Downtown Recovery

[nebport5]

Target is opening a new location in Harlem about a mile away in a couple months. Citing crime seems… odd.

New York City is in a blue state. Thus, it must be Mad Max.

Red states, as you ought know, are bastions of culture and sophistication. They are civilized perhaps to a fault.

Yeah........

[Renovator2559]

Is this the best example you can come up with for Florida, of a single mentally challenged man? Where are the countless mass lootings, crime, shooting drugs in the open, poop and needles on the side walks?

[almighty_tuna]

I thought that was only in Tulsa. I haven't heard about that place in a while and am concerned for its well-being.

[Renovator2559]

I thought that was only in Tulsa. I haven't heard about that place in a while and am concerned for its well-being.

Funny you mention Tulsa, I'm currently in Tulsa

[Garrett]

I thought that was only in Tulsa. I haven't heard about that place in a while and am concerned for its well-being.

Is Florida good or is Florida bad? I can't tell these days.

[Renovator2559]

Florida has its flaws yes, building cities is not their forte as they were influenced by the car progressive style growth of the 60s. Compared to great cities that have existed for millenia, of tradional well tested ideas through time.

Also education is not a strong suit for Florida either, so they have have to invest in education to have as good education as Texas.

What I will give credit to Florida is that their government is doing a better job at protecting minors and supporting law and order, than say California. You just don't see people sharing tiktok videos of chaos in Florida.

[almighty_tuna]

I thought that was only in Tulsa. I haven't heard about that place in a while and am concerned for its well-being.

Is Florida good or is Florida bad? I can't tell these days.

[Big E]

[Renovator2559]

Updated April 2024

Data on cell phone activity (a.k.a. footfall) trends for the last year provide a picture of how downtowns are faring since our last rankings update in the summer of 2023. We look here at trends from March 1, 2023 through February 29, 2024. Trends are based on data from Spectus, but use different cell phone data providers from our rankings analysis. The trendlines measure the average level of activity over the course of the year, while the ranking metric shows the percent difference in the average number of stops in February 2024 relative to March 2023.

The dotted line provides a baseline of the average level of activity in March 2023, allowing for comparison to subsequent months. The solid line represents the average level of activity by week. When the solid line extends above the dotted baseline, downtown activity is greater compared to in March 2023. When it dips below the dotted line, activity is on a downswing. For most cities, there is an increase in month 6 or 7; this is expected since these are the summer months of June and July. The fall months see decreasing activity on average, with almost all downtowns losing activity by November. However, some cities stay above the March baseline, suggesting gradual recovery, while others dip well below it, i.e., stagnating recovery.

Key Findings
Overall, the median rate of change is 9.3% over the year, meaning that the median downtown in the U.S. and Canada’s largest metropolitan areas are gradually seeing more activity. Fifty downtowns are in an upward trajectory, while just 14 are trending downwards.

With a couple exceptions, the downtowns that are seeing the highest rates of activity increase, consistently higher relative to 2023, are the ones that were below 80% in our 2023 rankings. These cities seem to be trending towards recovery: Minneapolis, Montreal, Ottawa, Chicago, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Boston, Washington DC, and Toronto. In other words, their recovery may now be converging with the downtowns that largely recovered in 2023.

On the other hand, for the 14 cities where recovery is faltering, we see three types of patterns. For a handful of cities that previously topped our rankings, such as Las Vegas, Colorado Springs, San Antonio, Fort Worth, Tampa, Wichita, Oklahoma City, activity rates are slowing (albeit slightly for most) and changing very little since March 2023. On the other hand, Dallas and San Francisco are both quite volatile, with significant new activity in summer 2023 decreasing below the baseline by fall and winter. A few downtowns, including Houston, Memphis, and Nashville, have basically stalled at the March 2023 activity rate.

To the extent possible, we will update this data on a monthly basis through 2024.

Visits to Downtown (March 1, 2023 to March 1, 2024)

1. Minneapolis 45.3%
2. Ottawa 38.0%
3. Montreal 36.4%
4. Chicago 35.5%
5. Louisville 32.5%
6. Pittsburgh 30.5%
7. Cincinnati 28.3%
8. San Jose 28.2%
9. Boston 27.3%
10. Washington DC 26.3%
11. Toronto 25.0%
12. Los Angeles 24.5%
13. Quebec 24.3%
14. Edmonton 23.2%
15. San Diego 21.4%
16. Oakland 20.6%
17. Detroit 20.2%
18. Raleigh 19.9%
19. Calgary 19.6%
20. New York 18.9%
21. Philadelphia 18.0%
22. Vancouver 17.3%
23. Winnipeg 16.7%
24. Honolulu 16.3%
25. Milwaukee 16.3%
26. St Louis 15.9%
27. Portland 14.1%
28. Denver 13.6%
29. Jacksonville 12.5%
30. Halifax 12.5%
31. Orlando 10.9%
32. Fresno 9.3%
33. Cleveland 9.2%
34. Sacramento 8.9%
35. Indianapolis 8.7%
36. Austin 7.9%
37. Albuquerque7.8%
38. Atlanta 7.4%
39. Bakersfield 7.4%
40. Seattle 7.0%
41. Kansas City 6.9%
42. Baltimore 6.5%
43. Tulsa 3.5%
44. Phoenix 3.5%
45. Columbus 3.2%
46. Omaha 3.0%
47. Salt Lake City 2.3%
48. Miami 0.5%
49. Tucson 0.4%
50. Charlotte 0.4%
51. Houston -0.5%
52. Memphis -1.0%
53. Nashville -2.6%
54. Wichita -2.9%
55. Oklahoma City -3.9%
56. Dallas -4.6%
57. London -4.9%
58. New Orleans -6.1%
59. Tampa -6.9%
60. Las Vegas -7.7%
61. Colorado Springs -8.1%
62. Fort Worth -9.4%
63. San Antonio -17.5%
64. San Francisco -21.6%

https://downtownrecovery.com/charts/trends

[Louie]

I’m shocked that it was only 3% with the new parks system.

