2024 Weather Thread

[almighty_tuna]

It's a yearly occurrence that one part of the state has a severe thunderstorm warning while another has a winter storm warning. Just part of living in NE.

[stormchaser]

It's a yearly occurrence that one part of the state has a severe thunderstorm warning while another has a winter storm warning. Just part of living in NE.

Yep - really just part of living in the northern plains (it was the same way in MN). I've chased multiple times where I've seen a severe and sometimes tornadic storm and then as I traveled west back home, it started snowing (sometimes in the next county over to the west of where I saw the storm). The temp drops can be CRAZY this time of year behind the fronts.

[Busguy2010]

^ I would welcome that. It'll happen most if not every year. Get the afternoon temp up to the upper 70's on the front side, have a low of 25 the next morning. Me likey. Anything that spells Fall or Winter.

[Busguy2010]

I HOPE this is summer's last whimper. 84ish forecast on Tuesday, which is a whopping 25 degrees above normal. I long for it to actually, definitively be fall. No more of this fake fall bs. And I need it to rain. I want to go camping, I want it to be crisp and cold, I want to be able to sit around a fire and cook a meal and just enjoy the cold air flowing through my nasal passages. I want to wake up with frost on the ground, and hastily boil a pot of water for coffee because it's cold. I dunno, it just feels like in recent years, I've lost something. It just doesn't get cold on time like it used to. I'm beginning to wonder how long I'll have to wait. Used to be any decent camping would be out of the question by mid October- November 1st. Now I'm looking at maybe camping mid November to finally get the conditions I'm yearning.

[stormchaser]

Looks like we will at least get SOME rain/thunder tomorrow night into Wednesday - most places probably a quarter of an inch or less with heavier stuff from parts of KS into far southeast NE and then into central parts of IA.

Then hopefully another chance this coming weekend too.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Looks like we will at least get SOME rain/thunder tomorrow night into Wednesday - most places probably a quarter of an inch or less with heavier stuff from parts of KS into far southeast NE and then into central parts of IA.

Then hopefully another chance this coming weekend too.

Definitely could use another dose of rain before it freezes again..

Fingers crossed …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[GetUrban]

Looks like we will at least get SOME rain/thunder tomorrow night into Wednesday - most places probably a quarter of an inch or less with heavier stuff from parts of KS into far southeast NE and then into central parts of IA.

Then hopefully another chance this coming weekend too.

Definitely could use another dose of rain before it freezes again..

Fingers crossed …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

So True, Our evergreens need it so bad, Some are losing their needles.

[stormchaser]

At least some good news - the depicted band of heavier rainfall has shifted far enough west to include the Omaha area. There is also potential for strong/severe storms tomorrow but unless things change, it should mostly remain south and east of Omaha (with these storms developing around noon tomorrow).

Otherwise, looking like a fairly prolonged rain event for the local area with some places now depicted to see an inch or more of rainfall (with the majority in the .5 inches to 1 inch range). Fingers crossed it'll happen.

The chance for rain this coming weekend has also increased. Too far out yet though to feel confident in that one.

[Louie]

Been awhile since the forecast looked this promising for precipitation.

[Busguy2010]

NWS has us at about 1.25". Tomorrow should be a washout, and I'm all for it! Plus it shouldn't even get to 60. Now that sounds like a true fall day.

[Busguy2010]

Also looks like an abrupt change. Strong south winds keep the temperature above 70 most of the night, until about 6am when the front moves through and drops temps down to the upper 50s and keeps them there all day.

[Busguy2010]

I'd say this is probably "the one" as far as the front that comes through and closes the door for warm weather. Not a day in the forecast after today is set to break the low 60's with most in the 50's.

[stormchaser]

Based on the 12z HRRR, a few notable changes for tonight and tomorrow.

This run is showing less in the way of precip tonight/overnight into tomorrow morning so don't be surprised if it "feels" like we missed out. However, during the mid to late morning hours, heavier rain and scattered strong/severe storms will develop in the area.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them shift the severe risk west some and include "possibly" Omaha/Lincoln for tomorrow (though odds are still higher to our south and east). The main threat would be wind/hail with any of the stronger storms.

Otherwise there will probably be more than 1 round of rain/storms tomorrow from late morning into the late afternoon/early evening.

For those of us hoping for some heavier rain, it's going to be a tough forecast. Yes, some places will see an inch or more of rain in our area. However, these areas will likely be pretty narrow and the cutoff is going to be sharp on the west side so really it's going to depend on exactly where the storms develop in the morning tomorrow.

These are the depicted rain totals based on the 12z HRRR. As you can see, the heavy rain band that moves through Omaha looks very narrow with a sharp cutoff nearby (it drops off to only .2 near Freemont - if this run verifies as shown). Much of IA will get more widespread/substantial rainfall though.

[stormchaser]

A pretty robust severe weather event is expected today south/southeast of Omaha including far southeastern NE where large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be possible.

