Official- 2020 Omaha CSA 1 million+

[skinzfan23]

Good growth, hopefully these next few years can really take off with all the positive things that the City of Omaha has done to enhance the area in which we live (downtown parks, steelhouse, new library, mutual HQ, CPP and of course the streetcar)

I always mention Cedar Rapids, IA b/c my wife is from there and I lived there for a year, but no surprise that they aren't growing much...I am so glad that we chose to move back to the Omaha area....so much more going on between project announcements, the streetcar, concerts, sporting events....the list goes on and on. Add in the fact that CR is very much a blue collar town, there isn't much to do there besides going to the bars.

At any rate, what a great time to be part of the Omaha metro and I absolutely love the direction this city and area are headed.

[nativeomahan]

I was reading that the top 3 fastest growing Metros (in terms of real numbers, not percentages) were Atlanta (about 68,000 more people added in the 12 month period), Houston (139,000 more people) and the winner was Dallas-Ft Worth with 152,000 more people added in one year. Eight of the top 10 fastest growing metros are in Texas.
Metro Dallas-Ft. Worth now tops 8,100,000 people, and Houston has about 7.5 million.
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/202 ... utType=amp

[Garrett]

Adding 7,000 is good to see after two years of about 3,500 in growth. Hopefully the slow post pandemic growth is finally ebbing.

[Garrett]

Metro population estimates are in!:

Metro | 2023 pop | % growth over '22:
Omaha, 983,969, 0.78%
Lincoln 344,387 0.68%
Grand Island 76,479 0.21%

Des Moines. 737,164, 1.08%
Quad Cities 379,441 0.00%
Cedar Rapids 275,668 0.01%
Iowa City 180,088 0.35%
Sioux City 144,402 0.46%
Ames 125,156 0.26%

Kansas City 2,221,343 0.57%
Sioux Falls 304,555 1.83%

US metro areas as a whole grew 0.53%

My favorite stat is that Iowa City has finally slowed down. Sioux City even grew faster.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... -2023.html

Interesting to see despite Dallas growing the fastest, Dallas County actually lost people, and more than last year while cities that lost a lot of people during the pandemic are seeing their shrinkage slow.

[TitosBuritoBarn]

Metro population estimates are in!:

Metro | 2023 pop | % growth over '22:
Omaha, 983,969, 0.78%
Lincoln 344,387 0.68%
Grand Island 76,479 0.21%

Des Moines. 737,164, 1.08%
Quad Cities 379,441 0.00%
Cedar Rapids 275,668 0.01%
Iowa City 180,088 0.35%
Sioux City 144,402 0.46%
Ames 125,156 0.26%

Kansas City 2,221,343 0.57%
Sioux Falls 304,555 1.83%

US metro areas as a whole grew 0.53%

My favorite stat is that Iowa City has finally slowed down. Sioux City even grew faster.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... -2023.html

Interesting to see despite Dallas growing the fastest, Dallas County actually lost people, and more than last year while cities that lost a lot of people during the pandemic are seeing their shrinkage slow.

This is my biggest gripe about Dallas. Fourth largest metro area, massive population growth, yet the urban core is just not where people are interested in being, at least not at the scale you'd expect for a metro with 8 million people. I think part of it is that the execution of creating civic assets as well as the development of interesting neighborhoods and spaces that foster local culture and identity just isn't that great there, at least not for a metro area with the population that DFW has. And so

[TitosBuritoBarn]

I feel like I would strongly dislike living in each of the top 10 fastest growing metros in annual percentage growth, yet would really enjoy living in any of the top 10 declining counties in annual numeric population decline.

[riceweb]

This is my biggest gripe about Dallas. Fourth largest metro area, massive population growth, yet the urban core is just not where people are interested in being, at least not at the scale you'd expect for a metro with 8 million people. I think part of it is that the execution of creating civic assets as well as the development of interesting neighborhoods and spaces that foster local culture and identity just isn't that great there, at least not for a metro area with the population that DFW has. And so

It's not specific to Dallas, it's more of an overreaction to COVID that has caused a massive amount of building in the suburbs. The national trend might be reversing: https://sfstandard.com/2024/03/14/popul ... 23-census/

[Omaha Cowboy]

The Omaha CSA grew by more folks over the last year than Des Moines (and the metro growth additions were nearly identical as well).. Possibly signaling a growth spurt trend for Omaha with it’s many job additions etc..

