May the Force be with us- 2020 Omaha MSA/CSA census estimates coming out 5/4/21-

[Omaha Cowboy]

Yes folks, it’s finally that time of the year..

In less than one month, the 2020 US Census Metropolitan and CSA population estimates are set for public consumption May the 4th.. With this in mind, a refresher of where Omaha sits rounding out the 2019 estimates from last year-

Omaha metro- 950,000
Omaha CSA (which includes Dodge county, NE)- a notch past 986,000..

I’m of the belief the estimates consistently low-ball Omaha..The fun thing is, later this year, we’ll see if that trend continues when the “Official” 2020 US Census numbers are released this September..

In any case, what is your prediction for the Omaha MSA/CSA estimates for this year?..

My prediction-

Omaha MSA- 960,000
Omaha CSA- 996,500..

What say you?!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Louie]

Omaha MSA 963,000
and as much as I want to give the CSA the 1 million...I'm gonna go with 993,000

[jomaha9]

I'm going glass half full.

Omaha MSA: 968,000
CSA: 1 million!!!

[TitosBuritoBarn]

heck let’s go nuts, MSA is 46,000,000



...or 956,000

[Omaha Cowboy]

Great looking predictions thus far..

I particularly like the 46 million MSA prediction, lol..

I see the Omaha CSA tickling the 1 million mark with the estimate May 4th..But I suspect that 1 million CSA mark will be exceeded once we finally get access to the Official 2020 US Census numbers this September..

Keep those predictions coming ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Louie]

Great looking predictions thus far..

I particularly like the 46 million MSA prediction, lol..

I see the Omaha CSA tickling the 1 million mark with the estimate May 4th..But I suspect that 1 million CSA mark will be exceeded once we finally get access to the Official 2020 US Census numbers this September..

Keep those predictions coming ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Do you foresee the census numbers being accurate and also positive in our favor?

[Omaha Cowboy]

Great looking predictions thus far..

I particularly like the 46 million MSA prediction, lol..

I see the Omaha CSA tickling the 1 million mark with the estimate May 4th..But I suspect that 1 million CSA mark will be exceeded once we finally get access to the Official 2020 US Census numbers this September..

Keep those predictions coming ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Do you foresee the census numbers being accurate and also positive in our favor?

If things stay true to the trend, yes. The official 2000 and 2010 US Census numbers for the Omaha MSA showed greater growth numbers than the annual estimates provided leading up to them..

I suspect that trend will continue..At least I hope, lol...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Bob from Omaha]

Looking at statsamerica's web site, and I don't know how old the data is, in a 25 mile radius around Omaha there are a reported 949,442. For 50 mile radius there are 1,355,899. For 75 miles, 1,535,334 and for 100 miles, 1,893,105.

Ok, now I know it's all about cross commutes but I think the time has passed when the Omaha-Lincoln area should be considered a CSA or whatever. Yes, Lincoln has grown substantially to the south as well as east. Still it makes sense to me anyway.

edit. I just took a look at Google maps and checking the map history it appears that over the past few decades the bulk of the growth has actually been to the south. There has been a bit of eastern growth but not nearly as dramatic as to the south. My bad

[Louie]

Looking at statsamerica's web site, and I don't know how old the data is, in a 25 mile radius around Omaha there are a reported 949,442. For 50 mile radius there are 1,355,899. For 75 miles, 1,535,334 and for 100 miles, 1,893,105.

Ok, now I know it's all about cross commutes but I think the time has passed when the Omaha-Lincoln area should be considered a CSA or whatever. Yes, Lincoln has grown substantially to the south as well as east. Still it makes sense to me anyway.

edit. I just took a look at Google maps and checking the map history it appears that over the past few decades the bulk of the growth has actually been to the south. There has been a bit of eastern growth but not nearly as dramatic as to the south. My bad

I assume you mean western, not eastern?

[Omaha Cowboy]

Regardless, I agree with Bob..

I’ve always thought Omaha and Lincoln share more connectivity than the stupid *BS* US Census “commute percentage” threshold..or Nielsen’s ridiculous separated Omaha and Lincoln TV and radio markets..

