2018 Severe Weather Thread

[Brad]

Mike Seidel from the Weather Channel was just reporting Live from the Gallup campus.

[Silverspoon]

Lets hope we get some good storms! Ill be outside in the thick of it if it shows up around Boys Town.

[iamjacobm]

Reports of a tornado east of GI and 1.75 inch hail in Hastings.

[BRoss]

Can't wait! This is my favorite time of year. Although I now have a house, so hopefully there will be no damage.

[Silverspoon]

Can't wait! This is my favorite time of year. Although I now have a house, so hopefully there will be no damage.

Eh, insurance covers it.

[Coyote]

He's baaack:

[youtube][/youtube]

[Coyote]

Looks like Omaha just missed the second wave of this evening's storm:

image.jpeg

[jessep28]

The storms stayed North and West of where I am in Farmville, and we didn't get any rain. It looks like we'll have to start running pivots to water in herbicide.

[Busguy2010]

It was very underwhelming. Based on the forecast, I was expecting way more rain and something worth turning my attention to. The big storms were north and south of Omaha, with a perfect clearing for us. I love me some mean thunderstorms, so I'm a bit disappointed, though, I know we'll get ours soon enough.

[BRoss]

I'm very disappointed too. Got some thunder and a little rain few a few minutes but that was it. Just my luck...

[GetUrban]

Once again, the weather doesn't live up to the hype! The most exciting storms seem to always be the least expected.

[Coyote]

And from what I can tell we only received 0.09: of rain, making us still about 1.72" under average.

[Silverspoon]

I got nothing until I heard consistent thunder after 2 am in Trendwood.

[skinzfan23]

I don't have a rain gauge, but it seemed like we got quite a bit of rain in Bellevue.

[Coyote]

Looks like another miss tonight:

image.jpeg

[Busguy2010]

I got a good bit of rain at 72nd & Blondo in the later evening hours 7, 8, 9. Still, another miss for us severe storm lovers. There are more severe storms forecast for tomorrow around 3, 4, 5, 6. We will see how it pans out.

I mainly want a good downpour. I don't expect to see supercells until mid June and early July. Although, there was that very serious storm on May 11th 2014. I still view that storm as our greatest threat since I've been tracking, because that storm produced a 1.3 mile wide EF 3 tornado and was still a very severe thunderstorm with a likely tornado on a direct track into Omaha. That was the last time I remember feeling threatened. For the most part, we get lines of strong thunderstorms, with occasional weak gust front tornadoes.

I've noticed, since we're pretty far north, we get our most severe weather in June, whereas Oklahoma and Kansas are mainly in May, and they get it way worse than us.

[RockHarbor]

I'll be watching this thread.... That's a major thing I miss living away from Omaha, is that unpredictable, dramatic weather on the Plains. (Although, I don't feel Omaha's storms are quite the same as they were growing up. I talked to a main Omaha weatherman before I left, and he feels like the storms are maybe getting worse. I feel they are maybe more soppy, drenching & windy, but I just don't feel Omaha gets as many tornado watches as I remember growing up.) Anyways, this thread will be interesting to watch thru the spring & summer months...

P.S. Some of the neatest tornado images in recent years (imo) come from the Pilger, NE "twin twisters" event.
http://america.aljazeera.com/content/aj ... eshow2.jpg

http://www.meteoweb.eu/wp-content/uploa ... -storm.jpg

http://www.silverliningtours.com/wp-con ... e-16-8.jpg

[Busguy2010]

Looks like tomorrow will be our highest potential day of the year so far. Wish I knew how to put a screenshot here, but here's the link anyway

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

[Coyote]

[Busguy2010]

Here is another forecast to read

[Busguy2010]

Later today (technically) may or may not be a day to pay attention. It's not real impressive, but the potential is the highest yet this year. Usually we'll see a moderate or high risk for severe weather about a month from now. That's what I'm watching for and today (technically) could be a good warm up for the truly severe weather we expect every year.

[Busguy2010]

They shifted the higher risk further southeast now, so we'll see what we get.

[RockHarbor]

Later today (technically) may or may not be a day to pay attention. It's not real impressive, but the potential is the highest yet this year. Usually we'll see a moderate or high risk for severe weather about a month from now. That's what I'm watching for and today (technically) could be a good warm up for the truly severe weather we expect every year.

