Past, Present and Projected Climates

General discussion on all things Omaha.
Erik
Parks & Recreation
Posts: 1523
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:55 am

Re: Past, Present and Projected Climates

Post by Erik »

BRoss wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2026 5:00 pm I love what you've pulled together here.

As an FYI, it may be better to use "pre" or "nfo" blocks instead of "code". For example, taking one of your tables above:

code

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REGIONAL RURAL WARMING: 1980s vs. 2021–2026 ACTUALS
(Annual Mean Temperatures in Degrees Fahrenheit)

Location          | 1981-90 Mean | 2021-26 Mean | Total ΔT | Warming Multiplier
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OMAHA (Eppley)    |    50.2°F    |    56.1°F    |  +5.9°F  |       3.3x
LINCOLN (Airport) |    51.1°F    |    56.4°F    |  +5.3°F  |       2.9x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FREMONT, NE       |    49.6°F    |    54.9°F    |  +5.3°F  |       2.9x
NEBRASKA CITY, NE |    50.8°F    |    55.9°F    |  +5.1°F  |       2.8x
BLAIR, NE         |    49.4°F    |    54.7°F    |  +5.3°F  |       2.9x
RED OAK, IA       |    50.4°F    |    55.7°F    |  +5.3°F  |       2.9x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGIONAL AVERAGE  |    50.2°F    |    55.6°F    |  +5.4°F  |       3.0x

nfo 
REGIONAL RURAL WARMING: 1980s vs. 2021–2026 ACTUALS
(Annual Mean Temperatures in Degrees Fahrenheit)

Location          | 1981-90 Mean | 2021-26 Mean | Total ΔT | Warming Multiplier
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OMAHA (Eppley)    |    50.2°F    |    56.1°F    |  +5.9°F  |       3.3x
LINCOLN (Airport) |    51.1°F    |    56.4°F    |  +5.3°F  |       2.9x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FREMONT, NE       |    49.6°F    |    54.9°F    |  +5.3°F  |       2.9x
NEBRASKA CITY, NE |    50.8°F    |    55.9°F    |  +5.1°F  |       2.8x
BLAIR, NE         |    49.4°F    |    54.7°F    |  +5.3°F  |       2.9x
RED OAK, IA       |    50.4°F    |    55.7°F    |  +5.3°F  |       2.9x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGIONAL AVERAGE  |    50.2°F    |    55.6°F    |  +5.4°F  |       3.0x

pre 
REGIONAL RURAL WARMING: 1980s vs. 2021–2026 ACTUALS
(Annual Mean Temperatures in Degrees Fahrenheit)

Location          | 1981-90 Mean | 2021-26 Mean | Total ΔT | Warming Multiplier
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OMAHA (Eppley)    |    50.2°F    |    56.1°F    |  +5.9°F  |       3.3x
LINCOLN (Airport) |    51.1°F    |    56.4°F    |  +5.3°F  |       2.9x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FREMONT, NE       |    49.6°F    |    54.9°F    |  +5.3°F  |       2.9x
NEBRASKA CITY, NE |    50.8°F    |    55.9°F    |  +5.1°F  |       2.8x
BLAIR, NE         |    49.4°F    |    54.7°F    |  +5.3°F  |       2.9x
RED OAK, IA       |    50.4°F    |    55.7°F    |  +5.3°F  |       2.9x
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGIONAL AVERAGE  |    50.2°F    |    55.6°F    |  +5.4°F  |       3.0x
Thank you! Those are better, ill start using those
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BRoss
IT Director
Posts: 10003360
Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:39 pm
Location: West Central Omaha

Re: Past, Present and Projected Climates

Post by BRoss »

Erik wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2026 5:15 pm Thank you! Those are better, ill start using those
I also got the HTML table functionality working. Turns out there was a custom BBCode I had set up a long time ago that interfered with it. If you click the "Create tables" button on the bottom right of the formatting toolbar, it tells you how to use it. That said, I do kind of like the preformatted pipe tables you are doing better. If the HTML tables interfere, be sure to put the "code", "pre", or "nfo" opening and closing tags on their own lines.
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Erik
Parks & Recreation
Posts: 1523
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 12:55 am

Re: Past, Present and Projected Climates

Post by Erik »

BRoss wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2026 6:34 pm
Erik wrote: Sat Mar 07, 2026 5:15 pm Thank you! Those are better, ill start using those
I also got the HTML table functionality working. Turns out there was a custom BBCode I had set up a long time ago that interfered with it. If you click the "Create tables" button on the bottom right of the formatting toolbar, it tells you how to use it. That said, I do kind of like the preformatted pipe tables you are doing better. If the HTML tables interfere, be sure to put the "code", "pre", or "nfo" opening and closing tags on their own lines.
Okay! Just in time for a new assessment. This time its how the solar cycles affect our climate.

