It’s that time of the year, my favorite time- 2018 metro/CSA population estimates coming in less than 3 weeks!

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:54 am

Ah yes. Arguably, my favorite time of the year is coming in less than 3 weeks on March 22nd.. What will the new 2018 US Census population estimates be for the Omaha CSA and MSA?..

In review, Omaha’s 2017 MSA estimate clocked in at 933,316 with the CSA 2017 estimate at 970,023.. Omaha is closing in on 1 million fast.. What’s your prediction for 2018?..

Calling my shot, I’ll say-

2018 Omaha MSA- 944,553
2018 Omaha CSA- 981,272..

What say you?!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:21 pm

942,000 MSA
980,000 CSA

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:23 am

MSA 943,582
CSA 980,693

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:23 am

According to this US Census link, it looks like we may have to wait until April this year for the 2018 CSA and MSA estimates (usually they’re released on 3/22 most 3very year)-

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys ... edule.html

Oh well, if so, just some extra time for everybody to get their predictions in

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Mar 26, 2019 3:46 am

Just an update- the new 2018 US Census Metro/CSA population estimates will be released Thursday, 4/18/19.. So just 3 weeks away..

Plenty of time for you to get your Omaha CSA and metro population predictions on record here!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **BRoss** » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:52 am

942,001 MSA
979,250 CSA

ita · Post by **ita** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 2:36 pm

944,515 - MSA
980,725 - CSA

TitosBuritoBarn · Post by **TitosBuritoBarn** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:52 pm

HR Paperstacks wrote: Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:52 am 942,001 MSA
979,250 CSA

Garrett · Post by **Garrett** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:46 pm

I’m gonna go with my traditional guess of 1 person.

Post by **BRoss** » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:24 pm

TitosBuritoBarn wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:52 pm

I'm glad someone caught what I did!

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:37 am

Garrett wrote: Thu Mar 28, 2019 5:46 pm I’m gonna go with my traditional guess of 1 person.

Lol. Well, at least you’ve lowballed yourself..

In any case, 3 weeks away from today.. I can’t wait. I suspect a notch higher growth % this year.. Keep those predictions coming!..

I think this measures well. Symmetry between the Omaha Metro hitting 1 million and the state of Nebraska hitting the 2 million mark. The Omaha CSA will hit that 1 million number by the 2020 Census. The metro likely in 2023 followed by the state in 2024...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

buildomaha · Post by **buildomaha** » Fri Mar 29, 2019 10:49 pm

I also think there will an uptick in % growth for the metro this year (and for next years nunbers too).

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:30 am

We’re getting close!..

The new US Census CSA and metro population estimates are coming one week from this Thursday (on April 18th)..

It’s been a long time coming. Usually these estimates come out the 3rd week of March..but for whatever the reason, they were delayed a month this year. As soon as they come out, we’ll post an update here for Omaha and other metros in the region..

Still time to get your Omaha CSA/MSA predictions in! Let’s see who comes closest this year

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun Apr 07, 2019 6:47 pm

Also, I found this metro population braketology game that is pretty fun to play. I got 60 of 63 correct the first time I played it..

It’s a fun game to fill in time before the CSA/MSA estimates come out on the 18th..

From the US Census-

https://www.census.gov/dataviz/visualiz ... /?CID=CBSM

Ciao..LiO...Peace

edsas · Post by **edsas** » Sun Apr 07, 2019 6:57 pm

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 6:47 pm Also, I found this metro population braketology game that is pretty fun to play. I got 60 of 63 correct the first time I played it..

It’s a fun game to fill in time before the CSA/MSA estimates come out on the 18th..

From the US Census-

https://www.census.gov/dataviz/visualiz ... /?CID=CBSM

Ciao..LiO...Peace

59 out of 63. Got tripped on San Francisco being separate from San Jose (otherwise the Bay Area would've won). And I underestimated Orlando a couple times.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:57 pm

edsas wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 6:57 pm
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Sun Apr 07, 2019 6:47 pm Also, I found this metro population braketology game that is pretty fun to play. I got 60 of 63 correct the first time I played it..

