2022 Weather Thread

[BRoss]

Now that I'm back in Omaha, I'm catching up on things. Garden is toast now, so I checked what the real low was that other day (I think it was Tuesday morning) and that low of 16 was actually the record low for that date.

It’s amazing how quickly the trees that still had leaves dropped them after that hard freeze. Those that held on to their leaves are all brown now.

I had a tree behind me that went from being fairly full to losing all its leaves in a 24 hour period. It was raining leaves after that first hard freeze.

[Cermak]

Now that I'm back in Omaha, I'm catching up on things. Garden is toast now, so I checked what the real low was that other day (I think it was Tuesday morning) and that low of 16 was actually the record low for that date.

It’s amazing how quickly the trees that still had leaves dropped them after that hard freeze. Those that held on to their leaves are all brown now.

I had a tree behind me that went from being fairly full to losing all its leaves in a 24 hour period. It was raining leaves after that first hard freeze.

It was mostly the Ash trees that dropped the leaves. This hard freeze was several weeks earlier than average. Sometimes we won't see temps that cold till mid November. But it has happened before, I remember several years ago possibly as much as 10 years ago the same thing happened.

[stormchaser]

The SPC still has a severe weather outlook for us for tomorrow. However, my confidence in anything noteworthy happening has decreased (though obviously still keep an eye on things and they may still change).

Moisture depth still looks lacking and consequently storms may struggle to really even get going. If things do fire, they will probably be pretty scattered and they will likely be FAST moving, damaging wind line segments of storms (with some risk for hail). Tornado threat at this point is very low.

SPC outlook for tomorrow:

[Omaha Cowboy]

The SPC still has a severe weather outlook for us for tomorrow. However, my confidence in anything noteworthy happening has decreased (though obviously still keep an eye on things and they may still change).

Moisture depth still looks lacking and consequently storms may struggle to really even get going. If things do fire, they will probably be pretty scattered and they will likely be FAST moving, damaging wind line segments of storms (with some risk for hail). Tornado threat at this point is very low.

SPC outlook for tomorrow:

It’d be nice to just get some decent rain out of this potential event..but that appears to be lacking…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

The SPC still has a severe weather outlook for us for tomorrow. However, my confidence in anything noteworthy happening has decreased (though obviously still keep an eye on things and they may still change).

Moisture depth still looks lacking and consequently storms may struggle to really even get going. If things do fire, they will probably be pretty scattered and they will likely be FAST moving, damaging wind line segments of storms (with some risk for hail). Tornado threat at this point is very low.

SPC outlook for tomorrow:

It’d be nice to just get some decent rain out of this potential event..but that appears to be lacking…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Unfortunately it’s not looking promising. Most people will probably get minimal, if anything at all.

[stormchaser]

Either way it’s going to be windy so lots of leaves are about to come down today and tomorrow…

[Busguy2010]

Yeah, its going to be very annoyingly windy the next few days. That'll be the most notable thing.

[stormchaser]

Yeah, its going to be very annoyingly windy the next few days. That'll be the most notable thing.

Yeah, for most people anyway. There probably will be some severe storms but most people won’t see anything.

A more widespread round of rain is expected on Monday but it’s depicted to mostly pass southeast of Omaha currently. Would be nice if it shifts north/northwest some…

[Brad]

Is it bad the best storm structure I saw all year was last weekend in Phoenix? Lol.

I sure hope we get some rain, but at least it’s warm enough to keep the sprinkler system going for a couple more weeks.

[stormchaser]

Is it bad the best storm structure I saw all year was last weekend in Phoenix? Lol.

I sure hope we get some rain, but at least it’s warm enough to keep the sprinkler system going for a couple more weeks.

Yeah, this year has been pretty rough for chasing...

Storms are starting to fire in central parts of NE and KS. Also, notice the nice dust cloud being kicked up in parts of KS/southern NE (behind the storms that are trying to form) heading our direction...

