2018/2019 Winter Weather Thread

[stormchaser]

Mods feel free to delete if this isn't okay - just figured it made more sense to start a new thread for winter forecasts instead of continuing to post in the severe weather thread like we have been.

Looking like some rain changing to snow for parts of Nebraska on Thursday - including the Omaha area. Right now snow accumulations look minor for most of eastern Nebraska anyway but maybe an inch or 2 locally in Omaha (depending on timing/track and how long it takes to transition to all snow) with heavier accumulations a bit west of Lincoln.

Posted below is the latest snowfall forecast map from the 12z NAM forecast model. Keep in mind, things will likely change some yet...

[nebugeater]

Makes since to me to have a new thread!

What is your game day forcast for Football in Lincoln Saturday? Mine is Brrrrrrr.

[Busguy2010]

Although snow can be a nuisance, I sure hope we have a couple healthy events in the 6+ range. The last couple of years have been underwhelming as far as I can recall, and I miss a good snowfall that sticks around for a while.

[stormchaser]

Makes since to me to have a new thread!

What is your game day forcast for Football in Lincoln Saturday? Mine is Brrrrrrr.

Yep, looks sunny but cold. Game time temp might still be in the 30s...

[nebugeater]

Although snow can be a nuisance, I sure hope we have a couple healthy events in the 6+ range. The last couple of years have been underwhelming as far as I can recall, and I miss a good snowfall that sticks around for a while.

So your coming to deal with it at work for me then?

[Brad]

Mods feel free to delete if this isn't okay - just figured it made more sense to start a new thread for winter forecasts instead of continuing to post in the severe weather thread like we have been.

Oh yeah, we have one every year.

Looking like some rain changing to snow for parts of Nebraska on Thursday - including the Omaha area. Right now snow accumulations look minor for most of eastern Nebraska anyway but maybe an inch or 2 locally in Omaha (depending on timing/track and how long it takes to transition to all snow) with heavier accumulations a bit west of Lincoln.

Hopefully we get the 2 inches. The "warm" rain changing to snow are my favorite because the snow sticks to everything making for cool photos!

Thanks for posting all your weather info, I love it!

[Omaha Cowboy]

I also like the new and seperate winter weather thread..

For the record, I hope the Omaha area gets ZERO snow this week. But that’s me, I never like any snow.. But I live here..

Go figure, lol...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[stormchaser]

Mods feel free to delete if this isn't okay - just figured it made more sense to start a new thread for winter forecasts instead of continuing to post in the severe weather thread like we have been.

Oh yeah, we have one every year.

Looking like some rain changing to snow for parts of Nebraska on Thursday - including the Omaha area. Right now snow accumulations look minor for most of eastern Nebraska anyway but maybe an inch or 2 locally in Omaha (depending on timing/track and how long it takes to transition to all snow) with heavier accumulations a bit west of Lincoln.

Hopefully we get the 2 inches. The "warm" rain changing to snow are my favorite because the snow sticks to everything making for cool photos!

Thanks for posting all your weather info, I love it!

Yes sir, no problem! I'm sure I'll be wrong more often than right probably but such is life trying to forecast . Speaking of which, Thursday's storm system is trending stronger but also south some which means possibly all snow in Omaha with the "heavier" stuff (albeit still minor) passing south of here (though it will still be the heavy/wet variety that is photogenic). That being said, probably 75%+ of the time models shift things back north within 24 hours of the actual event. It will be interesting to see if that happens in this case. Regardless, accumulations should be fairly minor for most (2"-3" or less in the "heavier" snow swath)...

[stormchaser]

As expected, much of the accumulating snow will stay west and south of Omaha today. Things didn't end up shifting north this time. I'd still expect a dusting of accumulation locally but not a big deal this time...

[Uffda]

As expected, much of the accumulating snow will stay west and south of Omaha today. Things didn't end up shifting north this time. I'd still expect a dusting of accumulation locally but not a big deal this time...

