2024 Weather Thread

[Coyote]

NOAA releases 2023-2024 winter outlook



As we transition into a strong El Nino this winter, what could that mean for our wintertime temperatures and precipitation?

[Coyote]

The Weather Channel Unveils the 2023-2024 Winter Storm Names List



Download The Weather Channel TV app NOW on your smart TV and get access to our LIVE coverage and original shows, plus exclusive, app-only content!

[nativeomahan]

Came across the weather station in Key West yesterday. Right in the center of town. Ironically, the weather forecasters can order up a “blizzard” almost any time of the year…
A DQ is located directly across the street. lol

[stormchaser]

Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF long range models are starting to show potentially a more active weather pattern setting up sometime around January 8th or 9th. This includes the POTENTIAL for a significant winter storm somewhere in the area.

Both models are in pretty good agreement (with some timing differences - which should be expected this far out) and are showing a strong storm system in Colorado that ultimately heads our direction. Of course things are way more likely to change and/or miss us considering how things have gone this year and how far out this is - but something to keep an eye on anyway.

12z GFS:




12z ECMWF:

[stormchaser]

Its continuing to look like potential for a significant winter storm and potential blizzard (though it's too far out to know) for sometime around January 8th/9th. Considering how much run to run consistency and model agreement there is, odds are about as high as they can be this far out. That obviously doesn't mean we are 100% going to get hit by this but odds are definitely increasing anyway...

[Coyote]

Early January Snow Storm:
Wx Models Battle It Out



Weather models don't know what to make of the storm potential January 8-9, 2024.
Some say a LOT. Other say none at all!

[Brad]

Its continuing to look like potential for a significant winter storm and potential blizzard (though it's too far out to know) for sometime around January 8th/9th. Considering how much run to run consistency and model agreement there is, odds are about as high as they can be this far out. That obviously doesn't mean we are 100% going to get hit by this but odds are definitely increasing anyway...

I was just cruising through the models for next week's storm. The GFS went from 14.7" to 0.5" overnight.

[skinzfan23]

So is the storm supposed to go north or south of us on the GFS (or did it just go away altogether?)

[Brad]

So is the storm supposed to go north or south of us on the GFS (or did it just go away altogether?)

Currently looks worse to the south and southwest of the Omaha metro. Still a ways off though.

[stormchaser]

So is the storm supposed to go north or south of us on the GFS (or did it just go away altogether?)

Currently looks worse to the south and southwest of the Omaha metro. Still a ways off though.

Yep, based on the GFS anyway. The ECMWF has been showing our area getting hit hard but like Brad said, it's just too far out to know. It'll come down to timing/track of the storm.

[Brad]

Yep, based on the GFS anyway. The ECMWF has been showing our area getting hit hard but like Brad said, it's just too far out to know. It'll come down to timing/track of the storm.

Correct me if I'm wrong, the most current ECMWF was run at 7pm last night and not this morning?

[stormchaser]

Correct me if I'm wrong, the most current ECMWF was run at 7pm last night and not this morning?

Technically there is a 06z run this morning also but I generally disregard those since the 06z and 18z tend to be less reliable. I was referring to the 00z ECMWF from 7 PM last night though with my reply.

That said, the 12z ECMWF is in now and still shows our area getting hit pretty hard though some shift to the east/southeast has been observed on this run. Obviously take these totals with HUGE grain of salt and expect things to change - possibly drastically.

In addition to snow, strong winds will likely cause blowing snow issues as well and probably a blizzard in some areas.

**This is not a forecast. This is just 1 single model run of 1 single model**

12z ECMWF forecast snow totals:


12z GFS forecast snow totals:

[Louie]

Holy cow. If it happened, 30 inches of snow that far south would be devastating.

[Busguy2010]

I like snow, so I'd be happy if we got a decent 6" or so. I'd be happy with 12" or so as well, that's the most I've ever seen in my life living in Omaha, albeit a handful of times. Anything more than that would certainly be a notable event. I wonder what the highest event total snowfall is for Omaha...

