2022 Weather Thread

[stormchaser]

Copying this over from the 2021 thread to a new 2022 one since it’s relevant for early January…

Odds continue to increase that a strong winter storm will impact our area next weekend (probably the 1st and/or 2nd of January) including the potential for 6” of snow or more and wind (though it’s too far out to really know the specifics). Both the 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF continue to be in relatively good agreement showing the potential storm (with some minor timing differences now).

If you have any travel plans (like I do), heads up. If things verify as shown, it will probably be our first true winter storm this year in the local area…

[Busguy2010]

As of right now, the NWS has the snow starting perfectly at midnight on January 1st. That'd be kinda funny. Even if it does spill back into 2021 by an hour or two, that will be okay as the bulk of it is supposed to happen in the morning as of right now... And it doesn't look like much in the forecast so far. But that will likely change. Right now they have it at about a 10-20% chance, but I'm sure that is subject to go up to 80%, as it often does.

[stormchaser]

Just a quick update. The last couple of model runs have trended toward less accumulating snow in our area with the potential storm this coming weekend with the storm really strengthening more to our northeast (after it passes by our area). To clarify, we'd still probably get some accumulating snow in our area but it's tough to really know what to expect locally at this point since it will depend a ton on timing and track of the storm.

[Busguy2010]

During his extended forecast Bill yet again gave very little mention of the system like the last one. I think just as much, if not more than snow, the cold snap associated with it will be pretty significant. That'll be shocking compared to our very warm December. But it looked like it would moderate pretty quickly and even return to slightly above average toward the end of the second week. As of right now, my concern level is low. Maybe just like the last one, tops? So 1-3"? We'll see.

[stormchaser]

During his extended forecast Bill yet again gave very little mention of the system like the last one. I think just as much, if not more than snow, the cold snap associated with it will be pretty significant. That'll be shocking compared to our very warm December. But it looked like it would moderate pretty quickly and even return to slightly above average toward the end of the second week. As of right now, my concern level is low. Maybe just like the last one, tops? So 1-3"? We'll see.

Anybody's guess at this point really as far as snow totals go - just too far out and to many unknowns at this point...

In addition to snow this weekend, we will probably get some flakes in the area this Wednesday as well (though accumulation is unlikely at this point)...hard to say if Omaha will see any of these either since it's a very weak system and the band of snow would probably be very narrow...but close by if not in Omaha itself.

[stormchaser]

Still a fair amount of uncertainty currently with what to expect with the Friday/Saturday storm. The GFS, in particular, has been inconsistent on timing/track of the storm making it difficult to really trust anything that it's showing at this point anyway so for the time being, I'm ruling that one out.

The ECMWF has had the most run-to-run consistency over the last few days and shows our area getting several inches of snow - probably somewhere in the 4"-7" snowfall range locally (though the heavier stuff may pass just south of Omaha if what is currently shown verifies). From what can be seen so far on the NAM (the 00z), it's currently favoring a track that would take the heaviest snow south and impact the Kansas City area with heavy snow. As a result, the most likely scenario right now is to take a blend of what the ECMWF and NAM show which would mean the heavier snow would stay south of Omaha (with Omaha itself only getting relatively light accumulations). But this can change quickly and model trends will need to be watched closely as we get closer.

Hopefully, the 12z run of forecast models will help clear some things up as they should have a better grip on this storm since it's now starting to come on shore out west. I will post an update in a few hours once the 12z run has come in for the different models...

[stormchaser]

Based on the 12z models, I'd say 1"-4" of snow is probably the most likely scenario in Omaha itself right now anyway for Friday night/Saturday with a swath of 4"-8" of snow south of Omaha in the Nebraska City/Falls City area. Still potentially enough to cause some travel issues/slick roads but the heaviest stuff will probably miss us unless things trend north in the coming days (which is possible still)...

[stormchaser]

Blizzard Conditions are Possible in Our Area - especially late Friday night into Saturday afternoon. Keep in mind, even though they are possible, I'm NOT saying they will happen. I'm just stressing they are possible so people need to keep an eye on things if they have travel plans. This storm still has lots of uncertainty.

Despite the uncertainty with snowfall amounts, etc in Omaha itself, odds are relatively high (but not certain) that winter storm watches will be required for this storm including possibly in Omaha (though they may start south of town initially and expand north as things become more certain - I would assume they will start issuing them tonight or tomorrow).

