2024 Weather Thread

[Busguy2010]

Pretty much just rain now.

[Brad]

The National Weather Service is now re-doing their forecast because we are 2-3 degrees too warm.

[Busguy2010]

I'm betting under 3" accumulation now. The additional moisture is always welcome, though. Looks like my experiment probably will be all for naught.

[stormchaser]

Snow accumulation reports so far anyway. Around 8" of snow near Columbus and 4.5" of snow as close as Wahoo.

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=oax

[Busguy2010]

As of right now, about .75" of snow. Very wet. Almost needed a shovel to clear the patio, but got away with a push broom. Definitely a low ratio snow. It would be better to just have been rain at this point.

[Busguy2010]

I firmly belive I spoke it into existence lol. Since I brushed the patio off about an hour ago, I now have an inch more, and it's coming down heavy.

[stormchaser]

Also, around Noon into early this afternoon is when we should see the 2"+ per hour snowfall rates so things are probably going to go down hill here shortly...

One of the joys of spending most of winter in a land where snow is encountered as often as Martian soil and ice is reserved for beverage glasses is missing all of these snowmageddons. I still fret about everyone getting fender benders or stuck in snow drifts, and with the 2” an hour apparently coming down the city should be pretty much burried by the evening “crash hour”. I guess the Omadome has failed?
One thing, my security cam seems broken, as it shows driveways just wet, and mostly a bare grass yards. Obviously it’s contradicting reality at 2:30 pm?

To clarify, I was just referring to the info being provided by the NWS with their forecast which suggested 2”+ per hour rates starting around noon (which did happen but not in Omaha itself). We simply remained too warm locally.

[Coyote]

[stormchaser]

I'd say about 4-4.5 inches of snow in Millard as I was shoveling here this morning. Heavy/wet stuff which is always fun.

[thenewguy]

we had 3 or 4 in cb, but some drifts are sizeable... I work by Gretna and we had mostly snow all day, but when I got home last night, Council Bluffs barely had anything at all. Ground was almost completely brown

[Busguy2010]

A big ol whiff IMO. MAYBE 2.5" overnight on top of the 1.1" the NWS reported for yesterday.

[Louie]

Most of my yard is measuring around 5"

[Cermak]

I haven’t been out yet but I would say just looking at it around 3-4 inches, 114th and W. Center area. I think some was melting yesterday during the day. Still one of the most significant snowfalls we’ve had in the last few years. Shows how mild and dry our winters have been lately.

[Louie]

Well, with this round over, what should we expect with the next system that will be rolling through Thursday evening?

[Busguy2010]

Funny how there always seems to be payback with the weather. We just had our first year without a below 0 temp in 80 years and one of the warmest Decembers on record. Now this weekend we probably will see our first negative high temperature since (?) And our first double digit negative low in (x years?). I'm not sure when the last time these two have happened, but it feels like it's been at least a few years. I'm sure we'll hear about it on the local news.

[damonhynes]

Funny how there always seems to be payback with the weather. We just had our first year without a below 0 temp in 80 years and one of the warmest Decembers on record. Now this weekend we probably will see our first negative high temperature since (?) And our first double digit negative low in (x years?). I'm not sure when the last time these two have happened, but it feels like it's been at least a few years. I'm sure we'll hear about it on the local news.

Jan or Feb 2022, I think?

[Busguy2010]

Well, with this round over, what should we expect with the next system that will be rolling through Thursday evening?

NWS at 3.7" right now with more outside range for Saturday and Sunday. Rusty says it'll be much drier.

Guess the dew point is supposed to be about 10°, whereas it was in the 30s for this last one. So much drier air. Ratio is supposed to be higher so more snow for less moisture.

[Busguy2010]

Funny how there always seems to be payback with the weather. We just had our first year without a below 0 temp in 80 years and one of the warmest Decembers on record. Now this weekend we probably will see our first negative high temperature since (?) And our first double digit negative low in (x years?). I'm not sure when the last time these two have happened, but it feels like it's been at least a few years. I'm sure we'll hear about it on the local news.

Jan or Feb 2022, I think?

