'08 Senate Race

[Big E]

We have three official candidates already (Bruning, Johanns, Daub), and another three on the other side of the aisle very likely (Fahey, Kerrey, possibly Kleeb).  I know this isn't a political forum, but I thought a shot at trying to put it all under one umbrella might corral some of the inevitable flingery.

Some thoughts:

With the Senate as close as it is, the Nebraska race will receive attention (ie, funding) from both parties.  It is very much in play.  Get ready for some slinging in the general on a level or even higher than the Ricketts-Nelson primary.

Johanns and Daub entering the race essentially eliminates Bruning from contention, although he could very easily play the Nader to one of their Gore's (not sure which one, though).

If Bruning shows any sort of traction early, there will be some dirt crawling out of the woodwork.  

If Kerrey gets in, the Dems would be wise to tell Fahey to sit tight (or possibly vice versa), and then let the (R)s bash each other for a few months.  I don't think they could win a general if they blow their wad on the primary.

I also noticed that our Attorney General's office has been reminding us of the importance of not driving drunk.  Noble cause to be sure, but I wonder why it's the AG's job to be reminding us of that... on Z92... with taxpayer money... at the beginning of a Senate race.  Hmmm...   (And yes, I'll bash Fahey if/when he uses his office to bolster his campaign.)

My early call: Daub defetas Kerrey by the slimmest of margins in the general.  Nebraska stays red but further solidifies itself as a state in play nationally.

-Big E

[DTO Luv]

I'm really torn on who I would vote for between Daub and Kerry. I think Johanns will get the outstate vote so I may have to vote for the weaker candidate against Kerry. My Omaha side would love to vote for Daub BUT I have a feeling I wouldn't like him as a Senator. I'lll really have to watch what Kerry and Daub say closely.

[CapitalGuy]

Interesting analysis by both of you. And since we are handicapping, I'll throw my two cents in as well.

On the Dem side, Kerrey is the Clinton or Gore or Colin Powell type candidate for Democrats in Nebraska. It may no longer be his party, but Dems still idolize him and any sort of resentment for going to New York will be forgotten the first time he opens his mouth and the charisma and confidence comes back. Nobody, and I mean nobody, tells it like it is like Bob Kerrey, and I believe people will be reminded of that again during this campaign. Kerrey picks up this nomination unopposed.

I think for the Repub's both of you are letting your Omaha bias show. I think if anyone truly plays a pesky third wheel in this race, it is going to be Daub. You guys have to remember that both Bruning and Johanns have won statewide elections. Daub has not. In fact, I would venture to guess that Daub has very little notoriety outside of Douglas/Sarpy County. Keep in mind Daub struggles to win elections within the metro as is. He has never really blown people out the way some candidates have. I also think Johanns wins because he is going to get the support of presumably Hagel and Heineman. These guys are old friends. However, Bruning will have strong support from big Rep backers (see David Sokol) and Tom Osborne and possibly the House members. My prediction is that Johanns win the nomination with between 45-50% of the vote, Bruning and Daub pick up approximately 10 and 40 percent respectively.

I think the general election will be a real dog fight. This will be interesting, because both politicians are popular. I think I see Kerrey going to the well one time too often though, and coming up short with approximately 46% compared to Johanns 54%.

I should also mention in the spirit of full disclosure that I am a BIG Bob Kerrey fan. I'd like to have him back, but I don't think a majority of Nebraskans feel the same way I do about him.

Also Big E, what dirt do you expect to come out of the woodwork? Is it something about Bruning?

[Big E]

I won't disagree with anything you said Guy, most of all letting my Omaha bias show. After I typed that I thought about the "Johanns-as-Bush-Boy" celebrity status (is he more Nebraska-famous than both Johnny Carson AND Tommie Frazier?) and thought about hedging my bets.  I still think Daub gets the Republican primary, but if Bruning sticks around long enough he makes it WAY more interesting by just being a general pain in the |expletive|.  Interesting that you picked Johanns to win with Bruning taking enough votes to keep Daub out.  I think it is VERY important for the GOP to get an R elected that won't cost them more seats elsewhere in '10, and they know it.

