2023 Weather Thread

Post by **Brad** » Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:59 pm

stormchaser wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 5:42 pm Yep, pretty good agreement overall anyway.

LOL, until I saw this. Glad the other models don't agree!

GFS-SNOW.JPG

Post by **Brad** » Mon Jan 16, 2023 8:18 pm

Meanwhile to our east, tornado near Williamsport Iowa.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Mon Jan 16, 2023 8:38 pm

Coyote wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:53 pm
BRoss wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:50 pm Frankie is in agreement too.
I was wondering where he went to….

I second this!

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Mon Jan 16, 2023 8:43 pm

That’s crazy they’re getting a tornado in the Amana colonies in the middle of January

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:22 pm

Likely tornado spotted southeast of Cedar Rapids Monday afternoon

A likely tornado was seen by storm spotters on Monday afternoon just southeast of Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:23 pm

Still some uncertainty with the storm system for tomorrow/early Thursday - more specifically with precip type in southeast NE (including "maybe" Omaha).

That being said, the GFS and ECMWF are in very good agreement at this point and both bring a swath of heavy snow across our area. IF this happens as shown, snow totals "could" approach 10"-12" in Omaha itself. I'm not saying this will 100% happen, but odds are currently increasing.

The main "unknown" is if precip will mostly stay all snow in Omaha. Based on the GFS and ECMWF, it will. Based on the NAM, it won't which would signficantly decrease snow totals.

I realize official forecasts currently call for 4"-6" of snow for Omaha but I'd expect them to bump those totals up shortly based on the GFS and ECMWF anyway as they start upgrading things to winter storm warnings for our area (which I'm assuming will happen this morning).

Post by **Brad** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:17 pm

stormchaser wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:23 pm The main "unknown" is if precip will mostly stay all snow in Omaha. Based on the GFS and ECMWF, it will. Based on the NAM, it won't which would signficantly decrease snow totals.

NAM shows 3.0" of snow with .37" of Ice! No thanks...

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:13 pm

Brad wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 2:17 pm
stormchaser wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:23 pm The main "unknown" is if precip will mostly stay all snow in Omaha. Based on the GFS and ECMWF, it will. Based on the NAM, it won't which would signficantly decrease snow totals.
NAM shows 3.0" of snow with .37" of Ice! No thanks...

I agree, no thanks.

Based on the model agreement between the GFS and ECMWF, and a southward trend (albeit minor) observed on the NAM, I’m leaning toward more snow than anything currently but it’s a difficult forecast. One model run of the NAM showed I think 1-2 inches in Omaha and over 9 inches in Fremont so possibly a very tight gradient near or over Omaha.

On a side note, the amount of negativity I’ve heard as of late toward weather people is sad. Unless you understand why/how a forecast failed, people shouldn’t criticize. Forecasting (especially winter storms) is EXTREMELY difficult.

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:27 pm

stormchaser wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:13 pm On a side note, the amount of negativity I’ve heard as of late toward weather people is sad. Unless you understand why/how a forecast failed, people shouldn’t criticize. Forecasting (especially winter storms) is EXTREMELY difficult.

This x1,000. Meteorologists should just post the math formulae behind their forecasts on Twitter and let everyone else suffer to figure it out since it's "so easy".

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:24 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:27 pm
stormchaser wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:13 pm On a side note, the amount of negativity I’ve heard as of late toward weather people is sad. Unless you understand why/how a forecast failed, people shouldn’t criticize. Forecasting (especially winter storms) is EXTREMELY difficult.
This x1,000. Meteorologists should just post the math formulae behind their forecasts on Twitter and let everyone else suffer to figure it out since it's "so easy".

Agree.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:40 pm

12z HRRR is in (one of the main short range models). It shows predominantely snowfall currently with heavy snowfall occuring over Omaha for several hours.

I'm not saying this is 100% going to happen - but chances for signficant snowfall continue to increase in the Omaha area. Things of course can change and where that transition line ends up will be key. If it ends up south of Omaha, we will get more snow. If it ends up over or north of Omaha, we will get more ice/mix.

Also, another thing that will complicate the forecast. With air temps depicted close to freezing, snow may initially struggle to accumulate. However, if snowfall rates are as heavy as depicted, it won’t be an issue for very long (probably).

Animated loop showing precip type from the 12z HRRR:

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:40 pm

12z ECMWF is in and it echoes what the 12z HRRR is showing. Based on model trends, I'd be SHOCKED if we don't end up with at least 6" of snow out of this in Omaha with some areas possibly approaching a foot (especially areas just west and north of Omaha but possibly here in town too).

Ultimately like I said, it will come down to where that transition line ends up which will be tough to know for sure until the precip starts (or is about to start).

