Omaha Population Explosion

Athomsfere · Post by **Athomsfere** » Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:35 pm

I want to preface this with: I don't believe this at all.

BUT it has come up twice in two very different circles and two very different rumor-mill-ers, so I was curious if anyone could shed light on where the rumor is coming from.

2nd occurrence: "I heard Omaha is going to gain a ludicrous amount of people over the next five years. I don't remember the numbers but it was huge / ridiculous"

Original occurrence: Business owner from KC opening a store here (at a bar after hours):
"Kansas City is hemorrhaging, Omaha is exploding. The projections say Omaha will be bigger than KC within 8 years" I asked to clarify proper or metro and he insisted metro counts.

On the second count, that is effectively impossible in my book. Rope Omaha metro, and Lincoln and double that and we will barely beat KC metro...

But what the heck could be forming these rumors? Something happening here that conflicts with what census data is projecting?

bigredmed · Post by **bigredmed** » Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:07 pm

KCMO is going to turn into St Louis, hollowed out central city and a ring of burbs vampirically feeding off the city, but not supporting it's costs. The MO side of that metro area has not recovered from the judicial fiat school taxes. All serious growth is going on in the Kansas side.

Omaha is already bigger than STL technically speaking as if you compare population of Omaha city and of STL city, STL is smaller.

daveoma · Post by **daveoma** » Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:00 am

I think it's possible for Omaha proper to be larger than KCMO proper (and I sincerely hope someday this comes to pass), however I see two things impeding this possibility:

1. KCMO has reversed the trend of suburban flight. Their population increased 4.1% to 459K people between 2000 & 2010. This reflects a national trend which an empty old city like KCMO is in a perfect position to exploit.

2. Omaha is has great annexation laws, however long term we are restricted by political boundaries and physical geography. Unless the laws change Omaha cannot cross county lines. In addition Omaha is blocked from growing to the east and the west by the Missouri and Platte rivers. If Omaha wants to grow, it must not spread across the prairie, rather; it must grow up thereby increasing density.

Athomsfere · Post by **Athomsfere** » Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:49 am

Omaha proper is really close to KCMO in size for proper (~450k - 470k or about %5 difference)

By growth, Omaha had 4.9% (estimated) for 2010-2014 which is slowdown potentially from 2000-2010. (KCMO only grew 1%)

Omaha is also already almost 3 times as dense as KCMO.

KCK isn't doing much better either.

What's killing me is I can't find a reason for Omaha to pass KC (other than proper) any time soon, but I have heard a few times that Omaha is set to essentially boom.

Don't get me wrong, I think Omaha could with Durham, UNMC, several fortune 1000 companies, Benson, Dundee, Aksarben Village. Anyone from a midwest big city (Dallas, OKC, Tulsa, KC, St Louis) would really like Omaha for example, So if a company started try to bring massive amounts of people here, or an industry, I think they could easily.

But to anyone's knowledge, is there anything that could drive 20-40% growth? That would be a huge influx and still not meet what some of the hype I heard sounded like.

iamjacobm · Post by **iamjacobm** » Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:18 am

We won't see Sun Belt like growth save for some massive job creation.

Joe_Sovereign · Post by **Joe_Sovereign** » Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:03 pm

Athomsfere wrote:Omaha proper is really close to KCMO in size for proper (~450k - 470k or about %5 difference)

By growth, Omaha had 4.9% (estimated) for 2010-2014 which is slowdown potentially from 2000-2010. (KCMO only grew 1%)

Omaha is also already almost 3 times as dense as KCMO.

KCK isn't doing much better either.

What's killing me is I can't find a reason for Omaha to pass KC (other than proper) any time soon, but I have heard a few times that Omaha is set to essentially boom.

Don't get me wrong, I think Omaha could with Durham, UNMC, several fortune 1000 companies, Benson, Dundee, Aksarben Village. Anyone from a midwest big city (Dallas, OKC, Tulsa, KC, St Louis) would really like Omaha for example, So if a company started try to bring massive amounts of people here, or an industry, I think they could easily.

But to anyone's knowledge, is there anything that could drive 20-40% growth? That would be a huge influx and still not meet what some of the hype I heard sounded like.

The Government placing 200,000 Syrian Refugees in Omaha.

bigredmed · Post by **bigredmed** » Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:11 pm

Joe_Sovereign wrote:
Athomsfere wrote:Omaha proper is really close to KCMO in size for proper (~450k - 470k or about %5 difference)

By growth, Omaha had 4.9% (estimated) for 2010-2014 which is slowdown potentially from 2000-2010. (KCMO only grew 1%)

Omaha is also already almost 3 times as dense as KCMO.

