2023 Weather Thread

[Coyote]

Farmers' Almanac 2023 Winter Weather Extended Forecast

2023 Winter Weather Forecast for USA from Farmers' Almanac

AgDay Weather: Early Winter Outlook 2022-2023

Meteorologist Matt Yarosewick takes a look at the NOAA outlook that was released for the winter months. This forecast for the winter across the United States and is based on a La Nina pattern sticking around.

[Coyote]

EXTREME Cold & BIG Coastal Snowstorms!? Nor' Easter Pattern Developing? - Direct Weather Channel

[stormchaser]

Still looking like Omaha itself will get mostly rain out of this current storm system, maybe some thunder/heavier rain later on tonight...and then "maybe" a little bit of a mix or snow near the end of the precip (though I'm not overly optimistic that will happen in Omaha itself). Areas to our north and west will probably get hit pretty hard though with an ice storm and/or heavy snow.

The dry slot for this storm is probably going to move right over Omaha so the cut off in precip will be sharp before maybe some wrap around stuff moves back into the area before the storm system moves out of the area tomorrow evening.

[Cermak]

Looks pretty bad just to the North of Omaha. Hopefully we will get some decent precip from this system.

[Brad]

I saw the NWS saying up to a half inch of ice by Tekamah. Its too bad ice storms are so destructive because they also create some of the most beautiful photos.

[stormchaser]

I saw the NWS saying up to a half inch of ice by Tekamah. Its too bad ice storms are so destructive because they also create some of the most beautiful photos.

I agree...

It's worth mentioning, there has been a southeasterly shift in track observed today (hence why Omaha is in a winter weather advisory with an ice storm warning just barely to our north now). IF this southeasterly trend continues, Omaha still could end up getting enough ice to cause issues...

[Brad]

All the difference precip types have made for a very colorful radar this afternoon..

Green and Yellow = Rain
Red = Ice and Freezing Rain
Blue = Snow

IMG_2999.PNG

[stormchaser]

Most of the "measurable" precip has now ended in Omaha as the dry slot from this storm system has pushed in to our area. Some wrap around precip (probably light snow or a mix) is possible this afternoon but it shouldn't be a big deal.

Some healthy rain totals though with some thunder even - most places in Omaha saw between .5" and .75" of rain (based on radar estimates). Not enough to make a huge difference with the drought obviously but every little bit will help at least some and it's certainly better than nothing.

[Louie]

Received about 15 min of pea size/gravel size hail last night in Dundee. Some lightning and thunder as well.

[Uffda]

Snow fall in Eastern SDak over the last 24 hours.

[Cermak]

Really impressive snow totals for SD. Omaha has missed most of the snow so far this winter.

[stormchaser]

A few flakes are possible in the Omaha area on Saturday (very minor if it does happen), otherwise the weather looks quiet for the next few days.

The next chance for precipitation doesn't move in until "maybe" next Thursday (January 12th) though its obviously a ways out so confidence is low. The GFS and ECMWF both depict a storm system in our area but there are some relatively large differences between the 2 (which is also why confidence is low).

Otherwise nothing really noteworthy on the horizon for the time being with temps mostly depicted in the 30s/low 40s. Of course things can always quickly change though.

[stormchaser]

Models have already started trending the Thursday (January 12) storm system south and it now is depicted to miss us on both the GFS and ECMWF. Of course things will probably change a fair amount still between now and then and it could easily change back to impacting our area - but as of right now, odds have decreased.

[stormchaser]

It continues to look increasingly likely that the potential storm system toward midweek (Wednesday/Thursday) will pass far enough south of Omaha to have little (if any) impacts for our area (like I mentioned the other day).

Long range models are showing potential for a stronger storm system next Monday/Tuesday (Jan 16/17) but confidence is low since it’s so far out and models haven’t performed well this winter in the long range (they’ve struggled with the impacts of the drought and dry air as a result).

Otherwise relatively quiet weather until then probably…

[BRoss]

I'll take the milder weather for a while!

[stormchaser]

I'll take the milder weather for a while!

I agree, no complaints here

[Omaha Cowboy]

I'll take the milder weather for a while!