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 6:51 pm

Out of boredom and curiosity, I checked the main media weather sources and here are there estimates:
KPTM 5-8in
KETV 3-6in
KMTV 4-7in
WOWT 4-7in
WeatherUnderground 9.9in
AccuWeather 6-10in
Weather Channel 8-13in

Added up and taking the average we are looking at 7.48in. We'll see what reality brings us.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:18 pm

Weather channel is definitely being more liberal. Local news is playing a little safe. NWS is saying 4.7" as of now... So it sounds like no matter what, we will end up with something decent. I like it. The more the better, up to 12" IMO. We haven't had a good one like that in a while.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:45 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 7:18 pm Weather channel is definitely being more liberal. Local news is playing a little safe. NWS is saying 4.7" as of now... So it sounds like no matter what, we will end up with something decent. I like it. The more the better, up to 12" IMO. We haven't had a good one like that in a while.

Yeah TWC really stood out amongst the rest, without that the average was around 6.88in.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 8:42 pm

Right now I’d lean towards 10-12” of now in Omaha itself with isolated higher amounts. Unfortunately power outages are a real possibility given the fact this will be extremely heavy/wet snow…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 8:52 pm

Winter storm warning now in effect for Omaha. Official forecast says 3"-8" of snow as they are still expecting more of a mix. Personally I think these amounts are too conservative but I guess we will see

Warning details here:
https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx. ... n=-96.0367

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 8:57 pm

Things I WON'T do tonight to prepare for the storm include going anywhere near a Costco. No way dude.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:14 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 8:57 pm Things I WON'T do tonight to prepare for the storm include going anywhere near a Costco. No way dude.

Unless you have a death wish, that's a good plan.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:33 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 8:57 pm Things I WON'T do tonight to prepare for the storm include going anywhere near a Costco. No way dude.

Lol same...

It's worth mentioning there is a decent chance we will see some "thundersnow" in the Omaha area out of this which is always fun...

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:10 pm

The official forecast from the NWS keeps increasing - which doesn't surprise me. Based on model trends, I believe they are still under estimating snow totals for Omaha (which they have now at 5"-9" of snow).

Personally, I'm expecting somewhere in the 8"-12" of snow range with isolated higher amounts. Either way, more than enough to cause problems including probably some power outages.

This is the latest snowfall forecast map from the NWS:

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:32 pm

For reference, these are the depicted snow totals based on the 12z HRRR (the most recent run).

To clarify, I'm not suggesting these depicted snow totals are accurate. At least SOME of the precip in and around Omaha will probably fall as a mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow and the model is struggling with determining how much. Models also tend to over estimate snow totals so you almost always have to subtract at least a couple of inches off of what is shown no matter what.

That being said, I'd be surprised if anything less than 8" worth of snow falls in Omaha with the potential for totals approaching or even exceeding a foot in isolated areas - but it depends on if precip in Omaha starts out as more of a mix and if so, how long it takes to change over to all snow.

Should be interesting...

**This is not a forecast - read the text I included above this image**

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 3:10 pm

We're just riding that line along freezing so tightly. It's gonna be a mixed bag of sh1tty precip until temps fall for the night. Bah!

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 3:26 pm

Nebraska snow storm closes major roads Wednesday, travel discouraged

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:07 pm

almighty_tuna wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 3:10 pm We're just riding that line along freezing so tightly. It's gonna be a mixed bag of sh1tty precip until temps fall for the night. Bah!

I'm thinking we will switch to all snow sometime early this afternoon - by 3 PM at the latest. I guess we will see though.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 4:40 pm

Snow has begun on the western/southwestern side of Omaha (Gretna/Valley). Will be interesting if it ends up being snow itself in Omaha too here shortly as precip moves in from the south/southwest

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 5:43 pm

First flakes just started falling in West O. Haven't seen any other precip (graupel/rain/mist/cats & dogs) until now.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 6:17 pm

Fatttttt snowflakes falling in Dundee. It's not melting right away, to my surprise.

Post by **BRoss** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 6:18 pm

Had some sleet coming down with snow but it is pretty much just snow now. It's starting to cover everything already.

I put down some ice block, so hopefully that helps some and doesn't just get washed away.

Post by **Brad** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 6:32 pm

These flakes are huge!

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 7:46 pm

Still don't have many snowflakes here in south Bellevue, mostly just sleet that has fallen so far, although it appears that it might be changing to snow.

Post by **Brad** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:07 pm

Mike Seidel from the Weather Channel reporting live from the Gene Leahy Mall

almighty_tuna · Post by **almighty_tuna** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:24 pm

That's awesome! Now, turn that camera around for the Chamber of Commerce view!

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:03 pm

Switched back to sleet for the past half hour at least...starting to think snow totals will be less.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:15 pm

Its not doing anything at the moment in North Omaha. Id have to say maybe a half inch so far. But havent had the chance to check the radar.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:52 pm

OMA Dome lives!

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:52 pm

Winter Storm Warning canceled at 3:45 pm.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:55 pm

What a bust

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:59 pm

We really are at the Apex of everything. And nothing.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Jan 18, 2023 10:01 pm

Its just been raining. Its good, but I was excited for snow.