As far as Kerry being the Dem poster boy (talk about showing you(R) bias ) I can't totally disagree, but I do think that Dems realize the importance of backing an ELECTABLE Dem at this point.  Is Fahey electable outside of Omaha?  Can I drink in my suite at the state wrestling tournament in Lincoln?    :coolwoot:  :banger: The Dems can win if they are unite early and let the (R)s run their negative campaign for them.

I do believe that a strong Omaha-centric candidate can win a statewide election by simply not pissing off everyone west of Gretna.  Not sure exactly which one of these guys that is.  

Re: "what dirt?" = Bruning - former Pres of the Young Democrats during his education at UNL - is un-electable.  Period.  I won't sling anything I've heard because, frankly, I can't substantiate any of it, but let's just say reputations happen for a reason.

And, in summary:  Chambers for Senate '08.

-Big E

[Omababe]

Interesting that you picked Johanns to win with Bruning taking enough votes to keep Daub out.

My discounted $.02 here, and all this is just gut feeling, nothing really to substantiate it. I just get the feeling that Johanns is the most electable of the Red Boys. My hunch is that the outstate 'pubs (still) support Dubya and will support his choice here.

As far as Kerry being the Dem poster boy (talk about showing you(R) bias ) I can't totally disagree, but I do think that Dems realize the importance of backing an ELECTABLE Dem at this point.

Of the Blues, I think Kerrey is the most electable. However, he's gonna attract the negative ads like doodoo does flies! If you think Pete What's-his-name's ads against Ben were bad, you ain't seen nothin' yet! OMG, just wait to pass the air-sick-bag on this one!

Although Nebraska is predominately Red, since I've lived here the people seem to elect a mix of all persuasions, with some real surprises. I thought that Tom Osborn was such a shoo-in that it would be an exercise in futility to run against him, only to have him defeated in the primary.

And, in summary:  Chambers for Senate '08.

Actually, if he ran, I just might vote for him. He stirred the pot quite well in the statehouse for what, 30-some years? Now he's stirring the pot upstairs. Let's see what he would do in Washington!

[Big E]

Although Nebraska is predominately Red, since I've lived here the people seem to elect a mix of all persuasions, with some real surprises. I thought that Tom Osborn was such a shoo-in that it would be an exercise in futility to run against him, only to have him defeated in the primary.

Osborne basically told Nebraskans he was too tired to coach, and then went on to politics.  For as loyal as Nebraskans can be, they hold a grudge even longer.  I don't think they were ready to forgive him for Solich's 7-7 season.  

(I say that jokingly, but I guarantee you that went through the head of MANY voters.)

-Big E

[Stargazer]

Johanns wins... you can bank on it.  Kerry has no chance... not in Nebraska today.  When Republican party planners thought to make their party the one which cared about the unborn, 'protecting' marriage, and all those other socially divisive issue which every red neck, toothless, apple pie and Walmart loving American gets worked up over ... Kerry lost.

[Swift]

I'm hesitantly calling it for Johanns as well. Although... the political climate in Nebraska has been a bit strange lately. Think Osborne loosing, Esch getting the democratic nomination, and all three districts being in play for the house in '06. None of these things were expected to happen but did. Perhaps the political landscape of the state is starting to shift.

I'd really love to see a Kerrey/Daub race. Come on Daub, earmark us a subway system!

[Big E]

Johanns wins... you can bank on it.

What makes you so sure he wins the Republican primary?  I would agree he would defeat Kerry handily, but I'm not totally convinced he makes it that far.

-Big E

[Stargazer]

Who do you think is going to give Johanns a run ?

[Big E]

Who do you think is going to give Johanns a run ?

Considering I picked Daub to beat Kerry in the general... (showing my Omaha bias, of course).  I don't think Johanns is the shoe-in people think he is, especially with Bruning in there playing the Nader to his Gore.

