2021 Census Estimates

[TitosBuritoBarn]

It was a bizarre year for population estimates. The US grew at a record low 0.1%, many states lost people, and Iowa outpaced Nebraska for the first time in a while:



https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... ates.html

Nebraska:
2020: 1,961,455
2021: 1,963,692
Growth %: 0.11%

Iowa:
2020: 3,188,669
2021: 3,193,079
Growth %: 0.14%

[Omaha Cowboy]

Honestly, the last 2 years of “estimates” have been an anomaly really..

I don’t put much stock in them at present. It least Nebraska didn’t lose population, lol…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Garrett]

Yikes. I'm usually used to seeing just a couple states lose population. 17 states losing is a lot. Seeing the DC numbers in particular could be foreboding for a lot of other cities. In my experience in NYC at least, a lot of people seem to be coming back. Guess we'll have to wait a year to see if there's gonna be a rebound. I think the slow growth in Nebraska combined with our unemployment rate really speaks to how much we need immigrants flowing again.

[nativeomahan]

Yes, when the US virtually slammed the door on immigration it slammed the door on its future. Our native born population is not fertile enough to grow the population all by itself. Like most of Europe, we need immigrants to fill vacant jobs openings, on the farm, in manufacturing plants, in hospitals, in retail and services. Near zero unemployment is a serious problem that many people do not recognize or understand. It means no businesses can grow, and many cannot survive. And if the population these businesses serve is shrinking, or not growing at a steady pace, it is another block in the road to their future growth.
When my husband recently had an accident and needed specialized emergency surgery the hospital called up a surgeon from Nigeria, who had never set foot in Nebraska until two days before the surgery. Hospitals in Omaha and across the country are desperate to fill all sorts of positions, from food service and janitorial to nursing, lab techs, and surgeons. I speak from experience in saying it is BAD, and getting worse. So many nurses are burning out and quitting. One half of the ICU rooms at the hospital we ended up at are shuttered…not for lack of patients, god knows, but because no one is on the payroll to staff the rooms.
These new numbers from the census bureau should serve as a wake up call that our nation is terribly off track.
And of course the 800,000+ dead from Covid must be factored in to the bottom line.
The good news is that these conditions are fairly easily correctable, if we all accept our responsibility as citizens to enhance the common good, and if our government shifts course in its policies.
The bad news is that we have known this for some time, and yet here we are.

[Erik]

Slowed immigration and covid is killing population growth. I had no idea it was going to be at this level

[Omaha Cowboy]

I believe, all thing’s considered..these estimates are not the most reliable to base a lot of opinion on..

Omaha still grew by 12% and added over 102,000 to it's metro population according to the official 2020 Census..and the estimate from last year (2020) lowballed many communities, including the Omaha metro..

I think this will sort itself out and we’ll continue to see healthy, robust Omaha metro growth and (hopefully) the state will as well…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Stargazer]

Maybe it's already been mentioned... but US population growth overall was only at 1/10th a percent each of the past 2 years... so Nebraska is at least matching that. More importantly, Omaha continues to pull in what the state overall loses (whether in state migration or gains from out of state).

With regards to the employment crunch though, I'm actually surprised the left hasn't been pushing the need for opening up immigration more. Is everyone still convinced we're suffering from millennials sitting at home collecting government checks?

[Erik]

Maybe it's already been mentioned... but US population growth overall was only at 1/10th a percent each of the past 2 years... so Nebraska is at least matching that. More importantly, Omaha continues to pull in what the state overall loses (whether in state migration or gains from out of state).

With regards to the employment crunch though, I'm actually surprised the left hasn't been pushing the need for opening up immigration more. Is everyone still convinced we're suffering from millennials sitting at home collecting government checks?

Perhaps the left will wait until the right is ready for it. There is only one way to change minds, make them need it.

[ita]

https://www.wowt.com/video/2021/12/28/o ... dzi7vWY65w

I couldn't find the referenced list, but if anyone can find it, I would like to see the data.

[Omaha Cowboy]

https://www.wowt.com/video/2021/12/28/o ... dzi7vWY65w

I couldn't find the referenced list, but if anyone can find it, I would like to see the data.

It’s a total BS article and WOWT is irresponsible for giving it any air time.. Naturally, many of the narrow-minded on the Omaha Reddit page are taking it up as gospel..

Line a chicken coop poop cage with that article and move on..a complete waste of time…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[ita]

CENSUS NUMBERS SHOW NEBRASKA’S PANDEMIC POPULATION CHANGE

There’s plenty of reasons people should want to live in Nebraska, and Nebraska’s leaders are now highlighting the state’s strengths and benefits through a new ad campaign entitled, The Good Life Is Calling.

The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed families and businesses to rethink a lot of daily life, including where they want to live and work. Anecdotally, we can find many good examples of people choosing Nebraska as their new home over other states, like this recent piece in the Los Angeles Times.

But it’s also important to look at data to understand if those anecdotes are scaling up and making a measurable impact, or if there are competitive issues Nebraska still needs to address to win over more people.