The Omaha Dome is doing its job.

[stormchaser]

As expected, much of the accumulating snow will stay west and south of Omaha today. Things didn't end up shifting north this time. I'd still expect a dusting of accumulation locally but not a big deal this time...

The Omaha Dome is doing its job.

Lol yep, up until late last night and this morning anyway

[Louie]

This morning was an absolute nightmare for anyone who had to commute.

[GetUrban]

This morning was an absolute nightmare for anyone who had to commute.

Yup. 55 mins vs the usual 20-25 on a straight shot south on 72nd. Much worse for some, if you live in West O. How long was everyone else's compared to normal?

[milesej05]

normal 18 minute commute at 6:15am turned into 42 minutes of straight BS. (Harrison St/I-80 to 14th Street exit on I-480)

Thanks NDOR and the City of Omaha

[Bomaha]

15 minutes at about 8:30 from Martha exit to essentially Giles exit, took almost 40 minutes. Traffic was standstill on 480 to 80 west. I ended up just getting all the way over and taking JFK to Cornhusker and taking that all the way west to work at 108 & Harrison.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I’m glad I didn’t have to venture out into that mess this morning..

Most everyone I knew that did, said it was a nightmare.. The major roads, as of this afternoon, are just fine now..

Perhaps I’m wrong, but it seems the local weather meteorologists/city of Omaha were completely caught off guard by this mornings event. No pre-treated roads at all. The interstate and major city streets were a sheet of ice by 7am from what I understand. I know watching the 10pm forecast Thursday night, Omaha was not included in any Winter Weather Advisories. That, of course, changed by 7-8am...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Uffda]

This morning was an absolute nightmare for anyone who had to commute.

I live off of 78th and Sorensen Parkway and travel down to close to 20th & Q every morning. Usually I leave at 640 and roll into work at 7:00. Not today -- left at 6:30 and roll into work at 7:50.

Sorensen Parkway wasn't bad but N 75 to I480 to JFK was a slow crawl and lots of multi-car accidents. What looked like wet payment was glare ice. I noticed as I went by the N75 split to E and W 480 that there were no cars heading up the hill and over that curved bridge to E 480 --- traffic was backed up in the those two lanes but I don't think anyone could get up the hill on that curved overpass -- same thing at the curved overpass from 480 to JFK --- some got stuck trying to slowly go up and over it.

City and State did not treat last night which is weird as last year they treated for everything.

[milesej05]

Perhaps I’m wrong, but it seems the local weather meteorologists/city of Omaha were completely caught off guard by this mornings event. No pre-treated roads at all. The interstate and major city streets were a sheet of ice by 7am from what I understand. I know watching the 10pm forecast Thursday night, Omaha was not included in any Winter Weather Advisories. That, of course, changed by 7-8am...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I'm not sure how you get caught off guard THAT bad when it is your JOB...that is what I don't understand. It's similar to Meterologists being wrong and yet still get to keep their job.

People in Omaha who voted for Mean Jean should be ashamed...not sure how many more years of sub-par planning and non-existent plowing you guys are going to take. I would say they should hold the elections for Mayor during the winter but she would be sure that no plows are out so no one would be able to make it to the polls.

[stormchaser]

Perhaps I’m wrong, but it seems the local weather meteorologists/city of Omaha were completely caught off guard by this mornings event. No pre-treated roads at all. The interstate and major city streets were a sheet of ice by 7am from what I understand. I know watching the 10pm forecast Thursday night, Omaha was not included in any Winter Weather Advisories. That, of course, changed by 7-8am...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I'm not sure how you get caught off guard THAT bad when it is your JOB...that is what I don't understand. It's similar to Meterologists being wrong and yet still get to keep their job.

People in Omaha who voted for Mean Jean should be ashamed...not sure how many more years of sub-par planning and non-existent plowing you guys are going to take. I would say they should hold the elections for Mayor during the winter but she would be sure that no plows are out so no one would be able to make it to the polls.

