HR Paperstacks wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 5:59 pm
By the way, my weather station said we ended up hitting 76 yesterday. I was worried it wouldn't actually hit 70 since we've been under the forecast lately.
The official high ended up being 71, and I don't doubt anywhere around here might have recorded a record high for the day. Anyway, I know I'm in the minority on this, but I don't want it to be that warm in November. Definitely, there is a time and place for that type of stuff, but November is not it. I will be happy to have highs struggling to reach 60.
HR Paperstacks wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 5:59 pm
By the way, my weather station said we ended up hitting 76 yesterday. I was worried it wouldn't actually hit 70 since we've been under the forecast lately.
The official high ended up being 71, and I don't doubt anywhere around here might have recorded a record high for the day. Anyway, I know I'm in the minority on this, but I don't want it to be that warm in November. Definitely, there is a time and place for that type of stuff, but November is not it. I will be happy to have highs struggling to reach 60.
Unfortunately I worked through lunch and didn’t get out to enjoy the warmth, and it was already dark by the time I got home. I love an occasional 70 degree day whenever we can get them!
He said "They are some big, ugly red brick buildings" ...and then they were gone.
The ECMWF is starting to hint at a pattern change to more of a southwest flow (more favorable for snow in our area) occurring sometime around Thanksgiving with a potential significant winter storm shortly there-after for the middle part of the Country into the weekend directly after Thanksgiving.
GFS is also showing a pattern change/potential strong storm but timing is a few days later than the ECMWF.
It’s a long way out but it’s worth mentioning since many obviously travel in this time frame. To be clear, confidence is very low at this point since run to run consistency and good model agreement has not yet been observed but it’s something to be aware of and to keep an eye on in the coming days.
Early indications are starting to show “potential” anyway. We will see if some run to run consistency occurs or if model agreement increases. If it does, my confidence will increase. It might just as easily go “poof” and disappear too though.
HR Paperstacks wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 5:59 pm
By the way, my weather station said we ended up hitting 76 yesterday. I was worried it wouldn't actually hit 70 since we've been under the forecast lately.
The official high ended up being 71, and I don't doubt anywhere around here might have recorded a record high for the day. Anyway, I know I'm in the minority on this, but I don't want it to be that warm in November. Definitely, there is a time and place for that type of stuff, but November is not it. I will be happy to have highs struggling to reach 60.
Unfortunately I worked through lunch and didn’t get out to enjoy the warmth, and it was already dark by the time I got home. I love an occasional 70 degree day whenever we can get them!
Sorry to hear..but even after sunset, it was still a nice evening..
Our fellow forum member Busguy would be a party of one..the only person stranded on an Island..who doesn’t enjoy an occasional series of 70 plus degree days in November in Nebraska lol…
stormchaser wrote: Thu Nov 18, 2021 6:14 am
The ECMWF is starting to hint at a pattern change to more of a southwest flow (more favorable for snow in our area) occurring sometime around Thanksgiving with a potential significant winter storm shortly there-after for the middle part of the Country into the weekend directly after Thanksgiving.
Early indications are starting to show “potential” anyway. We will see if some run to run consistency occurs or if model agreement increases. If it does, my confidence will increase. It might just as easily go “poof” and disappear too though.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed for this going “poof”…
Today is gonna be my type of day! I like it cold, and today will fit that bill, barely reaching 40. A bit on the windy side, which I don't like, but sunny and cold. I'll take it.
It actually turned out to be a okay afternoon.. highs did get into the low 40’s (which Is chilly for this time of year) but there was no wind.. So it was a fairly pleasant late afternoon to sit outside on your deck/patio, wearing a hoodie, and watching the sun set..
Most all of us would prefer temps at least 10-15 degrees warmer..but overall- not a bad day weather wise. We take what we can get now, before the weather turns winter miserable in the next few weeks…
It seems like it used to not be uncommon in the 80s, 90s, 2000s, and early 2010s for us to get walloped with a big snowstorm right after Thanksgiving. We’ll have to wait and see.
He said "They are some big, ugly red brick buildings" ...and then they were gone.
Looks like the potential storm for after Thanksgiving/next weekend that I posted a few days ago about has gone "poof" - well kind of anyway.
A strong high pressure is depicted to move south/southeast into and through our area and in doing so is pushing the potential storm way south to near the Gulf of Mexico and is preventing it from turning our way. As a result, the storm never really gets going and really would be a non-event. Things can of course still change but right now anyway, nothing really noteworthy on the horizon for our area...
Looking like a very good chance that we will finish November with no snow accumulation at all in Omaha.
It's a long way out so take it with a grain of salt as things can quickly change but the long-range GFS is currently showing things remaining uneventful/quiet all the way through the first week of December (which is the farthest out it goes).