Omaha CSA-
• 2022: 1,013,668

• 2023: 1,021,156 (+7,488)

Des Moines CSA-
• 2022: 910,923

• 2023: 917,964 (+7,041)…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

The Omaha CSA grew by more folks over the last year than Des Moines (and the metro growth additions were nearly identical as well).. Possibly signaling a growth spurt trend for Omaha with it’s many job additions etc..

Omaha CSA-
• 2022: 1,013,668

• 2023: 1,021,156 (+7,488)

Des Moines CSA-
• 2022: 910,923

• 2023: 917,964 (+7,041)…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

That’s good to see!

Like most believe - this is only the beginning of what seems like will be a pretty solid growth spurt.

[Cermak]

Sioux Falls May pass Lincoln in the not to distant future. And Dallas is knocking on Chicago’s door. Omahas on a good growth pattern right now.

[Omaha Cowboy]

The Omaha CSA grew by more folks over the last year than Des Moines (and the metro growth additions were nearly identical as well).. Possibly signaling a growth spurt trend for Omaha with it’s many job additions etc..

Omaha CSA-
• 2022: 1,013,668

• 2023: 1,021,156 (+7,488)

Des Moines CSA-
• 2022: 910,923

• 2023: 917,964 (+7,041)…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

That’s good to see!

Like most believe - this is only the beginning of what seems like will be a pretty solid growth spurt.

Absolutely.. And looking forward already for next years 2024 Census MSA/CSA estimates…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Athomsfere]

We really need to get LNK into the CSA if DSM get's to claim Ames...

[Louie]

We really need to get LNK into the CSA if DSM get's to claim Ames...

Agreed

[Omaha Cowboy]

We really need to get LNK into the CSA if DSM get's to claim Ames...

Agreed

I have always felt the same.. Even more so now than 15-20 years ago..

A combined Omaha-Lincoln CSA (1.4 Million) would push Omaha past Memphis TN as the 41st largest CSA. Just behind Louisville KY and Oklahoma City in CSA population. The frustrating thing is, Omaha-Lincoln actually “functions” as at 1.4 million population CSA.. But the “boys” in Washington have their own “measurables” and agenda imo..

Oh well…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Garrett]

CSAs are based on commuting patterns. If the numbers aren’t there, they aren’t there, no agenda to it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Omaha Cowboy]

The US Census Bureau is located in Washington DC. Believe what you want..

But there is always an “agenda” touching anything that comes out of the nations capital..This includes the US Census Bureau..

But we’ll agree to disagree on this all day, and it’s not worth a ton of time jumping into that rabbit hole..in this discussion forum at least…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Garrett]

What they’re looking for is commuting patterns though. Hard numbers. There aren’t agendas to that. According to the 2020 5 year ACS data I’ve found, only about 3,000 people from Douglas county commute to Lancaster county for work, a bit higher than the 2015 numbers of around 2,300. To hit a CSA threshold that number needs to be 15% of the total workforce. It’s just statistical analysis based on the American community survey that people fill out. It was controversial a few years ago when the census bureau separated Washington and Baltimore into different MSAs because commuting flows fell below 25%, but that was what the statistics said.

[Omaha Cowboy]

The % threshold is flawed. And has been for a number of years imo. 15%? Post pandemic, this needs to be re evaluated.. Many now WFH. Before the pandemic, the fairly large company I work for had a number of folks who lived in Lincoln who commuted to Omaha daily..

Of course, that stopped in 2020. But still today, we have folks who live in Lincoln who commute to Omaha for work at least in a hybrid capacity..

Omaha and Lincoln today functions as a combined CSA..whether the boys in Washington want to recognize that or not. Of course they don’t based on their % formula. This entire commute % nonsense needs to be recalibrated based on the reality of the world today. Not what it was 15-20 years ago..

Will that happen? Not likely. Does 15% commute percentage tell the actual story of Omaha-Lincoln connectivity..in reality? He!l no it doesn’t..

Throw that outdated commute % out and look at the functional reality. Thats what they should do. But- That’s not what the US Census department will likely ever do. Even in your lifetime..and that’s pathetic..and LAZY..

I hope I’m wrong.. But I’m not holding my breath…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Athomsfere]

The % threshold is flawed. And has been for a number of years imo.

I mean, its their sandbox, their term to describe something, and their rules. If it doesn't the tell the story we want it to means very little IMO. As Garrett said: It's a stat that doesn't meet their treshold.