Come to find out, solar maximums historically have had almost no affect on on average. Solar minimums do cool us by 1.0°F to 1.5F° against a rolling average, however.

I have two summaries at the bottom. One with Every solar cycle since the last of the 19th century, the other is discarding major El Ninos and La Ninas. I did both in case one wonders if there is bias.

Both Summaries are equally important to assess.

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Omaha Master Data: Solar, Ocean, and Era Deviations (Cycles 13–25)

​Cycle | Phase | Year | Om Obs | Era Norm | Omaha Dev | Ocean Veto | Match?
   ​13 |  MAX  | 1894 | 51.00  | 51.50    | -0.50°F | Neutral ENSO | No ❌
   13 |  MIN  | 1901 | 53.50  | 51.50    | +2.00°F | Warm AMO Phase | No ❌
   14 |  MAX  | 1907 | 52.40  | 51.50    | +0.90°F | Neutral ENSO | Yes ✅
   14 |  MIN  | 1913 | 51.30  | 51.50    | -0.20°F | Neutral ENSO | Yes ✅
   15 |  MAX  | 1917 | 50.70  | 51.50    | -0.80°F | Strong La Niña | No ❌
   15 |  MIN  | 1923 | 50.80  | 51.50    | -0.70°F | Cool PDO | Yes ✅
   16 |  MAX  | 1928 | 50.70  | 51.50    | -0.80°F | Neutral ENSO | No ❌
   16 |  MIN  | 1933 | 50.50  | 52.30    | -1.80°F | Neutral ENSO | Yes ✅
   17 |  MAX  | 1937 | 51.40  | 52.30    | -0.90°F | Cool PDO Phase | No ❌
   17 |  MIN  | 1944 | 49.40  | 52.30    | -2.90°F | Neutral ENSO | Yes ✅
   18 |  MAX  | 1947 | 51.60  | 52.30    | -0.70°F | Cool PDO | No ❌
   18 |  MIN  | 1954 | 52.80  | 52.30    | +0.50°F | Dust Bowl/Dry | No ❌
   19 |  MAX  | 1958 | 53.60  | 52.30    | +1.30°F | Strong El Niño | Yes ✅
   19 |  MIN  | 1964 | 48.30  | 52.40    | -4.10°F | Neutral ENSO | Yes ✅
   20 |  MAX  | 1968 | 50.30  | 52.40    | -2.10°F | Cool PDO Phase | No ❌
   20 |  MIN  | 1976 | 51.60  | 52.40    | -0.80°F | Cool PDO | Yes ✅
   21 |  MAX  | 1980 | 52.80  | 52.40    | +0.40°F | Heat Dome | Yes ✅
   21 |  MIN  | 1986 | 52.70  | 52.40    | +0.30°F | Strong El Niño | No ❌
   22 |  MAX  | 1990 | 53.40  | 52.40    | +1.00°F | Warm AMO | Yes ✅
   22 |  MIN  | 1996 | 54.30  | 54.70    | -0.40°F | Cool PDO Phase | Yes ✅
   23 |  MAX  | 2000 | 53.70  | 54.70    | -1.00°F | Strong La Niña | No ❌
   23 |  MIN  | 2008 | 51.90  | 54.70    | -2.80°F | Cool PDO | Yes ✅
   24 |  MAX  | 2014 | 55.60  | 54.70    | +0.90°F | Neutral ENSO | Yes ✅
   24 |  MIN  | 2019 | 53.60  | 54.70    | -1.10°F | Neutral ENSO | Yes ✅
   25 |  MAX  | 2024 | 56.00  | 54.70    | +1.30°F | Strong El Niño | Yes ✅

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​Statistical Summary (Cycles 13–25)

​TOTALS         | Matches | Percentage | Avg Deviation
​Solar Maximums | 7 / 13  |   53.85%   | -0.01°F
Solar Minimums | 9 / 12  |   75.00%   | -0.93°F

​NEUTRAL ONLY   | Matches | Percentage | Avg Deviation
​Solar Maximums |  4 / 8  |   50.00%   | +0.05°F
Solar Minimums |  7 / 9  |   77.78%   | -1.38°F
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