2018 Severe Weather Thread

[Busguy2010]

OMGosh, you guys! So exciting to hear & see... Amazing pic.

Still, this wasn't "the one". I know what you're thinking of... A hot, mid 90 degree sunny day with some casual looking clouds building out west. Then before you realize it, the whole horizon turns a dark gray-blue, and you hear threatingly deep and often bellows of thunder off in the distance. But everything around you is still quiet. Even though it's still completely dry where you are, the winds start to make the leaves writhe with anticipation. You know whats coming... The sirens sound for a few minutes only to excite you, and then go quiet again, reveling that eerie moment you dream of. That moment where all you notice is the leaves dancing and the deep booming getting louder and more imposing upon you. You see the dark blue-gray-green sky overcoming you, as the winds and rain simultaneously overwhelm you into a state of awe. You retreat while it gains strength and shakes every large old tree, and solid old building you've respected in your life. The rain and winds drown you, as they relentlessly pound you, while you sit helpless, hoping you'll make it through... Then, suddenly the onslaught ends. You made it. You come out and see that the storm has spared you, but maybe not your neighbors. The storm shows you its beautiful backside, illuminated by the sunset, reminding you of what you just endured. As excited as you are from the thrill of surviving this one, you'll be forever weary of "the one" you might not live to see the beauty in.

[stormchaser]

Additional pics including a possible wedge and voticies from a mostly rain wrapped multi vortex tornado right next to us...

[stormchaser]

OMGosh, you guys! So exciting to hear & see... Amazing pic.

Still, this wasn't "the one". I know what you're thinking of... A hot, mid 90 degree sunny day with some casual looking clouds building out west. Then before you realize it, the whole horizon turns a dark gray-blue, and you hear threatingly deep and often bellows of thunder off in the distance. But everything around you is still quiet. Even though it's still completely dry where you are, the winds start to make the leaves writhe with anticipation. You know whats coming... The sirens sound for a few minutes only to excite you, and then go quiet again, reveling that eerie moment you dream of. That moment where all you notice is the leaves dancing and the deep booming getting louder and more imposing upon you. You see the dark blue-gray-green sky overcoming you, as the winds and rain simultaneously overwhelm you into a state of awe. You retreat while it gains strength and shakes every large old tree, and solid old building you've respected in your life. The rain and winds drown you, as they relentlessly pound you, while you sit helpless, hoping you'll make it through... Then, suddenly the onslaught ends. You made it. You come out and see that the storm has spared you, but maybe not your neighbors. The storm shows you its beautiful backside, illuminated by the sunset, reminding you of what you just endured. As excited as you are from the thrill of surviving this one, you'll be forever weary of "the one" you might not live to see the beauty in.

Wow, well written

[RockHarbor]

OMGosh, you guys! So exciting to hear & see... Amazing pic.

Still, this wasn't "the one". I know what you're thinking of... A hot, mid 90 degree sunny day with some casual looking clouds building out west. Then before you realize it, the whole horizon turns a dark gray-blue, and you hear threatingly deep and often bellows of thunder off in the distance. But everything around you is still quiet. Even though it's still completely dry where you are, the winds start to make the leaves writhe with anticipation. You know whats coming... The sirens sound for a few minutes only to excite you, and then go quiet again, reveling that eerie moment you dream of. That moment where all you notice is the leaves dancing and the deep booming getting louder and more imposing upon you. You see the dark blue-gray-green sky overcoming you, as the winds and rain simultaneously overwhelm you into a state of awe. You retreat while it gains strength and shakes every large old tree, and solid old building you've respected in your life. The rain and winds drown you, as they relentlessly pound you, while you sit helpless, hoping you'll make it through... Then, suddenly the onslaught ends. You made it. You come out and see that the storm has spared you, but maybe not your neighbors. The storm shows you its beautiful backside, illuminated by the sunset, reminding you of what you just endured. As excited as you are from the thrill of surviving this one, you'll be forever weary of "the one" you might not live to see the beauty in.

Exactly! You described it accurately & perfectly. Yes, well written! It's funny...because your entry here reminds me so much of last summer when that small tornado hit Capehart. We had a chance for severe weather, and I had my typical "skip in my step" all day, and the day had maybe a little bit of that odd look & feel... And, my job required me to work all over town then, and that day, I had to work out near 204th & Q -- so I was excited about being on Omaha's western edge with the anticipated storms coming. Anyways, they did arrive, and they were dark, ugly, and scary, and the winds were verocious, and the sirens added to the fear I suddenly had within, cowering below a desk, saying "Dummy... Why'd you wish for this?" to myself. Eventually the storm passed, and I breathed a sigh of relief. I try to remember that fear anytime I see a severe threat now -- although I still cannot help but get excited. These storms are not typical in the daily humdrum of life. Love those additional pics! Thanks for posting. I was so thrilled to see that pic of the small twister by Louisville especially...