There will probably be a few hail producers in our area as well (so don't be surprised if that happens). Otherwise we should "hopefully" get some much needed rain today.

[Busguy2010]

I woke up in the middle of the night to the weirdest downpour I think I ever heard. It rained cats and dogs, and I mean CATS AND DOGS. For all of... 5 seconds. And then it was just over for what I'd guess was the rest of the night. I had my window open and I never 100% fell asleep after that.

[stormchaser]

Unfortunately what I was talking about the other day seems like will verify where much of Omaha itself will miss out on the heavier rain totals (with the exception being the east/southeast side of the metro).

The majority of town will end up under .3 with an inch plus rain totals possible in the Plattsmouth/Bellevue area (and another swath northwest of town).

Hard to complain at this point but still unfortunate….unless things change of course but that’s how it looks currently.

[skinzfan23]

Here about 1 mi sw of Offutt it rained really hard for about 10 min but looking at radar, it looks like the majority of the rain is right along the river and east.

[stormchaser]

Here about 1 mi sw of Offutt it rained really hard for about 10 min but looking at radar, it looks like the majority of the rain is right along the river and east.

Yeah, there is still plenty that will come through yet but the heavier stuff will likely stay east and south of Omaha from here on out...

Radar as of about noon. That area of heavy rain down by Beatrice will likely stay south of Omaha (except for maybe Bellevue/Plattsmouth as it moves northeast). There will be on and off steady rain in the local area but the heavier stuff is probably about done in Omaha itself anyway.

[Cermak]

A pretty good soaking today in SW Omaha, the most significant rain in probably 2 months. Some much needed moisture. Will help settle the dust and reduce fire danger.

[stormchaser]

Based on radar estimates, most of Omaha ended up in the .5 or .6 inch rain between last night and today with 1"+ of rain around the Bellvue/Plattsmouth area.

Of course we aren't 100% done but still, pretty decent anyway - just wish one of those heavier bands ended up over my neck of the woods but oh well.

[Brad]

Based on radar estimates, most of Omaha ended up in the .5 or .6 inch rain between last night and today with 1"+ of rain around the Bellvue/Plattsmouth area.

Of course we aren't 100% done but still, pretty decent anyway - just wish one of those heavier bands ended up over my neck of the woods but oh well.

We got 0.5 to 0.68 around the 90th and Center area, depending on which rain gangue you look at. Mine is broken.

[Busguy2010]

Today was decent. Not as great as could be. But I think there'll be a more compounding effect coming up, which will be more beneficial. Tomorrow and Friday look to be dry, but after that expect shades of today from Saturday on.

[stormchaser]

Today was decent. Not as great as could be. But I think there'll be a more compounding effect coming up, which will be more beneficial. Tomorrow and Friday look to be dry, but after that expect shades of today from Saturday on.

Certainly a more active weather pattern finally. Even some flakes of snow not all that far away from us this morning (in parts of southwest MN/far northern IA).

Radar as of ~7:10 AM showing some snow to our north:



Several rounds of rain/storms coming up this weekend, including a risk of severe weather for parts of the area on Sunday (depicted currently to be west of the Omaha metro but something to keep an eye on regardless).

Currently SPC outlook for Sunday:

[skinzfan23]

[Louie]

Damn, that is wild lol

[Busguy2010]

Im surprised it's held off this long. I was doing yard work expecting it to be raining by game time. But I'm glad to see the relative humidity is gonna be 100% the next day or two. I definitely noted during that stretch of dry weather, it was/still is nearly impossible to be properly hydrated. I been drinking about a gallon a day all my adult life and it's just not feasible to drink more, and the environment just sucks the moisture out of you. My skins been DRY, and that's something you expect much farther into winter, let alone late summer/early fall. Feel like SpongeBob when he got out of water.

[Busguy2010]

Goooolllyyy, i hope none of yall have the displeasure of being surrounded by neighbors who don't pick up their dog sheiser... Damn, this rain is nice, but it sure came with an unexpected consequence. Rehydrated and resmellified poo. I opened my windows to listen to the rain, but it's just too nasty.

[skinzfan23]

I know there is more rain to come in the next few days but I don’t think we’re going to get anywhere near the amount they predicted through Tuesday. I’m pretty sure they were saying one and a half to 3 inches of rain for the Omaha area and at least so far I’ve only gotten .4”.

[stormchaser]

IMO, people in central/eastern NE need to pay attention to weather later today.

IF things can clear off some (which is a big if currently), severe weather would certainly be possible this afternoon/this evening in parts of the area. Even a low end tornado risk along a warm front lifting into the area (again, IMO and not based on official forecast info).

This threat will mostly impact areas along and south of I-80 IF it actually happens.

Obviously the threat is VERY conditional, but if you see any breaks in the cloud cover into this afternoon, it should serve as a warning sign that potential has increased.

Based on visible satellite trends, there already “appears” to be some breaks in the cloud cover/fog pushing into far southern NE and adjacent parts of KS. Most models I’ve seen have depicted cloud cover all day.

If you’ll remember back in April when Lincoln/Omaha were hit by tornadoes, it was cloudy/foggy/dizzly all the way into early afternoon that day. I’m not saying to expect the same scenario BUT it’s something to keep an eye on. This setup is obviously different but the components for severe weather are in place so the threat is certainly non-zero IMO.

[Busguy2010]

I know there is no more rain to come in the next few days but I don’t think we’re going to get anywhere near the amount they predicted through Tuesday. I’m pretty sure they were saying one and a half to 3 inches of rain for the Omaha area and at least so far I’ve only gotten .4”.

It's definitely underperformed so far. They did say it was going to be a sharp cutoff, but that was supposed to be more to our west. Like the platte river was supposed to be that boundary, but it ended up being more like the Missouri river.

FWIW, the NWS is still forecasting about a half an inch the next couple days. I hope we get all of that, but I'm doubtful after the past day has underperformed.

[BRoss]

Obviously the threat is VERY conditional, but if you see any breaks in the cloud cover into this afternoon, it should serve as a warning sign that potential has increased.

There was a fairly big break just a bit ago and my weather station reported it getting up to 70.7. But it's back down to 68 now.

[Brad]

Obviously the threat is VERY conditional, but if you see any breaks in the cloud cover into this afternoon, it should serve as a warning sign that potential has increased.

There was a fairly big break just a bit ago and my weather station reported it getting up to 70.7. But it's back down to 68 now.

It definitely feels like a warm spring day with the humidity.

[stormchaser]

Obviously the threat is VERY conditional, but if you see any breaks in the cloud cover into this afternoon, it should serve as a warning sign that potential has increased.

There was a fairly big break just a bit ago and my weather station reported it getting up to 70.7. But it's back down to 68 now.

It definitely feels like a warm spring day with the humidity.

Yeah, doesn’t look like enough forcing to get things going until after 8 or 9. Still some isolated potential but mostly west of Omaha (too much cloud cover again).

[Brad]

I've always been a believer in "Good Lawns start in the Fall" and this year is been one of the best falls for lawns in a long time. My lawn is darker green and thicker than its ever been, and I usually have a nice green lawn. I aeriated and overseeded back in mid September and then watered the seed fairly well. Then the recent rains combined with warm sunny afternoons and cool nights have sent my lawn in to level I haven't seen in the 10+ years we have lived here. Its fantastic.

[almighty_tuna]

I aeriated and overseeded back in mid September and then watered the seed fairly well. Then the recent rains combined with warm sunny afternoons and cool nights have sent my lawn in to level I haven't seen in the 10+ years we have lived here. Its fantastic.

I fertilized in November before our streak of wet weather. That is the peak of my lawn care for 2024. Maybe next year!

[skinzfan23]

I fertilized in mid-sept right before we had a rainstorm, unfortunately that wasn't much rain and until recent rains my yard didn't look as good as it usually does. I only patched a few bare spots, and now I wish I would have overseeded the whole yard, because those spots look amazing with the new grass. Overall, these recent moisture was huge though and sorely needed.

[thenewguy]

Not really weather, but did anyone see how HUGE the moon was tonight at moonset? I e never in my life seen it that big

[stormchaser]

Looks like chances are increasing we will see our first flakes of snow sometime next week.

Both long range models are picking up on a low pressure moving through to our north/northwest of us and then getting cutoff and wobbling around back to the south bringing with it some snow to parts of the area.

It's impossible to know timing and/or to what extent yet in our area (especially since it's a cutoff low - they tend to be difficult to forecast) but considering both models are picking up on the potential, odds are fairly high this scenario will happen. It's just a matter of figuring out the specifics which won't be known until we get closer.

[stormchaser]

Not really weather, but did anyone see how HUGE the moon was tonight at moonset? I e never in my life seen it that big

I didn't - sounds cool though

[stormchaser]

The last couple of runs of the ECMWF are concerning for much of the local area and are now showing what could potentially end up being a blizzard for much of NE next week - including the Omaha area (though the heaviest snow is currently depicted to fall north of us, we would still get enough for a potential blizzard).

Obviously there is still a TON of uncertainty but right now, precip would change from rain to snow Tuesday overnight into Wednesday and last into Thursday night/possibly early Friday. The duration of this event is due in part to the fact this low pressure gets cut off from the jet stream and doesn't really move very much for a little while - but this will also make the forecast challenging too.

In addition to snow potential, wind gusts are depicted to possibly meet blizzard criteria over a large portion of the area during this time frame. It's impossible to know "yet" but the trends are certainly concerning and something that will need to be watched closely.

Might be a good time to make sure that snow blower is ready to go (if you have one). There could be some areas of Nebraska that could see in excess of a foot of snow (but that's impossible to forecast - especially "where" this far out).