KCK isn't doing much better either.

What's killing me is I can't find a reason for Omaha to pass KC (other than proper) any time soon, but I have heard a few times that Omaha is set to essentially boom.

Don't get me wrong, I think Omaha could with Durham, UNMC, several fortune 1000 companies, Benson, Dundee, Aksarben Village. Anyone from a midwest big city (Dallas, OKC, Tulsa, KC, St Louis) would really like Omaha for example, So if a company started try to bring massive amounts of people here, or an industry, I think they could easily.

But to anyone's knowledge, is there anything that could drive 20-40% growth? That would be a huge influx and still not meet what some of the hype I heard sounded like.
The Government placing 200,000 Syrian Refugees in Omaha.

Along with Lutheran Family Services, the Gov could get those and some more from the over run of Europe. No interpreters, 3 months of support, then nothing. That could easily raise the number.

Athomsfere · Post by **Athomsfere** » Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:56 pm

iamjacobm wrote:We won't see Sun Belt like growth save for some massive job creation.

My thoughts exactly! Any one know of any cities over 100k with 100% over a decade growth? Ever?

Athomsfere · Post by **Athomsfere** » Tue Nov 03, 2015 6:57 pm

bigredmed wrote:
Joe_Sovereign wrote:
Athomsfere wrote:Omaha proper is really close to KCMO in size for proper (~450k - 470k or about %5 difference)

By growth, Omaha had 4.9% (estimated) for 2010-2014 which is slowdown potentially from 2000-2010. (KCMO only grew 1%)

Omaha is also already almost 3 times as dense as KCMO.

KCK isn't doing much better either.

What's killing me is I can't find a reason for Omaha to pass KC (other than proper) any time soon, but I have heard a few times that Omaha is set to essentially boom.

Don't get me wrong, I think Omaha could with Durham, UNMC, several fortune 1000 companies, Benson, Dundee, Aksarben Village. Anyone from a midwest big city (Dallas, OKC, Tulsa, KC, St Louis) would really like Omaha for example, So if a company started try to bring massive amounts of people here, or an industry, I think they could easily.

But to anyone's knowledge, is there anything that could drive 20-40% growth? That would be a huge influx and still not meet what some of the hype I heard sounded like.
The Government placing 200,000 Syrian Refugees in Omaha.
Along with Lutheran Family Services, the Gov could get those and some more from the over run of Europe. No interpreters, 3 months of support, then nothing. That could easily raise the number.

Both of you: not cool! Except of course for the pop bump and maybe a dozen high rise projects :|

Linkin5 · Post by **Linkin5** » Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:36 pm

Athomsfere wrote:
iamjacobm wrote:We won't see Sun Belt like growth save for some massive job creation.
My thoughts exactly! Any one know of any cities over 100k with 100% over a decade growth? Ever?

Cities like Chicago, Detroit in the 1800s and early 1900s grew faster than 100% and we're over 100K.

Athomsfere · Post by **Athomsfere** » Tue Nov 03, 2015 7:55 pm

Wow, you are correct. Even to 500k they were able to do it. If They could 100 years ago, then I guess if we had a need it could happen... Still not buying it will.

bigredmed · Post by **bigredmed** » Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:46 pm

Athomsfere wrote:
bigredmed wrote:
Joe_Sovereign wrote:
Athomsfere wrote:Omaha proper is really close to KCMO in size for proper (~450k - 470k or about %5 difference)

By growth, Omaha had 4.9% (estimated) for 2010-2014 which is slowdown potentially from 2000-2010. (KCMO only grew 1%)

Omaha is also already almost 3 times as dense as KCMO.

KCK isn't doing much better either.

What's killing me is I can't find a reason for Omaha to pass KC (other than proper) any time soon, but I have heard a few times that Omaha is set to essentially boom.

Don't get me wrong, I think Omaha could with Durham, UNMC, several fortune 1000 companies, Benson, Dundee, Aksarben Village. Anyone from a midwest big city (Dallas, OKC, Tulsa, KC, St Louis) would really like Omaha for example, So if a company started try to bring massive amounts of people here, or an industry, I think they could easily.