Definitely a slow start to Winter in Omaha so far at least...
stormchaser wrote: Sun Nov 21, 2021 3:16 pm
Looking like a very good chance that we will finish November with no snow accumulation at all in Omaha.
Definitely a slow start to Winter in Omaha so far at least...
I'm not all that surprised by that. I can't recall what winters were like in the early 2000's or 1990's, but I know as of the last decade or so, winter weather typically has held off well into December, then unloads in January and February. It does seem odd how the warm weather is hanging on. I think we challenged two or three record highs in the last month or so. This month has generally been well above average, aside from the sprinkled in well-below-average day or two.
We’ve had a trend lately of mild November’s and December’s then it finally gets cold towards mid to late January and then brutally cold and snowy February’s. Two of the last three February’s have been very cold and snowy.
I guess in that respect, November and December are my favorite months if that trend holds. Nice and cool, and if the snow holds off like it has been in recent years, you can still reasonably do any kind of outdoor activity, without breaking a sweat to boot!
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:49 am
I caught Randby’s 7 day forecast-
After a cold Thanksgiving Day, temps rebound Friday/Saturday to the mid-upper 50’s..62 on Monday and 60 on Wednesday December 1st..
Fan-freaking-tastic weather …
Ciao..LiO…Peace
Caught that too. Might even mow again here in a few days! Mowed on Sunday and still took about 1/4" off not to mention all the leaves I mulched. Have a few more leaves that blew in that I would like to mulch up this weekend.
(Mermers out side of mouth): Its not supposed to be that warm this late guys...
Look, I get it. Even I won't stand outside, cross my arms and disappointly proclaim "This SUCKS" on a 60 degree day in November or December, but I'm certainly not excited about it. It is more concerning than anything how above average this fall has been, and it's not something I'd beg to get used to. We're talking 10-15+ degrees above normal for the bulk of the last two weeks and upcoming forecast. It just aint right. If I wanted mild falls and winters, I'd move to Oklahoma or Texas. That said, today ought to be perfect Thanksgiving weather. Perfect day to stay inside and cook. Would be a great day to play football too, if not for the wind. 34 for a high today, and that is a trend down. Brrr.
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:49 am
I caught Randby’s 7 day forecast-
After a cold Thanksgiving Day, temps rebound Friday/Saturday to the mid-upper 50’s..62 on Monday and 60 on Wednesday December 1st..
Fan-freaking-tastic weather …
Ciao..LiO…Peace
Caught that too. Might even mow again here in a few days! Mowed on Sunday and still took about 1/4" off not to mention all the leaves I mulched. Have a few more leaves that blew in that I would like to mulch up this weekend.
I took care of that last weekend- 10 bags of leaves, one last mow and even had the gutters swept..but will probably get some finishing touches on yard work completed too- perfect weather to do it..
Once we get past the cold weather today, we’ll really get to enjoy beautiful late fall weather into December. Like I’ve said, we take what we can get until the unfortunate freezing cold of winter sets in…
Around December 4th/5th is our next chance for snow in the area. There is good model agreement and run to run consistency between the GFS and ECMWF models (and have been now for several runs) so odds of a storm (possibly significant) are relatively high considering how far out it is.
That being said, lots of uncertainty exists (like normal this far out). Both models currently show Omaha itself not getting snow with it missing us to the north and east. BUT models have trended more toward Omaha for several runs now with the latest runs just barely missing us. This needs to be watched closely as it has the potential of being a significant winter storm for some.
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:36 pm
In the meantime, I saw Bill Randby’s 7 day forecast last night- looks like great late Fall weather through December 4th..
The high today could hit 70.. FanFreakinTastic! …
Ciao..LiO…Peace
Yep - definitely no complaints here. I also wouldn't be shocked if we get missed yet again and still end up without any accumulating snow anytime soon (based on how things have trended the last couple of months anyway)...
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:36 pm
In the meantime, I saw Bill Randby’s 7 day forecast last night- looks like great late Fall weather through December 4th..
The high today could hit 70.. FanFreakinTastic! …
Ciao..LiO…Peace
Yep - definitely no complaints here. I also wouldn't be shocked if we get missed yet again and still end up without any accumulating snow anytime soon (based on how things have trended the last couple of months anyway)...
Right on!..
You’ll hear no complaints from me if we dodge yet another happenstance …
Today and tomorrow the weather is going to be pretty amazing for this time of year. Highs near 70 today with little or no wind, possibly 75 tomorrow with little to no wind.