[Cermak]

I like snow, so I'd be happy if we got a decent 6" or so. I'd be happy with 12" or so as well, that's the most I've ever seen in my life living in Omaha, albeit a handful of times. Anything more than that would certainly be a notable event. I wonder what the highest event total snowfall is for Omaha...

I hope we get a few inches Maybe 2-4 but not much more.

[Brad]

Technically there is a 06z run this morning also but I generally disregard those since the 06z and 18z tend to be less reliable. I was referring to the 00z ECMWF from 7 PM last night though with my reply.

I see the 06z run on the list, but why doesn't lit let me pick it? I can only pick the 00Z run from last night.

The GFS this morning down to just over an inch.

[Busguy2010]

Wow, looks like it's gonna be quite cold after this storm moves through. Could make a run at breaking that non-below-zero streak already.

As far as the storm, I'm always leary when a forecast tells us we're going to get a big dumping of snow. Especially when one says we're gonna get next to nothing. The local news is starting to talk about it, but they know as much as we do still. It feels like there's pretty high odds of it being a bust. Just how it feels to me.

[Brad]

The 12Z ECMWF has now has us at 10.4" and the 12Z GFS has pushed up back up to 5". Remember its just one run of the model, not a forecast.

The 12Z ECMWF:

12Z-ECMWF.JPG

[stormchaser]

**This is unofficial and represents my opinion only. Please only rely on official weather information from the NWS**

Here are my preliminary thoughts for snow totals for the storm system expected this coming Monday into Tuesday in our area (January 8th/9th). Its worth mentioning an additional, possibly more powerful storm is being depicted a few days later too (sometime around January 12th) - so looks like winter is about to really kick in locally.

These snow totals are probably a bit on the conservative side in some areas but it's just too early yet. Some areas will probably see snow totals approaching or exceeding a foot but it's impossible to know where yet. It "might" be in our area, but there is still plenty of uncertainty.

If we do get snow in Omaha, there will also be blowing snow issues Tuesday morning (in particular) in eastern NE/western IA. Right now it doesn't look like it'll meet blizzard criteria (that's more likely down into KS), but still enough to cause some travel/visibility problems in open areas.

Anyhow, here is my current snowfall totals map. Like I said, these will probably change as we get closer - especially once the storm comes on shore and we start getting better data. I'll post updates once we know more.

The NWS will likely start issuing winter storm watches later today for this upcoming storm.

[Brad]

**This is unofficial and represents my opinion only. Please only rely on official weather information from the NWS**

I summarized all the models from the whole week in to a single image... LOL! Thanks for your well thought out forecast Stormchaser!

Snow-Ne_County-Model.jpg

[stormchaser]

**This is unofficial and represents my opinion only. Please only rely on official weather information from the NWS**

I summarized all the models from the whole week in to a single image... LOL! Thanks for your well thought out forecast Stormchaser!

Snow-Ne_County-Model.jpg

LOL, no problem!

[nebugeater]

**This is unofficial and represents my opinion only. Please only rely on official weather information from the NWS**

I summarized all the models from the whole week in to a single image... LOL! Thanks for your well thought out forecast Stormchaser!

Snow-Ne_County-Model.jpg

I think your range is off a bit.

Should be 0" - 36"

[Brad]

I think your range is off a bit.

Should be 0" - 36"

That's the range if you take the early week forecast and combine it with the following weekend forecast...

[BRoss]

**This is unofficial and represents my opinion only. Please only rely on official weather information from the NWS**

I summarized all the models from the whole week in to a single image... LOL! Thanks for your well thought out forecast Stormchaser!

Snow-Ne_County-Model.jpg

I think your range is off a bit.

Should be 0" - 36"

Better be safe and make the range 0" - 100".

[stormchaser]

For what it's worth, we should get a few flakes of snow here this afternoon. No accumulation is expected though in our area (maybe some minor stuff to our south in northern KS/far southeast NE though).