Omaha and Lincoln, only being about 40 or so miles apart..share (imo) a continuous, intertwined CSA that really functions like a 1.4 million population area..Because IT IS..

Washington can say what it wants. And Nielsen can go F themselves.. The reality is- Omaha and Lincoln function together as one CSA.. And I consider it as such...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[BRoss]

MSA 957,000
CSA 994,000

[Bob from Omaha]

Looking at statsamerica's web site, and I don't know how old the data is, in a 25 mile radius around Omaha there are a reported 949,442. For 50 mile radius there are 1,355,899. For 75 miles, 1,535,334 and for 100 miles, 1,893,105.

Ok, now I know it's all about cross commutes but I think the time has passed when the Omaha-Lincoln area should be considered a CSA or whatever. Yes, Lincoln has grown substantially to the south as well as east. Still it makes sense to me anyway.

edit. I just took a look at Google maps and checking the map history it appears that over the past few decades the bulk of the growth has actually been to the south. There has been a bit of eastern growth but not nearly as dramatic as to the south. My bad

I assume you mean western, not eastern?

I just looked again. I didn't see a ton of growth west of downtown really. I also don't see a lot of growth west of 84th. In neither case was it as pronounced as the southern growth.

Anyway, wherever it is Lincoln really is morphing. Downtown, rail yard area, Antelope Valley development is very cool, the whole city.

Having said all that, if I was leading a company and looking to expand I'd give serious consideration to the Omaha-Lincoln area. As I quoted above, it's an area with roughly 1.5 million people. That puts it in league with the rest of the second tier class of cities.

[Omaha Cowboy]

5 predictions in..

Keep ‘em coming!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Louie]

Looking at statsamerica's web site, and I don't know how old the data is, in a 25 mile radius around Omaha there are a reported 949,442. For 50 mile radius there are 1,355,899. For 75 miles, 1,535,334 and for 100 miles, 1,893,105.

Ok, now I know it's all about cross commutes but I think the time has passed when the Omaha-Lincoln area should be considered a CSA or whatever. Yes, Lincoln has grown substantially to the south as well as east. Still it makes sense to me anyway.

edit. I just took a look at Google maps and checking the map history it appears that over the past few decades the bulk of the growth has actually been to the south. There has been a bit of eastern growth but not nearly as dramatic as to the south. My bad

I assume you mean western, not eastern?

I just looked again. I didn't see a ton of growth west of downtown really. I also don't see a lot of growth west of 84th. In neither case was it as pronounced as the southern growth.

Anyway, wherever it is Lincoln really is morphing. Downtown, rail yard area, Antelope Valley development is very cool, the whole city.

Having said all that, if I was leading a company and looking to expand I'd give serious consideration to the Omaha-Lincoln area. As I quoted above, it's an area with roughly 1.5 million people. That puts it in league with the rest of the second tier class of cities.

Totally agree with that assessment

[Linkin5]

Within the last ten years there was talk about an infrastructure project East of Lincoln that would spark development that way, I’m not sure on the current status of that. When Lincoln inevitably adds an East belt that runs from I80 to the south beltway that is currently being constructed, you’re going to see quite a bit of growth towards Omaha.

[ita]

MSA - 957500
CSA - 992000

[Louie]

Within the last ten years there was talk about an infrastructure project East of Lincoln that would spark development that way, I’m not sure on the current status of that. When Lincoln inevitably adds an East belt that runs from I80 to the south beltway that is currently being constructed, you’re going to see quite a bit of growth towards Omaha.

I recall seeing something about the hillier land or soil type toward the east part of Lincoln being problematic for getting infrastructure built out (water pipes, gas, etc).

[bones]

Regardless, I agree with Bob..

I’ve always thought Omaha and Lincoln share more connectivity than the stupid *BS* US Census “commute percentage” threshold..or Nielsen’s ridiculous separated Omaha and Lincoln TV and radio markets..

