. grew from 122,595 to 142,637 in 6 years. (increase of 20,042)
Cass Co., NE grew from 24,401 to 25,963 in 6 years (increase of 1,562)
Washington Co. grew from 18,801 to 20,044 in 6 years (increase of 1,243)
Saunders Co. grew from 19,856 to 20,344 in 6 years (increase of 488)
Pott. Co. IA grew from 87,989 to 90,218 in 6 years (increase of 2,229)
Mills Co. IA grew from 14,575 to 15,595 in 6 years (increase of 1,020)
Harrison, Co. IA grew from 15,706 to 15,745 in 6 years (increase of only 39)

Total gain for metro in 6 years = about 54,000 or 9,000 a year.

Lancaster Co. grew from 251,190 to 267,135 in 6 years. (an increase of almost 16,000)

Source: http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/C ... 06-01.html

A good showing for Nebraska's 2 largest metros, but the state of Nebraska overall gained only 55,000 in the 6 year period, meaning that more than 100% of the state gains are coming from 6 counties. The remainder of the state continues to slide toward "Buffalo Commons."

TitosBuritoBarn · Post by **TitosBuritoBarn** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 1:38 am

Yyyyyyyyeeeeesssss!! My third Christmas has come again...although as I type this I have not looked at the results as I want to keep it a bit of a surprise, so I we'll see if this happiness retains itself.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 8:22 am

Another way to "spin" these numbers is by saying that metro Omaha (or metro Lincoln, or metro Des Moines) are big fish, swimming in a small pond. All failed to make the Top 100 counties in terms of population growth. Johnson Co., KS did come in at 57, with a 6 year gain of 65,200 people. I saw no other nearby counties making the top 100. Further away, St. Charles Co., MO (near St. Louis) gained 55,000 and came in at 73rd on the list. Four counties outside Chicago also did well, with one cracking the Top 10, but the top 9 counties for growth were all in the Sun Belt. I note that 33 of the top 34 growth counties were in the Sun Belt. Not much we can do about that trend.

source: http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www ... 42tbl1.xls

A list of the largest 100 counties, in terms of total population, is available at http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www ... 42tbl2.xls Jackson and St. Louis counties in MO make the list, but surprisingly (to me, at least) no other counties in states contiguous to Nebraska are in the top 100.

agibson95 · Post by **agibson95** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 9:17 am

Is it only about 823,000 in the metro area? I was thinking we were closer to 860,000 for some reason.

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 9:30 am

(gibson, I believe you're thinking of the CSA figure which includes the Fremont 'micropolitan' area)

Another way to "spin" these numbers is by saying that metro Omaha (or metro Lincoln, or metro Des Moines) are big fish, swimming in a small pond.

I guess the question is... do we really want growth which is going to give us more than 100,000 additional residents a decade? Â I personally think there is such a thing as smart growth here. Â I'll take the midwestern... 'steady as she goes' trend... over what they're seeing in the southwest, for example, any day.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 9:54 am

Honestly Jeff, I think 10,000+ a year metro growth is 'steady as she goes' growth..

Omaha is edging toward that 1,000,000 mark at a healthy, yet reasonable clip..Which will allow the infrastructure to accommodate it..

We're lucky we're not Atlanta..

..Ciao..LiO....Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 10:39 am

Here is a summary..

Omaha:

2005 MSA-813,170
2006 MSA-822,549
+9379..

2005 CSA-849,248
2006 CSA-858,720
+9472..

Some additional cities of interest:

Lincoln:
-2006 MSA-283,970 (no CSA for Lincoln)..

Omaha-Lincoln combined: 1,142,690..

Des Moines IA:
-2006 MSA-534,230
-2006 CSA-604,626..

Wichita KS:
-2006 MSA-592,126
-2006 CSA-627,057..

Tulsa OK:
-2006 MSA-897,752
-2006 CSA-946.993..

Albuquerque NM:
-2006 MSA-816,861 (no CSA for Albuquerque)..

..Ciao..LiO....Peace

Big E · Post by **Big E** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 10:50 am

Stargazer wrote:I'll take the midwestern... 'steady as she goes' trend... over what they're seeing in the southwest, for example, any day.