-Big E

[Brad]

Considering I picked Daub to beat Kerry in the general... (showing my Omaha bias, of course).  I don't think Johanns is the shoe-in people think he is, especially with Bruning in there playing the Nader to his Gore.

I think Bruning has rubbed too many people the wrong way in this state.

[Big E]

I think Bruning has rubbed too many people the wrong way in this state.

Oh, don't get me wrong.  I still think Bruning is unelectable.  But he has his followers (Stargazer spoke affectionately of them a few posts ago), and I think those followers are more likely to also be Johanns supporters than Daub supporters.  Now, I think Johanns wins in a two way race with Daub in a statewide election, perhaps 55-45.  But I think a Daub-Johanns-Bruning race goes closer to 45 (Daub) - 40 (Johanns) - 15 (Bruning).  It's just a feeling I have.

-Big E

[Stargazer]

I personally think you're over estimating how much support Daub has (outside of this forum).  I think a handful of highrise and light rail groupies, have given him a warm fuzzy.

[Brad]

I agree Jeff, most people around the area don't like Daub.  However I think they like Bruning even less.  I am guessing Johans wins.

[omaproud]

Kerrey defeats Johanns in a tight race requiring a re-count!!

[CapitalGuy]

I am going to side with Stargazer's theory on Daubula. As supporting authority, I will cite a well-placed GOPer who told me recently that one of the GOP senate campaigns has an internal poll showing Bruning trailing Johanns by about 8 points (as best I can remember) and Daub running a distant 3rd.

And Swift, Esch winning the nomination wasn't surprising given that he ran unopposed. The bigger surprise and my personal pleasure was watching his grassroots campaign make Lee Terry sweat on Election night.

[Coyote]

BREAKING NEWS: Hal Daub to exit Senate race

Daub scheduled an unspecified "major announcement" for 9 a.m. Friday at the Omaha Press Club. He is expected to announce that the time is not right for his campaign, said three people close to the former Omaha mayor, speaking on condition of anonymity.

[Coyote]

AP Says Daub Pulling Out Of Senate Race

Nebraska's congressmen, all Republicans, say the head of the party's national senatorial committee has called them to ask if they could clear the way for Johanns. Nebraska Republican Rep. Lee Terry said Thursday he didn't know what Daub planned to announce, adding Daub "is a party guy, and if there is one person would get out of the race for the sake of the party, it would be him."

[Swift]

||expletive||ers!

I'm an Independent, but this is a good example of why I haven't voted for a republican since...well ever. Kick out the guy who's arguably the best for the job just to keep the old boy network intact. ||expletive||ers.

[Big E]

Nebraska's congressmen, all Republicans, say the head of the party's national senatorial committee has called them to ask if they could clear the way for Johanns.

Seantor Johanns it is.

Apparently it's me and the GOP were over-estimating Daub's chances outside of Omaha.  

-Big E

[Stargazer]

Eh... the whole fiasco may have earned Kerry a few votes (assuming he even ends up running).

[Coyote]

Daub Quits Senate Race, Cites Financial Competition

Daub said raising financing against Sen. Chuck Hagel would have been tough, so when the senator announced he was retiring, he decided to get into the race. Daub said financing a race against Mike Johanns would be just as tough as competing against Hagel. On Friday, Daub said polls already show that Johanns will be the front-runner, and he "doesn't want to make another concession speech in my life."

Nebraska U.S. Sen. Ben Nelson said he was expecting Daub to get out of the race. He said he thinks Daub has something else in mind -- returning to the Omaha mayor's office. "Whatever arrangements were made, it was probably to support him if he runs for mayor, and I think everybody expects him to run for mayor. It might have been what that was all about," Nelson said.

"Everybody expects him to run for Mayor"?