Omaha and Lincoln, only being about 40 or so miles apart..share (imo) a continuous, intertwined CSA that really functions like a 1.4 million population area..Because IT IS..

Washington can say what it wants. And Nielsen can go F themselves.. The reality is- Omaha and Lincoln function together as one CSA.. And I consider it as such...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Maybe we will finally be considered one CSA when we flood Ashland and have a giant lake connecting the two cities

[Linkin5]

Regardless, I agree with Bob..

I’ve always thought Omaha and Lincoln share more connectivity than the stupid *BS* US Census “commute percentage” threshold..or Nielsen’s ridiculous separated Omaha and Lincoln TV and radio markets..

Omaha and Lincoln, only being about 40 or so miles apart..share (imo) a continuous, intertwined CSA that really functions like a 1.4 million population area..Because IT IS..

Washington can say what it wants. And Nielsen can go F themselves.. The reality is- Omaha and Lincoln function together as one CSA.. And I consider it as such...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Maybe we will finally be considered one CSA when we flood Ashland and have a giant lake connecting the two cities

Just give this 50 more days. http://portnebraska.wildescape.com/

[Omaha Cowboy]

I’ll just be happy if the Omaha CSA passes the 1 million mark when the official 2020 Census numbers come out..

I think the estimate next month will just have us closely tickle that number...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[guy4omaha]

Within the last ten years there was talk about an infrastructure project East of Lincoln that would spark development that way, I’m not sure on the current status of that. When Lincoln inevitably adds an East belt that runs from I80 to the south beltway that is currently being constructed, you’re going to see quite a bit of growth towards Omaha.

I recall seeing something about the hillier land or soil type toward the east part of Lincoln being problematic for getting infrastructure built out (water pipes, gas, etc).

This is what I seem to recall as well. I think the story was they would need to either build a sewage station east of 84th or install lift stations to connect to the city’s system west of 84th. Both of which would be very costly and thus serve as barrier to development east of 84th. Or maybe my memory is |expletive|.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Within the last ten years there was talk about an infrastructure project East of Lincoln that would spark development that way, I’m not sure on the current status of that. When Lincoln inevitably adds an East belt that runs from I80 to the south beltway that is currently being constructed, you’re going to see quite a bit of growth towards Omaha.

I recall seeing something about the hillier land or soil type toward the east part of Lincoln being problematic for getting infrastructure built out (water pipes, gas, etc).

This is what I seem to recall as well. I think the story was they would need to either build a sewage station east of 84th or install lift stations to connect to the city’s system west of 84th. Both of which would be very costly and thus serve as barrier to development east of 84th. Or maybe my memory is |expletive|.

Hey Guy- Do you have an MSA population prediction?...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Louie]

Within the last ten years there was talk about an infrastructure project East of Lincoln that would spark development that way, I’m not sure on the current status of that. When Lincoln inevitably adds an East belt that runs from I80 to the south beltway that is currently being constructed, you’re going to see quite a bit of growth towards Omaha.

I recall seeing something about the hillier land or soil type toward the east part of Lincoln being problematic for getting infrastructure built out (water pipes, gas, etc).

This is what I seem to recall as well. I think the story was they would need to either build a sewage station east of 84th or install lift stations to connect to the city’s system west of 84th. Both of which would be very costly and thus serve as barrier to development east of 84th. Or maybe my memory is |expletive|.

Why not both!

But I am sure that eventually that obstacle will be overcome as populations increase and the demand for housing in Lincoln with quick access to Omaha grows.

[GetUrban]

Within the last ten years there was talk about an infrastructure project East of Lincoln that would spark development that way, I’m not sure on the current status of that. When Lincoln inevitably adds an East belt that runs from I80 to the south beltway that is currently being constructed, you’re going to see quite a bit of growth towards Omaha.

I recall seeing something about the hillier land or soil type toward the east part of Lincoln being problematic for getting infrastructure built out (water pipes, gas, etc).

This is what I seem to recall as well. I think the story was they would need to either build a sewage station east of 84th or install lift stations to connect to the city’s system west of 84th. Both of which would be very costly and thus serve as barrier to development east of 84th. Or maybe my memory is |expletive|.