But to anyone's knowledge, is there anything that could drive 20-40% growth? That would be a huge influx and still not meet what some of the hype I heard sounded like.
The Government placing 200,000 Syrian Refugees in Omaha.
Along with Lutheran Family Services, the Gov could get those and some more from the over run of Europe. No interpreters, 3 months of support, then nothing. That could easily raise the number.
Both of you: not cool! Except of course for the pop bump and maybe a dozen high rise projects :|

Not cool? Maybe. Deserved? Oh yes. LFS and our federal govt dumped a bunch of immigrants on our city with no English proficiency or plan for ESL classes. Now our hospitals pay thousands of dollars a year for translator services that we are banned by federal law from billing for. Yeah!

Athomsfere · Post by **Athomsfere** » Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:10 pm

Figures on that? News article?

Just curious what the numbers are for Omaha?

MTO · Post by **MTO** » Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:58 am

Who cares what the city proper populations are!!

Greg S · Post by **Greg S** » Wed Nov 04, 2015 1:54 pm

The Kansas side down there is growing the fastest, as is the Sarpy side here. I just don't see nor have I heard ANYTHING on some sort of out of the blue population explosion for Omaha proper in the next eight years.

Greg

MadMartin8 · Post by **MadMartin8** » Wed Nov 04, 2015 2:46 pm

Massive breeding program?

RNcyanide · Post by **RNcyanide** » Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:32 pm

Annexing Lincoln?

Garrett · Post by **Garrett** » Wed Nov 04, 2015 10:16 pm

RNcyanide wrote:Annexing Lincoln?

Not enough. Des Moines though...

GoBigRed79 · Post by **GoBigRed79** » Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:45 am

Any Chance that Omaha and Lincoln could be combined into one MSA like Dallas-Ft. Worth or Minneapolis-St.Paul?

Linkin5 · Post by **Linkin5** » Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:50 am

GoBigRed79 wrote:Any Chance that Omaha and Lincoln could be combined into one MSA like Dallas-Ft. Worth or Minneapolis-St.Paul?

Some day, the commuter rates between each city are not high enough right now.

RNcyanide · Post by **RNcyanide** » Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:19 pm

It would depend on if places like Greenwood and Ashland can start drawing people in, too.

Athomsfere · Post by **Athomsfere** » Fri Nov 06, 2015 6:11 am

GoBigRed79 wrote:Any Chance that Omaha and Lincoln could be combined into one MSA like Dallas-Ft. Worth or Minneapolis-St.Paul?

I agree someday, if Omaha and Lincoln keep up their current growth rates I'd say in ~30 years... Even at that at current growth rates that would still be a CSA of 1.6 million (quick mental math) so a big gap from KC MSA's current size.

Stargazer · Post by **Stargazer** » Sun Nov 08, 2015 10:59 pm

I don't really see Omaha ever catching up with KC. KC is growing from within, they annexed the Northland years ago (that's why their density is so 'low'), while Omaha is only growing by annexation. I don't know how you could ever describe KC as 'hemorrhaging'. I expect their inner city growth to explode as well, with completion of their light rail.

This is no contest, be happy we're seeing continued moderate growth of our own.

Greg S · Post by **Greg S** » Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:28 am

GoBigRed79 wrote:Any Chance that Omaha and Lincoln could be combined into one MSA like Dallas-Ft. Worth or Minneapolis-St.Paul?

Would we be the urban sprawl undisputed champs then?

TitosBuritoBarn · Post by **TitosBuritoBarn** » Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:08 pm

Growing together doesn't necessarily mean that Omaha and Lincoln would become one metro. Los Angeles and Riverside-San Bernardino are two separate metros, but have contiguous urban development. Same with San Francisco-Oakland and San Jose.

OmahaOmaha · Post by **OmahaOmaha** » Mon Nov 09, 2015 4:16 pm

With the improved economy, the massive European Village project will be getting under way soon... millions of square feet of executive office space, a couple million square feet of commercial space, up to ten thousand apartments and condos, a theater district for broadway shows, thousands of hotel rooms, convention center, amusement park, medical research park, indoor water park and aquarium, indoor zoo, Ikea, Macy's, Nordstroms, Neiman Marcus, 600 ft observation tower, museum district, etc.. This might explain why there will be a huge population explosion soon. Expect an announcement in the next 30-90 days. Hahaha.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:59 pm

I see no evidence that metro Omaha is growing much more than 1.0% per year. How that represents an "explosion" is beyond my comprehension. Why is that word even used in the title of this thread?

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Mon Nov 09, 2015 10:15 pm

Easy answer is the rumor is simply false, unless it's happening in a parallel universe where an inland see has formed west of Gretna and 14,000 foot mountains have risen 30 miles east of Council Bluffs.