I dont care what anybody says; the severe weather patterns I remember (growing up in Nebraska) are not the same. Most years, by mid May, we had some severe weather outbreak, at least 1-2 tornado watches. That threat (and its beeping sounds on TV) started in March to April, and persisted thru June, and started fading in July. Now, if anticipating it, you can literally "twiddle your thumbs" waiting for severe weather to come in Omaha, and if it does come, it usually is disappointing. The forecast seems often "off" half the time -- a prediction of severe storms can fizzle into a reality of not hardly a cloud in the sky all evening. The TV hardly beeps anymore. I talked to a major weather man in Omaha, and asked him about all this, and he thought maybe the storms were getting worse in Omaha. (??) I was like: "Really? No they arent..." (lol) He's not from Omaha, though, and I'm not talking Jim Flowers (who's been in Omaha for years). I agree that a severe thunderstorm does maybe seem more like a "small hurricane" (soppy, drenching, very windy) in Nebraska compared to growing up, but I dont feel the storm pattern is necessarily worse. Ive had others agree with me on this. ***Its so great to be around cell towers/service again!! Ive been on vaca for a week, with no service. I see some of my threads havent moved a bit. Lol ***

[Busguy2010]

These forecasts have been super disappointing. We've had what, 4 or 5 forecasted downpours with severe thunderstorms so far this year and we havent gotten but an inch of rain. Part of me wants to predict that at some point, all this dry weather will made up for by one system on one day that will produce 3-5" of rain all at once. Or we will get our severe weather, and it'll be really bad, like a real tornado.

I just looked to be sure, we are 3.8" behind for the month of May alone.

[GenX]

In my opinion, this is a large reason why our severe weather has changed in Eastern Nebraska:

100th Meridian, Which Divides the Arid West From the More Humid East, May Be Shifting Because of Climate Change

[Busguy2010]

In my opinion, this is a large reason why our severe weather has changed in Eastern Nebraska:

I never knew there was a name for the change in foliage as you travel westward through Nebraska.

My memory of severe storms goes back to 2007. Since then, the vast majority of our severe storms have been parts of squall lines. The only isolated supercell that posed a direct tornadic threat to us was on May 11, 2014. I'm sure we all remember the mamatus clouds from that day.

I'm really interested in learning about direct experiences before my time. If anybody has some detailed stories to share from before 2007, I am a thankful brain.

Some perspective though: in 2012, it didn't rain from June 20th to August 7th. That was brutal, but compare it to this year so far, we're not doing so bad.

[GetUrban]

When all else fails, it's always fun to talk about the weather!

In my opinion, people can really underestimate the potential variability of weather in our region. The 2012 drought is a good example. It followed the 2011 record floods on the upper Missouri River basin. The floods of 1993 are another event that I remember well. That July it seemed like we had intense drenching thunderstorms with nearly constant continuous lightning every single night. Back then they said it was related to El nino' which may be related to 11-year sunspot cycles. While others say it is related to man-induced climate change. I'm not a doubter of that science. One thing for sure, is the patterns are probably a lot more complicated and random than we can ever hope to predict with any degree of certainty.

It seems like our weather the last few months has been dominated by cut-off upper-level, mid level, and surface lows that just sit over an area for days or weeks, so the normal flow of low pressure frontal systems moving west to east with their associated thunderstorms across our region isn't happening as often and they seem to be missing Omaha when they do occur.

Here's some info about historic floods in Omaha...

https://semspub.epa.gov/work/07/30022840.pdf

[Busguy2010]

The rain we just got goes to show we just don't know. There was a only a 30% chance of rain for today as of last night, and we got a really good rain. About .7" this morning.

[nebugeater]

The rain we just got goes to show we just don't know. There was a only a 30% chance of rain for today as of last night, and we got a really good rain. About .7" this morning.

Spotty

Here in Gretna it was about 0.15 total

[RockHarbor]

Just like the winters in Omaha are inarguably different -- kids get out of school for 3 inches of snow in Omaha now, yet growing up, there would have had to been at least 8-9 inches of snow to have school canceled -- so is the summer/spring weather different, imo. To me, it seems like Omaha has probably gotten drier & sunnier in all seasons. (I want to look at rainfall totals over the years, and check if Im right.)

