2026 Weather Thread

[stormchaser]

Odds are "starting" to increase that our area could be affected by a strong winter storm late next week into the weekend (probably Friday/Saturday January 9th and 10th) including the potential for a blizzard in our area.

To be clear, we are still way too far out to know details or if this will even happen but the 00z ECMWF (which tends to be more frequently reliable) shows what would be a blizzard hitting our area (if and to what extent will depend on many things including exact storm track). The GFS also shows a storm in this time frame but it doesn't deepen as quickly and consequently wouldn't probably be a blizzard - but possibly impactful snow regardless.

Since there is at least some model agreement, the next thing to watch will be to see if that model agreement continues/improves on subsequent runs over the next few days. If the GFS starts showing a potential blizzard and the ECMWF continues the trend, then odds will increase further.

Just a early heads up that we "might" have something on the horizon...

[stormchaser]

12z models today continue to show the potential storm but have tracked it north far enough that Omaha would mostly be missed again. Still way too far out to have much, if any confidence so it’ll be something worth watching in the coming days.

[stormchaser]

Thankfully it continues to look like the potential storm for this coming weekend is going to end up mostly just rain with maybe a little light snow. The storm now isn't depicted to deepen/get strong until its into the Ohio Valley so unless things change, this will mostly be a non-event for us.

[nebugeater]

Thankfully it continues to look like the potential storm for this coming weekend is going to end up mostly just rain with maybe a little light snow. The storm now isn't depicted to deepen/get strong until its into the Ohio Valley so unless things change, this will mostly be a non-event for us.

So, 12 -18 Inches???

[stormchaser]

Thankfully it continues to look like the potential storm for this coming weekend is going to end up mostly just rain with maybe a little light snow. The storm now isn't depicted to deepen/get strong until its into the Ohio Valley so unless things change, this will mostly be a non-event for us.

So, 12 -18 Inches???

Lol, probably

[Busguy2010]

The fog is incredible right now. Step outside and its like you're stepping foot on another planet.

[Brad]

The fog is incredible right now. Step outside and its like you're stepping foot on another planet.

It was super foggy when I took the trash down to the curb last night before bed and was surprised it was all gone this morning when I got up.

[skinzfan23]

Same here. I have been driving for prob around 25+ years and never have driven in fog so thick as last night. It was especially bad on Harlan Lewis Rd and Hwy 34 in Bellevue. I was only going 25-30 and couldn't see more than I traffic lane marking in front of the car.

[skinzfan23]

60 at our house in Bellevue right now. With tomorrow's forecast of 60, it looks nice at least for these 2 days.

My joke with my wife, with my birthday being on Jan 20, many years it is warm before, but never fails Jan 20 is almost always cold.

[BRoss]

It's amazing out! Made it to 66 according to my weather station.

[Busguy2010]

Yeah, I'll admit, it felt great. Very out of place though. I don't wish for days like this in winter when I know darn well summer isn't going to be cutting me any breaks. I like cold weather in winter, save the warmth for the time of year its meant for.

[BRoss]

Yeah, I'll admit, it felt great. Very out of place though. I don't wish for days like this in winter when I know darn well summer isn't going to be cutting me any breaks. I like cold weather in winter, save the warmth for the time of year its meant for.

This past late spring & summer actually had a lot of days way below normal.

[nativeomahan]

Nice to see another high temperature record fall, especially in January!

[Busguy2010]

Yeah, I'll admit, it felt great. Very out of place though. I don't wish for days like this in winter when I know darn well summer isn't going to be cutting me any breaks. I like cold weather in winter, save the warmth for the time of year its meant for.

This past late spring & summer actually had a lot of days way below normal.

Yeah, I'll give you that last summer was surprisingly reasonable. I looked back 5 years and loosely say that there have been more June, July, August that have been above average than not.

Either way, when the average is 85-88, It doesn’t matter to me if theres a few days slightly below that. Doesn't make much difference to me.

It was a beautiful day... You'd just think it was... April, not January. Just weird.

[stormchaser]

Based on rainfall projections with this storm (many places depicted to see around an inch of rain locally based on the 12z HRRR), we are dodging a bullet with this storm. If things were cold enough for all snow, we'd be talking much of the area getting a foot of snow and even more if the temps were in the mid to low 20s as precip fell.

[skinzfan23]

Thanks for the update...as of now are we still expecting an inch or so of snow?

[stormchaser]

Thanks for the update...as of now are we still expecting an inch or so of snow?

No problem, yeah - if even that. Shouldn't be a big deal either way.

[Cermak]

Thanks for the update...as of now are we still expecting an inch or so of snow?

No problem, yeah - if even that. Shouldn't be a big deal either way.

I wouldn’t mind a 1/2 inch or so of snow. We are getting a good amount of rain today.

[Brad]

I wouldn’t mind a 1/2 inch or so of snow. We are getting a good amount of rain today.

There are still two computer models showing 1.0" to 1.4" of snow here tonight, so there is still a shot.

We got a half inch of rain so far in the 90th and Center area.

[stormchaser]

I wouldn’t mind a 1/2 inch or so of snow. We are getting a good amount of rain today.

There are still two computer models showing 1.0" to 1.4" of snow here tonight, so there is still a shot.

We got a half inch of rain so far in the 90th and Center area.

Yeah, I don't think they're doing a very good job of accounting for the fact the ground is wet from the rain and with the temp close to freezing, it'll just melt as it falls. Guess we'll see though, areas north and east of Omaha probably have a better chance.

[Brad]

I wouldn’t mind a 1/2 inch or so of snow. We are getting a good amount of rain today.

There are still two computer models showing 1.0" to 1.4" of snow here tonight, so there is still a shot.

We got a half inch of rain so far in the 90th and Center area.

Yeah, I don't think they're doing a very good job of accounting for the fact the ground is wet from the rain and with the temp close to freezing, it'll just melt as it falls. Guess we'll see though, areas north and east of Omaha probably have a better chance.

Usually, but we have had a few senecios over the years where the snow rate is heavy enough, it overcomes the ground temps fairly quicky.

[stormchaser]

I wouldn’t mind a 1/2 inch or so of snow. We are getting a good amount of rain today.

There are still two computer models showing 1.0" to 1.4" of snow here tonight, so there is still a shot.

We got a half inch of rain so far in the 90th and Center area.

Yeah, I don't think they're doing a very good job of accounting for the fact the ground is wet from the rain and with the temp close to freezing, it'll just melt as it falls. Guess we'll see though, areas north and east of Omaha probably have a better chance.

Usually, but we have had a few senecios over the years where the snow rate is heavy enough, it overcomes the ground temps fairly quicky.

Yep, should be interesting!

Pretty easy to see currently where a boundary is and temps behind are cooling enough for precip to change over (the green/yellow is rain and blue is snow).

Of course this is aloft so it may not be snow by the time it gets to the ground yet.

[nebugeater]

Drive from Gretna to Fremont @ 5 AM was no issue and normal conditions this morning

[stormchaser]

Drive from Gretna to Fremont @ 5 AM was no issue and normal conditions this morning

Yeah, no real issues here in CB either. A few slick spots on side streets but main roads are 100% fine.

[Brad]

Drive from Gretna to Fremont @ 5 AM was no issue and normal conditions this morning

Yeah, no real issues here in CB either. A few slick spots on side streets but main roads are 100% fine.

When I went to bed around 11pm, the rain was winding down, but the air temp was still 34.

We got 0.7" yesterday in my neighborhood. Using the old school 10:1 method, that would have been 7 inches of snow. Since it was on the warm side, it would have probably been a little less, but still would have been a good snowfall.

Stormchaser, is there a website you can plug in the rain and temps and get an approximate snow depth using the Kuchara formula? Or is it more complex than just the rain and air temp?

[Brad]

Ahead of last year, but still below average for snow:

[stormchaser]

Stormchaser, is there a website you can plug in the rain and temps and get an approximate snow depth using the Kuchara formula? Or is it more complex than just the rain and air temp?

I used to have a website that had a table where you could calculate things from one of the NWS office in the northeast, but it's no longer available.

This site has a calculator you can use. I'm not 100% sure if it uses the Kuchera formula but I believe it does.

https://www.omnicalculator.com/other/rain-to-snow

[Brad]

Stormchaser, is there a website you can plug in the rain and temps and get an approximate snow depth using the Kuchara formula? Or is it more complex than just the rain and air temp?

I used to have a website that had a table where you could calculate things from one of the NWS office in the northeast, but it's no longer available.

This site has a calculator you can use. I'm not 100% sure if it uses the Kuchera formula but I believe it does.

https://www.omnicalculator.com/other/rain-to-snow

Cool, thanks! I'll check it out.

[stormchaser]

Not completely relevant yet obviously (considering it's January), but if I was a betting man, I'd be expecting an active tornado year this year somewhere in the southern/central part of the United States with an increased risk for violent tornadoes.

Long story short, we are currently in a "La Nina" weather pattern but it's currently starting to collapse. As we head into spring/summer, it is expected to start transitioning to an "El Nino" weather pattern.

When a La Niña event ends in the spring and begins transitioning toward El Niño, statistical analysis shows a significantly increased probability of tornado outbreaks in the Central/Southern Plains.

The Mechanism: During this transition, the atmosphere often retains the high-instability characteristics of La Niña (which allows for warm, moist air to surge northward), while the developing El Niño begins to energize the subtropical jet stream. This combination creates a "sweet spot" of high instability and strong wind shear—the two key ingredients for violent tornadoes.

Does it mean a record-breaking season nationally? Not necessarily. A steady La Niña is often associated with higher total numbers of tornadoes nationwide. The transition phase is more strongly correlated with concentrated, violent outbreaks in the central United States.

The correlation extends to hail and wind threats as well. The same "Trans-Niño" jet stream patterns that fuel tornadoes also favor large hail events in the Central/Southern Plains during this specific phase change.

Just a VERY early heads up that this year has the potential to be "one of those years".

[Erik]

Not completely relevant yet obviously (considering it's January), but if I was a betting man, I'd be expecting an active tornado year this year somewhere in the southern/central part of the United States with an increased risk for violent tornadoes.

Long story short, we are currently in a "La Nina" weather pattern but it's currently starting to collapse. As we head into spring/summer, it is expected to start transitioning to an "El Nino" weather pattern.

When a La Niña event ends in the spring and begins transitioning toward El Niño, statistical analysis shows a significantly increased probability of tornado outbreaks in the Central/Southern Plains.

The Mechanism: During this transition, the atmosphere often retains the high-instability characteristics of La Niña (which allows for warm, moist air to surge northward), while the developing El Niño begins to energize the subtropical jet stream. This combination creates a "sweet spot" of high instability and strong wind shear—the two key ingredients for violent tornadoes.

Does it mean a record-breaking season nationally? Not necessarily. A steady La Niña is often associated with higher total numbers of tornadoes nationwide. The transition phase is more strongly correlated with concentrated, violent outbreaks in the central United States.

The correlation extends to hail and wind threats as well. The same "Trans-Niño" jet stream patterns that fuel tornadoes also favor large hail events in the Central/Southern Plains during this specific phase change.

Just a VERY early heads up that this year has the potential to be "one of those years".

Sounds like fun! I just hope it all stays in the fields

[stormchaser]

Not completely relevant yet obviously (considering it's January), but if I was a betting man, I'd be expecting an active tornado year this year somewhere in the southern/central part of the United States with an increased risk for violent tornadoes.

Long story short, we are currently in a "La Nina" weather pattern but it's currently starting to collapse. As we head into spring/summer, it is expected to start transitioning to an "El Nino" weather pattern.

When a La Niña event ends in the spring and begins transitioning toward El Niño, statistical analysis shows a significantly increased probability of tornado outbreaks in the Central/Southern Plains.

The Mechanism: During this transition, the atmosphere often retains the high-instability characteristics of La Niña (which allows for warm, moist air to surge northward), while the developing El Niño begins to energize the subtropical jet stream. This combination creates a "sweet spot" of high instability and strong wind shear—the two key ingredients for violent tornadoes.

Does it mean a record-breaking season nationally? Not necessarily. A steady La Niña is often associated with higher total numbers of tornadoes nationwide. The transition phase is more strongly correlated with concentrated, violent outbreaks in the central United States.

The correlation extends to hail and wind threats as well. The same "Trans-Niño" jet stream patterns that fuel tornadoes also favor large hail events in the Central/Southern Plains during this specific phase change.

Just a VERY early heads up that this year has the potential to be "one of those years".

Sounds like fun! I just hope it all stays in the fields

I agree. Never want to see structures getting hit - especially a terrible/sickening feeling when seeing one going through a town and knowing you're about to go into search and rescue mode.

Of course there is no guarantee this scenario will play out and things may progress faster/slower than anticipated (for example) which would likely change this scenario some. Just mentioning since the start of the process and expected timing of things is aligning with historically what happens in the years when we see a higher rate of violent outbreaks. (2011 which was a particularly bad year, the super outbreak in 1974, etc).

[Busguy2010]

Its nuts that we're talking a 30+ drop from the high today and the high tomorrow, and thats still just cutting it back to normal... 32 isn't even cold

[Busguy2010]

Oh look, it "snowed". This is probably the stingiest start to a winter I think I've ever experienced.

[almighty_tuna]

The squall that blew through about 15min ago was quite something to watch!

[Brad]

The squall that blew through about 15min ago was quite something to watch!

Sure was! Here is a city cam video of it.

[Busguy2010]

I called it mildly entertaining. Gone in a flash.

[Cermak]

We’ve been getting a little more wintery type weather the last few days. Still hardly any snow so far just about 5 inches for the season. But that could change. Howling winds outside this evening with gust up to 40+mph.

[stormchaser]

Based on the 12z HRRR, somewhere in the 1"-3" of snow range tomorrow overnight into Friday appears possible currently. Won't be a huge storm for us locally but with the cold air in place, snow will accumulate faster than with other storms. Might be enough to cause some travel issues Saturday morning.

[nativeomahan]

I thought the snow was supposed to hold off until late Friday night, after midnight. Has that changed now?

[Brad]

I thought the snow was supposed to hold off until late Friday night, after midnight. Has that changed now?

I believe it’s one of those senecios where the snow needs the to overcome the dry air. The sooner it overcomes the dry air, the sooner it starts and the more we get.