Still looks like the potential for snow next Wednesday. However, models have been going back and forth in showing Omaha being hit. Until there is better model agreement on the track of the potential storm, who knows what to expect. If we do get snow, at this point it looks like it would be pretty minor in our area (though obviously, that can change).
stormchaser wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:49 pm
Today and tomorrow the weather is going to be pretty amazing for this time of year. Highs near 70 today with little or no wind, possibly 75 tomorrow with little to no wind.
If Omaha hits 75 tomorrow, it will smash the record. It’s pretty darn rare (but darn welcome) to see mid 70’s temps in Omaha in December…
According to the NWS, today was 65. They predict tomorrow between 69 and 71, which either way would break the record. KETV was saying 74 last time I saw. That's messed up. I'm not complaining about 70s in general, but I'll complain about 70s in December. Not normal, a bit concerning.
Busguy2010 wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 12:22 am
According to the NWS, today was 65. They predict tomorrow between 69 and 71, which either way would break the record. KETV was saying 74 last time I saw. That's messed up. I'm not complaining about 70s in general, but I'll complain about 70s in December. Not normal, a bit concerning.
Oh come on..
Enjoy the nice, unseasonably warm December weather..
Life is TOO SHORT to stress out about great weather …
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 12:27 am
Oh come on..
Enjoy the nice, unseasonably warm December weather..
Life is TOO SHORT to stress out about great weather …
Ciao..LiO…Peace
As you know, I really prefer temperatures below 70, below 60, even 50 more than I prefer anything above 70. So I'm definitely miffed there's been little relief from warmer than normal temperatures so far this fall, especially when the normal high is around 40 right now. I'll agree with you all day that its nice the snow has held off thus far, but this 30+ degree warmer than normal weather in December is far from desirable IMO and is actually concerning. At the very least, I hope this isn't something that continues much longer this year, or shows up again next year or any year. Its supposed to be cold right now, and its not, and yes, I'm messed up about it.
well, anyway, thankfully after tomorrow and sort of Friday, it returns to a more seasonable, reasonable pattern.
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 12:27 am
Oh come on..
Enjoy the nice, unseasonably warm December weather..
Life is TOO SHORT to stress out about great weather …
Ciao..LiO…Peace
but this 30+ degree warmer than normal weather in December is far from desirable IMO and is actually concerning. At the very least, I hope this isn't something that continues much longer this year, or shows up again next year or any year. Its supposed to be cold right now, and its not, and yes, I'm messed up about it.
well, anyway, thankfully after tomorrow and sort of Friday, it returns to a more seasonable, reasonable pattern.
Lol. Well, if you’re messed up about something like this, I’m going to guess you either currently take hypertension medication; or will very soon be a candidate..
In any case, I’m certain the cold, crappy, frozen winter weather you crave is right around the corner…
I just want normal weather, or close to it. This past summer was almost all above normal, as I don't like. So I'm looking for the weather to finally turn toward my liking. It is holding off quite long. Next week looks great to me with highs only a little bit above normal, sunny, and no snow. Although we can really use some rain. Next week is my stuff. Highs around 40 and sunny. I could easily accept that type of weather every day for the rest of my life.
Busguy2010 wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:15 am
I just want normal weather, or close to it. This past summer was almost all above normal, as I don't like. So I'm looking for the weather to finally turn toward my liking. It is holding off quite long. Next week looks great to me with highs only a little bit above normal, sunny, and no snow. Although we can really use some rain. Next week is my stuff. Highs around 40 and sunny. I could easily accept that type of weather every day for the rest of my life.
I don’t share your preference for colder weather, but if this unusually warm weather has already become the new norm due to human activities, such as burning fossil fuels or deforestation for example, I agree there is cause for serious concern.
He said "They are some big, ugly red brick buildings" ...and then they were gone.
GetUrban wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:31 am
I don’t share your preference for colder weather, but if this unusually warm weather has already become the new norm due to human activities, such as burning fossil fuels or deforestation for example, I agree there is cause for serious concern.
I would agree..but there really isn’t any overwhelming evidence this is, with any consistency, the case..If we had our more likely miserable ice storm, or 3-5 inches of snow by now- I highly doubt anyone in our crowd would be pulling out the “environmental concern card”..
No offense-
But geez, let’s just enjoy our 70-75 degree December day tomorrow and not worry about the sky falling..
Bill Randby is calling tomorrow a potential top 10 day of the year. That’s good enough for me..
Yes, you enjoy your couple days. But you have to admit, as much as you might enjoy it, it isn't normal. And if the recent pattern repeats (warmer November and December with lower than normal snow or precipitation, followed by very, ahem, pronounced and compressed January, Febrary, and March), I'd have to say I'd prefer a longer, and less volatile and compressed winter season. Fewer peaks and valleys if you will...