[stormchaser]

So the southern extent of the storms/rain struggled to get going yesterday (as expected). Consequently, the rain today was able to shift north so the Omaha area is getting (and will continue to get) some much needed rain...

[ita]

I don't have any scientific input or analysis; just want to say, thank goodness for some moisture today! Also, I have family from out of town visiting this weekend, and it looks like weather should be pretty stable with some mild fall temperatures. I am crossing my fingers the weather holds; we want to take them to the Riverfront and show off GLM.

[Cermak]

I also was happy to see the rain today , I don't think we got a lot, but it was good to get something. It was mostly a steady drizzle at my house that lasted at least a couple hours. My guess less than 1/4 inch.

[BRoss]

My guess less than 1/4 inch.

0.22" where I am.

[skinzfan23]

My guess less than 1/4 inch.

0.22" where I am.

About the same in Bellevue

[Busguy2010]

Today's rain, and our acceptance of it really feels like getting with the ugly girl of the group. Yes it was something and welcome, but it was merely a drop in the bucket of our deficit. That'll tell you how bad it's been when we are jumping for joy over a couple tenths of an inch.

[stormchaser]

Aside from "maybe" some light rain this evening (though most, if not all will likely miss us to the west and north and if anything does fall here, it will be light), our next legit chance of rain still looks to be ~10 days out (sometime around November 6th or 7th there is some decent model agreement and run to run consistency between the GFS and ECMWF - but it's a LONG way out so confidence is obviously extremely low at this point).

Otherwise the drought conditions look to continue for much of the area...

[Busguy2010]

Crazy, I just realized we this month we had both a record low (16, Oct 18) and record high (87, Oct 23) five days from each other.

[stormchaser]

Looking like rain chances increase later this week into this weekend (which is good news)

[Busguy2010]

It looks like they think that rain chance will be fairly decent. Starting Thursday night and continuing through the weekend, looks like it's supposed to be a pretty gloomy, very fall-like period.

[stormchaser]

It looks like they think that rain chance will be fairly decent. Starting Thursday night and continuing through the weekend, looks like it's supposed to be a pretty gloomy, very fall-like period.

Yep, maybe even some strong/severe storms not too far away (from near Lincoln on southwest from there probably but I wouldn't rule out a few stronger storms around Omaha too Thursday evening/night).

Possibly our first flakes of snow late Friday night/early Saturday morning too (though odds of that are low and it would just be a few flurries at night which most people wouldn't even see if it happened - at least in Omaha. Further west in west/central NE there may be some flakes during daylight hours on Thursday/Friday).

[stormchaser]

Looking increasingly likely for accumulating snow late Friday night/early Saturday. From a dusting up to 3 inches of slushy accumulation looks possible currently in Omaha…

[Busguy2010]

Wow, that's crazy how much the odds have gone up! NWS now saying 1.71" of rain and 2" of snow! Yippee! They did specify that it would be a very narrow swath and that it could easily shift.

[stormchaser]

Wow, that's crazy how much the odds have gone up! NWS now saying 1.71" of rain and 2" of snow! Yippee! They did specify that it would be a very narrow swath and that it could easily shift.

This time of year is always crazy difficult to forecast. Not only do you need to deal with potential timing/track changes but also rain changing to snow so timing of when that happens, surface temps being warm so snow may melt for a while as it falls so how quickly it actually starts to accumulate, etc will all play HUGE roles in what happens…

[Brad]

This time of year is always crazy difficult to forecast. Not only do you need to deal with potential timing/track changes but also rain changing to snow so timing of when that happens, surface temps being warm so snow may melt for a while as it falls so how quickly it actually starts to accumulate, etc will all play HUGE roles in what happens…

Seems like we have had more than a few early snow storms where they say the ground is too warm and then we get such a heavy wet snow, it overcomes the ground temp really quickly.

