2020 Weather Thread

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 12:40 pm

Wouldn't be shocked to see an isolated stronger storm in the Omaha area this afternoon - possibly a few severe warned for hail but shouldn't be anything too crazy.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 1:35 pm

I don't have a rain gauge and I know that this past weekend's thunderstorms fell apart for the Omaha metro area, but the past 3-4 days, when the local weathermen were adamant that most everyone would get 2-3 in of rain was way off. I am glad that none of the severe weather ended up over Omaha, but in Bellevue, I think we got less than .5 in and that was from the rain on Thursday. I watch the weather pretty closely to know if I need to water the yard or garden but we definitely could use some rain in Bellevue.

NUub · Post by **NUub** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:58 pm

A decent line up by Norfolk on the move to the southeast. Hilarious that what was essentially not forecast might give us a decent shot at rain compared to yesterday, as they'd reach us well before the sun gets low.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:09 pm

NUub wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 2:58 pm A decent line up by Norfolk on the move to the southeast. Hilarious that what was essentially not forecast might give us a decent shot at rain compared to yesterday, as they'd reach us well before the sun gets low.

Yep, gotta love 2020. Forecast models really didn't pick up on this at all until a couple hours ago (which is when I mentioned the potential)...Dumb storms.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 3:53 pm

Severe thunderstorm northwest of Omaha - may be here in time for rush hour with some damaging wind...

NUub · Post by **NUub** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:09 pm

-Sound of failing Millennium Falcon hyperdrive-

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:51 pm

NUub wrote: Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:09 pm -Sound of failing Millennium Falcon hyperdrive-

I’ve got a bad feeling about this

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:20 am

Looks like some showers and thunderstorms will push through the Omaha area late tonight (after midnight probably) with additional storms developing along a front tomorrow in parts of Iowa down into far southeastern NE (southeast of Omaha). These storms will include a damaging wind/hail threat...

Below is the simulated radar from the 12z 3km NAM forecast model showing the rain pushing through our area and then the storm redevelopment:

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:38 am

Interesting. I think I saw the Omaha area was in the “Slight Risk” category for severe storms for this Friday...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **nebugeater** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:18 am

Well, it is not a Forcast but I drove through some HEAVY rain this morning between where I get on I 80 at 432 exit (outlet mall) and exit 442 ( Cabela's) It was varying but for about 1/2 of it it was intense enough that my wipers on high didn't make visibility that great. I left Gretna about 5:10 AM. The rest of my drive was basically no rain.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:57 am

nebugeater wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:18 am Well, it is not a Forcast but I drove through some HEAVY rain this morning between where I get on I 80 at 432 exit (outlet mall) and exit 442 ( Cabela's) It was varying but for about 1/2 of it it was intense enough that my wipers on high didn't make visibility that great. I left Gretna about 5:10 AM. The rest of my drive was basically no rain.

Sounds like fun

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 10:38 am Interesting. I think I saw the Omaha area was in the “Slight Risk” category for severe storms for this Friday...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Yep, well technically for just south and east of town but it depends on timing of exactly when the front pushes through. If it slows down at all (which is certainly possible still), the Omaha area itself would be at risk for damaging wind/hail.

NUub · Post by **NUub** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 1:58 pm

nebugeater wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:18 am Well, it is not a Forcast but I drove through some HEAVY rain this morning between where I get on I 80 at 432 exit (outlet mall) and exit 442 ( Cabela's) It was varying but for about 1/2 of it it was intense enough that my wipers on high didn't make visibility that great. I left Gretna about 5:10 AM. The rest of my drive was basically no rain.

Was it a rental? I can't stand driving thru rain with an untreated windshield. Usually just waxing it with the same stuff as the paint is good enough, don't even need windshield wipers over 30mph.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:39 pm

nebugeater wrote: Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:18 am Well, it is not a Forcast but I drove through some HEAVY rain this morning between where I get on I 80 at 432 exit (outlet mall) and exit 442 ( Cabela's) It was varying but for about 1/2 of it it was intense enough that my wipers on high didn't make visibility that great. I left Gretna about 5:10 AM. The rest of my drive was basically no rain.

Yeah, after watching Bill Randby last night, I felt pretty good about leaving my clothes out to dry last night (cause he said 10% chance of rain kind of in a joking "only cause I have to" kind of way) only to wake up some time around 5 to a torrential (albeit fairly brief) rain. Bottom line is he did warn me and it did pass fairly quickly (but 5 min of heavy rain is 5 min of heavy rain) and my clothes still dried nonetheless. It was just a bit of a surprise.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:29 am

Well, from where I sit, it looks pretty much for sure that Omaha’s most active severe weather month will pass and really be pretty much uneventful. The only day was 6/9 when there was a Tornado Watch issued and strong storms moved in..which knocked power out in my neighborhood for 2 hours. Other than that, June looks like it will go out just like it came in- like a lamb..