[GetUrban]

Here are some NOAA stats for tornadoes in Douglas Co. since 1950. Bottom line is it looks like they've been more common since 2008, although that goes against the apparent earlier consensus in this thread.

Douglas County Tornado stats

[damonhynes]

Good job, hoss!

[damonhynes]

Here are some NOAA stats for tornadoes in Douglas Co. since 1950. Bottom line is it looks like they've been more common since 2008, although that goes against the apparent earlier consensus in this thread.

Douglas County Tornado stats

More people to see them. Those 0s and 1s which would have been ignored back in the 1950s-70s are getting recorded now.

[RockHarbor]

Here are some NOAA stats for tornadoes in Douglas Co. since 1950. Bottom line is it looks like they've been more common since 2008, although that goes against the apparent earlier consensus in this thread.

Douglas County Tornado stats

I'm so glad you posted this data, because it makes me reconsider that tornadoes (at least very weak ones) may be getting more frequent. Interesting. It doesnt seem that way to me. (Do people not agree that there seems to be less tornado watches & sirens nowadays?) However, there are basically 4 events since 2008, since 3 F0 tornadoes in one storm feel like "one event." (That Boystown event in 4/16 is a perfect example of feeling like 1 twister, instead of 3). As pointed out: The multiple F0s involved in one storm event may have been ignored back then, making those years have less entries. Also, with the perimeters of Douglas County present here, this chart is not including the Capehart tornado of last summer, nor the Council Bluffs tornado of July 1988. Im wondering what the chart would look like if surrounding counties of the Omaha area were included.

[Busguy2010]

Wow, well written

Don't know what got into me. I just started typing I totally put myself in that moment and had to see it through.

[Busguy2010]

Here are some NOAA stats for tornadoes in Douglas Co. since 1950. Bottom line is it looks like they've been more common since 2008, although that goes against the apparent earlier consensus in this thread.

Douglas County Tornado stats

Thanks for the info. I'm in the camp with the other two. Though they technically consider each touchdown an individual tornado, I personally recognize those last three as one. Also, though technically a tornado, an EF0 barely registers so might as well leave em out IMO.

Oh and how on earth were there no tornadoes from 1991 to 2008?

[Busguy2010]

Do people not agree that there seems to be less tornado watches & sirens nowadays?

Don't know, my bank only goes back to 2008. All I can say is since then, the sirens have rarely gone off for a direct tornado event. The only events I consider worthy of the sirens were last June, 4/27/2016, May 11th 2014, and the 2008 Millard tornadoes. But they go off all the time for gust fronts, and when the conditions might spin something up, probably twice a year on average.

I'm surprised we haven't had one of "those" storms yet this year. Yesterday came close, if only they developed farther northwest of town, it would have been one of them days.

[Busguy2010]

Ill post my pics mainly for the out of towners since they aren't of anything significant, but might give you that feel.


This is north of Neola looking southeast oward a cell I think went tornadic later



This is looking at the backside of the tornado producer



Of course, the post carnage mamatus that we all saw.

[Busguy2010]

Stormchaser I know posted this on fb

[Busguy2010]

What was your orientation to this?

[GetUrban]

Here are some NOAA stats for tornadoes in Douglas Co. since 1950. Bottom line is it looks like they've been more common since 2008, although that goes against the apparent earlier consensus in this thread.

Douglas County Tornado stats

Thanks for the info. I'm in the camp with the other two. Though they technically consider each touchdown an individual tornado, I personally recognize those last three as one. Also, though technically a tornado, an EF0 barely registers so might as well leave em out IMO.

Oh and how on earth were there no tornadoes from 1991 to 2008?

I remember that long stretch between 1991 and 2008 with no tornadoes, at least in Douglas County. There were some big rain events and non-tornadic storms though, especially in 1993. I should do a run for Sarpy County too, although they both usually have warnings issued together. That might fill-in more of the blanks. I think our memories of tornado events and their general frequencies of occurrence probably relates to our individual age at the time and stage of life we were in, and what we were doing when they hit. I'll stick with the stats Jack....EF0-EF5

I haven't looked, but they need to explain why those last 3 are counted as separate, yet so close in time. Maybe they were just separate touchdowns miles apart but from the same mesocyclone. They have a "funnel cloud" category too.