I agree, no complaints here

Count me in on this sentiment as well …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Cermak]

Yes, really nice weather right now for which is often about the coldest time of the year.

[nativeomahan]

I really think that the worst of Omaha’s cold winter is behind us for 2023.

[Louie]

I really think that the worst of Omaha’s cold winter is behind us for 2023.

Early in the year to make that bold of a claim!

[stormchaser]

Unfortunately I’d be surprised if we don’t have our fair share of cold/winter yet. In fact, I’d be surprised if we don’t get a fairly decent snow storm in the next few weeks (we’ve lucked out so far but not by much). Hopefully I’m wrong but it’s likely way too soon to expect the worst to be over yet. Only time will tell though.

[nativeomahan]

Unfortunately I’d be surprised if we don’t have our fair share of cold/winter yet. In fact, I’d be surprised if we don’t get a fairly decent snow storm in the next few weeks (we’ve lucked out so far but not by much). Hopefully I’m wrong but it’s likely way too soon to expect the worst to be over yet. Only time will tell though.

Of course. But each week that goes by now the daily averages get a little bit warmer.

[stormchaser]

Unfortunately I’d be surprised if we don’t have our fair share of cold/winter yet. In fact, I’d be surprised if we don’t get a fairly decent snow storm in the next few weeks (we’ve lucked out so far but not by much). Hopefully I’m wrong but it’s likely way too soon to expect the worst to be over yet. Only time will tell though.

Of course. But each week that goes by now the daily averages get a little bit warmer.

I get what you're saying - the days are getting longer anyway so gradually things will start to warm up (on average at least). But still, I get excited as we head into Spring since it's my favorite time of year (for obvious reasons) so I try not to get ahead of myself with thinking winter is nearly over - not yet ayway

[Busguy2010]

Lately the end of January/early February have been pretty rough. I won't be letting my guard down in any way.

[stormchaser]

The long range is continuing to show an active weather pattern for our area and I think our luck is about to run out with dodging snow storms in the local area.

A storm system will pass south of Omaha later today (and should miss us here in Omaha).

Early next week (Monday/Tuesday), another storm system is depicted. The ECMWF shows more of a wintry componenet to northwestern side of the storm (which "might" move through here depending on track). The GFS has been keeping most of the precip as all rain.

Then the following Wednesday night/Thursday (the 18th/19th), a more substantial snow producer is possible. It's way too far out to be confident but both long range models are in decent agreement which increases the odds at least. Something tells me this will be when our luck runs out. Only time will tell obviously .

[almighty_tuna]

Time to take the snowblower in for repair and jinx the whole shebang!

[stormchaser]

Time to take the snowblower in for repair and jinx the whole shebang!

Lol hopefully it helps!

[Busguy2010]

Yep, I took my snowblower out in November. Not needed so far, this season's snow has been very weak. I don't even think there's any snow remaining, save for the absolute darkest north facing spots.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Time to take the snowblower in for repair and jinx the whole shebang!

Damn I hope so..

In the meantime, I plan to enjoy this weekends high temps in the upper 40’s to low 50’s…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

Still on track for 2 potential storms to impact our area this week including an increasing chance for several inches of snow.

Storm 1:

The first storm is expected Monday and will bring with it mostly rain to our area (though dry air may prevent a lot of it from developing until east of here so we may not get much of anything precip wise out of this).

Not exactly impactful - BUT it will bring down some cold air from the north which will help setup things for storm #2.


Storm 2:

This storm continues to look increasingly likely to bring with it potential for our first real “need” to break out the snow blowers in Omaha this coming Wednesday into Thursday.

It’s several days away yet so many things can (and probably will) change yet - and based on how this year has gone, my optimism is still relatively low.

If things play out as depicted currently, however, 6” of snow is certainly possible for Omaha. But like I said, things will likely change so don't expect these amounts. I'm just indicating what's being shown right now and the "potential" that exists.

Will know more obviously as we get closer…

[Uffda]

Time to take the snowblower in for repair and jinx the whole shebang!

Damn I hope so..

In the meantime, I plan to enjoy this weekends high temps in the upper 40’s to low 50’s…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

This morning in Land o Lakes

[stormchaser]

Models continue to come into better alignment showing potential for a significant winter storm for the Omaha area this Wednesday into Thursday.