It's because weather and forecasting isn't an exact science and the atmosphere is EXTREMELY complex. If the littlest thing changes or plays out differently than expected (for example the temp at 850mb level is a degree or 2 warmer or cooler than expected or the air is slightly drier than expected - just 2 of probably thousands of potential variables to consider), it can snowball quickly and COMPLETELY change how things actually happen. In this case, all of the forecast computer models were showing very light snow with little or no accumulation expected over a VERY narrow area late last night/this morning. This time though, the band of snow setup right over Omaha itself and the snow ended up being more intense than expected. It also took longer than expected for the dry air to get here (which eventually killed off the snow once it arrived but the damage had been done already). Unfortunately forecasting the exact locations of these heavier bands of snow though is typically nearly impossible with events like this one. I realize it probably sounds like I'm just making excuses but really I'm just trying to get people to understand the reality of forecasting weather. With today's current technology and our current understanding of the atmosphere, forecasting will never be an exact science and there will be times we will be caught off guard. That being said, the city probably should have been more pro-active with their preparations since there was potential for accumulating snow yesterday much of the day also (though that round went mostly south of Omaha)...

**Rant**
For whatever reason most people think forecasting weather should be or is "easy" and that meteorologists/forecasters are idiots if they aren't spot on pretty much 100% of the time. I assure you it isn't easy. It's EXTREMELY difficult (especially forecasting winter weather as there are TONS of variables that have huge implications on things that may effect relatively widespread areas). To make matters worse, many people use subpar sources to get their weather info (like most weather apps on smartphones) and then only check it once every few days (if even that). It's always easy for people to get upset and complain when meteorologists/forecasters miss on a forecast but rarely do people bother to even acknowledge they are right when they are right (like somehow it's just expected). It's honestly disrespectful and uncalled for though for people to complain like they do IMO. I wish people would learn to forecast themselves. Then they'd truly see how difficult it is and actually appreciate what weather people do. To clarify, I'm not trying to turn this thread into anything drama filled and honestly don't mean to direct my rant at any one person (many people complain) but it is a very touchy subject for me. You'd be surprised how many times I've been out chasing storms, saw a damaging tornado and then stopped a few miles down the road to refuel (after helping with search & rescue) just to listen to locals in the gas station complain that the tornado sirens had sounded and how weather people are always wrong. It's like if the tornado doesn't directly effect them, the warning was somehow wrong...sigh

[Busguy2010]

Perhaps I’m wrong, but it seems the local weather meteorologists/city of Omaha were completely caught off guard by this mornings event. No pre-treated roads at all. The interstate and major city streets were a sheet of ice by 7am from what I understand. I know watching the 10pm forecast Thursday night, Omaha was not included in any Winter Weather Advisories. That, of course, changed by 7-8am...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I'm not sure how you get caught off guard THAT bad when it is your JOB...that is what I don't understand. It's similar to Meterologists being wrong and yet still get to keep their job.

People in Omaha who voted for Mean Jean should be ashamed...not sure how many more years of sub-par planning and non-existent plowing you guys are going to take. I would say they should hold the elections for Mayor during the winter but she would be sure that no plows are out so no one would be able to make it to the polls.

It's because weather and forecasting isn't an exact science... Many people use subpar sources to get their weather info (like most weather apps on smartphones)

Stormchaser, I agree with every word you wrote, but the quoted two points stuck out to me. The general public doesn't understand what happens when things change on a dime and how things usually change quite a bit from 3 days out to 0 minute... Weather apps are completely useless in my view, as is the weather on the 8's on the weather channel. When it comes down to it, the weather is unpredictable and even our best forecasters get it wrong sometimes or half the time. Here's how I look at weather forecasting : "At least we have a way to kinda sorta have a general idea of what might happen a relatively long period of time in advance" See that, there's not a definitive word in that sentence. The general public takes forecasts too literally. Forecasters have it tough, I mean, they take on the burden of trying to predict the practically unpredictable, and when they do get it wrong, they are blamed as if they should have known absolutely definitively what was going to happen and get their jobs called for.