Why not both!

But I am sure that eventually that obstacle will be overcome as populations increase and the demand for housing in Lincoln with quick access to Omaha grows.

The area basically east of 84th street is in the Stevens creek watershed so to gravity drain sanitary sewage they’d have to build a new sewage treatment plant or pump it west into the Salt Creek basin. It seems inevitable they’ll have to build the Steven Creek plant eventually if Lincoln is ever going to grow to the east as much as the south.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I appreciate the commentary..

But I’m actually interested in your predictions for the MSA/CSA 2020 estimates as well. An adult beverage or 2 will await the closest winner once we all get vaccinated, it’s safe, we and can go to a tap house and grab some beers and grub...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Coyote]

My estimations:
MSA - 955.5m and CSA - 990.m

[BRoss]

My estimations:
MSA - 955.5m and CSA - 990.m

Wow, that would be a huge jump!

[Omaha Cowboy]

My estimations:
MSA - 955.5m and CSA - 990.m

Wow, that would be a huge jump!

Lol..

It’s possible though, these estimates for 2020 could lowball even more before the “official” Census numbers come out in the fall. While this would be a disappointing estimate and would undermine recent estimate growth this decade, I could see it happen...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[BRoss]

My estimations:
MSA - 955.5m and CSA - 990.m

Wow, that would be a huge jump!

Lol..

It’s possible though, these estimates for 2020 could lowball even more before the “official” Census numbers come out in the fall. While this would be a disappointing estimate and would undermine recent estimate growth this decade, I could see it happen...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I was just joking about how Coyote put million instead of thousand.

[Coyote]

My bad...

[nebport5]

I’ll just be happy if the Omaha CSA passes the 1 million mark when the official 2020 Census numbers come out..

I think the estimate next month will just have us closely tickle that number...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

And if it does pass 1M what are we hoping to gain from it? Climbing the TV market ladder? It can't hurt for the desire to land a professional sports team.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I’ll just be happy if the Omaha CSA passes the 1 million mark when the official 2020 Census numbers come out..

I think the estimate next month will just have us closely tickle that number...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

And if it does pass 1M what are we hoping to gain from it? Climbing the TV market ladder? It can't hurt for the desire to land a professional sports team.

Nielsen’s TV market designations are so skewed, the Omaha CSA hitting/surpassing 1 million really won’t matter..

But what does matter, is when an MSA/CSA sports a 1 million plus population.. National businesses and merchants take serious notice for potential expansion.. With Omaha being so close, you’d like to think many already are..but it never hurts to have the actual printed US Census Bureau numbers to back them up..

Bigger pools of businesses take notice.. That’s a huge feather in the cap gain right there..

That all said, would you like to give your MSA/CSA estimate prediction?...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Busguy2010]

I don't really care/don't have anything to base it on, but I'll guess just in case I get it right.

MSA 958,427
CSA 992,231

[guy4omaha]

Within the last ten years there was talk about an infrastructure project East of Lincoln that would spark development that way, I’m not sure on the current status of that. When Lincoln inevitably adds an East belt that runs from I80 to the south beltway that is currently being constructed, you’re going to see quite a bit of growth towards Omaha.

I recall seeing something about the hillier land or soil type toward the east part of Lincoln being problematic for getting infrastructure built out (water pipes, gas, etc).

This is what I seem to recall as well. I think the story was they would need to either build a sewage station east of 84th or install lift stations to connect to the city’s system west of 84th. Both of which would be very costly and thus serve as barrier to development east of 84th. Or maybe my memory is |expletive|.

Hey Guy- Do you have an MSA population prediction?...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I don’t have a prediction. But I do have a SWAG:
MSA: 963,418
CSA: 999,997

[Omaha Cowboy]

Thanks for those predictions!..

Keep ‘em coming ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[NEDodger]

I’ll just be happy if the Omaha CSA passes the 1 million mark when the official 2020 Census numbers come out..