These watches will probably be upgraded to winter storm warnings and in some areas blizzard warnings with sustained winds/gusts based on several models reaching blizzard criteria. Blizzard conditions are currently most likely along and south of I-80 and may or may not include the Omaha area (depending on the track of the storm).

If you have any travel plans (especially from around Omaha on south), be prepared for the potential of difficult travel and road closures if things verify as shown currently.

Like normal, things can quickly change so keep a close eye on things in the coming days. Hopefully, models trend weaker again with things but potential exists anyway for a significant storm in parts of the area...

Wind gusts based on the 18z NAM (the 12z GFS shows stronger winds than this). The specific times depicted are in the top left corner of the animation:


Simulated radar showing snowfall in our area as the winds are gusting causing possible whiteouts in some areas (both during and after the snowfall). Again, specific times are located in the top left corner:

[Louie]

Blizzard Conditions are Possible in Our Area - especially late Friday night into Saturday afternoon.

Despite the uncertainty with snowfall amounts in Omaha itself, odds are relatively high that winter storm watches will be required for this storm including probably in Omaha (though they may start south of town initially and expand north as things become more certain - I would assume they will start issuing them tonight or tomorrow).

These watches will probably be upgraded to winter storm warnings and in some areas blizzard warnings with sustained winds/gusts based on several models reaching blizzard criteria. Blizzard conditions are currently most likely along and south of I-80 and may or may not include the Omaha area (depending on the track of the storm).

If you have any travel plans (especially from around Omaha on south), be prepared for the potential of difficult/impossible travel and road closures if things verify as shown currently.

Wind gusts based on the 18z NAM (the 12z GFS shows stronger winds than this). The specific times depicted are in the top left corner of the animation:


Simulated radar showing snowfall in our area as the winds are gusting causing possible whiteouts in some areas (both during and after the snow fall). Again, specific times are located in the top left corner:

Looks as though this won't start until dawn on Saturday, right?

[stormchaser]

Looks as though this won't start until dawn on Saturday, right?

Based on this specific model/model run anyway (the 18z NAM). Some timing differences still exist between the various models so things may start as early as midnight Friday Night (hard to know specific timing of things yet)...

[Louie]

Looks as though this won't start until dawn on Saturday, right?

Based on this specific model anyway. Some timing differences still exist between the various models so things may start as early as midnight Friday Night (hard to know specific timing of things yet)...

Timing may be dicey for anyone out and about for NYE then.

[stormchaser]

Looks as though this won't start until dawn on Saturday, right?

Based on this specific model anyway. Some timing differences still exist between the various models so things may start as early as midnight Friday Night (hard to know specific timing of things yet)...

Timing may be dicey for anyone out and about for NYE then.

Yep, potentially anyway...

[MadMartin8]

Welp, there goes my drive from Indiana back to Omaha on Sunday.

[stormchaser]

Welp, there goes my drive from Indiana back to Omaha on Sunday.

Unless things change, you should be okay to drive back to Omaha from Indiana on Sunday. You'll probably come across some snow on the way (mostly light stuff) but most of the significant snow will be out of this area and into parts of Michigan/southern Canada by Sunday...

[MadMartin8]

Welp, there goes my drive from Indiana back to Omaha on Sunday.

Unless things change, you should be okay to drive back to Omaha from Indiana on Sunday. You'll probably come across some snow on the way (mostly light stuff) but most of the significant snow will be out of this area and into parts of Michigan southern Canada by Sunday...

The plan was to leave by 4:30am or so, so I am thinking that might not be enough time to clear the highway and interstate very well, especially if it's blowing all over.

[stormchaser]

Welp, there goes my drive from Indiana back to Omaha on Sunday.

Unless things change, you should be okay to drive back to Omaha from Indiana on Sunday. You'll probably come across some snow on the way (mostly light stuff) but most of the significant snow will be out of this area and into parts of Michigan southern Canada by Sunday...

The plan was to leave by 4:30am or so, so I am thinking that might not be enough time to clear the highway and interstate very well, especially if it's blowing all over.

Ahh yeah, you may need to leave later than that by a few hours (assuming you'd take I-80). I'd assume if you held off until 8 or 9 AM you'd be okay though. The biggest issues you may run into would be in parts of northern IL and eastern IA. Stuff west of there should be cleared off by the time you'd come through.

If you take I-70, you should avoid any of those problems though and you'd be fine to leave at 4:30am. Between KC and Omaha you'd run into where the storm came through but it would be cleared off by then.

[ShawJ]

Thanks for all the detailed updates, stormchaser! They're a lot more enjoyable to follow compared to the vague weather sites I use.