We can always just get more creative too. The "Greater Omaha Area" or 50 miles from downtown is often used and pulls in Lincoln. We could even come up with a fun new name for the region: "The Nebraska that doesn't suck" for example.

[Omaha Cowboy]

The % threshold is flawed. And has been for a number of years imo.

I mean, it’s their sandbox, their term to describe something, and their rules. If it doesn't the tell the story we want it to means very little IMO.

LOL. I don’t lose any sleep over it.. Believe me.. But you brought it up a couple posts back regarding combining Omaha-Lincoln together..

In any case..

What’s flawed is flawed. That does not change..and like I said earlier, likely won’t in your lifetime either…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Athomsfere]

The % threshold is flawed. And has been for a number of years imo.

I mean, it’s their sandbox, their term to describe something, and their rules. If it doesn't the tell the story we want it to means very little IMO.

LOL. I don’t lose any sleep over it.. Believe me.. But you brought it up a couple posts back regarding combining Omaha-Lincoln together..

In any case..

What’s flawed is flawed. That does not change..and like I said earlier, likely won’t in your lifetime either…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Yes. I'd love to see us get them counted with us. I know our commute patterns don't come close to justifying it... Eventually though we'll get there one way or the other. Much like DFW.

[Garrett]

The % threshold is flawed. And has been for a number of years imo.

I mean, it’s their sandbox, their term to describe something, and their rules. If it doesn't the tell the story we want it to means very little IMO.

LOL. I don’t lose any sleep over it.. Believe me.. But you brought it up a couple posts back regarding combining Omaha-Lincoln together..

In any case..

What’s flawed is flawed. That does not change..and like I said earlier, likely won’t in your lifetime either…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Yes. I'd love to see us get them counted with us. I know our commute patterns don't come close to justifying it... Eventually though we'll get there one way or the other. Much like DFW.

I think this is the first time I’ve seen you aspire for Omaha to be anything like DFW

[Coyote]

I think this is the first time I’ve seen you aspire for Omaha to be anything like DFW

I take it from Lou, the Omaha Cowboy, that Omaha aspires to be like Dallas/Fort Worth…

[Athomsfere]

I think this is the first time I’ve seen you aspire for Omaha to be anything like DFW

LOL, a slight twist of the words there.

But similar distances and one metro would certainly help us bring in some new and cool stuff.

[Garrett]

City limits numbers are out, up to 483,335 in Omaha. Still down from 2020’s 486,000 but a nice little uptick after a couple years of losses

[stormchaser]

There is no way these estimates are accurate - are they? WOWT is claiming the estimates show Omaha has lost ~9500 people from July 2020 to July 2023. Where???

https://www.wowt.com/2024/05/16/census- ... utType=amp

[Garrett]

There is no way these estimates are accurate - are they? WOWT is claiming the estimates show Omaha has lost ~9500 people from July 2020 to July 2023. Where???

https://www.wowt.com/2024/05/16/census- ... utType=amp

Ohhhhh I didn’t realize they were comparing to an estimate base of 491,000 from 2020. Interesting. What have the annexation packages looked like for the past couple of years?

[stormchaser]

There is no way these estimates are accurate - are they? WOWT is claiming the estimates show Omaha has lost ~9500 people from July 2020 to July 2023. Where???

https://www.wowt.com/2024/05/16/census- ... utType=amp

Ohhhhh I didn’t realize they were comparing to an estimate base of 491,000 from 2020. Interesting. What have the annexation packages looked like for the past couple of years?

Yeah, I mean either way it surprises me they’d still claim any loss at all.

I realize Covid made an impact and being able to work from “home” (or wherever) may motivate people to relocate but still.

[thenewguy]

There is no way these estimates are accurate - are they? WOWT is claiming the estimates show Omaha has lost ~9500 people from July 2020 to July 2023. Where???

https://www.wowt.com/2024/05/16/census- ... utType=amp

Ohhhhh I didn’t realize they were comparing to an estimate base of 491,000 from 2020. Interesting. What have the annexation packages looked like for the past couple of years?

Yeah, I mean either way it surprises me they’d still claim any loss at all.

I realize Covid made an impact and being able to work from “home” (or wherever) may motivate people to relocate but still.

not to mention that in the article, Matt Walsh said that the traditional follow up to people who didn't complete the questionnaire in time was impacted during 2020. I'm willing to bet those numbers aren't totally accurate

[skinzfan23]

Yes no way those are accurate. I understand in major cities, some people did move out of the city during covid but I don’t think I have heard of one single person in Omaha that did that as a direct result. Plus with all the apt buildings that have gone up in the past few years and are at near full occupancy, there is no way Omaha has lost people.

