2024 Weather Thread

[stormchaser]

The threat for strong/severe storms returns to our area tomorrow afternoon/evening with mostly a damaging wind/hail threat though an isolated tornado or 2 can't be ruled out. Otherwise some rain/thunder during the overnight tonight as well but everything overnight tonight should mostly remain below severe criteria in our area anyway (further west there is a risk though).

This is the current severe weather outlook for tomorrow from the SPC:

[Omaha Cowboy]

Some rain only Saturday would be great..

Thanks for the severe weather update stormchaser …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Louie]

Looks like we've got chances for scattered storms for a big chunk of the 10 day forecast. Any insight on why that's setting up and staying in place like that, stormchaser?

[stormchaser]

Looks like we've got chances for scattered storms for a big chunk of the 10 day forecast. Any insight on why that's setting up and staying in place like that, stormchaser?

Yep - some of it will be the scattered afternoon "summer time" storms that just pop up and barley move and then collapse on themselves almost as quickly as they form. However, there are at least a few days in there where severe weather certainly looks possible in parts of the area. This is especially true the first half of next week (especially Monday and again on Wednesday). However, timing, etc is tough to know yet so things can quickly change.

Its worth mentioning we are starting to get into the time of year where it gets too hot during the day time for storms (with a cap aloft on the atmosphere holding them back) and much of the activity will start occurring near or after sunset as the upper levels cool aloft. I'm not saying next week will be like that (though it might be) but certainly as we start getting into July/August - that's when we typically have the "ridge riding" damaging wind events.

[stormchaser]

Some rain only Saturday would be great..

Thanks for the severe weather update stormchaser …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

You're welcome!

[stormchaser]

With the College World Series going on tomorrow, I'm calling it now - there will be a tornado warning close enough to Omaha for them to postpone a game. Seems to happen every year and tomorrow does have some tornado potential in the local area.

You heard it here first.

[stormchaser]

All joking aside, there legitimately looks like there is at least some tornado potential in the local area this afternoon/evening in addition to large hail/damaging wind. The tornado potential will be highest within the first couple of hours of storm development as the initial storm mode will likely be supercellular before things grow upscale into more clusters of storms (though some tornado potential would remain regardless).

Here is the latest severe weather outlook from the SPC:



Tornado risk area based on the SPC:

[stormchaser]

Quick analysis of what I'm seeing setting up for severe weather and tornado potential in the area later today. Currently I'm thinking I'll target areas north/northwest of Omaha BUT there really are 2 main areas I'm watching and this risk could end up in or very close to Omaha itself as well so please keep on eye on things as there is a decent chance for a few tornadoes with these storms.

I'm leaning towards areas northwest of Omaha including Fremont up towards just south of Sioux City (roughly). This is due in large part to the depicted 700mb temps where the cap in this area appears to be slightly weaker and consequently will probably see the initial storm development which as I indicated above in a previous post, will probably be supercellular and pose the greatest tornado risk.

A second area is possible further south though too (probably south of Omaha but who knows yet) so I'm not 100% committed to any particular area yet.

Below is the visible satellite as of ~10:50 AM. I have outlined the state of Nebraska to make it easier to see. Otherwise on the map I have also pointed arrows at the outflow boundary from the overnight/morning convection that has moved through this area.

Where this outflow boundary lifts back north is the area to watch for possible severe/tornadic storms later today as it pushes off to the east/northeast into our area as the low level jet ramps up and storm initiation occurs. I have shaded the current location of this in red on the map (in central parts of NE). Later this afternoon this area will push into our area and potentially tornadic storms will develop (though they will be scattered so not everyone will see storms).

Please remain weather aware later this afternoon into this evening. It won't be a huge tornado outbreak but the threat appears to be fairly local and a few tornadoes will certainly be possible.

[stormchaser]

Yeah, finally decided on a target - heading southwest of Lincoln soon for storm initiation in the next few hours….

[Mr.Nuke]

[Busguy2010]

One heckuva thing going on up in Norfolk right now.

[stormchaser]

Yeah, the northern target verified and the southern target went HP. Oh well, such is chasing sometimes.

[stormchaser]

Pretty decent shelf cloud/outflow boundary moving across the metro currently. Should bring some showers/thunderstorms here this morning within the next hour or so (though no widespread severe stuff is expected).

Much of NE to Omaha's west and north is in a slight risk for today. Otherwise tomorrow, the SPC has our area in a slight risk - mostly for damaging wind/hail.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Crazy rain right now in the 129th and West Center area…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[skinzfan23]

I woke up this morning and saw the shelf cloud and thought, here we go again. But we haven't gotten any more than a few sprinkles in Bellevue.

[BRoss]

Is Wednesday really going to be a washout? Forecast is looking terrible right now.

[Busguy2010]

Is Wednesday really going to be a washout? Forecast is looking terrible right now.

Just looking at the graphical forecast, it looks like a good, good soaking. But the majority of it is currently forecast to fall after dark Tuesday night, and end mostly by the afternoon Wednesday. So Wednesday night might be salvageable. But it looks a LOT cooler than the last week or so. I'll take that break, because we all know the heat is coming.

[stormchaser]

Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening across the area as a cold front pushes across Nebraska.The main risk will be damaging wind and hail though and isolated tornado or 2 can't be ruled out (especially within the first hour or 2 of storm development).

The SPC has much of eastern NE (including Omaha/Lincoln) in a slight risk for today:

[stormchaser]

Is Wednesday really going to be a washout? Forecast is looking terrible right now.

Just looking at the graphical forecast, it looks like a good, good soaking. But the majority of it is currently forecast to fall after dark Tuesday night, and end mostly by the afternoon Wednesday. So Wednesday night might be salvageable. But it looks a LOT cooler than the last week or so. I'll take that break, because we all know the heat is coming.

I echo this though timing is always tough tbh. The 06z HRRR shows precip moving out on Wednesday by late morning or early afternoon. However, there is an additional area of precip that develops during the evening in central parts of NE and may or may not impact us (you can see what I mean toward the end of the animation below):

Simulated radar loop from now through midnight Wednesday night. It shows the severe storms later today, then the heavy rain and it clearing out before an additional wave of precip develops in central NE. Of course don't expect this to verify EXACTLY as shown since it's just one single run of one single forecast model:

[stormchaser]

Storm development is starting to occur out in central parts of NE along the front (out near Grand Island). I'm assuming a weather watch will be issued for much of the area in the not-too-distant future.

[Busguy2010]

WOWT also has them starting earlier, maybe around 4-6 and done by 11. A different story, but one I prefer rather than after dark. Also they weren't saying much about tomorrow, other than off and on showers during the morning. My day off, might still be able to get some comfortable grilling in. Temps in the 70's will be perfect for that or a fire. Fingers crossed about the rain.

[Busguy2010]

After watching both news outlets I follow, and the NWS, I firmly believe this evening and tonight are going to be a complete washout. Should be a remarkably heavy rain.

[Brad]

Storm development is starting to occur out in central parts of NE along the front (out near Grand Island). I'm assuming a weather watch will be issued for much of the area in the not-too-distant future.

Getting a little more shower activity now along along from Sioux Falls to Grand Island and down towards the Kansas border.

Also one lone shower in western Cass county. Looks like the model you posted earlier over did that line a little bit.

[Mr.Nuke]

Storm development is starting to occur out in central parts of NE along the front (out near Grand Island). I'm assuming a weather watch will be issued for much of the area in the not-too-distant future.

SPC is going with 80% chance of issuance, which typically means one is forthcoming soon.

[stormchaser]

Storm development is starting to occur out in central parts of NE along the front (out near Grand Island). I'm assuming a weather watch will be issued for much of the area in the not-too-distant future.

SPC is going with 80% chance of issuance, which typically means one is forthcoming soon.

Nice, there certainly appears to be at least "some" tornado potential based on the mesoanalysis. The surface winds are more southwesterly than what would be ideal but the low level jet is strong with plenty of low level wind shear and if there ends up being some embedded supercells along the line (which seems possible), a tornado threat does exist. Just to stress, this isn't a huge threat but something for people to be aware of anyway.

[Mr.Nuke]

Thunderstorm watch issued until 8 p.m for most of Eastern Nebraska and Northwestern Iowa.

[stormchaser]

A severe thunderstorm watch will probably soon be issued for parts of the area (west/northwest of Omaha) for mostly a damaging wind/hail threat...