[Renovator2559]

I’m shocked that it was only 3% with the new parks system.

Me too, and to be honest Tulsa being higher doesn't make sense. It's a sleepy town. I hardly saw people in downtown a few weeks ago on a Sunday. There's only one apartment complex in downtown Tulsa under constructing but no other construction projects in their core.(probably because they are focusing on expanding suburbs)

For Oklahoma city, there were only people because of a game right next to Bricktown, it basically attracts the sports crowd but it's not really a family friendly area because of all the bars.
On Sunday, Oklahoma City downtown was sleepy, empty streecars, the Bricktown canal felt empty, maybe because Bricktown is mostly meant for getting drinks with friends and watching or attending the game.
There was one apartment complex under construction by the streetcar on the west OKC core but no other visible construction projects in the OKC core, in fact a stretch of one of the streetcar route, passes through nothing but surface parking lots.

Of all the many times I go to the Riverfront In Omaha (quite frequently, love the Riverfront!), I didn't feel any of the cities I visited a few weeks ago (Wichita, Tulsa, Little Rock) to be anywhere as vibrant as the Old Market and the Riverfront.
St Louis had a decent amount of people for a Tuesday and for being a larger city, so I can't really say, of course there are very few activities to do in the compact riverfront, other than to walk and jog or go to Archway museum.

KC City Market area on Saturday was teaming with people, quite vibrant. As expected of a larger city.

OKC only attracted plenty of people on a Saturday because of a game "sports crowd" but was sleepy on Sunday; I still didn't see the number of people density in both the Old Market and the Riverfront that I see as a frequent visitor.

Maybe this methodology should be taken with a grain of salt, as I find it pretty odd that a very northern city like Edmonton has high numbers. How can that be? It's a highly isolated Canadian city along with Calgary in the middle of nowhere.

Also, let's not forget that Heartland of America and Lewis and Clark opened on August, last year.

[Cermak]

Omaha does seem really low on this ranking. The GLM is usually packed anytime the weather is decent. Maybe they aren’t counting that part of DT and stop at 15th Street or something. The numbers for Omaha just seem off. I have been amazed at the crowds the new mall pulls in even on weekdays and weeknight evenings. This ranking system seems flawed.

[skinzfan23]

Agreed, there is no way they are including the mall area.

[Linkin5]

This is hilariously incorrect.

[Renovator2559]

The source is from University of Toronto, so it doesn't surprise me why Canadian cities are high up the list. Still it's fun to see what a Canadian source has to say.

[riceweb]

This only shows the difference between March 1 2023 and March 1 2024, right? That seems believable to me, I don't think there's been any large change in commuting behavior in Omaha during that timeframe (most Omaha changes were earlier).

[ita]

This study was part of an NPR article today. They published findings here showing recovery during the week based on work day counts and after hours. Omaha fairs well ranking 11th overall. This data supports what we are all seeing and what Heath Mello reported other are noticing downtown during the work week.

I will add that this information does not tell the whole story and I think our downtown specifically is doing better than what this study is showing. I briefly reviewed their methodology, specifically how they defined each city's downtown. Initially they used zip codes. Since October 2023, they implemented algorithm based boundaries built around job density data and validated by personal knowledge and how cities define their downtown. They posted screenshots of how the new and zip code based boundaries compare. You can see that [url=chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://downtownrecovery.com/downtown_definitions_2.pdf]here[/url]. Red is the new boundaries, yellow the old. As you can see a significant portion of downtown, specifically North Downtown and the north riverfront is excluded in the new boundaries. Additionally, Heartland of America park is not captured. That is a lot of new workers, like those at Kiewit and the Ashton in Millwork Commons, and visitors since the pandemic being left out. Those areas were practically inactive before the pandemic.

I sent the lead researcher an email today with my opinion of their new boundary. I sent them this mark up. It's rough, but I tried to capture more of what is part of downtown. My addition is area between the blue line and red area. If you have any suggestions on improving the boundaries, let me know!

[Athomsfere]

I'm not so convinced it is that far off.

Nor that it's such a bad thing for what its telling us.

Pulling random numbers out for the point and I can't recall the exact numbers but:

Assuming in 2019 we had 30k people working downtown, if we lost 15% to WFH and added 1500 people daily between the GLM, Luminarium, and housing we would be pretty much right on point to the graph.

[Garrett]

https://flatwaterfreepress.org/redevelo ... ueling-it/

Nice little article about Downtown's recovery in the Flatwater Free Press

[Omaha Cowboy]

https://flatwaterfreepress.org/redevelo ... ueling-it/

Nice little article about Downtown's recovery in the Flatwater Free Press

Great article..

Thanks for the share …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[WorldStreet]

https://flatwaterfreepress.org/redevelo ... ueling-it/

Nice little article about Downtown's recovery in the Flatwater Free Press

This is an article full of interesting information. I'm glad I took the time to read it and as a bonus, the videos imbedded into the article have very impressive resolution.