[Coyote]

Longtime Nebraska Pol Drops ‘08 Senate Bid, Citing Front-runner’s Insider Clout

Daub expressed dismay that many Republican officials prefer Johanns, who recently resigned as President Bush’s Agriculture secretary and who is expected to formally enter the Senate race soon. “The system has decided that Mike Johanns will be the front-runner and [he] will have a substantial advantage in the financial requirements to mount a campaign.”

“The party’s chances are not improved by these heavy-handed attempts from Washington to clear the way for their guy,” Bruning said in a statement. “There are clear differences between me and Mike Johanns, and Republicans deserve a positive campaign based on the issues.”

Hal Daub Drops Out Of Nebraska Senate Race

In two separate polls conducted this month – one from the National Republican Senatorial Committee and one from Bruning’s campaign – Daub finished a distant third.

[Coyote]

Has Hillary Found Her #2?

There has been much speculation that if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination for President (a less certain bet today than a few months back though still likely), she will choose a running mate with a military background. Virginia Senator Jim Webb and former General Wesley Clark are two former military men who have been prominently mentioned. But both have suffered from bouts of foot-in-mouth disease. A far more obvious and smarter choice, if this is the path that Clinton chooses to go, would be former Nebraska Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey.

And there is at least some evidence that such a move may be in the works. Earlier this year, Nebraska's maverick Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, announced that he would not seek re-election to the Senate (running as a VP with Michael Bloomberg on a third party ticket may have some appeal however). The Democrat most capable of winning this open seat would be Bob Kerrey, now the President of the New School in New York. But Kerrey flirted with running for the Senate for a few weeks, and then bowed out.

While Kerrey would have been an even bet or better against any other GOP nominee, against Johanns he would have started out as an underdog. So it may have been a simple electoral calculus that led Kerrey to bow out. But what if the reason Kerrey decided not to run for the Senate is that he got a call asking him if he wanted to return to Washington in a different capacity, namely as Vice President?

[NDizona]

Johanns wins... you can bank on it.

The thing about Johanns - he always does right by Nebraska and isn't crazy on spending.  He was an excellent governor moving Nebraska into the global economy trading with nations that would not have otherwise gave NE a first look.  I had friends that worked with him and they had nothing but praise for him.  

Honestly we have been blessed with some excellent governors - Nelson (although I don't always agree with his politics), Johanns and Heineman all did an excellent job leading the state.  I think Heineman is lucky to have inherited excellent people...

Bottom line - we would be insane not to vote for Johanns.

[Big E]

Bottom line - we would be insane not to vote for Johanns.

Lucky enough for us, the GOP saw to it that we would not have to be bothered with making a decision in the primary on our own and had any other Republican competition get out of the race.

Democracy in action, folks.

-Big E

[NDizona]

#1 I am not a republican  -  (I am a Libertarian - VOTE RON PAUL)

#2 The Democratic party has no one in the wings - it is very disorganized in Nebraska despite the fact our state spends money like women at Dillards...Our state is more socialist than it is anything else.  Farm subsidies, countless people on welfare, pork spending projects (Pedestrian Bridge), and nothing to offset this like gambling.  I doubt any Democrat could come in and outspend the Republicans.

#3 Bottom line is - no one wants to run because no one else is as qualified - and the people that are qualified simply won't run.  

#4 Its time for a third party - or maybe replacing the democrats with the Libertarians...  just a thought

[Big E]

For the record, I wasn't making a pro/anti Republican/Democrat commentary.  I was just pointing out that the national party pretty much removed the citizens from the process all on its own.  I'd call BS regardless of party affiliation on that one.

-Big E

[Uffda]

I was just pointing out that the national party pretty much removed the citizens from the process all on its own.

Last night I was chatting with someone and said it really doesn't make any difference to listen to what is going on in all the primaries --- they responded 'why' -- and I said because by the time I get a chance to vote on anything it will be down to two people all the others will have been run off by losses.

I remember my folks have the national conventions on in the late 60s and early 70s and there was still 'some' suspense about who might get the parties nomination --- all that is taken care long before they get to those conventions now.... so not even sure why the need to hold either one... except for PR.