Personally I don't understand the hoopla today I was watching the forecast leading up to the snow and the NWS was consistently predicting approximately 1.1", though it did come down in a shorter period of time and directly over the morning drive... I don't know what the local weather people were saying, but they all use the same models to make their predictions. So its kind of hard to figure out what the real issue is... I'll say its the fact the city didn't prepare when they should have. I mean, I think everyone was pretty confident it was going to snow some, so why didn't they do anything?

The NWS at Eppley reported only .5" and Millard none, but that doesn't seem like an accurate reading. What was the tally then?

Also, this is always how the first snow of the season goes (yeah I know if briefly snowed in October but that was just a little and didn't cause any trouble)

[stormchaser]

Perhaps I’m wrong, but it seems the local weather meteorologists/city of Omaha were completely caught off guard by this mornings event. No pre-treated roads at all. The interstate and major city streets were a sheet of ice by 7am from what I understand. I know watching the 10pm forecast Thursday night, Omaha was not included in any Winter Weather Advisories. That, of course, changed by 7-8am...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I'm not sure how you get caught off guard THAT bad when it is your JOB...that is what I don't understand. It's similar to Meterologists being wrong and yet still get to keep their job.

People in Omaha who voted for Mean Jean should be ashamed...not sure how many more years of sub-par planning and non-existent plowing you guys are going to take. I would say they should hold the elections for Mayor during the winter but she would be sure that no plows are out so no one would be able to make it to the polls.

It's because weather and forecasting isn't an exact science... Many people use subpar sources to get their weather info (like most weather apps on smartphones)

Stormchaser, I agree with every word you wrote, but the quoted two points stuck out to me. The general public doesn't understand what happens when things change on a dime and how things usually change quite a bit from 3 days out to 0 minute... Weather apps are completely useless in my view, as is the weather on the 8's on the weather channel. When it comes down to it, the weather is unpredictable and even our best forecasters get it wrong sometimes or half the time. Here's how I look at weather forecasting : "At least we have a way to kinda sorta have a general idea of what might happen a relatively long period of time in advance" See that, there's not a definitive word in that sentence. The general public takes forecasts too literally. Forecasters have it tough, I mean, they take on the burden of trying to predict the practically unpredictable, and when they do get it wrong, they are blamed as if they should have known absolutely definitively what was going to happen and get their jobs called for.

Personally I don't understand the hoopla today I was watching the forecast leading up to the snow and the NWS was consistently predicting approximately 1.1", though it did come down in a shorter period of time and directly over the morning drive... I don't know what the local weather people were saying, but they all use the same models to make their predictions. So its kind of hard to figure out what the real issue is... I'll say its the fact the city didn't prepare when they should have. I mean, I think everyone was pretty confident it was going to snow some, so why didn't they do anything?

The NWS at Eppley reported only .5" and Millard none, but that doesn't seem like an accurate reading. What was the tally then?

Also, this is always how the first snow of the season goes (yeah I know if briefly snowed in October but that was just a little and didn't cause any trouble)

Most places in our area received between 2"-3" which is very similar to what we got with our first snowfall. The first time, however, the biggest issue was that many trees still had their leaves and the combination of that and the fact temps were near freezing caused the snow to be very heavy/wet which lead to branches falling and consequently power outages. However, this time the issues were mostly from air temps that were in the lower 20s (but with surface temps i.e. roads, etc that were still warm enough to melt snow as it fell) with wind that was relatively strong consequently causing the snow that fell to almost instantly melt and then re-freeze in to large sheets of ice on the roads, bridges, etc (almost like freezing rain but with snow instead). That and the timing during rush hour caused a huge mess...

[Busguy2010]

Most places in our area received between 2"-3" which is very similar to what we got with our first snowfall.