I’d expect winter storm watches to start being issued later today and/or early tomorrow.

Right now, odds are increasing we could end up with snow totals approaching a foot out of this of heavy/wet “heart attack” snow. That’s how it looks currently but it’s impossible to know snow totals “yet” and things can quickly change. Regardless, it’s looking increasingly likely this will be a pretty impactful storm for our area.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Time to take the snowblower in for repair and jinx the whole shebang!

Damn I hope so..

In the meantime, I plan to enjoy this weekends high temps in the upper 40’s to low 50’s…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

This morning in Land o Lakes

Yikes- that’s cold for your neck of the woods in FL…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Omaha Cowboy]

Models continue to come into better alignment showing potential for a significant winter storm for the Omaha area this Wednesday into Thursday.

I’d expect winter storm watches to start being issued later today and/or early tomorrow.

Right now, odds are increasing we could end up with snow totals approaching a foot out of this of heavy/wet “heart attack” snow. That’s how it looks currently but it’s impossible to know snow totals “yet” and things can quickly change. Regardless, it’s looking increasingly likely this will be a pretty impactful storm for our area.

I’ll continue to hope the models trend this either North or South…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

I’ll continue to hope the models trend this either North or South…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Fingers crossed anyway

Winter storm watches have been issued for parts of the area including in Lincoln and Omaha for this coming Wednesday into Thursday.

Right now, I'm thinking we will probably get somewhere in the 4" to 8" of snow range with some areas getting near or in excess of 10" of snow.

Still plenty of uncertainty though and things can still change obviously. If the track shifts north or south, we could end up with minimal amounts. If we get the brunt of the heavier snow, we could end up with more.

Right now, the GFS brings the brunt of the snowfall right over Omaha. However, the ECMWF and NAM have the track further north putting Omaha right on the edge of the heavier snow. For the time being, the best thing to do is blend the track of the models together (which still means Omaha would get hit pretty hard) and then watch for trends in the models to see if anything starts aligning a bit more.

[Coyote]

Another round of winter weather on the way for much of Nebraska
Over 70 percent of Nebraska is gearing up for winter weather once again,
with 67 of the state's 93 counties under a winter storm watch until late Wednesday.

HASTINGS, Neb. -- Over 70 percent of Nebraska is gearing up for winter weather once again, with 67 of the state's 93 counties under a winter storm watch until late Wednesday.

[Brad]

Still plenty of uncertainty though and things can still change obviously. If the track shifts north or south, we could end up with minimal amounts. If we get the brunt of the heavier snow, we could end up with more.

Right now, the GFS brings the brunt of the snowfall right over Omaha. However, the ECMWF and NAM have the track further north putting Omaha right on the edge of the heavier snow. For the time being, the best thing to do is blend the track of the models together (which still means Omaha would get hit pretty hard) and then watch for trends in the models to see if anything starts aligning a bit more.

They have all been consistently coning in in either Burt, Washington, or Douglas county. Only one time I saw something north of Burt County and another South of Douglas. Seems to be a little more consistent than some storms. In the grand scheme of things, 55 miles north and south doesn't seem bad for a storm that's still a few days out.

[stormchaser]

Still plenty of uncertainty though and things can still change obviously. If the track shifts north or south, we could end up with minimal amounts. If we get the brunt of the heavier snow, we could end up with more.

Right now, the GFS brings the brunt of the snowfall right over Omaha. However, the ECMWF and NAM have the track further north putting Omaha right on the edge of the heavier snow. For the time being, the best thing to do is blend the track of the models together (which still means Omaha would get hit pretty hard) and then watch for trends in the models to see if anything starts aligning a bit more.

They have all been consistently coning in in either Burt, Washington, or Douglas county. Only one time I saw something north of Burt County and another South of Douglas. Seems to be a little more consistent than some storms. In the grand scheme of things, 55 miles north and south doesn't seem bad for a storm that's still a few days out.

Yep, pretty good agreement overall anyway.

[BRoss]

Frankie is in agreement too.

[Coyote]

Frankie is in agreement too.

I was wondering where he went to….