[DTO Luv]

Looks like I'll be writing my self in this year.

DTO Luv Senate '08!

[Brad]

Looks like I'll be writing my self in this year.

DTO Luv Senate '08!

You might have a shot.  I don't remember any Liberal, God hating, Husker hating, Black Republicans running in Nebraska.  :;):

[icejammer]

Looks like I'll be writing my self in this year.

DTO Luv Senate '08!

Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately?), the Constitution limits Senators to age 30 and above.  Sorry DTO....

[NDizona]

I don't remember any Liberal, God hating, Husker hating, Black Republicans running in Nebraska.

You sound like a Libertarian

http://www.lp.org/



Vote Ron Paul - or you are a Communist.

[nativeomahan]

The reason libertarians do so poorly at the polls is because almost no one believes in more than 50% of what the libertarian party stands for.  Conservatives may laud the fiscal restraint libertarians believe in (although maybe not so much, if you look at what happened to the federal budget under 6 years of Republican control of both Congress and the White House), but they can't stand the notion of the government keeping it's big nose out of people's personal lives (abortion, gay marriage, medicinal use of marijuana, assisted suicide laws, wiretapping without a warrant, etc.).  Traditional liberals may applaud the notion of protecting individual rights from government snooping, anti-abortion laws, and on and on, but they won't countenance the thought of getting rid of the IRS, government assistance to the poor, government regulation of industry, consumer protection laws, civil rights protections, and on and on.  And few people will go out of their way to vote for someone who is totally wrong in half of the positions they take, no matter how right they may be the rest of the time.

Ron Paul has made the Republican debates somewhat interesting, and I agree with him on about half of his positions, but he is totally out to lunch the rest of the time.  If most of his young supporters knew about all of his positions, they would desert him in droves.  It won't matter in any event, as the GOP money machine will silence him before he goes any further.

[NDizona]

The reason libertarians do so poorly at the polls is because almost no one believes in more than 50% of what the libertarian party stands for.

If Ron Paul had the media in this pocket like the mainstream candidates do - he would change alot of votes.  

I agree if you take his lines and turn them into 5 second sound bites - he sounds crazy.  You have to actually take the time and think through his logic.  Our founding fathers told us to avoid foreign entanglements - but we have military bases spread throughout the world.  Entire countries depend on our aid as their sole source of funding.  When a country get hit with a natural disaster - we are their helping them - no matter how much they hate us.  

The price tag for this kind of policy is staggering.  

What do we really get for it - I have been over seas - most people really don't like Americans.  (Except in Eastern Europe)

I agree with almost everything he says (except I would create a national ID - we already have passports - just use our passport number instead of our social security number...)

The other stance people don't understand is the FBI elimination.  This is where he is coming from - and its probably the most misunderstood of all his policies.  

The FBI / local police / CIA / and military are SUPPOSED to be sharing data but the upper ups have made sure every single database that was supposed to be built failed.  We have spent HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS ON DATABASES THAT WERE NEVER BUILT.  Think about how much time must of gone into making sure each of those projects failed.  We have islands of data that need to be integrated.  The only way to integrate it is to eliminate someone.  The FBI seems to be the most logical choice.  Ron Paul plans on dividing their area of responsibility into the other branches.  I had friends that worked on the integration project - it never had a chance.  Honestly - we are basically running the same way we did on September 10th 2001.  Something needs to change.

[DTO Luv]

Exactly. We do need a change. And the time for change is now. Who wants change?

Vote DTO Luv NE Senate '08!

[NDizona]

Join the Libertarian Party and you have my vote.

[Big E]

Exactly. We do need a change. And the time for change is now. Who wants change?

Vote DTO Luv NE Senate '08!

I think you have to wait 14 years or so.

-Big E

[DTO Luv]

I'm just going to be a write in candidate. With my vast political knowledge I should be a shoe in.

So Big E, do you want to be my Vice Senator?