It’s a fun game to fill in time before the CSA/MSA estimates come out on the 18th..

From the US Census-

https://www.census.gov/dataviz/visualiz ... /?CID=CBSM

Ciao..LiO...Peace
59 out of 63. Got tripped on San Francisco being separate from San Jose (otherwise the Bay Area would've won). And I underestimated Orlando a couple times.

The game is addicting. I played about ten games today and I’d usually score 60. I couldn’t crack past 60. Then the last game I played, I scored 62 out of 63..

Finally, lol...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:35 pm

Well friends, we are on the eve of the new CSA and metro numbers release.. One last chance to get your predictions in..

As soon as the numbers are available (usually after midnight) we will post the update here for Omaha and other surrounding metros..

Stay tuned

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:26 am

Well, the 2018 Omaha estimate for the metro clocked in at 942,198 adding 9,981 over the 2017 estimate (which is higher than the 9100 added last estimate).. From the early W-H piece just released-

https://www.omaha.com/money/development ... 9f2fd.html

County 2017 2018 Annual increase
Douglas 560,573. 566,880 6,307
Sarpy 181,678 184,459 2,781
Cass 25,904 26,159 255
Saunders 21,019 21,303 284
Washington 20,351 20,667 316
Pottawattamie 93,510 93,533 23
Mills 15,053. 15,063 10
Harrison 14,129 14,134 5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau estimates

This is healthy growth. I’ll add the CSA estimate when I can find it...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:29 am

Additional numbers-

Including Dodge County, the 2018 Omaha CSA estimate clocked in at 978,989.. only about 21,000 away from the 1 million mark..

The Lincoln metro estimate for 2018 is 334,590..

More data to come as the information is released by all media outlets...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:14 pm

Looks like HR Paperstacks gets the sweep. And really nailed it with his Price is Right move on the MSA.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:01 pm

County 2017 2018 Annual increase
Douglas 560,573. 566,880 6,307
Sarpy 181,678 184,459 2,781
Cass 25,904 26,159 255
Saunders 21,019 21,303 284
Washington 20,351 20,667 316
Pottawattamie 93,510 93,533 23
Mills 15,053. 15,063 10
Harrison 14,129 14,134 5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau estimates

I wish the Iowa side of the metro could grow more. With the Loess hills meandering through those three county’s it’s an attractive area. And Glenwood in Mills county is my favorite small town in southwest Iowa as it sits in a hollow in the Loess hills and is a short commute to the metro.

TitosBuritoBarn · Post by **TitosBuritoBarn** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:58 pm

I’m really intrigued by some of the other numbers they’ve highlighted on the website so far. A lot of metros, including many among our most populous legacy metros, lost population last year. Yet many of these places are seeing substantial redevelopment in their more desirable, urban areas. I’m curious how much is due to a shift in demographics from blue collar to white collar or from larger households to smaller ones.

It appears to be something we might even be seeing in Omaha in our own way. There are lower growth numbers in the outer, more suburban counties, yet steady growth in Douglas. Also the number of housing units added last year in Omaha was nearly even on either side of 72nd Street for the first time in decades.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:24 pm

Cermak wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 3:01 pm County 2017 2018 Annual increase
Douglas 560,573. 566,880 6,307
Sarpy 181,678 184,459 2,781
Cass 25,904 26,159 255
Saunders 21,019 21,303 284
Washington 20,351 20,667 316
Pottawattamie 93,510 93,533 23
Mills 15,053. 15,063 10
Harrison 14,129 14,134 5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau estimates

I wish the Iowa side of the metro could grow more. With the Loess hills meandering through those three county’s it’s an attractive area. And Glenwood in Mills county is my favorite small town in southwest Iowa as it sits in a hollow in the Loess hills and is a short commute to the metro.

That is pretty crazy when you have a net growth on a population area of 38 people when the total population is around 120k. And right next to a metro seeing consistent healthy growth.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:27 pm

When do the town/city estimates come out?