Maybe I need to stop looking at the NWS for snowfall, as their reports have varied quite a bit between this snowfall and the last one (I think they reported approximately an inch of precipitation on the last one)

[stormchaser]

Most places in our area received between 2"-3" which is very similar to what we got with our first snowfall.

Maybe I need to stop looking at the NWS for snowfall, as their reports have varied quite a bit between this snowfall and the last one (I think they reported approximately an inch of precipitation on the last one)

Strange, I wonder why what you're seeing is so different? What I use are snowfall reports via spotters, etc sent to the NWS found here: https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=oax

[Busguy2010]

Strange, I wonder why what you're seeing is so different? What I use are snowfall reports via spotters, etc sent to the NWS found here: https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=oax

I've always just used their 3 day history to find precipitation. I think it works well for rain, but so far not well at all for snow.

[milesej05]

It isn't the fact of not knowing how much, it is knowing that it is coming...which the City of Omaha knew (per their interview). So why not be proactive about it instead of sitting on the taxpayers money.

[Brad]

It isn't the fact of not knowing how much, it is knowing that it is coming...which the City of Omaha knew (per their interview). So why not be proactive about it instead of sitting on the taxpayers money.

Its not a city issue. The Interstate, the West Dodge Expressway, and a few other main routes are plowed and maintained by the State of Nebraska NDOT.

[Omaha Cowboy]

So why not be proactive about it instead of sitting on the taxpayers money.

This I agree with. Whether it be the city, Nebraska NDOT or whomever.. The fact there was a chance this mess could gave happened (and did) the roads and interstates should have been pre treated just in case...

Ciao..LiO...

[jessep28]

Most snow events that happen too close to rush hour typically end up in disaster, regardless of who's in charge.

[stormchaser]

It isn't the fact of not knowing how much, it is knowing that it is coming...which the City of Omaha knew (per their interview). So why not be proactive about it instead of sitting on the taxpayers money.

I understand that, (the amount of snow wasn't the problem and that isn't what I'm saying - just to clarify). NOBODY knew the scenario would play out the way it did.

Like I said in a prior response, the snow that fell was more intense than expected (i.e. a heavier rate of snowfall). Just to clarify, there was actually two separate waves of energy and 2 separate snow events that were expected. The first round thursday morning/afternoon was supposed to be the "main event" but it passed just south of Omaha aside from a few flurries locally. The second round was supposed to be just light snow/flurries over a relatively small area late Thursday/early Friday and wasn't expected to be a big deal. Instead it was. To make matters worse, a fairly unusual scenario played out.

The air temps that morning were in the lower 20s (but with surface temps i.e. roads, etc that were still warm enough to melt snow as it fell) with wind that was relatively strong and snow that was more intense/moisture rich than expected. The combination consequently caused the snow that fell to almost instantly melt and then re-freeze in to large sheets of ice on the roads, bridges, etc (almost like freezing rain in a way but with snow instead). Something that was nearly impossible to predict would happen.

I know it's easy to second guess after the fact, I agree they should have been more proactive (but I'm not responsible for the budget so it's easy for me to say that), but the reality is it simply was a unique and pretty much "worst case scenario" for what would normally be a minor snow event.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Moving on..

In other weather news, looks like tomorrow and Friday will be seasonal with highs in the low 50’s (I might even be able to enjoy an adult beverage or 2 on the patio Friday afternoon ) ..This past Monday was legit cold- mid January type weather..

I do see in the forecast a chance of snow late Friday/early Saturday.. Let’s hope that’s just a mirage...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[stormchaser]

Moving on..

In other weather news, looks like tomorrow and Friday will be seasonal with highs in the low 50’s (I might even be able to enjoy an adult beverage or 2 on the patio Friday afternoon ) ..This past Monday was legit cold- mid January type weather..