I'd nearly take stagnation over what is going on in the Phoenix area. Â That is a disaster waiting to happen down there, strictly rfom a natural resources (water) perspective. Â Wait until the housing market completely implodes.

-Big E

Erik · Post by **Erik** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 11:41 am

I remember after the 2000 count was done, everyone was excited cause the census bureau vastly underestimated the growth, do you think that this might happen again?

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 11:45 am

Erik wrote:I remember after the 2000 count was done, everyone was excited cause the census bureau vastly underestimated the growth, do you think that this might happen again?

Yes..These US Census estimates are notorious for low-balling a bit..

Omaha has added 55,508 people to it's metro area since 2000..

Omaha 2000 MSA population: 767,041
Omaha 2006 MSA population: 822,549..

Based on the current growth rate, it's reasonable to assume Omaha will add 95,000 to 105,000 to it's metro population this decade by the time we hit the official 2010 census..

..Ciao..LiO....Peace

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 12:16 pm

Honestly Jeff, I think 10,000+ a year metro growth is 'steady as she goes' growth..

Yeah, that was what I was referring to... in response to NativeOmahan's suggesting that we shouldn't be all that excited given our absence from the top 100 growth counties.

Folks, referring to Phoenix... do you realize that they are on track to add a "St Louis" to their population in just two decades time. The sad thing is... their core hasn't changed significantly in those two decades. They are only now adding a small light rail line. Â These people need heavy rail commuter lines... going in every direction.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 12:38 pm

Stargazer wrote: Folks, referring to Phoenix... do you realize that they are on track to add a "St Louis" to their population in just two decades time. The sad thing is... their core hasn't changed significantly in those two decades. They are only now adding a small light rail line. These people need heavy rail commuter lines... going in every direction.

Also check Atlanta:

Atlanta MSA 2000: 4,281,616
Atlanta MSA 2006: 5,138,223

Atlanta CSA 2000: 4,583,958
Atlanta CSA 2006: 5,478,667..

Atlanta's infrastructure was designed to accommodate a metro of perhaps 2 to 2.5 million..

This freakishly high growth rate helps to explain why, for instance, you can get stuck in an interstate traffic jam at any time day or night in and around Atlanta..It's just sick..

I haven't run the 2006 estimate number for Dallas-Ft Worth yet, but they're in the same boat with Phoenix and Atlanta..

But people still move to these places in droves..Mainly because that's where the highest and most diverse job opportunities exist..Some of it it 'hype' as well..

..Ciao..LiO....Peace

StreetsOfOmaha · Post by **StreetsOfOmaha** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 1:23 pm

Omaha Cowboy wrote:
Erik wrote:I remember after the 2000 count was done, everyone was excited cause the census bureau vastly underestimated the growth, do you think that this might happen again?
Yes..These US Census estimates are notorious for low-balling a bit..

Omaha has added 55,508 people to it's metro area since 2000..

Omaha 2000 MSA population: 767,041
Omaha 2006 MSA population: 822,549..

Based on the current growth rate, it's reasonable to assume Omaha will add 95,000 to 105,000 to it's metro population this decade by the time we hit the official 2010 census..

..Ciao..LiO....Peace

All true. Â It's important to remember that in 2003 the government re-structured the MSA and CSA requirements, which benefited Omaha statistically (and was more accurate), as it did many major metros.

Also, did anyone else notice the negative spin in the OWH headline: "Rural Population Wanes in Nebraska and Iowa." Â Why not, "Metropolitan Counties Continue to Grow in Nebraska and Iowa?"

edsas · Post by **edsas** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 3:53 pm

I'm surprised that Saunders County's gain was only 400. It's in such a prime spot to have bedroom communities for both Omaha and Lincoln. I'll bet it takes off next decade.

edsas · Post by **edsas** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 4:03 pm

The tri-counties are doing pretty well:

Hall gained 2,021, for a total of 55,555
Buffalo gained 1,695 for a total of 43,954
Adams gained 2,034 for a total of 33,185

Surprising that Adams County had the biggest net gain of the three.