[Busguy2010]

I remember that long stretch between 1991 and 2008 with no tornadoes, at least in Douglas County.

Wow, that's unbelievable.

I should do a run for Sarpy County too, although they both usually have warnings issued together. That might fill-in more of the blanks.

I bet if you did a compilation of all our neighboring counties, it would seem a bit more correct. "We" get tornadoes fairly often. Even if they occurred in a neighboring county, the whole parent storm usually impacts the region to a significant enough degree that we remember it as "our" tornado event. At least I think. A few examples would include yesterday, the Offutt tornadoes last year, that tornado over lake manawa a couple years ago. I recall more than a few occasions over my life where there were tornado warnings close enough that Omaha had to keep an eye out for them.

Maybe they were just separate touchdowns miles apart but from the same mesocyclone.

That's exactly what I think it is. Technically they have to count them as separate due to the criteria of a tornado having to touch the ground in order to be considered a tornado. But if you watched it, you'd say "come on, that was the same tornado" and that's exactly what I thought when I saw it classified at three separate.

[stormchaser]

What was your orientation to this?

A few miles east of Louisville just off 66 on a gravel road looking west. Here's my video of one of the brief spin ups -

[RockHarbor]

Here are some NOAA stats for tornadoes in Douglas Co. since 1950. Bottom line is it looks like they've been more common since 2008, although that goes against the apparent earlier consensus in this thread.

Douglas County Tornado stats

Thanks for the info. I'm in the camp with the other two. Though they technically consider each touchdown an individual tornado, I personally recognize those last three as one. Also, though technically a tornado, an EF0 barely registers so might as well leave em out IMO.

Oh and how on earth were there no tornadoes from 1991 to 2008?

I remember that long stretch between 1991 and 2008 with no tornadoes, at least in Douglas County. There were some big rain events and non-tornadic storms though, especially in 1993. I should do a run for Sarpy County too, although they both usually have warnings issued together. That might fill-in more of the blanks. I think our memories of tornado events and their general frequencies of occurrence probably relates to our individual age at the time and stage of life we were in, and what we were doing when they hit. I'll stick with the stats Jack....EF0-EF5

I haven't looked, but they need to explain why those last 3 are counted as separate, yet so close in time. Maybe they were just separate touchdowns miles apart but from the same mesocyclone. They have a "funnel cloud" category too.

Sure about sticking w/ the stats, rather than memories & feelings... I'm certainly with you on that. Yet, we can't draw absolute conclusions based on what has touched down in the limited rectangle of Douglas County (especially per that record that could have some past inaccuracies). Maybe in the "game of chance", there has happened to be more weak tornado touchdowns in more recent years IN Douglas County, but what about Eastern NE/Western IA as a whole? I'm not convinced there are more tornadoes in the region until I look at the data of the entire region as a whole. As a reminder: Severe storm activity in the whole Eastern NE/Western IA region causes the Omahan's TV to beep & alert & warn. My memories growing up are based on beeps/watches/warnings relating to the whole region around Omaha. Therefore, stats would be awesome to see for the whole region. Is there anywhere to see those? (BTW, I don't know about you all, but the realization of Omaha typically not having a "real tornado" for long periods of time isn't anything I personally didnt already know. Sixty years passed between 1913 & 1975. In fact, Ive read that a bad tornado is expected to happen in the Omaha area around every 60 years -- while Okla City is around every 10 years. But, then again: Is that simply an assumption based on the gap between 1913 & 1975? I dont hear about any big tornado around 1850 when the city was founded.)

[RockHarbor]

Do people not agree that there seems to be less tornado watches & sirens nowadays?

Don't know, my bank only goes back to 2008. All I can say is since then, the sirens have rarely gone off for a direct tornado event. The only events I consider worthy of the sirens were last June, 4/27/2016, May 11th 2014, and the 2008 Millard tornadoes. But they go off all the time for gust fronts, and when the conditions might spin something up, probably twice a year on average.

I'm surprised we haven't had one of "those" storms yet this year. Yesterday came close, if only they developed farther northwest of town, it would have been one of them days.