[stormchaser]

Thanks for all the detailed updates, stormchaser! They're a lot more enjoyable to follow compared to the vague weather sites I use.

You're welcome - happy to help!

[Busguy2010]

As of this hour, snow totals are in at the NWS. They are currently predicting 4.6" with snow starting at midnight for Omaha. That's fairly conservative compared to what some could see further south of here, but that would still be a healthy amount and welcome (by me at least). Assuming over the next couple days, that could go up or down fairly drastically. I hope about 4-5 inches is what we get. Its not an overwhelming amount, but still good for the ambiance and moisture replenishment. Which, by the way, we are fairly far behind over the last two months. Whatever snow we get, we could really use it.

[Busguy2010]

I would assume people should be fairly okay if they leave their parties/bars shortly after Midnight. But, with a snow storm, and apparently a shortage of rideshare drivers, I bet there will be a lot of drunk dummies out trying to navigate the storm. Hopefully it holds off 'til 2 or 3.

[stormchaser]

00z NAM and 3km NAM are in. Both are showing a fairly sizeable shift back south with this storm. Is this a start of a new model trend that will shift much of the accumulating snow out of the Omaha area and only impact areas south of town? Guess we will have to see what the 00z GFS and ECMWF show in a few hours...

[Busguy2010]

00z NAM and 3km NAM are in. Both are showing a fairly sizeable shift back south with this storm. Is this a start of a new model trend that will shift much of the accumulating snow out of the Omaha area and only impact areas south of town? Guess we will have to see what the 00z GFS and ECMWF show in a few hours...

I really hope not... I mentally NEED a decent snowfall out of this. I will be sorely disappointed if it turns into nothing as did our snowfall potential for today.

[stormchaser]

00z NAM and 3km NAM are in. Both are showing a fairly sizeable shift back south with this storm. Is this a start of a new model trend that will shift much of the accumulating snow out of the Omaha area and only impact areas south of town? Guess we will have to see what the 00z GFS and ECMWF show in a few hours...

I really hope not... I mentally NEED a decent snowfall out of this. I will be sorely disappointed if it turns into nothing as did our snowfall potential for today.

I hear you, lots of dry air in our area that may make things difficult to overcome and if that shift actually happens, we may miss out. Who knows though, shifts in track like this aren’t really uncommon in this time frame and doesn’t necessarily mean much at this point. Not until you see it on several models and a few model runs anyway.

Just a few of the MANY little variables when forecasting winter storms to consider and why the slightest change can make huge differences in how things play out and makes it so difficult to forecast sometimes…

[Busguy2010]

Bill pretty much just reflected what you were saying. It is looking like the big stuff will most likely be south of here and show up a little later than midnight, which is totally fine by me. I just want something. 2-4" would be just fine with me, considering what we've gotten so far. I wouldn't be surprised by an advisory out of it. I just want to see some semblance of winter weather.

[Cermak]

An inch or two would be perfect or even 3-4, but no more than that. We just need the moisture and the white snow would be a nice change from all the brown landscape around us now.

[stormchaser]

As expected, winter storm watches have been issued for areas just barely south of Omaha (the blue shaded counties). They may or may not extend them further north depending on what future model runs show. If there is a shift back north then they probably will. If not, they might not. Should be interesting (like normal)...

[stormchaser]

A few of the models have started shifting back north including the 12z HRRR and 3km NAM. Long story short, there still isn't great model agreement as far as what track this storm is going to take. Seems to me like one of those setups that could easily surprise a lot of people with a sudden shift (either north or south) and will be a forecasting nightmare so just because the winter storm watches are south of Omaha currently, definitely don't be surprised if we get hit harder than expected if a shift back north verifies.

12z HRRR showing the shift north and impacting Omaha with heavier snow:


12z 3km NAM showing the shift north and impacting Omaha with heavier snow:

[Busguy2010]

Caitlin Harvey made me feel much better about our prospects for snow. She showed us in the 3-6" range, but she even added that it will probably be more. YAY!

[stormchaser]

Caitlin Harvey made me feel much better about our prospects for snow. She showed us in the 3-6" range, but she even added that it will probably be more. YAY!

Unfortunately, she's just guessing though (something TV Meteorologists tend to do). Trust me, I want a bigger storm too. I'm not saying she's wrong but ultimately there is no way to know for sure what to expect with this storm at this point. Models have simply been too inconsistent without much model agreement currently and ultimately the track of this storm is going to 100% dictate if Omaha gets heavy snow or not.