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:55 pm

The Omaha CSA grew quite nicely from 969,011 officially in 2017 to 978,989 in 2018.. Lincoln’s CSA grew to 356,083 for 2018.. The tables are out now-

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:57 pm

Louie wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:27 pm When do the town/city estimates come out?

I believe those will come out in July...

Ciao.. LiO...Peace

iamjacobm · Post by **iamjacobm** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 4:57 pm

Omaha is still 59th. Nipping at Bridgeport, CT and Worcester, MA's heels. One more good year round 10K with those two seeing lower growth could jump to 57th. Right ahead of them is Honolulu which took a negative number, but they are still a ways away.

No metro very close below Omaha that is seeing insane growth to overtake Omaha any time soon. Greenville, SC is growing faster than Omaha, but Omaha has a roughly 35K population cushion.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:14 pm

The Omaha-Lincoln combined CSA population is now 1,335,072 per the latest 2018 US Census..

Many of us believe Omaha-Lincoln should be combined. But the US Census in Washington doesn’t recognize it yet. At this point, perhaps they never will.. But this illustrates that the Omaha/Lincoln areas function very much like a 1 million plus population metro due to such close ties in geographic proximity...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:59 pm

I think if Lincoln was about 10 miles closer to Omaha it would be one metro. I wish our TV markets could be combined and have just one big TV market , like Albuquerque and Santa Fe. I’m sure it’s all about money why they remain separate.

Linkin5 · Post by **Linkin5** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 8:20 pm

One interesting note Des Moines has closed the population gap between Omaha by about 18K since 2010.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:19 pm

Cermak wrote: Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:59 pm I think if Lincoln was about 10 miles closer to Omaha it would be one metro. I wish our TV markets could be combined and have just one big TV market , like Albuquerque and Santa Fe. I’m sure it’s all about money why they remain separate.

That won’t happen, because Lincoln has its own ABC, CBS and PBS affiliates. The Hastings NBC station at least until recently has been giving the specific Lincoln weather forecasts as well as for the Tri cities.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:32 am

Some comparative growth numbers for regional CSA’s and MSA’s -

Omaha CSA-
2010: 902,041
2018: 978,989
+ 76,948

Lincoln CSA-
2010: 324,468
2018: 356,083
+ 31,615

Des Moines/Ames CSA-
2010: 722,323
2018: 817,007
+ 94,684

Wichita CSA-
2010- 657,230
2018- 680,106
+ 22,876

Grand Island MSA-
2010- 81,850
2018- 85,088
+ 3,238

Pretty healthy and steady growth throughout the midlands...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:46 am

For a look at the various Top 10 growth areas, see:
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... metro.html

The full list of metros is here:
https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk

I’m just amazed by the growth in Austin. 20 years ago it was roughly the size of Omaha. To grow by almost a half million people in 8 years is hard to imagine. I do know that traffic congestion is among the worst in the nation as a consequence of that growth.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:55 am

nativeomahan wrote: Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:46 am For a look at the various Top 10 growth areas, see:
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... metro.html

I’m just amazed by the growth in Austin. 20 years ago it was roughly the size of Omaha. To grow by almost a half million people in 8 years is hard to imagine. I do know that traffic congestion is among the worst in the nation as a consequence of that growth.

Austin’s growth has been crazy. Having first visited this city in 1999 then going back in 2018, the change was startling to say the least. I hope their infrastructure holds up as their explosive growth continues...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:05 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:55 am
nativeomahan wrote: Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:46 am For a look at the various Top 10 growth areas, see:
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... metro.html

I’m just amazed by the growth in Austin. 20 years ago it was roughly the size of Omaha. To grow by almost a half million people in 8 years is hard to imagine. I do know that traffic congestion is among the worst in the nation as a consequence of that growth.
Austin’s growth has been crazy. Having first visited this city in 1999 then going back in 2018, the change was startling to say the least. I hope their infrastructure holds up as their explosive growth continues...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

It really is crazy, I have read that in 2019 alone they need to open up (not just build) 20k apartment units just to keep up with growth.