At any rate, mother nature will do what she will do regardless of what you and I want, so no point in bickering any further about it. My point was there was plenty, and I mean plenty of time to enjoy 70+ degrees already this year, and minus the last couple seasons, I don't ever recall warm weather holding on this late, and I don't like it. I'm so ready for cold weather. If I preferred this kind of weather, I'd move south. I hope it doesn't continue like this year after year.
With that, I look forward to next week's type of weather and I hope it holds on after that. And I can't wait to see our first winter storm, and I definitely hope for a white Christmas.
Looks like our accumulating snow chances have all but disappeared over the next week or 2. This time it isn't an issue of storm track. Instead, the storms are mostly moisture-starved until east of here when they finally tap into the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, mostly just lots of wind and cold air with maybe a few flurries should be expected (unless things change)...
GetUrban wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:31 am
I don’t share your preference for colder weather, but if this unusually warm weather has already become the new norm due to human activities, such as burning fossil fuels or deforestation for example, I agree there is cause for serious concern.
I would agree..but there really isn’t any overwhelming evidence this is, with any consistency, the case..If we had our more likely miserable ice storm, or 3-5 inches of snow by now- I highly doubt anyone in our crowd would be pulling out the “environmental concern card”..
No offense-
But geez, let’s just enjoy our 70-75 degree December day tomorrow and not worry about the sky falling..
Bill Randby is calling tomorrow a potential top 10 day of the year. That’s good enough for me..
…
Ciao..LiO…Peace
I guess it depends on how you define “overwhelming, consistent evidence”, but you can’t deny there have been many more extreme weather events all over the world such as heavy rains resulting in flooding or unusual winter storms happening in places like Texas and the Deep South, and severe droughts resulting in fires of magnitude unseen over the last 2000 years. Arctic sea ice and glaciers are also disappearing at an alarming rate. The warm weather we’re having now is a pleasant surprise that I will surely enjoy, but I’m not going to let that blind me to the mounting evidence that something unusual is happening which climate scientists agree may be caused by humankind. Weather has always been highly variable thing throughout history and only time will tell if this is an anomaly or the new norm caused by human activity.
Last edited by GetUrban on Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
He said "They are some big, ugly red brick buildings" ...and then they were gone.
stormchaser wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 2:07 pm
Looks like our accumulating snow chances have all but disappeared over the next week or 2.
Excellent news and update! It makes winter’s miserable cold easier to take when there’s no frozen precipitation on the ground..Regarding the probability of a “White Christmas” for Omaha- there is only a 33% chance of that happening- through 2018, only 42 times out of the past 126 years snow was on the ground in Omaha for Christmas..
Anyway, back to the now- today and tomorrow look to be absolutely wonderful weather days..and the weekend looks pretty fine as well. I’d be happy with a Oct/Nov/early Dec like this for Omaha every year..but alas, fat chance of that consistently happening..but like I’ve stated previously, we’ll take what we can get and enjoy this year …
GetUrban wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:31 am
I don’t share your preference for colder weather, but if this unusually warm weather has already become the new norm due to human activities, such as burning fossil fuels or deforestation for example, I agree there is cause for serious concern.
I would agree..but there really isn’t any overwhelming evidence this is, with any consistency, the case..If we had our more likely miserable ice storm, or 3-5 inches of snow by now- I highly doubt anyone in our crowd would be pulling out the “environmental concern card”..
No offense-
But geez, let’s just enjoy our 70-75 degree December day tomorrow and not worry about the sky falling..
Bill Randby is calling tomorrow a potential top 10 day of the year. That’s good enough for me..
…
Ciao..LiO…Peace
I guess it depends on how you define “overwhelming, consistent evidence”, but you can’t deny there have been many more extreme weather events all over the world such as heavy rains resulting in flooding or unusual winter storms happening in places like Texas and the Deep South, and severe droughts resulting in fires of magnitude unseen over the last 2000 years. The warm weather we’re having now is a pleasant surprise that I will surely enjoy, but I’m not going to let that blind me to the mounting evidence that something unusual is happening which climate scientists agree may be caused by humankind. Weather has always been highly variable thing throughout history and only time will tell if this is an anomaly or the new norm caused by human activity.
All true..
But also all very unusual- hence not really any “overwhelming, Consistent evidence”.. I subscribe to a couple of channels on YouTube that always post updates on extreme and unusual weather..Also, there seems to be lately, more unusual flying object sightings (UFO’s)..
I’m certainly not suggesting you (or anyone) turn a blind eye to this- I’m as aware and concerned about these extremes as anyone.. But I only really mean to say I question how all of that, has an evidentiary impact on what Bill Randby will be calling a top 10 weather day for 2021 today in Omaha…
…
for this going “poof”…
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