Surprisingly it was recent as 12/22/22 that the high was negative and the low was double digit negative. I checked January and February of 2022 and it didn't happen then, so I wonder when the last time was before December 2022. Unsurprisingly, the NWS website is not cooperating right now so I may never find out myself.

[Cermak]

Funny how there always seems to be payback with the weather. We just had our first year without a below 0 temp in 80 years and one of the warmest Decembers on record. Now this weekend we probably will see our first negative high temperature since (?) And our first double digit negative low in (x years?). I'm not sure when the last time these two have happened, but it feels like it's been at least a few years. I'm sure we'll hear about it on the local news.

February of 2021 was our last real hard punch of winter. We had temps of -20 and a very snowy February, this was the time when Texas had its record breaking low temps. My sister lives in Austin she was without power for several days and her neighbor across the street slipped on ice and broke his arm. They were also trapped in their neighborhood as the roads were all ice and undrivable . I’m wondering if this cold air we are getting will reach them again.

[Busguy2010]

Funny how there always seems to be payback with the weather. We just had our first year without a below 0 temp in 80 years and one of the warmest Decembers on record. Now this weekend we probably will see our first negative high temperature since (?) And our first double digit negative low in (x years?). I'm not sure when the last time these two have happened, but it feels like it's been at least a few years. I'm sure we'll hear about it on the local news.

February of 2021 was our last real hard punch of winter. We had temps of -20 and a very snowy February, this was the time when Texas had its record breaking low temps. My sister lives in Austin she was without power for several days and her neighbor across the street slipped on ice and broke his arm.

I'm a little surprised. With our climate trending warmer the past few years, I assumed it would have been a while. But I guess that's why they call it climate change, not global warming. It's just more unpredictable.

[stormchaser]

Based on the 12z ECMWF, probably another 6"+ type snowfall event for this coming Thursday/Friday. Using a 10:1 ratio, we'd probably be in the 3"-6" range but considering how cold it will be that day, snowfall ratio will be higher and probably closer to 15:1 or even 20:1 (or about double) so with the .57" of liquid equivalent depicted for our area, snowfall totals of 6"+ are definitely possible (with wind again).

That said, this is still a couple days away yet so things could quickly change. Don't be surprised if new winter storm watches are issued though.

Thankfully we are just brushed by this storm though as it turns into an ABSOLUTE monster to our southeast/east. Hopefully it doesn't change and trends back our way as the track isn't all that far away.

A 972mb low is no joke - equivalent to many category 2 hurricanes. If this happens Chicago is going to be a mess.

[Busguy2010]

I'm not super critical, but I just want to point out, considering what we were expecting vs. what we got, they did a pi$$ poor job clearing the roads.

[stormchaser]

As expected, a winter storm watch and various windchill advisories have been issued for much of eastern NE including Omaha. Officially expecting 4"-7" of snow Thursday afternoon/evening and Friday with 35mph winds but considering how light/fluffy this snow will be, it's going to blow all over.

More info:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... rm%20watch

Personally, I think they are underestimating snow totals and I think 6"-10" seems like a more realistic range for where the heaviest snow ends up but I guess we will see - especially once the 12z run comes in here shortly.

[thenewguy]

As expected, a winter storm watch and various windchill advisories have been issued for much of eastern NE including Omaha. Officially expecting 4"-7" of snow Thursday afternoon/evening and Friday with 35mph winds but considering how light/fluffy this snow will be, it's going to blow all over.

More info:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... rm%20watch

Personally, I think they are underestimating snow totals and I think 6"-10" seems like a more realistic range for where the heaviest snow ends up but I guess we will see - especially once the 12z run comes in here shortly.

maybe you've explained before but what's 12z, 00z mean? Just the time of day? or is it a countdown of sorts?

[stormchaser]

As expected, a winter storm watch and various windchill advisories have been issued for much of eastern NE including Omaha. Officially expecting 4"-7" of snow Thursday afternoon/evening and Friday with 35mph winds but considering how light/fluffy this snow will be, it's going to blow all over.

More info:
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... rm%20watch

Personally, I think they are underestimating snow totals and I think 6"-10" seems like a more realistic range for where the heaviest snow ends up but I guess we will see - especially once the 12z run comes in here shortly.

maybe you've explained before but what's 12z, 00z mean? Just the time of day? or is it a countdown of sorts?