To me, Omaha is more sure-to-be-sunny nowadays, more like Denver, than it used to be. Growing up, cloudy spells & rain/snow could really linger in winter & summer, making Omaha seem gloomier overall -- although never like Seattle. (I remember coming back from Seattle once in the mid 90's, and Omaha had a week of gray fog & rain, and people blamed me for bringing the weather back from Seattle. You never see that long, depressing grey spell in Omaha anymore, in my view. Back then, it would happen now & then. A cloudy spell for 2-3+ days in the summer or winters was never uncommon.) The climate & weater feels more drier & sterile-like, & more unpotent, like something natural has been tainted, shifting normal weather patterns. Maybe global warming?

This "the storms are getting worse..." talk is driving me crazy. How are they getting so much worse? If they were, why are the sirens and beeps on the TV less than they used to be? Yes, where are all the exciting weather bulletins/beeps that used to be on TV, prompting the family to gather round, and all the lightning, the watches & warnings, the eerie sirens blaring -- sometimes with lightning flashing & thunder booming at even 1am, 2am, 3am? Some years were worse than others in the severe weather department growing up, but still...

Where are all the big, juicy grasshoppers that used to be hopping all over by July? (Now, they arent around. Sometimes you see little dinky ones, though. I can't take credit for noticing that. I overlooked that, and somebody local pointed that out to me.) Where are the beautiful lightning bugs? (I drove from Omaha to Sidney last late summer, all day thru tall cornfields, and I had 2-3 bug splats on my windshield. That is not normal. Our windshield would be covered driving across the entire state by mid summer growing up.) Something seems different to me.

***I sometimes wonder if insurance companies pay "them" to hold back storms, tornadoes, hail, ect. Or, if the weather is played with, so less population move off to the now-enormous Sunbelt cities, and the climate is more attractive in the Midwest, the Plains, the Rustbelt. There is more sun, warmer winters, less snow, less tornadoes & blizzards. I think Omaha's weather/climate is better & less harsh than it used to be. Just a thought. Who knows... ***

[Busguy2010]

I think Omaha's weather/climate is better & less harsh than it used to be. Just a thought.

I'm a gardener who relies on the weather through the good and the bad, The only reliable conclusion I've met so far is I can't count on our weather. This year had a pretty late last frost, followed by a sudden heat up to 85, then a sudden cool down to 55, then back to 90.

Bottom line is we're in an unpredictable zone. We're sort of in the plains, yet we have the hills and the foliage. Who knows?

[GetUrban]

Here's some historical data for weather nerds to chew on...

https://nsco.unl.edu/docs/other/NE_annu ... series.pdf
https://nsco.unl.edu/docs/other/NE_annu ... series.pdf

https://nsco.unl.edu/climate-data

Looks like the trends for departure from normal temp and precipitation the last few years have been higher than historical averages.

[Busguy2010]

Again, a nice few hour soaking rain headed directly toward Omaha appears to be splitting up as it approaches us.

[Busguy2010]

With all the misses we've had this year, I changed to believing the convective outlook only on the day of a possible event. Yesterday the potential was farther north and west, and today they moved it closer to us. I'll be checking it later in the evening as it will likely change, but as of right now there appears to be a high probability of rain and high winds.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Omaha Cowboy]

With all the misses we've had this year, I changed to believing the convective outlook only on the day of a possible event. Yesterday the potential was farther north and west, and today they moved it closer to us. I'll be checking it later in the evening as it will likely change, but as of right now there appears to be a high probability of rain and high winds.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Looks like the Omaha and Lincoln metro’s are sitting in the enhanced risk area..

Leaving hail/high winds out of the equation, we could use another inch or so of rainfall. The weather tonight should be interesting...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Busguy2010]

https://www.weather.gov/oax/weatherstory

They haven't put out a weather story yet this year, so hopefully they're confident it'll rain. Looks like were at marginal risk of hail, but they put us at best risk for 75+ mph winds. That has me thinking it'll be a squall line moving through. The heat today should only fuel what we do get.

[Busguy2010]

Good rain that was! 1.3" The thunder and lightning of it was kind of weak where I'm at. The winds were pretty high here, but it looked like there was a pretty significant push out in the line indicating some pretty serious wind gusts just to the southwest of town. Overall, the good wet storm we needed.

[Coyote]

1.2 at Eppley puts 2018 at 8.33 which is still below the year to date average of 11.61

[zippy]

2.5" near 144th and Center, with lots of small branches down.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Good rain that was! 1.3" Overall, the good wet storm we needed.

I know my yard appreciated it. No hail made it a good wet event indeed ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace