**This is not a forecast - this is just based on one single run of the 12z ECMWF and will likely change at least some. See my previous post on the page before this one for additional info since this post started at the top of a new page **
Depicted snow totals for this storm - shows around 8" worth in Omaha but keep in mind surface temps are warm so much of the snow will melt as it falls so it's likely these are overdone a fair amount - even if the storm plays out exactly as depicted here:
Animation showing the storm move up into our area, then the low gets cut off as the precip changes to snow from west to east and then the low wobbles to the south/southeast:
Depicted wind speeds at the 925 mb level (so not at the surface - but this helps give a rough idea on these models what to expect for wind gusts in my experience since this model doesn't show them). It shows a large area of 50+ mph winds so I would expect gusts to be somewhere in that range:
Thanks, something to keep an eye on, looks like we will finally get a hard freeze next week. It seems like we are in a rainier and possibly soon snowier pattern now after a dry and mild Sep/Oct.
I have 3 banana trees in my yard (just a dumb little side project I've done for the past 5 years) and they are still alive coming in to mid November. It’s wild that I haven’t cut them and winterized them yet.
It's worth mentioning the GFS has been keeping the snow north of us into eastern SD/southern MN and maybe as far south as northern IA for next week.
Will have to watch model trends in the coming days to see if things start aligning better but chances are fairly high somewhere in the region (maybe north of us, maybe here) is going to get a decent amount of snow with wind out of this storm....unless things completely change of course.
nativeomahan wrote: Wed Nov 13, 2024 6:08 pm
I’m still picking tomatoes. Not quite sure but I think this is the latest my tomatoes have survived without being covered.
I concurr. I even accidentally left a cantaloupe vine out there and it's a ok.
As many probably know by now, models have trended warmer with the storm next week and looks mostly like a rain producer now (with maybe a little snow mixed in). Regardless, unless things change it shouldn't be a big snow event for our area - but still some much needed precip.
swinquest wrote: Fri Nov 15, 2024 9:25 am
Never ceases to amaze me as to how many people freak out when they hear snow being mentioned a week ahead!!
No freaking out here (just to clarify) - just relaying what the model trends are showing and my personal opinion based on my forecasting experience. That said, I understand what I think you're saying...some people will go and stock up on milk and bread when a TON of uncertainty still exists which is just silly.
It snow big deal... even if it did snow 8", that's not going to shut everything down. I personally love snow, so I hope it does. These past few years that it's held off to snow has been a departure from the norm. I've been a fan of these days topping out in the 50's, and especially those relaxing rainy days. Looks like one more of those on tap for Monday, then the |expletive| really hits the fan as we get our first winter-like weather Wednesday and Thursday. Temps likely failingnto reach 40
swinquest wrote: Fri Nov 15, 2024 9:25 am
Never ceases to amaze me as to how many people freak out when they hear snow being mentioned a week ahead!!
No freaking out here (just to clarify) - just relaying what the model trends are showing and my personal opinion based on my forecasting experience. That said, I understand what I think you're saying...some people will go and stock up on milk and bread when a TON of uncertainty still exists which is just silly.
Understand....just in my work, a lot of people are already starting to complain about certain things needing to be done before it snows, getting "stocked" up on stuff, asking what businesses are going to do when it snows next week, etc.
swinquest wrote: Fri Nov 15, 2024 9:25 am
Never ceases to amaze me as to how many people freak out when they hear snow being mentioned a week ahead!!
No freaking out here (just to clarify) - just relaying what the model trends are showing and my personal opinion based on my forecasting experience. That said, I understand what I think you're saying...some people will go and stock up on milk and bread when a TON of uncertainty still exists which is just silly.
Understand....just in my work, a lot of people are already starting to complain about certain things needing to be done before it snows, getting "stocked" up on stuff, asking what businesses are going to do when it snows next week, etc.
Yeah, that's what happens with people unfortunately. They don't put any effort into actually listening and/or ensuring they have updated info from reliable sources. They hear 1 forecast from who knows where thats often a week or more out and assume that forecast is 100% set in stone. Then they get mad when that isn't what ends up happening and act like it's "weather people's" fault or that "weather people are clueless". You can't help people that aren't willing to help themselves.
It's how/why complete nonsense and misinformation is so easily spread online. It's EXTREMELY frustrating to people who forecast because the information is there and easily accessible but it's still too much effort for some.
I heard that next week's blizzard will transition to a bomb typhoon and cause a great plains haboob. I'm actually posting from Costco right now, buying extra TP and vodka just in case.
almighty_tuna wrote: Fri Nov 15, 2024 12:10 pm
I heard that next week's blizzard will transition to a bomb typhoon and cause a great plains haboob. I'm actually posting from Costco right now, buying extra TP and vodka just in case.
Lol - going to go buy milk and booze ASAP!! Thanks for the warning!!
nativeomahan wrote: Wed Nov 13, 2024 6:08 pm
I’m still picking tomatoes. Not quite sure but I think this is the latest my tomatoes have survived without being covered.
A friend of mine told me this very same thing a couple of days ago..
With all the rain we have received the past several weeks, believe it or not, my yard will get one more mow. Latest I’ve ever done one in 24 years of home ownership…
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Sat Nov 16, 2024 12:28 pm
With all the rain we have received the past several weeks, believe it or not, my yard will get one more mow.
Mowing is also a nice way to mulch up some leaves.
I just mowed today and probably will still one more time. For me this is pretty typical, and the last time mow it a little shorter as it should be for the winter.
Should be a fairly substantial rain event in the area tomorrow with most areas over an inch of rain and some possibly over 2.
This obviously would have equated to well over a foot of snow in the area had it been colder. Could be a precursor of things to come though in the coming months.
Based on the long range, the pattern looks to transition to more of a zonal/northwest flow in our area (which basically means relatively cold but not much for moisture for the time being after this storm).
Noticed a bunch of people mowing yesterday. Yesterday was a pretty nice day for mid -November in Omaha. I’m still going to try and mow one more time if the weather allows.
Last edited by Cermak on Mon Nov 18, 2024 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
Don't be surprised if a few strong/severe storms happen in parts of the area later this afternoon into this evening (especially areas south/southeast of Omaha) - including a low end risk for isolated tornadoes.
The SPC currently has our area in a 2% tornado risk and with a strong low pressure basically moving right over our area, I wouldn't be shocked to see a brief spin up (though odds are obviously low).
Busguy2010 wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 2:25 pm
Today looks and feels a lot like that April 27th when we had the West Dodge tornado.
Yeah, not enough surface based instability (SBCAPE) though due to the amount of forcing and consequently precip in the area. Otherwise this probably would be a pretty decent tornado event IF there was an opportunity for things to clear off so the lower levels of the atmosphere could destabilize enough.
That said, it won't take much to cause a storm to spin (if one can get going and sustain itself) so things will need to be watched closely - unfortunately after dark in our area if anything happens. "Probably" what will happen is a few storms will try to fire but with the lack of instability in the lower levels and the crazy amounts of wind shear will cause them to struggle to sustain themselves and get "sheared apart" so never really become organized enough to do much. It'll be interesting like normal though.
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Sat Nov 16, 2024 12:28 pm
With all the rain we have received the past several weeks, believe it or not, my yard will get one more mow.
Mowing is also a nice way to mulch up some leaves.
skinzfan23 wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 7:58 pm
I just mowed and fertilized. Depending on temps I will have to mow at least once if not 2 more times
I'll mow again this weekend for sure. It's still growing a lot and I still have some leaves falling. Looks like its finally going to get cold next week so that should slow down the growth. That said, last winter I mowed at least once each winter month Dec, Jan, and Feb to clean up leaves that blow in.
Cermak wrote: Thu Nov 21, 2024 4:25 pm
We had a hard freeze last night. First one of the fall, somewhat late. Down to 25 this morning.
Sure did. This cool down period from Tuesday on actually ended up being on the warmer side, surprise, surprise. But the beginning of next week looks like some ACTUAL cold weather with forecast highs less than 40. But take it with a grain of salt, that was the initial forecast for this week, but we will have made it, or nearly made it past 50 every day minus today.
It’s been an amzingly beautiful autumn in this region, with more sunshine than I can ever remember starting in mid August and still continuing. The two or three dreary rainy days we had recently typically happen a lot in later October and into the early winter, but we’ve had almost none of that weather so far.
I did hear on the national news that this autumn is running over 7 degrees F above average nationally, which puts it in first place as the warmest autumn in recorded history.
I hate the warm fall. Watching the Steelers Browns game and the big snow storm they had the pleasure of celebrating a win in Cleveland made me yearn for that weather here. It was beautiful. At least I got a taste from afar.
Now we're talkin! Looks like the end of the week we'll be hard pressed to surpass freezing, and have a shot at dipping into the single digits a couple nights.
Now, don't get me wrong, it's not going to be comfortable, but I like to experience variation. If I must endure heat index, give me that windchill now. It's fair. I love to hunker down, start a fire, cozy up next to the wood stove. Can't have that aesthetic without bitter cold.
Some steady snow will move into the Omaha metro from the northwest over the next hour or so. Wouldn’t be shocked to see a dusting or minor accumulation in some areas….especially for just north of Omaha.
Looks like temps are eventually supposed to warm back up by this coming weekend with highs in the low 50s. However, as I've said many other times on here, when it warms up this time of year, it should serve as an early warning sign that the pattern has changed and a more favorable pattern is setting up for a strong storm system.
That doesn't mean it'll 100% happen and/or that it'll happen here specifically - but the POTENTIAL exists next week and things will need to be watched closely. Right now nothing is depicted for our area but that can always quickly change.