I hear ya. I dont want to go by memories & feelings either. I'm an "information guy", so I like stats a lot. I'm curious if my feelings/thinking is correct or wrong. There have been several & disappointing "roll my eyes" years in Omaha weather-wise, and I dont recall that disappointment growing up (although some years were busier & stormier years than others). I remember one spring/summer (2015, I think) hardly seeing a dang flash of lightning in Omaha, and a connection on FB was posting pictures of lightning in September, when lightning did finally light up the sky. Is that NOT abnormal for Omaha? Omaha usually experiences plenty of lightning thru spring/summer, giving some of us enjoyment, even if no storms are tornadic. (The worst lightning storm I ever experienced was in KC, by the way. It had almost angry, aggressive bolts that felt like they were "out to get you" -- somewhat like the Orlando storm in "Geostorm." I cowarded in the middle of a house. I never experienced intense lightning like that before, and never have since. That experience made me realize how intense & dangerous it can be.)

[Busguy2010]

What's the official read on that? It was a good looking mesocyclone, and I saw a very brief lick, per your video. is the NWS calling that a tornado?

I understand some things happened too quickly to be documented. I heard on the news there was a wedge tornado associated with this storm which obviously wasn't the case.. probably a misinterpretation. Just wondering about the official report.

[stormchaser]

What's the official read on that? It was a good looking mesocyclone, and I saw a very brief lick, per your video. is the NWS calling that a tornado?

I understand some things happened too quickly to be documented. I heard on the news there was a wedge tornado associated with this storm which obviously wasn't the case.. probably a misinterpretation. Just wondering about the official report.

Yep, but I'm sure it will be rated ef0 since I doubt it actually hit anything. I've seen several images showing what appeared to be a wedge. However, we were right next to the lowering in question and it wasn't actually all the way on the ground - it was just a "ground scraping wall cloud" with the occasional brief tornado/vorticy that unless you were right next to it, looked like a wedge (from what I can tell anyway - it was rain wrapped so it is somewhat hard to say for sure - maybe we just somehow missed it while repositioning or something but I doubt it).

[damonhynes]

WFO OAX sez six hoses, all EF-0. No reports from TOP, DMX or EAX.

[nebugeater]

WFO OAX sez six hoses, all EF-0. No reports from TOP, DMX or EAX.

Could you translate to English

[damonhynes]

WFO=Weather Forecast Office
OAX=Omaha
TOP=Topeka
DMX=Des Moines. I love that identifier!
EAX=Kansas City (Pleasant Hill, Mo.)

And in case it comes up,
FSD=Sioux Falls
GID=Hastings/Grand Island

[RockHarbor]

By the way, on the question whether storms are getting worse (and more frequent) or not: I talked to a guy in Springfield, MO today that lived in that area 20 years ago, then moved to an Eastern state for a many number of years, and is now back in Springfield, and he feels like the watches/warnings/beeps have increased since he last lived there, per his memory. So, maybe storms are getting worse & more frequent? Just needed to add that. I so wish I could see data of the entire Eastern NE/Western IA region. I'm willing to look at every county.

[stormchaser]

By the way, on the question whether storms are getting worse (and more frequent) or not: I talked to a guy in Springfield, MO today that lived in that area 20 years ago, then moved to an Eastern state for a many number of years, and is now back in Springfield, and he feels like the watches/warnings/beeps have increased since he last lived there, per his memory. So, maybe storms are getting worse & more frequent? Just needed to add that. I so wish I could see data of the entire Eastern NE/Western IA region. I'm willing to look at every county.

Yeah, I'm not sure I'd be convinced that the frequency has been increasing necessarily. I think the accuracy of warnings and the advent of smart phones, etc has helped make people better informed (or pay closer attention anyway) and consequently makes it maybe seem like warning frequency has increased. Of course on localized levels there may be increases in some locations (but decreases in others).

One site that has a lot of historical info (like number of days since last tornado warning, etc etc) can be found here:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=92

[GetUrban]

Here's a link to a similar report to what I posted before for Tornadoes from 1950-2018, but for more counties in Eastern NE, including Cass, Douglas, Dodge, Lancaster, Sarpy, Saunders, and Washington Counties. A quick initial glance shows a more even distribution through the years. Need to study it more for a while to make any further conclusions.

Eastern Nebraska Tornado events: 1950-2018

[Busguy2010]

Looks like my earlier "prediction" for this week turned out incorrect, to my pleasure. Looks like it'll be quiet till at least Tuesday, but hot as all get out.

[stormchaser]

Looks like my earlier "prediction" for this week turned out incorrect, to my pleasure. Looks like it'll be quiet till at least Tuesday, but hot as all get out.