If I had to guess, 3"-6" of snow in Omaha seems plausible at this point but ONLY if a southward shift doesn't actually happen (which is what a few models have shown as of late). If it shifts further north, however, (like a few other models have shown including the 12z HRRR which typically is a pretty reliable model, it will likely be closer to 10" of snow in Omaha).

That said, it's an absolute crapshoot at this point until there is model agreement and run to run consistency. I'm leaning toward a shift north though right now. Regardless, with all the wind it's going to be a mess in many areas...

[stormchaser]

As a result of the northward shift on a few models, Omaha has been added to the winter storm watch area...



Here is the official warning text. It says 4"-8" of snow with wind in our area. I'd lean toward closer to 4" or 5" of snow locally though right now (unless the track ends up north like some models are showing).

[stormchaser]

00z models are coming in and are finally in decent agreement. Snow totals in Omaha will probably be around 3”-4”. Closer to 3” of snow in the northwest parts of Omaha, around 4” of snow in Papillion/Bellevue…maybe 5” of snow in Plattsmouth.

That said, Omaha is right on the gradient from heavier snow to lighter snow so a small shift in storm track could quickly change those totals. If the storm shifts north even slightly, 6” or more will be possible. If it shifts south, we may only get an inch or 2 of snow locally. Also, there is lots of dry air in the area that will need to be overcome which could decrease totals some anyway depending how long it takes for things to saturate.

At this point, I’d expect the winter storm watch to be changed to a winter weather advisory in Omaha with winter storm warnings to our south. Winds will cause blowing snow issues but may not reach blizzard warning criteria. If they do, it will probably be to our south.

Still enough to cause a mess either way…and that cold is going to be down right dangerous if caught out in it for much of the weekend…

[Mr.Nuke]

00z models are coming in and are finally in decent agreement. Snow totals in Omaha will probably be around 3”-4”. Closer to 3” of snow in the northwest parts of Omaha, around 4” of snow in Papillion/Bellevue…maybe 5” of snow in Plattsmouth.

I'm not seeing great Oz track consensus and based on the models we have right now (I'm assuming based on the time of your post you have have written it before the GFS came out...) for 0z 3-4" would probably be low if we're solely basing things on that run.

[stormchaser]

00z models are coming in and are finally in decent agreement. Snow totals in Omaha will probably be around 3”-4”. Closer to 3” of snow in the northwest parts of Omaha, around 4” of snow in Papillion/Bellevue…maybe 5” of snow in Plattsmouth.

I'm not seeing great Oz track consensus and based on the models we have right now (I'm assuming based on the time of your post you have have written it before the GFS came out...) for 0z 3-4" would probably be low if we're solely basing things on that run.

Yep, made my post prior to the 00z GFS run and based it on the 00z HRRR and 3km NAM. The 00z ECMWF is similar to the models I referenced to. I’d say the GFS might be an outlier at this point with a slightly further north track but if it does verify, my totals may be too low by an inch or 2. Only time will tell. This snow will be dry/fluffy which tends to accumulate quickly so models may be underestimating things too which would throw off my forecast totals as well…

[stormchaser]

Looks like I was wrong with my snowfall forecast I posted yesterday. Isn’t the first and wont be the last time .

Winter storm warning now issued for Omaha with increasing odds of 6” of snow (or more) with wind. Storm has continued to trend north on recent model runs. Additionally, I failed to factor in the higher snowfall ratios with the cold air causing light/fluffy snow that accumulates quickly (and is easy to blow around). Late tonight and tomorrow are going to be a mess in the local area…

[MadMartin8]

Looking at snowfall maps and timings, I just decided to stay in Indiana till Wednesday. Figured that would be enough time for cleanup and melting. Better safe than sorry.

[stormchaser]

Looking at snowfall maps and timings, I just decided to stay in Indiana till Wednesday. Figured that would be enough time for cleanup and melting. Better safe than sorry.

Probably a good call - always best to be safe

[Louie]

Roads are incredibly slick this morning. Has anyone seen the road crews out salting?

[stormchaser]

I have but clearly they were caught off guard by the freezing fog in the area…

[Cermak]

Many side streets were still slick even late this afternoon. Looks like we are going to get a good taste of winter in the next week, just a few days with temps above freezing. Winter is definitely here now. The mild weather might not be back for a while.

[stormchaser]

Looks like the “Omadome” is working its magic with an area of dry air around Omaha preventing snow from moving in. Because of this, snow totals will probably be lower, I’m thinking 3”-4” of snow in Omaha with higher amounts to our south.