Grand Island's micropolitan population:

61,738 in 2000 to 63,509 in 2006.

guy4omaha · Post by **guy4omaha** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 4:36 pm

any of you guys with the figures have the skinny on Dodge County. With Fremont and the Expressway from Dodge Street to Dodge County, this is the county I am betting on for huge percentage growth in the next ten years.

Candleshoe · Post by **Candleshoe** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 4:36 pm

I'll put things in outstate Nebraska in perspective here by further analyzing the reports. I'll start by posting the list of counties that have experienced growth since 2000.

25 counties that grew:

.Sarpy County +16%
.Washington County +7%
.Lancaster County +7%
.Cass County +7%
.Adams County +7%
.Douglas County +6%
.Johnson County +4%
.Buffalo County +4%
.Hall County +4%
.Lincoln County +4%
.Dawson County +3%
.Saunders County +3%
.Howard County +3%
.Otoe County +2%
.Saline County +2%
.Seward County +2%
.Stanton County +2%
.Dakota County +2%
.Gage County +2%
.Thurston County +1%
.Platte County +1%
.Hamilton County +1%
.Cheyenne County +<1%
.Madison County +<1%
.Dodge County +<1%

Of these, Washington, Cass, Adams, Johnson, Howard, Otoe, Saline, Stanton, Gage, Thurston, Platte and Madison can be described as rural counties off of the Interstate. I know that Cass has the interstate skim across one corner... that doesn't count

The counties with the biggest losses by percentage:
.Blaine County -16%
.Arthur County -16%
.Thomas County -14%
.Garden County -13%
.Grant County -12%
.Frontier County -12%
.Rock County -12%
.Thayer County -12%
.Boyd County Â Â Â Â Â Â -10%
.Sheridan County Â Â Â -10%
.Greeley County Â Â Â Â -10%

Each is rural, none are on an Interstate, only Thayer County can be called a farm county while the others are predominantly arid cattle counties. These 11 counties lost a combined 3,107 people... from 27,055 to 23,948. All but two have populations less than 3,000, Four of which have less than 700. Two of those have less than 500. The fact that many of these counties border each other in the Sandhills might oughta make them prime for either merging or at the least, combining services. Too many counties with a part time Sheriff out there.

Erik · Post by **Erik** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 5:46 pm

People in Saunders county in 2000 21.3% commuted to Omaha
while 18.3% commuted to Lincoln...

since now 25% commute to Omaha, what would happen if the percent passed 25% to Lincoln also??

In 2000 if a city had an urban area of 10,000 or more Omaha and Lincoln would've qualified as a CSA

http://www.nlc.state.ne.us/epubs/P8400/ ... 4-2004.pdf

NovakOmaha · Post by **NovakOmaha** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 6:26 pm

To have real growth you're going to have to have more happenings like the UP bringing hundreds of people thing. Â Absent that, I feel it will be more on the low end of 5-10,000 range.

Steady is nice as it gives Omaha a chance to keep up with infrastructure.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 7:15 pm

StreetsOfOmaha wrote:[Also, did anyone else notice the negative spin in the OWH headline: "Rural Population Wanes in Nebraska and Iowa." Why not, "Metropolitan Counties Continue to Grow in Nebraska and Iowa?"

Well, headlines aren't supposed to highlight the obvious....like having a headline saying "Dog bites Man". Virtually all metro areas grew substantially in the past 6 (or 60) years. But the oddity about the census figures is that most of Nebraska's counties somehow managed to LOSE population...at the same time the nation surpassed 301,000,000 people. People are, as the old saying goes, voting with their feet, and voting in droves to leave rural Nebraska and surrounding plains states. Like the water was poisoned or something. This trend has gone on since....drum roll please....1920. It started with the Great Depression, and the trend has never stopped.

Check out this census map. Only the Great Plains are experiencing an actual population loss. The rest of the nation, particularly the south and west, are growing rapidly.
http://www.census.gov/popest/gallery/ma ... ercent.pdf

Erik · Post by **Erik** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 8:15 pm

here is another link stating the same thing... I think we'll see a Omaha/Lincoln CSA sooner than we all think...

http://mcdc2.missouri.edu/data/workflow ... Rsort.html

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Thu Mar 22, 2007 10:00 pm

You're saying because a large number of people commute from Saunders to both Omaha and Lincoln... that Lincoln should be part of the Omaha CSA? Â I don't think it works that way.