[skinzfan23]

I have heard about the snowflakes this afternoon or evening, but I’m not quite sure why Bellevue was out spraying brine on the streets

[Busguy2010]

I have heard about the snowflakes this afternoon or evening, but I’m not quite sure why Bellevue was out spraying brine on the streets

We could get up to an inch between today and tomorrow, but not likely. So yeah, I dunno why they brine for such a minute amount. It'll have little to no affect on travel.

[skinzfan23]

Not to derail the thread, but I absolutely hate that stuff and of course I was right behind the truck. It is absolutely horrible for your vehicle. I understand the thought behind it, but in this scenario, it just seems like a waste of effort and tax dollars since not much snow is expected today if we get any at all.

[Busguy2010]

I agree, they should have just saved it for the real storm on Monday. They're gonna have to reapply regardless.

[Brad]

I hate that brine, makes such a mess! Omaha Scanner was calling it beat juice. Some else started calling it "Hog Pi$$", such an appropriate name! LOL

[Louie]

I hate that brine, makes such a mess! Omaha Scanner was calling it beat juice. Some else started calling it "Hog Pi$$", such an appropriate name! LOL

I think beet juice is actually used in some states.

[nebugeater]

I hate that brine, makes such a mess! Omaha Scanner was calling it beat juice. Some else started calling it "Hog Pi$$", such an appropriate name! LOL

Some parts of the country actually use beet juice as the base for brine. Then, in addition to the brian attacking your vehicle, you get the stain from the beets.

[stormchaser]

12z ECMWF is in and it pretty well aligns with what I'm thinking for snow totals (which I included in my map that I posted earlier today). However, the chance of seeing 8"+ of snow in the area seems to be decreasing. This feels like a solid 4"-8" snowfall type event in the local area with decreased amounts off to our east probably.

One of the challenges with this storm is a new storm system will form further south in KS and impact MO, etc. As this happens, it'll gradually kill off the precip up here. How quickly that happens will be one of the main keys as to how much snow we get (in addition to temps - if they are in the 20s, things should have no problem accumulating but if they end up 30+ degrees, then some of the snow will probably melt as it falls).

Like normal, plenty of time for things to completely change yet.

[Busguy2010]

I hope. 4-8" would be decent in my book. Id give it a 7 out of 10. Just like how I hope for decent thunderstorms in spring, I hope for decent snowstorms in winter. I need that variability. For it to be January 5th and there be very little snow on the ground is just odd.

[stormchaser]

LOL, the 18z NAM is in and this is what it's showing (for as far out as you can see it so far) - with ongoing heavy snow occurring in our area so accumulations in addition to what this shows.

Keep in mind, this is EXTREMELY unlikely at this point. But interesting that the medium range models are showing our area getting absolutely destroyed by this storm and a trend that will need to be watched anyway to see if anything else starts trending towards this one. Most other models have gradually decreased totals some (which is typical as we get closer).

Anyhow, if this were to happen, totals would approach 1.5 to 2 FEET of snow with this storm.

[Coyote]

Next Big Storm Potential



The first big potential snow of the new year is headed our way. How much snow will you get? Let's find out!

[stormchaser]

As expected, the NWS has started issuing winter storm watches for the upcoming storm - including in Omaha. Officially 3"-7" forecast (which aligns with my thoughts despite what the whacky stuff the NAM is showing currently).

More Info:
https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx. ... n=-96.0594

Map showing what they've issued so far (though I'd expect pretty much all of the counties around us to be included once they've finished issuing them all):

[Brad]

despite what the whacky stuff the NAM is showing currently

What, you don't like that 18.7" its showing??? LOL!

[Coyote]

Winter storm takes aim at eastern Nebraska for
Monday, January 8th - Tuesday, January 9th, 2024



Potentially moderate to heavy snow could impact eastern Nebraska early next week with several inches of accumulating snow possible across the area.

[stormchaser]

despite what the whacky stuff the NAM is showing currently

What, you don't like that 18.7" its showing??? LOL!

Gotta love it - with ongoing heavy snow still occurring. Crazy forecast models sometimes...