I think the estimate next month will just have us closely tickle that number...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

And if it does pass 1M what are we hoping to gain from it? Climbing the TV market ladder? It can't hurt for the desire to land a professional sports team.

As Omaha Cowboy said, it's for businesses to take notice. Professional sports teams here are a pipe dream - the TV market is too small, and we're too close to another major metro (Kansas City) that's on the smaller side to be of any consideration. The cities waiting for a/more "big four" team that we're behind in line for are:

Portland
San Antonio/Austin
Nashville
Charlotte
Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads
Salt Lake City

NHL/NBA would go to Kansas City first, and we can't support NFL/MLB.

[NEDodger]

MSA: 958,548
CSA: 994,179

[nebport5]

I’ll just be happy if the Omaha CSA passes the 1 million mark when the official 2020 Census numbers come out..

I think the estimate next month will just have us closely tickle that number...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

And if it does pass 1M what are we hoping to gain from it? Climbing the TV market ladder? It can't hurt for the desire to land a professional sports team.

Nielsen’s TV market designations are so skewed, the Omaha CSA hitting/surpassing 1 million really won’t matter..

But what does matter, is when an MSA/CSA sports a 1 million plus population.. National businesses and merchants take serious notice for potential expansion.. With Omaha being so close, you’d like to think many already are..but it never hurts to have the actual printed US Census Bureau numbers to back them up..

Bigger pools of businesses take notice.. That’s a huge feather in the cap gain right there..

That all said, would you like to give your MSA/CSA estimate prediction?...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I don't have a prediction but I do share your desire to nip at the 1M mark.

Professional sports teams here are a pipe dream - the TV market is too small, and we're too close to another major metro (Kansas City) that's on the smaller side to be of any consideration. The cities waiting for a/more "big four" team that we're behind in line for are:

Portland
San Antonio/Austin
Nashville
Charlotte
Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads
Salt Lake City

NHL/NBA would go to Kansas City first, and we can't support NFL/MLB.

I generally agree. The possible exception would be someone with deep pockets willing to build a new stadium/arena for an underperforming existing franchise? Yeah probably not.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I’ll just be happy if the Omaha CSA passes the 1 million mark when the official 2020 Census numbers come out..

I think the estimate next month will just have us closely tickle that number...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

And if it does pass 1M what are we hoping to gain from it? Climbing the TV market ladder? It can't hurt for the desire to land a professional sports team.

Nielsen’s TV market designations are so skewed, the Omaha CSA hitting/surpassing 1 million really won’t matter..

But what does matter, is when an MSA/CSA sports a 1 million plus population.. National businesses and merchants take serious notice for potential expansion.. With Omaha being so close, you’d like to think many already are..but it never hurts to have the actual printed US Census Bureau numbers to back them up..

Bigger pools of businesses take notice.. That’s a huge feather in the cap gain right there..

That all said, would you like to give your MSA/CSA estimate prediction?...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I don't have a prediction but I do share your desire to nip at the 1M mark.

Professional sports teams here are a pipe dream - the TV market is too small, and we're too close to another major metro (Kansas City) that's on the smaller side to be of any consideration. The cities waiting for a/more "big four" team that we're behind in line for are:

Portland
San Antonio/Austin
Nashville
Charlotte
Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads
Salt Lake City

NHL/NBA would go to Kansas City first, and we can't support NFL/MLB.

I generally agree. The possible exception would be someone with deep pockets willing to build a new stadium/arena for an underperforming existing franchise? Yeah probably not.

It’s going to be very interesting to see the last estimate coming 3 weeks from now compared to the Official 2020 US Census count coming in September..

I don’t expect the estimate to reflect 1 million in Omaha CSA (it’ll likely land between 994,000-998,000)..But I really expect the Omaha CSA to reflect the 1 million (plus) population mark when the official numbers come out..And that will be a nice official “feather in the cap” the Omaha area can boast about from a marketing standpoint...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[GetUrban]

Ok, my guess:

MSA: 961,049
CSA: 996,321

Totally Non-scientific