Recently released U.S. Census Bureau estimates show that while Nebraska’s population increased slightly during the height of the pandemic, the state struggled to stand out among the crowd, while many of our rivals saw a significant influx of new residents.
...
But the impact of these gains was offset by an outmigration of people who previously lived in Nebraska and moved to other states. An estimated net of 3,378 more Nebraskans moved away than people who arrived in Nebraska during this time.

How does this stack up against our immediate neighbors? Colorado leads the pack with a net migration of 21,750, but perhaps surprisingly, Missouri was not far behind, with an impressive increase of 18,604 new residents.

South Dakota was in the middle of the pack with an increase of 6,650. It had similar international migration to Nebraska, but posted a net gain of 5,566 domestic residents.

Like Nebraska, Iowa lost domestic residents, but its international population growth was large enough to put the state in positive territory, with a net of 2,025. Wyoming gained 1,651, almost entirely due to domestic migration, while Kansas lost population at the height of COVID-times, with a net migration decrease of 6,356.

[Omaha Cowboy]

CENSUS NUMBERS SHOW NEBRASKA’S PANDEMIC POPULATION CHANGE

There’s plenty of reasons people should want to live in Nebraska, and Nebraska’s leaders are now highlighting the state’s strengths and benefits through a new ad campaign entitled, The Good Life Is Calling.

The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed families and businesses to rethink a lot of daily life, including where they want to live and work. Anecdotally, we can find many good examples of people choosing Nebraska as their new home over other states, like this recent piece in the Los Angeles Times.

But it’s also important to look at data to understand if those anecdotes are scaling up and making a measurable impact, or if there are competitive issues Nebraska still needs to address to win over more people.

Recently released U.S. Census Bureau estimates show that while Nebraska’s population increased slightly during the height of the pandemic, the state struggled to stand out among the crowd, while many of our rivals saw a significant influx of new residents.
...
But the impact of these gains was offset by an outmigration of people who previously lived in Nebraska and moved to other states. An estimated net of 3,378 more Nebraskans moved away than people who arrived in Nebraska during this time.

How does this stack up against our immediate neighbors? Colorado leads the pack with a net migration of 21,750, but perhaps surprisingly, Missouri was not far behind, with an impressive increase of 18,604 new residents.

South Dakota was in the middle of the pack with an increase of 6,650. It had similar international migration to Nebraska, but posted a net gain of 5,566 domestic residents.

Like Nebraska, Iowa lost domestic residents, but its international population growth was large enough to put the state in positive territory, with a net of 2,025. Wyoming gained 1,651, almost entirely due to domestic migration, while Kansas lost population at the height of COVID-times, with a net migration decrease of 6,356.

One thing to consider, of those estimated net of 3378 Nebraskans who moved away, is geographically, what part of the state lost most of these estimated Nebraskans..If the majority of that number happen to be from the western 1/3rd of the state, then Nebraska’s loss is likely Colorado’s gain..as I’d say most of that group hightailed it out of NE and to CO..and their migration in number would bear that out..

Unfortunately…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Cermak]

Im surprised Kansas can’t grow faster with the most affluent Kansas City suburbs bleeding into the state. Wichita also has had slow growth for sometime now. Nebraska growth has outpaced Kansas in recent years. Even though the states have many similarities.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Kansas is similar to Nebraska in that the most significant population gains are in the eastern spots of each state within their largest metropolitan area components..

The outlier is Wichita, which, imo, should be doing better relative to its growth rate than it currently is..it is an underrated mid-size 645,000 population metro that has some decent urban bones within its core. Diversification in its economy has really held it back the past 40 years…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Cermak]

Right, I have heard Wichita’s economy was/is overly dependent on the aviation industry and needs to diversify more. The city’s economy was hit particularly hard after 9-11 when the aviation industry was in recession.

[Athomsfere]

Kansas is similar to Nebraska in that the most significant population gains are in the eastern spots of each state within their largest metropolitan area components..

The outlier is Wichita, which, imo, should be doing better relative to its growth rate than it currently is..it is an underrated mid-size 645,000 population metro that has some decent urban bones within its core. Diversification in its economy has really held it back the past 40 years…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

IDK, I lived there for more years than I want to admit... And when people ask me about it I always reply: "It's a terrible place, don't ever go there". It's still better than OKC though I guess...

[Omaha Cowboy]

Kansas is similar to Nebraska in that the most significant population gains are in the eastern spots of each state within their largest metropolitan area components..

The outlier is Wichita, which, imo, should be doing better relative to its growth rate than it currently is..it is an underrated mid-size 645,000 population metro that has some decent urban bones within its core. Diversification in its economy has really held it back the past 40 years…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

IDK, I lived there for more years than I want to admit... And when people ask me about it I always reply: "It's a terrible place, don't ever go there". It's still better than OKC though I guess...

Lol yeah. I’ve never lived there, but have spent a lot of time in Wichita over the years (mostly work related). I suppose if I had to live there, I could make it work. I always tell people that I wouldn’t live in a metropolitan area smaller than Omaha if I had the choice..