It's all about how many people are commuting from Lincoln to Omaha... and according to that informative table you found there... only -2- % of Lincolnites are doing so. Â I don't think that's going to even be a blip on the census department radar.

Erik · Post by **Erik** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 6:57 am

Think Dallas-Ft Worth very few travel from one to the other, but the cities in between do..

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 7:18 am

Erik, we've enthusiastically explored this path before... however there's no comparison between Omaha-Lincoln and Dallas-Ft Worth, which are separated by half the distance and a space which is fully developed no less.

cdub · Post by **cdub** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 8:02 am

which are separated by half the distance and a space which is fully developed no less

Yeah, what he said...

CapitalGuy · Post by **CapitalGuy** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 8:26 am

Cass County Experiences Growth From 2 Sides

Before people click or start to |expletive|, the article is written by the Journal-Star so obviously it is going to have a Lincoln point of view. Do not waste time critiquing the article's style, if you have that much time you need to consider trying to find a new name for North Downtown or stopping the national press from putting "Neb." behind Omaha in print. Both of these things seem to be the preferred way of stimulating fruitless discussion on this board. Now onto the meat of the article:

Led by Cass County, all six counties that are most contiguous to Lincoln and Lancaster County grew between the 2000 census and July 2006.

Cass County continues to set the growth pace in the Lincoln area. It’s up 1,562 people since 2000. That’s about equal to Lancaster County’s 6.7 percent growth so far in this decade.

Saunders County, also close to both Lincoln and Omaha, actually lost almost 100 residents last year, although it still ranks second in total population growth since 2000 among the six counties adjoining Lancaster.

So far, the tongue-in-cheek standard of comparison has Sarpy County land selling by the foot and Cass County land selling by the acre. But look for that to change in Cass County before long.

“I’d say in 10 years it will,” Wehrbein said.

Erik · Post by **Erik** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 8:59 am

in 2000 here are the commutes to lincoln:

From Cass to Lancaster Co. NE 1,706 13.6 1.2
From Saunders to Lancaster Co. NE 1,853 18.2 1.3

The lastest I can find are in 2000, however there is growth experienced in both counties due to the proximity of Lincoln and both County are almost or now fully qualified to be a part of the Lincoln MSA, or Omaha/Lincoln CSA

Here is something to look at for the near future as all commute percentages are increasing:
From Otoe county to Lancaster Co. NE 1,220 16.1 0.8
From Saline county Lancaster Co. NE 1,100 15.8 0.8
From Dodge County to Douglas Co. NE 3,206 17.7 1.1

Long ways away:
From Gage County to Lancaster Co. NE 1,199 10.4 0.8

Source: Â http://mcdc2.missouri.edu/data/workflow ... Rsort.html

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 10:06 am

Another point to note..

Omaha had a net job growth gain of 8400 in 2006..Roughly 3000 more than in 2005..So I would expect Omaha to jump back to adding roughly 11-12,000 people to it's MSA/CSA when the 2007 estimate comes out this time next year..

..Ciao..LiO....Peace

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 10:39 am

Unless those are people like my wife, who went back to work to seek additional household income in the light of diminishing employer provided insurance benefits.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 10:44 am

Jeff Beals and I were chatting about those job numbers over breakfast this morning..

The numbers came from the Chamber..I suspect the category she falls in as it relates to the 8400 job growth number to be a small % factor..

..

..Ciao..LiO....Peace

StreetsOfOmaha · Post by **StreetsOfOmaha** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 12:02 pm

I'm aware of all that, NativeOmahan. Â

To me, it seems like the fact that so many rural counties are losing population is the obvious. Â I don't know, it just seems like the OWH had a choice between positive and negative, and they went with negative, even when the statistics that ACTUALLY RELATE TO OMAHA, the city of which they are the main newspaper, where positive.