By the way, is it just me or did June overall feel much warmer than usual? I know this past May felt much cooler than normal, but it seems like for perhaps more than half of June, Omaha had high temps of 90 or above...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 8:10 am

The SPC has shifted the severe weather risk ever so slightly west and north so it now includes the Lincoln/Omaha areas (though barely). Regardless, storm development this afternoon into this evening will likely be close but probably still south and east of town. Potential storm. mode now seems more super cellular than before. Hail and damaging wind will be the primary threats but there is a low risk for a tornado or 2 with these storms as well.

Model guidance continues to struggle (just like it has as of late) with significant differences between the current HRRR forecast model (which favors more of a supercellular mode) and the 3km NAM which favors more of a MCS storm mode with much of the activity further south and east. Just one of those things that can make knowing what to expect that much more difficult. I would expect what really happens will be a combination of both.

Here is the simulated radar from 11z HRRR (for now until approx midnight tonight):

Here is the simulated radar from the 06z 3km NAM for the exact same time frame:

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 9:48 am

Perhaps we’ll get some action after all...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:26 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:29 am Well, from where I sit, it looks pretty much for sure that Omaha’s most active severe weather month will pass and really be pretty much uneventful. The only day was 6/9 when there was a Tornado Watch issued and strong storms moved in..which knocked power out in my neighborhood for 2 hours. Other than that, June looks like it will go out just like it came in- like a lamb..

By the way, is it just me or did June overall feel much warmer than usual? I know this past May felt much cooler than normal, but it seems like for perhaps more than half of June, Omaha had high temps of 90 or above...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

It felt more like a normal July if you ask me.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:28 am

Still only a 30% chance though, so I won't be getting very excited.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 1:24 pm

Cold front is pushing through Omaha currently. Any storms should occur either east or south of town from here on out (once the front is fully through within the next 30 minutes or so)

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:11 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 11:26 am
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:29 am Well, from where I sit, it looks pretty much for sure that Omaha’s most active severe weather month will pass and really be pretty much uneventful. The only day was 6/9 when there was a Tornado Watch issued and strong storms moved in..which knocked power out in my neighborhood for 2 hours. Other than that, June looks like it will go out just like it came in- like a lamb..

By the way, is it just me or did June overall feel much warmer than usual? I know this past May felt much cooler than normal, but it seems like for perhaps more than half of June, Omaha had high temps of 90 or above...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
It felt more like a normal July if you ask me.

I would agree. Most of June felt like July.. Much of May felt like mid March...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:55 pm

It will be interesting if anything can get going just south of Omaha in the next couple hours along this east/west boundary (near Ashland currently and east/west from there). It appears to be trying on the visible satellite anyway. Shear values are pretty marginal but it wouldn't shock me if a storm fires nearby (albeit mostly south of town) soon. Something to keep an eye on - especially if you live on the south side of town. Of course odds are low though that a storm will fire and be able to sustain itself...

Visible satellite showing cumulus trying to tower along the same boundary just south of Omaha.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:41 pm

Decent threat for damaging hail not far from Omaha tomorrow morning (Sunday) with potential for tornadoes East/northeast of Omaha in western/northern IA during the afternoon/evening- though potential still could shift west and include Omaha too. Regardless could be an interesting day in the area at least...

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:23 pm

stormchaser wrote: Sat Jun 27, 2020 5:41 pm Decent threat for damaging hail not far from Omaha tomorrow morning (Sunday) with potential for tornadoes East/northeast of Omaha in western/northern IA during the afternoon/evening- though potential still could shift west and include Omaha too. Regardless could be an interesting day in the area at least...

Sounds like things could get interesting throughout the day in the Omaha area...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:35 am

The SPC has shifted the slight risk today to include Omaha itself (albeit barely). As expected, most of the risk today should end up north/northeast of Omaha with Omaha itself probably “capped”.

Severe outlook for today:

Tornado risk:

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:01 am

In case you missed it, there were severe thunderstorm warnings not too far to our south with the storms that happened around 4 something this morning.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:57 am

Strong/severe storms are possible later today in parts of eastern Nebraska (mostly west of Omaha but possibly in Omaha tonight too). Damaging wind and hail will be the main threats with these storms but as always, an isolated tornado is also possible.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:24 pm

Gee what a surprise, another overnight threat. Practically everything that could be considered resembling exciting has been overnight.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:59 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:24 pm Gee what a surprise, another overnight threat. Practically everything that could be considered resembling exciting has been overnight.

Yep, gotta love it. Looking like a fairly significant damaging wind event in the area in or just north/northwest of Omaha tonight. Wouldn't be surprised to see reports of 70-80mph+ winds...

NUub · Post by **NUub** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:54 pm

Will be interesting to see if this one materializes. Some times when you get into the summer season, seems like it is so difficult to accurately predict any storm event.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:58 pm

NUub wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:54 pm Will be interesting to see if this one materializes. Some times when you get into the summer season, seems like it is so difficult to accurately predict any storm event.

Yep, if anything happens in the local area, it probably won't be until at least Midnight...

NUub · Post by **NUub** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:17 pm

Seems like our overnight chances have gone up in the short term. May be looking at something coming thru after 1AM. Even KETV is throwing the 80% number around in the forecast.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:36 pm

I see much of Douglas County is also included in the Slight Risk category for strong to severe thunderstorms tonight into overnight..

One thing’s for certain, we could use a good soaking rain. Overnight tonight might be our best chance to get one for the next 7 days...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:25 pm

NUub wrote: Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:17 pm Seems like our overnight chances have gone up in the short term. May be looking at something coming thru after 1AM. Even KETV is throwing the 80% number around in the forecast.

Yeah they did go up. At noon they were saying 4 am, now the NWS has also moved it a bit earlier to 1 am as well as bumped it up to 100%. And predicting over an inch of rain. I can deal with 1 am, that's not too late for me.

Post by **Brad** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:58 pm

Nearly 80 mph winds indicated on Radar out near Columbus right now. Quite the line heading this way if it holds together.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:51 pm

looks like we are next. If it holds together, we will be under a severe thunderstorm warning before long.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:52 pm

And it is pushing in tight. The point of that thing is directly aimed at us.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:10 pm

Well, May/June 2020 came and went.. Perhaps the most boring severe weather season in recent history..

We’re now headed into the dog days of summer. Any early models indicate the chance for some active weather the next several weeks?...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:13 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:10 pm Well, May/June 2020 came and went.. Perhaps the most boring severe weather season in recent history..

We’re now headed into the dog days of summer. Any early models indicate the chance for some active weather the next several weeks?...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Hehe, we've been in the dog days for the last month as far as I'm concerned. The last day or two have been pretty comfortable, all things considered. I have no answer for your question, but Wednesday might bring something. Only about a month or so now and we will begin to see the seasons change, hard to believe. As a gardener, I always notice the shadows getting significantly longer about midway through August, and once you get through the first 10 days or so of August, you can almost bet the house the dog days are over (I'm sure you know this). I'm just getting excited for cooler patterns, that historically are only a little over a month away. YES!

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:28 am

Busguy2010 wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:13 am
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:10 pm Well, May/June 2020 came and went.. Perhaps the most boring severe weather season in recent history..

We’re now headed into the dog days of summer. Any early models indicate the chance for some active weather the next several weeks?...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
Hehe, we've been in the dog days for the last month as far as I'm concerned. The last day or two have been pretty comfortable, all things considered. I have no answer for your question, but Wednesday might bring something. Only about a month or so now and we will begin to see the seasons change, hard to believe. As a gardener, I always notice the shadows getting significantly longer about midway through August, and once you get through the first 10 days or so of August, you can almost bet the house the dog days are over (I'm sure you know this). I'm just getting excited for cooler patterns, that historically are only a little over a month away. YES!

Ha ha. Yes, those dog days seem to come in then exit out pretty quick. I enjoy summer, but my favorite weather temperature time of the year is in the fall. Specifically the last week of September all the way to the week leading to Thanksgiving (funny how that coincides with my love for football, lol).. Before “old man winter” settles in by the first week of December..

It’ll be interesting to see if the next 3 weeks of July bring any active weather beyond the usual summer rainstorms..not that I’m complaining, we need the rain too...

Ciao..LuO...Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jul 07, 2020 8:11 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:10 pm Well, May/June 2020 came and went.. Perhaps the most boring severe weather season in recent history..

We’re now headed into the dog days of summer. Any early models indicate the chance for some active weather the next several weeks?...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Yep, very lame in our area this year so far. Always difficult to really know what to expect (as far as specifics anyway) more than a week out. Just so many things can change that will drastically change things. That being said, currently anyway it looks like next week may have a few days at least with tornado potential (lows/warm fronts/triple points) in our area roughly - depending on capping though which is normally an issue this time of year.

Anyhow, tomorrow looks like our next chance for severe weather in central/eastern Nebraska with the potential for a few tornadoes out toward the central part of the State (near Kearney roughly) and then a subsequent night time damaging wind event in eastern Nebraska (typical for July). SPC currently has an outlook for these areas for tomorrow though. I'd assume the risk will be extended further east to include the Lincoln/Omaha area too to account for the overnight storms.