[stormchaser]

This time of year is always crazy difficult to forecast. Not only do you need to deal with potential timing/track changes but also rain changing to snow so timing of when that happens, surface temps being warm so snow may melt for a while as it falls so how quickly it actually starts to accumulate, etc will all play HUGE roles in what happens…

Seems like we have had more than a few early snow storms where they say the ground is too warm and then we get such a heavy wet snow, it overcomes the ground temp really quickly.

Yep, at night especially it can overcome the warm ground temps if snow rates are high enough. That said, the snow will be heavy/wet due to the air temp being near freezing (so the snow will compress itself down from the weight). This combined with the warm surface temps, wet surfaces from the rain and I’d lean toward a dusting for most people and “maybe” a few isolated places with slightly higher amounts on mostly grassy areas…

Who knows though, only time will tell…

[Busguy2010]

Probably gonna see a good amount of impressive tornado videos from todays storms down south.

[skinzfan23]

Don't know if the rain is done yet for the day but I got .95in in Bellevue.

[stormchaser]

Don't know if the rain is done yet for the day but I got .95in in Bellevue.

Probably not yet - we should get some more tonight and then maybe a little snow during the overnight but much of the heaviest precip will probably end up east of Omaha

Probably gonna see a good amount of impressive tornado videos from todays storms down south.

Unfortunately - some of which will likely happen after dark too which makes things that much more dangerous.

[stormchaser]

For our area, long range models are starting to pick up on the potential for a significant winter storm late next week/next weekend (around November 11th/12th). It's obviously too far out to really know if it will happen and where/to what extent if it does, but the ECMWF in particular has been showing a very large area in our region getting in excess of a foot of snow for a couple model runs now. GFS isn't nearly as aggressive but it's starting to trend towards a snow storm too.

Obviously tons of uncertainty at this point but something to keep an eye on in the coming days to see if model trends continue.

Just an early heads up.

Also - if you're on social media, please be mindful of the sources for the weather forecast information you're seeing. This is the time of year, attention seeking people like to post EXTREMELY overhyped winter storm "forecast" information in an attempt to get as many likes/shares as possible. If in doubt, always check with and rely on forecast information from the NWS.

[stormchaser]

Also, its worth noting. KETV is insisting there will be areas south/southeast of Omaha that will get in excess of 3" of snow tonight/early tomorrow morning. I'd be SHOCKED if this actually happens. I'd honestly be surprised if ANY place around here gets over an inch of snow from this system (with most places getting very little, if any accumulation at all).

Sometimes the forecasts from the local media makes me cringe...but hey, only time will tell I guess. Maybe they'll be right?

[Busguy2010]

Eh, It feels like a big dud to me. NWS recording .47" today, with KETV now saying odds are it pushes even farther SE. I hope something wobbles and we catch more of an edge of the storm that it appears we will.

[stormchaser]

Eh, It feels like a big dud to me. NWS recording .47" today, with KETV now saying odds are it pushes even farther SE. I hope something wobbles and we catch more of an edge of the storm that it appears we will.

Yep - I’m not expecting anything noteworthy out of this system (something I’ve been saying since last night already just to clarify) - though we will still probably get some precip late tonight (main stuff will pass east of us).

Late next week into next week still has potential for a significant storm in the area. Too far out to be confident yet though.

[stormchaser]

Late week/next weekend (11/10 - 11/12) potential storm update:

Models are in relatively good agreement with a significant winter storm moving out into the plains later this week/into next weekend. However, storm track has shifted northwest and now the Dakotas into Minnesota will likely see the brunt of winter weather (with a potential ice storm and blizzard for parts of that region).

If track holds, Omaha would end up on the warm side of the low - which “could” mean rain/storms. However, the ECMWF keeps us dry. The GFS produces potentially severe weather east of us into IA as the cold front pushes through - so lots of uncertainty still.