MTO · Post by **MTO** » Mon Nov 09, 2015 11:00 pm

It was probably one of those "drunk-uncle" kinda utterances. According to the census data Omaha has been growing faster than KC. Omaha's strong economy, shortage of skilled workers and so forth it should be growing faster why it's not is a head scratcher. But given national trends and these local factors the growth rate should tick up but explode that's more of a Des Moines thing.

daveoma · Post by **daveoma** » Tue Nov 10, 2015 2:06 am

nativeomahan wrote:I see no evidence that metro Omaha is growing much more than 1.0% per year. How that represents an "explosion" is beyond my comprehension. Why is that word even used in the title of this thread?

According to the US Census the Omaha metro increased in population by 12.8%. http://www.census.gov/population/www/ce ... h-t-5.html

Also according to the US Census population estimates the population of Omaha proper has risen 5.5% between 2010 & 2014.
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/31/3137000.html

It appears at least one journalist in KC is distressed by these facts:
http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/opn-c ... 65205.html

Greg S · Post by **Greg S** » Tue Nov 10, 2015 10:45 am

daveoma wrote:
nativeomahan wrote:I see no evidence that metro Omaha is growing much more than 1.0% per year. How that represents an "explosion" is beyond my comprehension. Why is that word even used in the title of this thread?
According to the US Census the Omaha metro undressed in population by 12.8%. http://www.census.gov/population/www/ce ... h-t-5.html

Also according to the US Census population estimates the population of Omaha proper has risen 5.5% between 2010 & 2014.
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/31/3137000.html

It appears at least one journalist in KC is distressed by these facts:
http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/opn-c ... 65205.html

Overall, this is a bogus thread. There is no upcoming population explosion coming to Omaha.

Even in this post that shows Omaha growing at 12.8, the KC area is growing at 10.9. With these, the Omaha metro grew at 98k, while KC metro grew at 198k (in other words their metro population grew by 100k more).

Greg

MTO · Post by **MTO** » Thu Nov 19, 2015 11:08 pm

For what it's worth the housing stock has slowing atrophied through the past year....

daveoma · Post by **daveoma** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 7:23 pm

MTO wrote:For what it's worth the housing stock has slowing atrophied through the past year....

Does that mean there is a shortage of houses or an abundance of houses?

MTO · Post by **MTO** » Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:01 pm

Slowly shrunk

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Sat Nov 21, 2015 3:26 pm

MTO wrote:Slowly shrunk

Meaning there are fewer houses total? Or fewer houses available?

MadMartin8 · Post by **MadMartin8** » Sat Nov 21, 2015 4:33 pm

MTO wrote:Slowly shrunk

Well, it is cold outside...

MTO · Post by **MTO** » Sat Nov 21, 2015 9:50 pm

Louie wrote:
MTO wrote:Slowly shrunk
Meaning there are fewer houses total? Or fewer houses available?

Ah my bad I'm referring to listings.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Sun Nov 22, 2015 8:33 am

MTO wrote:
Louie wrote:
MTO wrote:Slowly shrunk
Meaning there are fewer houses total? Or fewer houses available?
Ah my bad I'm referring to listings.

That's what I figured, just wanted to make sure.

MTO · Post by **MTO** » Sun Nov 22, 2015 8:55 am

Louie wrote:
MTO wrote:
Louie wrote:
MTO wrote:Slowly shrunk
Meaning there are fewer houses total? Or fewer houses available?
Ah my bad I'm referring to listings.
That's what I figured, just wanted to make sure.

Don't want anyone to think they're tearing down houses all of a sudden.

Joe_Sovereign · Post by **Joe_Sovereign** » Mon Nov 30, 2015 11:10 am

There is no normal reason that Omaha would grow in some radical way. That is why I answered the question of what could cause a population explosion with a farfetched answer of 200,000 refugees.
There are only two scenarios I can imagine that could cause it and both are incredibly far fetched.
One would be mass migration due to some natural or man made disaster although why Omaha would become the sole destination I don't know.
The second scenario would be some kind of technologic or cultural revolution centered on Omaha. Radical world changing technology invented by an Omaha company whose monopoly on such a wonder product allowed it to draw workers and related businesses to Omaha rather than the Company having to move it's production or other facilities to more competitive areas. A cultural phenomenon such as a brand new massively popular music genre emerging from Omaha or a massively popular new religion or religious leader headquartered in Omaha could lead to a population explosion.
They all seem very unlikely and they are extremely hard to predict.