Yep, time of day in "zulu time" (which is basically GMT and we are in GMT-6). Depending on if it's daylight savings time or not, 00z = 6 PM (or 7 PM), 12z = 6 AM (or 7 AM).

[stormchaser]

The 12z HRRR and 3km NAM are in now and both show Omaha getting somewhere in the 8"-11" of snowfall range using the "kuchera method" and/or factoring the likely snow to liquid ratio based on the temp and how cold it'll be.

Its worth noting that the HRRR short range model seems to be struggling with this storm system so for the time being, I'm relying more on what the 3km NAM is showing.

The following snow totals are likely pretty close (IMO) to what will actually happen (unless things change which of course they can). Unlike the other day where temps were too warm, this time it'll be cold while it's snowing so snow will be light/fluffy and accumulate quickly as a result.

12z 3km NAM snow totals - 8"+ of snow definitely seems possible in Omaha:

[skinzfan23]

What is the timeframe for the snow to start. I usually play basketball on thursdays from 6-8 and wonder if we should be ok at that time.

[stormchaser]

What is the timeframe for the snow to start. I usually play basketball on thursdays from 6-8 and wonder if we should be ok at that time.

Unfortunately right now it looks like it'll start sometime around 6-7 PM Thursday evening and quickly become heavy (based on the 12z 3km NAM forecast model anyway)

[Cermak]

What is the timeframe for the snow to start. I usually play basketball on thursdays from 6-8 and wonder if we should be ok at that time.

Unfortunately right now it looks like it'll start sometime around 6-7 PM Thursday evening and quickly become heavy (based on the 12z 3km NAM forecast model anyway)

These next 6 to 7 days look brutal. As rough a stretch as I can remember for a while, worse than anything last year. Probably the coldest since February of 2021 if these forecasts hold up.

[Renovator2559]

I am already getting an alert on a possible delay on my return flight to Omaha, as I am going through one of the flagged airports for winter advisory, which is Charlotte international.
Soon I'll be in home sweet home!

[stormchaser]

What is the timeframe for the snow to start. I usually play basketball on thursdays from 6-8 and wonder if we should be ok at that time.

Unfortunately right now it looks like it'll start sometime around 6-7 PM Thursday evening and quickly become heavy (based on the 12z 3km NAM forecast model anyway)

These next 6 to 7 days look brutal. As rough a stretch as I can remember for a while, worse than anything last year. Probably the coldest since February of 2021 if these forecasts hold up.

Yep, I don't miss these stretches after living most of my life in MN...

[Busguy2010]

I'm happy about the cold temps. Might finally be able to go ice fishing after this.

[stormchaser]

We should get a little light snow later today - unfortunately maybe around rush hour. Just a dusting is expected for accumulation.

Otherwise I'd expect the winter storm watch to be upgraded to a warning later today or early tomorrow morning.

[stormchaser]

As expected, Omaha has been upgraded to a winter storm warning.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... %20warning

[Brad]

As expected, Omaha has been upgraded to a winter storm warning.

And a windchill watch too.

[Louie]

After this we're really gonna be sitting on a lot of snow for awhile with how cold its going to be, too.

[stormchaser]

After this we're really gonna be sitting on a lot of snow for awhile with how cold its going to be, too.

Probably more than we've had for a while anyway and it's definitely not going anywhere anytime soon. On the 12z ECMWF, temps don't really warm up at all - maybe a day or 2 in the low to mid-20s at best in the next 10 days. Plus we will get a shot of subzero temps/arctic air this weekend and then looks like another one the following weekend (unfortunately).

[stormchaser]

Unfortunately terrible timing for a heavier band of snow to move across the metro..,

[Busguy2010]

Unfortunately terrible timing for a heavier band of snow to move across the metro..,

This ain't terrible. Tomorrow will be the same times 10.

[stormchaser]

Unfortunately terrible timing for a heavier band of snow to move across the metro..,

This ain't terrible. Tomorrow will be the same times 10.

I know, I meant the timing was terrible (it was during rush hour). Tomorrow night and Friday will be the main storm