[jomaha9]

There was a separate report that I had seen where Omaha actually had the fastest growing economy by GDP last year. I have a hard time believing that a shrinking city would lead the country in GDP growth.

Given that the methods we measure GDP are more accurate than how we count people, I would venture to say that the census report is wrong and that Omaha is continuing to grow at a modest pace.

[Garrett]

Douglas and Sarpy county are both still growing. Part of it might be that Omaha hasn’t done a big annexation package for a few years. In the past that’s been a big engine for growth.

[ita]

9500 loss in Omaha is a significant. That's nearly 2% loss. We have been tracking housing starts in the separate thread (https://eomahaforums.com/viewtopic.php?t=22386). Based on the Census data for MSA, there have been a total of 22,675 permits issued in the Omaha-CB MSA from 2020-2023. Doesn't delineate how many were issued in city limits. I am sure the city can produce that data. Deliveries of multi-family did slow down due to supply chain and labor limitations, but I know the hard data.

Additionally, the average household in Omaha is comprised of 2.4 persons. Based on a 9,500 loss, the City of Omaha has 3,900 more unoccupied residential units than it did in 2019. Based on this chart from CBRE (https://mktgdocs.cbre.com/2299/8dff60b4 ... 584408.pdf), the multifamily vacancy rate is right around 6%, no worse than it's rate back in 2019. Housing stock is pretty low; someone on Grow Omaha said its still less then 30 days for for-sale residential housing. I am very surprised by the reported loss in city population.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Douglas and Sarpy county are both still growing. Part of it might be that Omaha hasn’t done a big annexation package for a few years.

Bingo!…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Coyote]

Nebraska ‘exurbs’ outshine suburbs in latest population growth figures

PLATTSMOUTH, Nebraska — Paul Lambert has long felt he lived in the sweet spot: not too far a drive from the cultural highlights of the state’s largest city, yet far enough away to savor the smaller town lifestyle. But this Cass County seat where he serves as Plattsmouth mayor had not seen population growth during the 2010-2020 decade nearly as swift as bedroom communities situated closer to major cities of Omaha and Lincoln. Now a newly released U.S. Census report is signaling a shift in where people are moving, said Josie Schafer, who heads the Center for Public Affairs Research at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, which is the State Data Center and liaison to the Census Bureau.

According to the annual estimates for mid-2022 to mid-2023, population counts stalled or backtracked a bit in some key suburban cities that had been among Nebraska’s fastest growing places last decade. Meanwhile, the pace picked up in other smaller communities, including Plattsmouth, that are located farther out on the fringes of a metro area. Demographers call those outer-ring areas exurbs — “farther out than a suburb but still in or close to a metropolitan area,” says Schafer.

[TitosBuritoBarn]

Here in St. Louis, we added the 2nd highest number of jobs among major midwestern cities, a large local developer told me they continue to build and fill new apartment buildings, and I continue to see a multitude of cars with out-of-state plates parked in front of these apartments. Furthermore, we have more active water mains than we did in 2020, which means there are more inhabited dwelling units than there were.

...and yet the Census thinks 20,000 people - an entire Papillion - left the city in four years. It's ridiculous and does not make any sense. The Census needs to get their |expletive| together about their population estimation methodology.

[Louie]

Yeah, this data seems to be flawed at best. You gonna tell me Gretna shrunk? Get bent.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Here in St. Louis, we added the 2nd highest number of jobs among major midwestern cities, a large local developer told me they continue to build and fill new apartment buildings, and I continue to see a multitude of cars with out-of-state plates parked in front of these apartments. Furthermore, we have more active water mains than we did in 2020, which means there are more inhabited dwelling units than there were.

...and yet the Census thinks 20,000 people - an entire Papillion - left the city in four years. It's ridiculous and does not make any sense. The Census needs to get their |expletive| together about their population estimation methodology.

I’ve been saying for years, these US Census annual estimates are flawed..And typically lowball the Omaha MSA. People roll their eyes whe i say this- but I have “boots on the ground” here. My “eye test” tells me a different story- COMPLETELY…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Linkin5]

I am officially convinced of these estimates being off. There is absolutely zero way Gretna lost population. Census truthers unite.

[Coyote]

Study outlines growth of exurbs in Nebraska