I do see in the forecast a chance of snow late Friday/early Saturday.. Let’s hope that’s just a mirage...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Yep, looks very minor with a rain/snow mix probably Friday night/Saturday. Looks like more seasonable temps with mostly highs in the 40s and 50s for the next week (or longer though obviously reliability decreases the further out you look) based on the latest 12z GFS run. First "Nor'easter" in the northeastern states is expected over the next few days will make travel plans a bit challenging for many people...

[Uffda]

I do see in the forecast a chance of snow late Friday/early Saturday.. Let’s hope that’s just a mirage...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Yeah 50s on Friday .... heading for my first Husker game on Saturday .... and going to dig out the long johns..... WOW

[Omaha Cowboy]

Moving on..

In other weather news, looks like tomorrow and Friday will be seasonal with highs in the low 50’s (I might even be able to enjoy an adult beverage or 2 on the patio Friday afternoon ) ..This past Monday was legit cold- mid January type weather..

I do see in the forecast a chance of snow late Friday/early Saturday.. Let’s hope that’s just a mirage...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Yep, looks very minor with a rain/snow mix probably Friday night/Saturday. Looks like more seasonable temps with mostly highs in the 40s and 50s for the next week (or longer though obviously reliability decreases the further out you look) based on the latest 12z GFS run. First "Nor'easter" in the northeastern states is expected over the next few days will make travel plans a bit challenging for many people...

Sounds like a good and promising forecast extending through Thanksgiving week..

Thanks for the update, as always ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Omaha Cowboy]

I do see in the forecast a chance of snow late Friday/early Saturday.. Let’s hope that’s just a mirage...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Yeah 50s on Friday .... heading for my first Husker game on Saturday .... and going to dig out the long johns..... WOW

Excellent.. Let’s hope for a dry kickoff by 11am this Saturday..

I hope you enjoy the experience of your first Husker game.. Mine was in 1970- first game of the season. Huskers vs Wake Forest. I was 9 years old.. It was also future Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Rodgers first game as a Husker. NU won 36-12 and I was hooked..

I remain eternally grateful to my Father ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[stormchaser]

Just a heads up to anyone heading to the game today. Based on latest short range/medium range forecast models, accumulating snow is looking likely for areas probably just south of Omaha this afternoon and tonight including Lincoln, Nebraska City, etc. 1"-3" of snow possible with locally higher amounts. Won't probably be a big deal but may be enough to make things slick in spots anyway... especially with all the wind

[stormchaser]

Accumulating snow tracked a bit further north than what models had shown (not surprising considering how model trends had been gradually shifting the track north with each run - and a shift north is fairly common anyhow). Ended up with between .5 and 1 inch here in Ralston. Definitely it was enough to make things slick (similar scenario as last Friday where snow melted and formed ice). Saw numerous accidents/vehicles in the ditch on I-80 between Lincoln/Omaha yesterday...

Here are the snow reports from yesterday/last night:


And a rollover accident we came across just north of Lincoln:

[stormchaser]

High resolution visible satellite from this morning showing how northern Omaha (and areas north from there) received basically no accumulating snow) but areas of southern Omaha on south did...

[Uffda]

High resolution visible satellite from this morning showing how northern Omaha (and areas north from there) received basically no accumulating snow) but areas of southern Omaha on south did...

I rode with a friend to the game yesterday and at his house off 204th and F the ground was covered with over an inch. When I got home - 72nd and Sorensen area — we had a dusting of snow.

[stormchaser]

Potential significant snow storm next weekend...

It's still a LONG way out but long range models (in particular the ECMWF which is typically the most reliable long range model) is depicting a significant snow storm for our region next weekend. All long range models are in good agreement with showing a significant trough across the middle of the country though track of any potential storm system is still unknown (obviously). Could end up being a full blown blizzard if the current ECMWF run verifies anyway...

Below is what the ECMWF shows for snow totals for the area. Just to stress, this WILL undoubtedly change some, possibly drastically change. Just a heads up for people to keep a close eye on in the coming days.

[Coyote]

Is this a projection of an 8" accumulation?