Yep, in general too hot for storms (too much capping on the atmosphere) with a large ridge in place across our area...

[Busguy2010]

If everything goes according to general history, our window is closing up here soon. Give it 2 or 3 weeks and severe weather will start to taper off, and we'll consistently be dealing with that 100% hot, humid, and sunny weather. The next few weeks will be important if we hope to get our rain total back to average.

I am hoping for two, maybe three more significant rain events by July 9th give or take, then after that there shouldn't be much to expect at all.

[stormchaser]

If everything goes according to general history, our window is closing up here soon. Give it 2 or 3 weeks and severe weather will start to taper off, and we'll consistently be dealing with that 100% hot, humid, and sunny weather. The next few weeks will be important if we hope to get our rain total back to average.

I am hoping for two, maybe three more significant rain events by July 9th give or take, then after that there shouldn't be much to expect at all.

Yeah, things start to transition into more of what most call the "ring of fire" where ridging takes hold in the middle of the country (like we have now) and night time, damaging wind producing storms occur along the northern periphery of the ridge (typically in the Dakotas/MN...but sometimes here as well). That said, we can still get the occasional tornadic setups too in our area...really all the way until at least late September.

[damonhynes]

If everything goes according to general history, our window is closing up here soon. Give it 2 or 3 weeks and severe weather will start to taper off, and we'll consistently be dealing with that 100% hot, humid, and sunny weather. The next few weeks will be important if we hope to get our rain total back to average.

I am hoping for two, maybe three more significant rain events by July 9th give or take, then after that there shouldn't be much to expect at all.

Yeah, things start to transition into more of what most call the "ring of fire" where ridging takes hold in the middle of the country (like we have now) and night time, damaging wind producing storms occur along the northern periphery of the ridge (typically in the Dakotas/MN...but sometimes here as well). That said, we can still get the occasional tornadic setups too in our area...really all the way until at least late September.

I caught two honest-to-$Deity supercell tornadoes in SW IA one late August:

[Busguy2010]

I know there will still be occurrences of severe weather. I remember something around five years ago, there was an outbreak on I think October 4th. Just gonna be expecting clear skies and unbearably hot weather 99% of the time after early July.

Oh yeah, after a quick look, it was October 4th 2013 when the Wayne tornado occurred.

[stormchaser]

If everything goes according to general history, our window is closing up here soon. Give it 2 or 3 weeks and severe weather will start to taper off, and we'll consistently be dealing with that 100% hot, humid, and sunny weather. The next few weeks will be important if we hope to get our rain total back to average.

I am hoping for two, maybe three more significant rain events by July 9th give or take, then after that there shouldn't be much to expect at all.

Yeah, things start to transition into more of what most call the "ring of fire" where ridging takes hold in the middle of the country (like we have now) and night time, damaging wind producing storms occur along the northern periphery of the ridge (typically in the Dakotas/MN...but sometimes here as well). That said, we can still get the occasional tornadic setups too in our area...really all the way until at least late September.

I caught two honest-to-$Deity supercell tornadoes in SW IA one late August:

Nice video! - that meso was definitely spinning pretty good...

[stormchaser]

I know there will still be occurrences of severe weather. I remember something around five years ago, there was an outbreak on I think October 4th. Just gonna be expecting clear skies and unbearably hot weather 99% of the time after early July.

Oh yeah, after a quick look, it was October 4th 2013 when the Wayne tornado occurred.

Yep, I remember that day. I ended up seeing a tornado near Sioux City

[stormchaser]

Severe thunderstorms including the threat for large hail, damaging wind and a tornado or 2 is possible in this specific area (IMO) this afternoon and early evening. Most of the activity should stay north of Omaha but it will be close anyway...

[Busguy2010]

Looking like Sunday into Monday might be a good severe day. It'll be something to keep track of as we get closer.

[stormchaser]

Looking like Sunday into Monday might be a good severe day. It'll be something to keep track of as we get closer.

Yep, tonight probably some severe weather in the area. I actually think there is a decent chance for a "localized" tornado event tomorrow afternoon in or near the Omaha area (granted the tornadoes will likely be relatively weak/brief). Setup is similar to what occurred this past week in central Iowa - just closer to us this time probably...

[Busguy2010]

I was kinda disappointed with how everything fizzled out earlier, but now it looks like a healthy squall line might be building out west.

[Busguy2010]

I was kinda disappointed with how everything fizzled out earlier, but now it looks like a healthy squall line might be building out west.

And of course, it weakened, probably just because I said that