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 1:01 pm

The numbers came from the Chamber..I suspect the category she falls in as it relates to the 8400 job growth number to be a small % factor

Then there's a friend of mine, a successful software developer, who chose to go to work at the Apple store during evenings/weekends ... just because he thought it would be a cool place to work.

I'm actually amazed how many people work two jobs these days. Even my wife's boss at a Bank of the West branch, works parttime at a Younkers cosmetic counter.

Now all that said, all one need do is look at all the new restaurants/retailers alone, to realize that there must be some significant job growth going on.

RockHarbor · Post by **RockHarbor** » Fri Mar 23, 2007 2:32 pm

I just asked about this, and it is right in front of me. Â The Omaha metro really has grown a lot.

CapitalGuy · Post by **CapitalGuy** » Sat Jun 30, 2007 10:43 pm

Surprised no one posted anything about the new city pop. estimates. Usually, posters on this board go ape |expletive| over this type of info.

So here are some of the pertinent stats:

Top Ten Growth Rates from 2000-2006
Hallam village 575 108.33%
Gretna city 5,970 107.80
La Vista city 16,041 37.16
Hickman city 1,404 26.37
Firth village 684 21.28
Bennet village 685 20.18
Papillion city 21,271 18.96
Julian village 74 17.46
Tecumseh city 2,011 17.19
Waverly city 2,851 16.46

Top Ten Cities as of 2006 Estimates
Omaha city 419,545 7.19%
Lincoln city 241,167 6.53
Bellevue city 47,594 7.24
Grand Island city 44,632 3.55
Kearney city 29,385 7.11
Fremont city 25,417 0.81
Hastings city 25,144 2.26
North Platte city 24,386 1.89
Norfolk city 23,896 1.38
Columbus city 21,414 1.42

Notes:
*Five of the top ten highest growth rate communities are in Lancaster County (Waverly, Bennet, Firth, Hickman, Hallam)
*Three of the top ten highest growth rate communities are in Sarpy County (Gretna, La Vista, Papillion)
*Papillion is about 200 citizens behind Columbus and will be at least 10th and possibly as high as 6th (maybe a high growth rate with SLTC opening) by 2010.
*I think with half-ways aggressive annexation and some infill growth, Omaha could eclipse 450,000 by 2010.

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Sun Jul 01, 2007 12:28 am

Where's La Vista?

TitosBuritoBarn · Post by **TitosBuritoBarn** » Sun Jul 01, 2007 1:44 am

Stargazer wrote:Where's La Vista?

It's in Sarpy County just north of Papillion.

Laurel and Tecumseh are a bit surprising to see on the fastest growing list. While most towns in similar remote locations are struggling to hold onto population, these particular towns are growing at double digit percentates? Were some meat packing plants built there?

I was happy to see that Nebraska's third largest urban area, Grand Island, posted good growth between '05 and '06. I believe they were only 0.1% behind Omaha.

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Sun Jul 01, 2007 2:19 am

I'm guessing La Vista added as many people as the total populations of those Lincoln suburbs... combined. Â It should be in the top 10 fastest growth rate cities. Â La Vista has added at LEAST 20% since 2000.

CapitalGuy · Post by **CapitalGuy** » Sun Jul 01, 2007 9:16 am

Sorry guys, LaVista is actually 3rd for growth rate. Laurel lost 5%. When I was massaging the numbers last night I did and alpha sort which alphabetized La Vista differently than the Census Bureau apparently does. That ended up flip flopping the growth rates for Laurel and LaVista.

Also, the 11th highest city in growth rate is also in Lancaster County (Denton).

To Tito:
Tecumseh has the new state penitentiary which has provided them with a lot of jobs.
And while GI's growth rate was solid, Kearney is the city in the west that is on fire growing over 7% since 2000.
Julian I have no answer for other than that they have only added 10 people since 2000 which could just be a baby boom in a small town.

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Sun Jul 01, 2007 9:23 am

No problem.

Yeah, I think within the next 10-20 years... we'll see both Papillion and La Vista pass some old Nebraska population stalwarts.

MTO · Post by **MTO** » Sun Jul 01, 2007 12:16 pm

Are the rural areas of the state still stagnant and or decreasing still? Â I remember reading about that in the Omaha paper years ago.

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New Census figures

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