Long story short, for now it looks like we would likely miss out on most weather impacts aside from windy/cold weather after the cold front pushes through. Things like this can change quickly though (especially these “early season” storms as the seasons start to transition as we recently saw a couple days ago where it went from looking like rain in Omaha to potential accumulating snow to completely missing the 2nd round of precip off to our east) so still keep an eye on things in the coming days - especially if you have any travel plans.

[stormchaser]

As I mentioned the other day, Omaha is currently depicted to be on the warm side of the low with the significant storm system that is expected to bring a potential blizzard to parts of the Dakotas, etc later this week into this weekend and as a result, we could see some potential thunderstorms/severe weather here in Omaha later this week.

The SPC now has a "day 4 outlook" (image below) for severe weather potential in the area Thursday. However, like most of severe weather threats this time of year, moisture depth (especially moisture aloft) tends to be lacking as does instability which can be difficult for storms to overcome. That said, with a STRONG low pressures like this one, the dynamics are pretty crazy so not much is needed for severe weather to occur.

Right now, all storm modes appear possible including a threat for supercells and tornadoes (though the tornado threat is conditional currently). Since this is a cold front, storms tend to struggle with getting "undercut" by cold air and consequently have a tough time maintaining a strong enough inflow of warm/moisture rich air to produce. That said, there "might" be enough of a southeasterly surface wind to keep the inflow strong enough with this system that tornadoes certainly "could" be a risk. It's simply too far away yet to know as it will come down to where the low ends up at peak heating, how much moisture depth there ends up being, and if things are negatively tilted enough to give us a strong enough southeasterly wind ahead of the front.

If nothing else, damaging wind and hail will be a threat (assuming storms can get going anyway).

Should be an interesting few days coming up...

Here is the day 4 outlook area from the SPC:

[Omaha Cowboy]

As always, just hoping for a moisture event out of this (and hopefully not frozen moisture, lol)..

Thanks for the continued updates stormchaser …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

As always, just hoping for a moisture event out of this (and hopefully not frozen moisture, lol)..

Thanks for the continued updates stormchaser …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

No problem!

It's worth mentioning, models have been trending east with the severe weather threat today so much of the threat "might" end up to our east into Iowa (like so many other times this year).

[Omaha Cowboy]

As always, just hoping for a moisture event out of this (and hopefully not frozen moisture, lol)..

Thanks for the continued updates stormchaser …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

No problem!

It's worth mentioning, models have been trending east with the severe weather threat today so much of the threat "might" end up to our east into Iowa (like so many other times this year).

That definitely seems to be the dominating pattern this year…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

That definitely seems to be the dominating pattern this year…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

It does, and to me it's frustrating. I ask, what do you (or anybody) prefer? Abnormally dry, warm, and windy, or cooler and wetter. I get that the warmer temps lend more to the idea of outdoor activities, but they are usually accompanied by wind, And coupled with drought, it makes it almost impossible to have a safe fire and IMO, that is half the appeal of warm weather: grilling. As well as taking my boat out. I can't feasibly boat when the winds are over 10mph. And disc golfing (or regular golfing) is almost unenjoyable.

I will take a cold wet day so I can't even consider doing those things, and save myself the disappointment.

[stormchaser]

As expected based on model trends, the severe weather threat for Thursday has mostly shifted east of Omaha into Iowa.

The main weather impacts in Omaha from this storm system at this point will likely be strong winds and plummeting temps with some rain on Thursday as the front comes through (though it probably won't add up to a ton - "maybe" .25" in a few areas at most but most will see minimal amounts).

Looks like we will see an extended period of sub-freezing (or near freezing) temps in Omaha as well with highs generally remaining in the 20s or low 30s through November 17th (though things can quickly change but this is how it looks currently).

Another potential snow producer is depicted toward the middle of the month on the ECMWF but right now tracks south of Omaha and impacts areas of KS, etc. Too far out to have any confidence either way but something to keep any eye on.

Certainly going to "feel" like November for a while...

Latest SPC outlook for Thursday showing the threat mostly east of us now into Iowa: