Is the Omaha metro population growing faster than the US Census estimates?

[Athomsfere]

For whatever reason, I thought I saw it was going to be June this year.

[Garrett]

Just random thoughts:

But if Omaha and the area keeps growing as it has been the last 20 years...

Omaha (proper) could be 1+ million in 2060,
Omaha MSA: 2.3 million,
Omaha, Lincoln CSA ~3 million.

I wonder the odds of Omaha keeping going.

Honestly it might grow even faster, given climate change. As the more severe effects grow I'd expect the Midwest to start growing a lot more. And yes, because of COVID and bureaucratic issues, the census is expected in June/July.

[Omaha Cowboy]

For whatever reason, I thought I saw it was going to be June this year.

I hope that is the case..but I cryptically saw on the US Census web site September being mentioned. But I could be interpreting that out of context..

I’d like to see these numbers released sometime between April and June...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Athomsfere]

Just random thoughts:

But if Omaha and the area keeps growing as it has been the last 20 years...

Omaha (proper) could be 1+ million in 2060,
Omaha MSA: 2.3 million,
Omaha, Lincoln CSA ~3 million.

I wonder the odds of Omaha keeping going.

Honestly it might grow even faster, given climate change. As the more severe effects grow I'd expect the Midwest to start growing a lot more. And yes, because of COVID and bureaucratic issues, the census is expected in June/July.

Eh, what a positive spin on the world not doing the bare minimum to save itself... ?

[Athomsfere]

For whatever reason, I thought I saw it was going to be June this year.

I hope that is the case..but I cryptically saw on the US Census web site September being mentioned. But I could be interpreting that out of context..

I’d like to see these numbers released sometime between April and June...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

If I am reading this anywhere near right: 4/4 ?
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys ... edule.html

[Omaha Cowboy]

For whatever reason, I thought I saw it was going to be June this year.

I hope that is the case..but I cryptically saw on the US Census web site September being mentioned. But I could be interpreting that out of context..

I’d like to see these numbers released sometime between April and June...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

If I am reading this anywhere near right: 4/4 ?
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys ... edule.html

You might have found a winner here ..

It’s showing a 5/4/2021 release date for county population data. If this is accurate, Sweet! Just 2 months away from new population data!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Louie]

For whatever reason, I thought I saw it was going to be June this year.

I hope that is the case..but I cryptically saw on the US Census web site September being mentioned. But I could be interpreting that out of context..

I’d like to see these numbers released sometime between April and June...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

If I am reading this anywhere near right: 4/4 ?
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys ... edule.html

You might have found a winner here ..

It’s showing a 5/4/2021 release date for county population data. If this is accurate, Sweet! Just 2 months away from new population data!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Just hope its accurate with how poorly the census was handled! Or is this done separately?

[Garrett]

For whatever reason, I thought I saw it was going to be June this year.

I hope that is the case..but I cryptically saw on the US Census web site September being mentioned. But I could be interpreting that out of context..

I’d like to see these numbers released sometime between April and June...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

If I am reading this anywhere near right: 4/4 ?
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys ... edule.html

You might have found a winner here ..

It’s showing a 5/4/2021 release date for county population data. If this is accurate, Sweet! Just 2 months away from new population data!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

So this data is based on the ACS estimates, and it is not the official Census results. It's the same new population info we get every year, just for 2020.

[Omaha Cowboy]

For whatever reason, I thought I saw it was going to be June this year.

I hope that is the case..but I cryptically saw on the US Census web site September being mentioned. But I could be interpreting that out of context..

I’d like to see these numbers released sometime between April and June...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

If I am reading this anywhere near right: 4/4 ?
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys ... edule.html

You might have found a winner here ..

It’s showing a 5/4/2021 release date for county population data. If this is accurate, Sweet! Just 2 months away from new population data!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

So this data is based on the ACS estimates, and it is not the official Census results. It's the same new population info we get every year, just for 2020.

Good catch- those 2019 numbers have already been released and our 2019 Omaha MSA/CSA numbers are already known..

So we are likely waiting a while longer until the actual 2020 Official US Census results are available for consumption...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Garrett]

For whatever reason, I thought I saw it was going to be June this year.

I hope that is the case..but I cryptically saw on the US Census web site September being mentioned. But I could be interpreting that out of context..

I’d like to see these numbers released sometime between April and June...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

If I am reading this anywhere near right: 4/4 ?
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys ... edule.html

You might have found a winner here ..

It’s showing a 5/4/2021 release date for county population data. If this is accurate, Sweet! Just 2 months away from new population data!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

So this data is based on the ACS estimates, and it is not the official Census results. It's the same new population info we get every year, just for 2020.

Good catch- those 2019 numbers have already been released and our 2019 Omaha MSA/CSA numbers are already known..

So we are likely waiting a while longer until the actual 2020 Official US Census results are available for consumption...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

The data they’ll be releasing will still be 2020 data. The American Community Survey, which is what the annual estimates are, still happens every year even during census years.

[Omaha Cowboy]

For whatever reason, I thought I saw it was going to be June this year.

I hope that is the case..but I cryptically saw on the US Census web site September being mentioned. But I could be interpreting that out of context..

I’d like to see these numbers released sometime between April and June...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

If I am reading this anywhere near right: 4/4 ?
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys ... edule.html

You might have found a winner here ..

It’s showing a 5/4/2021 release date for county population data. If this is accurate, Sweet! Just 2 months away from new population data!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

So this data is based on the ACS estimates, and it is not the official Census results. It's the same new population info we get every year, just for 2020.

Good catch- those 2019 numbers have already been released and our 2019 Omaha MSA/CSA numbers are already known..

So we are likely waiting a while longer until the actual 2020 Official US Census results are available for consumption...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

The data they’ll be releasing will still be 2020 data. The American Community Survey, which is what the annual estimates are, still happens every year even during census years.

Okay- then according to what we’ll eventually see, the estimate data will likely be available for several months before the official 2020 US Census data.. It’ll be interesting to see the difference between the estimate and Census numbers.. I’ve always contented the estimate numbers lowball the Omaha MSA/CSA numbers. We’ll see...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Athomsfere]

Okay- then according to what we’ll eventually see, the estimate data will likely be available for several months before the official 2020 US Census data.. It’ll be interesting to see the difference between the estimate and Census numbers.. I’ve always contented the estimate numbers lowball the Omaha MSA/CSA numbers. We’ll see...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

This will actually be a whole new kind of fun then! We get to see error rates, and where is typically given the up/down ;)

[Omaha Cowboy]

Okay- then according to what we’ll eventually see, the estimate data will likely be available for several months before the official 2020 US Census data.. It’ll be interesting to see the difference between the estimate and Census numbers.. I’ve always contented the estimate numbers lowball the Omaha MSA/CSA numbers. We’ll see...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

This will actually be a whole new kind of fun then! We get to see error rates, and where is typically given the up/down ;)

Yes! I completely agree...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[BRoss]

Okay- then according to what we’ll eventually see, the estimate data will likely be available for several months before the official 2020 US Census data.. It’ll be interesting to see the difference between the estimate and Census numbers.. I’ve always contented the estimate numbers lowball the Omaha MSA/CSA numbers. We’ll see...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

This will actually be a whole new kind of fun then! We get to see error rates, and where is typically given the up/down ;)

Yes! I completely agree...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

The data source I pull my numbers from that I post here has the estimates for census years. I've always just ignored the 2010 estimates and put the census numbers instead.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Okay- then according to what we’ll eventually see, the estimate data will likely be available for several months before the official 2020 US Census data.. It’ll be interesting to see the difference between the estimate and Census numbers.. I’ve always contented the estimate numbers lowball the Omaha MSA/CSA numbers. We’ll see...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

This will actually be a whole new kind of fun then! We get to see error rates, and where is typically given the up/down ;)

Yes! I completely agree...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

The data source I pull my numbers from that I post here has the estimates for census years. I've always just ignored the 2010 estimates and put the census numbers instead.

100% agree..

Now this, confirming an end of September delivery of the official 2020 US Census numbers.. From today’s W-H-

“Normally, the once-a-decade census is done by October of years ending in "0," which would have meant October 2020. That affords plenty of time for double-checks so that block-by-block census numbers needed for redistricting can be delivered by April 1 in years ending in "1," in this case, 2021.

But COVID-19 and other factors delayed the 2020 Census, and now state officials are expecting the needed census data to be delivered by Sept. 30. That's three months after the regular session of the State Legislature is scheduled to be over. So a special session, or some special accommodation, will be necessary.”..

..

The complete W-H story link:

https://omaha.com/news/state-and-region ... the-latest

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Garrett]

Okay- then according to what we’ll eventually see, the estimate data will likely be available for several months before the official 2020 US Census data.. It’ll be interesting to see the difference between the estimate and Census numbers.. I’ve always contented the estimate numbers lowball the Omaha MSA/CSA numbers. We’ll see...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

This will actually be a whole new kind of fun then! We get to see error rates, and where is typically given the up/down ;)

Yes! I completely agree...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

The data source I pull my numbers from that I post here has the estimates for census years. I've always just ignored the 2010 estimates and put the census numbers instead.

A source I found today had the 2010 estimate numbers for Nebraska as about 1%, or 20,000 people, lower than the census showed. I will say though, don't be surprised if the City of Omaha ends up being way lower in the official census numbers than the estimates. I remember in 2010 that the estimates had the city at around 450,000 and then ended up being only around 408,000. All of the suburban cities, like Gretna, La Vista and Papillion, ended up being rounded down pretty significantly too.

[Omaha Cowboy]

The 2010 US Census “official” city of Omaha number was questionable..But it was “official”..

The estimates, however, have shown the MSA and CSA numbers are lowballed compared to the last 2 (2000 and 2010) Official Census counts..

In any case, it’ll be interesting to compare these numbers this go around...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Garrett]

The 2010 US Census “official” city of Omaha number was questionable..But it was “official”..

The estimates, however, have shown the MSA and CSA numbers are lowballed compared to the last 2 (2000 and 2010) Official Census counts..

In any case, it’ll be interesting to compare these numbers this go around...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I mean that's the thing: if you don't disagree with the metro population in the official census, then you shouldn't disagree with the population of the city itself.

However, I've done some digging, and between 2000 and 2009, according to the estimates, the metro added about 9,164 people per year on average. The difference between 2009 estimates and the official 2010 census ended up being almost 16,000 people. Between 2010 and 2019, according to estimates, the metro has added about 9,343 per year. Assuming a similar error rate, 2019's 949,442 becomes 965,584.

[Omaha Cowboy]

The 2010 US Census “official” city of Omaha number was questionable..But it was “official”..

The estimates, however, have shown the MSA and CSA numbers are lowballed compared to the last 2 (2000 and 2010) Official Census counts..

In any case, it’ll be interesting to compare these numbers this go around...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I mean that's the thing: if you don't disagree with the metro population in the official census, then you shouldn't disagree with the population of the city itself.

However, I've done some digging, and between 2000 and 2009, according to the estimates, the metro added about 9,164 people per year on average. The difference between 2009 estimates and the official 2010 census ended up being almost 16,000 people. Between 2010 and 2019, according to estimates, the metro has added about 9,343 per year. Assuming a similar error rate, 2019's 949,442 becomes 965,584.

But they are 2 different measures..and likely, the “official” city 2010 count did not include recent annexation of areas by the city..so while this variable does affect the “official” city count..It does not effect the MSA/CSA official numbers..so it’s Apple/Oranges imo..and the last 2 official census have shown a higher metro/CSA count than the estimates..

In the end, I’m actually more interested in MSA/CSA counts as I feel they are the most important population measurements.. But I also understand the importance of an accurate city count is as well...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[skinzfan23]

According to story in the World Herald,

But COVID-19 and other factors delayed the 2020 Census, and now state officials are expecting the needed census data to be delivered by Sept. 30.

[Omaha Cowboy]

According to story in the World Herald,

But COVID-19 and other factors delayed the 2020 Census, and now state officials are expecting the needed census data to be delivered by Sept. 30.

Right.. I highlighted that quote in an earlier post.. So we won’t see anything from the Official 2020 Census until probably Oct 1st-2nd...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[skinzfan23]

Ok sorry, I missed that. I thought someone else was stating it may be earlier, which would be nice, but it does sound like it might be fall before we find out.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Ok sorry, I missed that. I thought someone else was stating it may be earlier, which would be nice, but it does sound like it might be fall before we find out.

It’s perfectly fine my friend.. Just further emphasizes how late we’ll have access to the official numbers ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[ita]

Did the COVID-19 Pandemic Cause an Urban Exodus?

Here is an interesting study conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland of the claimed urban exodus due to Covid. I won't go into the nitty gritty of the specifics, but ultimately there was an increase in outflow with decreases in inflow in urban neighborhoods (census tracts with density of 7,000 per square mile or with majority of housing stock built pre-WWII in metros with population greater than 500,000). However, nationally, numbers weren't as bad as particularly super large metros like New York and San Francisco.

Omaha's urban areas, as did most smaller metros, faired well. Based on their chart, urban outflow increased by 5 persons per 100,000 compared to an increase in urban inflow of 2 persons per 100,000, with a net change of 4 persons per 100,000. That means we lost 4 people per 100,000 in net flow for 2020 compared to the net flow over the last 10 years, if I understand to data correctly (it's confusing because the way I understand it a positive change in net flow means you lost people, but a negative change in net flow means you gained people). I know we have to compare ourselves to our neighbors; Des Moines lost 15 per 100,000 in net flow while Kansas City actually saw a gain of 2 per 100,000 in net flow to urban areas.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Interesting chart..

I don’t know exactly how that will ultimately translate to the Omaha MSA/CSA population gain for the official 2020 Census, but it’s an interesting read and interesting data...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Louie]

So based on those numbers, the metro population lost about 36 people because of Covid?
Showing my work in case I misunderstood something lol: 4 per 100k, Omaha metro pop ~900k, so 9x4=36.

[ita]

So based on those numbers, the metro population lost about 36 people because of Covid?
Showing my work in case I misunderstood something lol: 4 per 100k, Omaha metro pop ~900k, so 9x4=36.

Well, my understanding is that they were looking at census tracts within 500,000+ metros that either had 7000 people per sq. mile or had a majority of homes built pre-WWII. So, data is mostly relevant to 'urban' Omaha. You would have to figure out all the census tracts that fit that description to figure out any gross number.

[Athomsfere]

I skimmed the article, so maybe I missed it but.

It doesn't appear to differentiate between what percentage is buy vs rent.

I assume it's a small number of rent to rent moves, based on the article. I can't imagine buying something like a house, and losing the amenities of living in an urban core for a temporary lockdown?

[Omaha Cowboy]

I skimmed the article, so maybe I missed it but.

It doesn't appear to differentiate between what percentage is buy vs rent.

I assume it's a small number of rent to rent moves, based on the article. I can't imagine buying something like a house, and losing the amenities of living in an urban core for a temporary lockdown?

It’s an interesting read and measurement..

But I don’t think it factors much into what the overall MSA/CSA growth for Omaha will be for the Official 2020 Census count...

Ciao..LiO...Peace