Is 1 million still impressive?

[edsas]

I was looking at the figures for the top 25 CSAs that somebody posted at Skyscraperpage and it makes me wonder how much of a landmark Omaha's crawl towards 1 million will really be by the time it gets there.

20 years ago, 1 million seemed very impressive and if your city was that size, then it was in a pretty exclusive club. But now Omaha is knocking on the door of 1 million but it is still only the nation's 60th largest CSA.

So while it will be a great day on a local level for Omaha when it reaches 1 million, will it really matter in real terms. People have said that 1 million is the magic mark for a city to be considered for many franchise expansions. Do you think this will continue to be true or does a city's overall population rank matter more?

Let's put it this way... Which would bennifit Omaha more? A population of 1,000,000 but still only the 60th largest CSA or a poulation of less than a million (let's take the current poulation of 820,000) but a ranking of 45th largest CSA?

Even today the 1 million mark has not been a magic bullet. OKC and Las Vegas, for example, are still without major professional sports.

What do you guys think? Are the benifits that come with reaching 1 million real or are they an illusion.

By the way, here's that list of the top 25 CSAs (2003 estimates). So many cities are leaving the 1 million mark in the dust.


1 New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA 21,361,797
2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA 16,373,645
3 Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI 9,312,255
4 Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV 7,538,385
5 San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA 7,092,596
6 Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD 5,833,585
7 Boston-Worcester-Manchester, MA-NH 5,715,698
8 Detroit-Warren-Flint, MI 5,357,538
9 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 5,346,119
10 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 5,007,564 *
11 Houston-Baytown-Huntsville, TX 4,815,122
12 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville, GA-AL 4,548,344
13 Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia, WA 3,604,165
14 Minneapolis-St. Paul-St. Cloud, MN-WI 3,271,888
15 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 3,251,876 *
16 Cleveland-Akron-Elyria, OH 2,945,831
17 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 2,813,833 *
18 St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL 2,754,328
19 Pittsburgh-New Castle, PA 2,525,730
20 Denver-Aurora-Boulder, CO 2,449,054
21 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 2,395,997 *
22 Cincinnati-Middletown-Wilmington, OH-KY-IN 2,050,175
23 Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Truckee, CA-NV 1,930,149
24 Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 1,927,881 *
25 Kansas City-Overland Park-Kansas City, MO-KS 1,901,070

* MSA only

[edsas]

Follow-up question:

Do you think Omaha will be able to crawl up the ranking chart? Or do you think it will stay in the 50 to 60 range?

Or, for that matter, do you think it will ever drop in rank to around 70 or even 80?

[sokkerdewd]

While the Big O may hit a million by 2015, it won't have major league sports by then...unless a major financieer buys an NBA or NHL franchise and locates it here - but that wouldn't be due to sheer virtue of its size, but rather the ability to draw a fan base from Lincoln, Des Moines, and Kansas City as well. And KC doesn't have those yet.

The million mark is important for retail/restaurant/hotel franchises and additional airline service, however, while rank is important for major league sports. It's also an important mark for people unfamiliar with the area...especially those being recruited to work here. A city of a million is percieved to provide the community/culture/vibrancy for everyone looking for their niche...whereas a city of 800,000 is viewed as a Stockton, rather than a Sacramento; or a Syracuse, rather than a Providence. It's all about perception.

[eomaha]

Pure population will -most often- be more important than our rank in the overall scheme of things.

Omaha may NEVER have a major league sports franchise for precisely that reason (we may never 'catch up').

BUT Omaha will indeed benefit from having over 1 million people in so many other ways... it's still simple economics for retailers, restaurants, entertainment (amusement parks)... when considering a market. You have over a million people... I don't care how far behind you are the rest of the nation in population... you still represent a prospective profitable market.

[edsas]

Thanks for putting it in better perspective, guys.

I definitely see the significance of 1,000,000 through a marketing standpoint.

My feeling regarding how Omaha will fair in terms of rankings is that its steady tortoise growth pattern serves it well. My gut tells me that people are going to get tired of some of these sun-belt phenoms and look for cities that handled growth smartly. Omaha has done well in that department. We might see a short-term drop in rankings as a handful of up-an-coming sunbelt metros move past it. But there are also several stagnant Eastern metros that Omaha is poised to move past itself. Also, there's got to be a rebound sometime within the next decade or so of people who "miss the seasons" heading back north.

Also, Nebraska seems to have laid a good foundation for industry recruitment. Offer people the right job and they'll come from anywhere to work in Omaha.

[StreetsOfOmaha]

One of my favorite little sayings in life is, "It's All Relative."

While population and population rank are both very important when it comes to demographics, marketing, economics, etc., there's something untangeable that defines a city to me. There are cities with 3 million + people that have no character, charm, or vibrance, and there are cities much smaller than Omaha that have great character and urbanity.

Plus, I would go so far as to say that Omaha is a "special circumstance" (which marketers and demographers aren't going to factor into their reports ), because of the fact that it's such a major player in its region. I know I've said this before, but look at cities Omaha's size on the east coast. They're completely obscure and overshadowed by the "big boys". While Omaha is one of the top cities in the region.

But I know none of this matters, because we're just talking about sheer numbers. Oh well .

Anyway, as I said, it's all relative.