Nebraska inches closer to 2 million

[edsas2]

So the state clocked in at an official 1,961,504 in 2020. If Nebraska continues to grow at its recent pace of roughly 15,000 per year, that would have us crossing the 2 million mark this coming summer. Nice milestone to hit.

[edsas2]

Nebraska (along with a lot of other states) had a tremendous slow down since the pandemic and it looks like it could take much longer than previously expected to hit 2 million.

Idaho is also poised to jump past Nebraska within the next year or so.

https://omaha.com/news/state-and-region ... 86856.html

[TitosBuritoBarn]

Looking at the growth in other states, I'm really curious to see the county by county and demographic changes because very little of what the Census Bureau has estimated for 2022 population change tracks with what I would expect.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I’m not as concerned. I think these 2021ish estimates are remnants from the Covid time, and I do expect the growth to pop back up..

From the W-H piece linked in the last post here-

“ “it’s likely that will pop back up as the economy has kind of settled down from all of the COVID disruptions,” Drozd said. “We still have a lot of millennials who are just getting married and starting to have kids. There could be some positive movement going forward.”’…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[skinzfan23]

Have to believe most of the growth came from the Omaha metro area.

Crazy to think NE grew 54% more than IA in the past year.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I believe this and the 2021 metropolitan area estimates which came out earlier this year, we’re “off” due to the pandemic..

Next year we should have estimates which are more in line with the eye test and actual growth…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[edsas2]

I believe Nebraska will see robust growth this coming decade fueled mostly by growth in metro Omaha. I think with all of the billions in development going on here along with the metro crossing the 1 million resident threshold, Omaha's numbers will compound a little more rapidly. You see this with a lot of urban areas that creep along toward that million mark and then when they finally hit the threshold, the shackles come off. Places like OKC and Raleigh come to mind. I think Omaha will follow that pattern.

It's interesting to compare Nebraska's gains last decades to a few states of similar size. Nebraska grew by 7.4% last decade with a 140,000 gain. Kansas only gained 3% with a raw number of 80,000. New Mexico gained 2.8% with a raw number of 60,000. Arkansas gained 3.3% with a raw number of 100,000. I think that speaks to the diversified economies of Omaha and Lincoln for Nebraska to have outgained in raw numbers three states with larger population bases. I see that advantage continuing (and perhaps intensifying) over the next decade.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I believe Nebraska will see robust growth this coming decade fueled mostly by growth in metro Omaha. I think with all of the billions in development going on here along with the metro crossing the 1 million resident threshold, Omaha's numbers will compound a little more rapidly. You see this with a lot of urban areas that creep along toward that million mark and then when they finally hit the threshold, the shackles come off. Places like OKC and Raleigh come to mind. I think Omaha will follow that pattern.

Agreed..

The amount of money proposed for economic development in Omaha’s core area alone, pretty much requires more robust population growth. Omaha will see that growth because the development demands it…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Linkin5]

I was reading something the other week and they were talking about a redistribution of population from southern areas into the Midwest and plain states due housing costs and job availability. It will be interesting to see how everything plays out, my entire life we’ve seen all population shifts primarily favor the south.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I was reading something the other week and they were talking about a redistribution of population from southern areas into the Midwest and plain states due housing costs and job availability. It will be interesting to see how everything plays out, my entire life we’ve seen all population shifts primarily favor the south.

Now that would be an interesting (and welcome) turn of events…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[buildomaha]

I would love to see that. A lot of midwestern cities have great bones. Many of the cultural amenities and infrastructure have gone underutilized with urban exodus and southern migration in the past few decades.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I would love to see that. A lot of midwestern cities have great bones. Many of the cultural amenities and infrastructure have gone underutilized with urban exodus and southern migration in the past few decades.

Completely agree…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[riceweb]

South Dakota has been growing rapidly. Why have they been growing but we've been relatively stagnant?

[Omaha Cowboy]

I don’t know that Nebraska has been stagnant as it relates to growth. It’s grown more rapidly than Iowa, Kansas and several other Midwest states. But you’re correct, compared to SD, the growth has been much, much slower overall. It’s hard to stamp a reason for it. Growth tends to be cyclical in nature. But I believe part of the attractiveness of SD is their tax structure/cost of living. That’s part of what’s making it an attractive place to consider moving to. But eventually that will catch up to them..As I believe it has with Nebraska to a certain extent..

We’ll see how this shakes out over the course of this decade…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Louie]

South Dakota has been growing rapidly. Why have they been growing but we've been relatively stagnant?

Going through the fastest growing cities here: http://www.usa.com/rank/south-dakota-st ... y-rank.htm, and it shows a unique factor that Nebraska doesn't have. While Sioux Falls and Rapid City metros are growing much like our large metros, they also are seeing big growth in and around the Black Hills in smaller towns. There has been big growth in towns/cities with natural features like that nearby and SD is definitely getting benefits from it.

[Omaha Cowboy]

South Dakota has been growing rapidly. Why have they been growing but we've been relatively stagnant?

Going through the fastest growing cities here: http://www.usa.com/rank/south-dakota-st ... y-rank.htm, and it shows a unique factor that Nebraska doesn't have. While Sioux Falls and Rapid City metros are growing much like our large metros, they also are seeing big growth in and around the Black Hills in smaller towns. There has been big growth in towns/cities with natural features like that nearby and SD is definitely getting benefits from it.