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:43 am

I wonder how much bigger Austin will get ? Could hit 2.5 million in the not to distant future if current growth continues, which I suspect it will. Austin will be passing northern cities Cincinnati and Pittsburgh soon. Who would of thought that 20 years ago. Also starting to wonder when Dallas and Houston will pass Chicago, maybe 25 yrs ?

Doctor Fate · Post by **Doctor Fate** » Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:24 am

Louie wrote: Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:05 am
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:55 am
nativeomahan wrote: Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:46 am For a look at the various Top 10 growth areas, see:
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... metro.html

I’m just amazed by the growth in Austin. 20 years ago it was roughly the size of Omaha. To grow by almost a half million people in 8 years is hard to imagine. I do know that traffic congestion is among the worst in the nation as a consequence of that growth.
Austin’s growth has been crazy. Having first visited this city in 1999 then going back in 2018, the change was startling to say the least. I hope their infrastructure holds up as their explosive growth continues...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
It really is crazy, I have read that in 2019 alone they need to open up (not just build) 20k apartment units just to keep up with growth.

My uncle lives there and said there are like 50 cranes in downtown Austim right now. Several of those are for high rise residential towers. Crazy growth.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:44 am

Cermak wrote: Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:43 am I wonder how much bigger Austin will get ? Could hit 2.5 million in the not to distant future if current growth continues, which I suspect it will. Austin will be passing northern cities Cincinnati and Pittsburgh soon. Who would of thought that 20 years ago. Also starting to wonder when Dallas and Houston will pass Chicago, maybe 25 yrs ?

I don’t think it’s going to take Dallas 25 years to pass Chicago. Think within the next 10-15..

And next year, expect Omaha to pass 2 metros and move up from #59 to #57 in the MSA rankings...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:45 am

CyborgKen wrote: Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:24 am
Louie wrote: Fri Apr 19, 2019 2:05 am
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:55 am
nativeomahan wrote: Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:46 am For a look at the various Top 10 growth areas, see:
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... metro.html

I’m just amazed by the growth in Austin. 20 years ago it was roughly the size of Omaha. To grow by almost a half million people in 8 years is hard to imagine. I do know that traffic congestion is among the worst in the nation as a consequence of that growth.
Austin’s growth has been crazy. Having first visited this city in 1999 then going back in 2018, the change was startling to say the least. I hope their infrastructure holds up as their explosive growth continues...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
It really is crazy, I have read that in 2019 alone they need to open up (not just build) 20k apartment units just to keep up with growth.
My uncle lives there and said there are like 50 cranes in downtown Austim right now. Several of those are for high rise residential towers. Crazy growth.

Wow. 50 cranes? That’s nuts. If that was happening here in the Big O, my head would probably explode

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Cermak · Post by **Cermak** » Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:51 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:44 am
Cermak wrote: Fri Apr 19, 2019 3:43 am I wonder how much bigger Austin will get ? Could hit 2.5 million in the not to distant future if current growth continues, which I suspect it will. Austin will be passing northern cities Cincinnati and Pittsburgh soon. Who would of thought that 20 years ago. Also starting to wonder when Dallas and Houston will pass Chicago, maybe 25 yrs ?
I don’t think it’s going to take Dallas 25 years to pass Chicago. Think within the next 10-15..

And next year, expect Omaha to pass 2 metros and move up from #59 to #57 in the MSA rankings...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I’m sure some statistical population experts have already figured this out. 10 years seems a little early to me but who knows. Chicago has been in the number 3 spot for a long time, I’m not sure when LA passed it I’m guessing 1960’s or 70’s ( found out after checking it was early 80’s that Chicago slipped to number 3) Chicago is still so much more urban feeling than Dallas. The Windy City is currently growing the slowest of the top ten metro’s. Yes Omaha’s growth is respectable especially for a northern city. Omaha and Lincoln have good solid growth although I would like them to be even better. I’d love to see the Omaha metro get above 10% growth during a 10 yr census period. I’m still baffled by the slow growth on the Iowa side. Council Bluffs ,rural Pottawattamie and Mills County have economic developments and new housing but apparently not enough to move the needle much.