More info: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1359.html

[stormchaser]

...and of course as I was typing out the above, they issued the watch

More info: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0445.html

[Brad]

^^^More rain for people that don't need it...

By Wednesday 6/26, Omaha will be only 0.4" below Moderate Flood Stage.

Flood.JPG

[Brad]

I started a new thread for 2024 Missouri River Flooding

viewtopic.php?t=24886

[stormchaser]

There is a chance for severe weather in the Omaha area both today and tomorrow with the SPC including us in a slight risk for both days.

However, with it getting so hot today there will likely be a cap on the atmosphere much of the day but it's possible that tonight as things cool off aloft, a few storms may get going (though short range models don't show anything currently but they aren't always accurate). If something does develop, large hail and damaging wind will be the main threat for today/tonight. Tomorrow there is a low end risk for a few tornadoes though large hail and damaging wind will again be the main threat with anything that develops.

Risk area for today:


Risk area for tomorrow:

[Brad]

Hopefully not much rain if they do break the cap.

[skinzfan23]

Hopefully not much rain if they do break the cap.

If it weren't for the river flooding, I would say that we could use the rain, b/c its been a few days maybe even a week with no significant rainfall and with the hot temps we could use it. (On a side-note, this is the best my lawn has ever looked at this point in the season and I have only turned the sprinklers on once so far)

[Brad]

Hopefully not much rain if they do break the cap.

If it weren't for the river flooding, I would say that we could use the rain, b/c its been a few days maybe even a week with no significant rainfall and with the hot temps we could use it. (On a side-note, this is the best my lawn has ever looked at this point in the season and I have only turned the sprinklers on once so far)

Yes, we need the rain, but only 0.5" to 1.0" at a time. Sometimes when these late night caps break, we get dumped on with all the humidity in the air. Just don't need that.

I turned on my sprinkler last night for the first real time of the year. I fired it up and tested it earlier in the spring and had it do a cycle or two, and then turned it back off.

[skinzfan23]

I turned on my sprinkler last night for the first real time of the year. I fired it up and tested it earlier in the spring and had it do a cycle or two, and then turned it back off.

Thats exactly what I did. Tested it earlier, but just ran part of it yesterday (mainly the front yard that gets sun all day).

[Busguy2010]

Even though May was about 6" above normal precipitation, and the drought monitor currently has us not in a drought, for the three-year, we were consistently behind by about 15" since 2020 (I gave up keeping track because it was depressing and negative), so in my estimation, we are still 7-9" behind, so we should still hope for normal or above normal rainfall.

As we stand now, we have about 2" left to go for June. But yeah, Definitely agree it'd be better to have a few rain events amount to that than all in one.

[Louie]

Even though May was about 6" above normal precipitation, and the drought monitor currently has us not in a drought, for the three-year, we were consistently behind by about 15" since 2020 (I gave up keeping track because it was depressing and negative), so in my estimation, we are still 7-9" behind, so we should still hope for normal or above normal rainfall.

As we stand now, we have about 2" left to go for June. But yeah, Definitely agree it'd be better to have a few rain events amount to that than all in one.

At what point is it not feasible to rely on historical data points when the drought periods are lasting longer and happening more frequently than ever?

[BRoss]

I just hit 100⁰ around my house. Dew point is starting to drop, but still really high. Was over 78⁰ just a bit ago. Down to 74⁰ now. Feels like 113⁰

[stormchaser]

I just hit 100⁰ around my house. Dew point is starting to drop, but still really high. Was over 78⁰ just a bit ago. Down to 74⁰ now. Feels like 113⁰

Brrrr...

[Busguy2010]

At what point is it not feasible to rely on historical data points when the drought periods are lasting longer and happening more frequently than ever?

At some point the abnormal data becomes part of what constitutes "normal" data, so not really any way to tell. I just assume the historical average will continue to go down. The NWS data has already gone down across the board in the last few years. I don't recall exactly but historical precipitation for every month went down anywhere from .1" to .5" since 2020-ish. So the new normal in the future won't look as bad because the bar is set lower, but for those of us who remember when the precipitation used to be higher, that .1 to .5 inches is a pretty drastic change in just a few years.