That is also a very good point.. It’s an area Nebraska can do better in. But compared to the Black Hills/Badlands, Nebraska really doesn’t have an area comparable…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[TitosBuritoBarn]

Keep in mind there are 80,000 more people in the Omaha metro area than there are in the entire state of South Dakota. I don't know what's bringing people in to South Dakota but metro Omaha brought in more people in terms of both raw numbers and percentage growth for the 2010-2020 census.

[riceweb]

Just to add to that, South Dakota has actually beaten us in both % terms and raw numbers since 2020.

[ita]

I am a broken record, but I think one of the reasons South Dakota outpaces it neighbors in relative population growth is the no income tax scheme. There is a good article about how non-income tax states accomplish it and pros and cons found here, but there is a good tidbit about population growth and job development that I pulled from it.

Eliminating income tax will increase take-home pay for everybody. It will make the state more appealing than its neighbors, attracting new firms, generating employment, and attracting employees. Is this, however, a true occurrence? Over the last several years, several economic policy bodies have fought back, raising doubts about if any of those statements are genuine.

When the leading nine states with the heaviest individual tax rates have been compared with the nine states which do not take a cut of its workers' income, statistics show that the group with no-tax had a significantly higher population development rate from around 2006 to around 2016 — around 11.9 percent verses about 5.6 percent, per the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.

Nevertheless, according to the ITEP, the more noteworthy result is that no-tax states have had difficulty adding employment at a rate adequate to keep up with their rising populations. Employment growth lagged population expansion in no-tax states by around 41%, relative to around 19% in states with high top tax levels.

[Linkin5]

No state income tax may have something to do with their growth, but Wyoming is right next door, has no state income tax and has pretty low population growth.

I think it has more to do with their deregulation of banking laws that most other states have, ushering in financial institutions and it turn jobs, that they otherwise would have never got.

[ita]

No state income tax may have something to do with their growth, but Wyoming is right next door, has no state income tax and has pretty low population growth.

I think it has more to do with their deregulation of banking laws that most other states have, ushering in financial institutions and it turn jobs, that they otherwise would have never got.

I came across another article about SD's trust laws that touched on that point:

Some South Dakota officials suggest the trusts create jobs. But the number of financial services jobs in the state actually dropped slightly over the past decade, from about 30,500 in 2009 to 29,000 in the pre-pandemic year of 2019. The number of lawyers in the state increased over the same period from 1,794 to 1,995. But that 11.2 percent rise lagged the national growth rate of 14.5 percent.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/howardglec ... 893152f256

[Linkin5]

That’s interesting thanks.

[Duggers_Dad]

Nebraska (along with a lot of other states) had a tremendous slow down since the pandemic and it looks like it could take much longer than previously expected to hit 2 million.

Idaho is also poised to jump past Nebraska within the next year or so.

https://omaha.com/news/state-and-region ... 86856.html

I’m curious as to why Nebraska growth slowed while other states boomed. I don’t get the impression that Covid restrictions in Nebraska were among the most draconian. Isn’t undercounting the more plausible explanation ? To watch Grow Omaha, the Omaha area is booming.

[Louie]

Nebraska (along with a lot of other states) had a tremendous slow down since the pandemic and it looks like it could take much longer than previously expected to hit 2 million.

Idaho is also poised to jump past Nebraska within the next year or so.

https://omaha.com/news/state-and-region ... 86856.html

I’m curious as to why Nebraska growth slowed while other states boomed. I don’t get the impression that Covid restrictions in Nebraska were among the most draconian. Isn’t undercounting the more plausible explanation ? To watch Grow Omaha, the Omaha area is booming.

My impression is that the Covid effects on Nebraska's population were from higher out-migration to places with better scenery/natural options. So that playing along with our already unfortunately high out-migration slowed the state as a whole.

[Garrett]

Nebraska (along with a lot of other states) had a tremendous slow down since the pandemic and it looks like it could take much longer than previously expected to hit 2 million.

Idaho is also poised to jump past Nebraska within the next year or so.

https://omaha.com/news/state-and-region ... 86856.html

I’m curious as to why Nebraska growth slowed while other states boomed. I don’t get the impression that Covid restrictions in Nebraska were among the most draconian. Isn’t undercounting the more plausible explanation ? To watch Grow Omaha, the Omaha area is booming.

A big component of Nebraska’s growth tends to be international migration. COVID killed that for a couple years, so that slowed growth. Natural births and domestic migration tend to be awash for the state

[Duggers_Dad]

Thanks for the responses. But if Nebraskans bolted because they want better scenery/natural options, why weren’t surrounding states affected in this fashion ? And international migration curtailed should have affected other states but did not, at least as reflected in growth patterns, see: Florida. Is high taxes in Nebraska a trope or are they markedly higher than surrounding states ?

[Garrett]

Thanks for the responses. But if Nebraskans bolted because they want better scenery/natural options, why weren’t surrounding states affected in this fashion ? And international migration curtailed should have affected other states but did not, at least as reflected in growth patterns, see: Florida. Is high taxes in Nebraska a trope or are they markedly higher than surrounding states ?

Well Florida still has a very strong domestic migration pattern which COVID only strengthened. Basically COVID just multiplied domestic migration patterns, so if your state was losing people domestically before COVID, it only lost more after. A lot of states were able to make this up with international migration, but as previously discussed, this basically evaporated.

And surrounding states were just as affected by the slowdown as Nebraska. I think Nebraska had a bigger raw number growth than Iowa or Kansas, even though it was small. It used to be only 1 or 2 states lost population. I think the latest estimates showed something like 20 states losing population.

[Duggers_Dad]

Interestingly, 2% of South Dakota’s growth since 2021 is from Nebraska, this from The World According To Briggs.