There are worse places to hang a hat than Wichita or Oklahoma City imo…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[guy4omaha]

There are worse places to hang a hat than Wichita or Oklahoma City imo…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Little Rock would be one IMO.

[Athomsfere]

There are worse places to hang a hat than Wichita or Oklahoma City imo…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Little Rock would be one IMO.

At the risk of getting us all off topic: Little Rock I have managed to avoid so far. Nothing but horror stories from anyone I have know that has lived there.

I did live near North West Arkansas though, and it was meh. Great nature, but Fayetteville, Johnson etc. and that whole metro are not a place I'd recommend for more than visits.

I do go to the Ozarks, but not Branson because also terrible, for the kayaking, camping and nature. Great spots if you don't want to go alpine.

[Omaha Cowboy]

There are worse places to hang a hat than Wichita or Oklahoma City imo…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Little Rock would be one IMO.

At the risk of getting us all off topic: Little Rock I have managed to avoid so far. Nothing but horror stories from anyone I have know that has lived there.

I did live near North West Arkansas though, and it was meh. Great nature, but Fayetteville, Johnson etc. and that whole metro are not a place I'd recommend for more than visits.

I do go to the Ozarks, but not Branson because also terrible, for the kayaking, camping and nature. Great spots if you don't want to go alpine.

To tie this all back to Census numbers, Omaha’s growth is pretty significantly outpacing Wichita or Little Rock.. OKC is growing at a higher rate as is NW Arkansas..

I suspect, Omaha growing at a 12% rate this past decade will see an even more robust growth rate this decade because of its diversified economy and the 8900+ medical related jobs which will be created due to the NEXT plan..

We’ll see…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Cermak]

I was just in NW Arkansas a few months ago. The place is growing like crazy. It’s a different type of metro with no dominant city, about 7 medium to small cities form the metropolitan area of approximately 550k. It’s basically in the Ozarks so it has nice scenery and mild winters. From what I understand it has the best economy in Arkansas. Walmart, JB Hunt and Tyson area all headquartered in the area. Overall I was impressed with it.



Fayetteville the largest city in the metro at 85,000.

[Omaha Cowboy]

It’s definitely the only spot in Arkansas that is experiencing substantial growth. Easily outpacing Little Rock…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Athomsfere]

I was just in NW Arkansas a few months ago. The place is growing like crazy. It’s a different type of metro with no dominant city, about 7 medium to small cities form the metropolitan area of approximately 550k. It’s basically in the Ozarks so it has nice scenery and mild winters. From what I understand it has the best economy in Arkansas. Walmart, JB Hunt and Tyson area all headquartered in the area. Overall I was impressed with it.



Fayetteville the largest city in the metro at 85,000.

For sure it's a nice area to visit. If any one is ever there, I recommend Eureka Springs as a must see too. But yes, the sprawling towns all making up the area make it unlivable for me.

Eureka Springs: It has to be one of the coolest small towns in the country. Go spend a day there.

[Stargazer]

I'm actually surprised Colorado Springs hasn't caught up with Omaha... with the prices of Denver, I would have expected a little exodus south, helping drive their growth. Tucson another metro which has surprised me... they were going gangbusters, but have slowed to nearly Omaha rate of growth the past few years.

[Cermak]

Tucson’s growth has slowed lately, Omaha is actually growing faster than Tucson in the 2020 census. Colorado Springs will most likely pass Omaha someday but it could still be another 20 years or so before that happens.

[skinzfan23]

Actually as far as city populations, Colorado Springs was larger than Omaha in the 2010 census, Omaha just passed them in the 2020 census and Omaha has grown at a faster pace, although not sure if that will continue, but with all the recent development news in Omaha, there is a good chance it will.

[TitosBuritoBarn]

I think growth from Denver is fueling most of Colorado Springs's growth, it's attracting people from outside the region that keeps it in check from exploding. I'm not sure CS really lives up to an outsider's expectations of a Colorado lifestyle. Denver, Boulder, and Fort Collins seem more aligned with that whereas CS seems to be more of a Wichita.

[Louie]

I think growth from Denver is fueling most of Colorado Springs's growth, it's attracting people from outside the region that keeps it in check from exploding. I'm not sure CS really lives up to an outsider's expectations of a Colorado lifestyle. Denver, Boulder, and Fort Collins seem more aligned with that whereas CS seems to be more of a Wichita.

Colorado Springs lacks the personality and character that most people associate with Colorado. And like Wichita, it is pretty dependent on one industry, the Air Force, for its economic wellbeing. A fairly boring city, but it is close to some fantastic outdoor options. Pikes Peak and its lakes, Garden of the Gods, Cheyenne Mountain, Fossil beds, etc.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Let’s talk statistical numbers..

Regarding Tucson AZ, their metro grew at about a 6.5% clip from 2010 to 2020..Omaha’s Metro grew at about a 12% clip during that same time..the population gap between the 2 metros is only 76,000. They are very close in size..if the current growth trends continue, we’ll see Omaha closing the gap even more and potentially passing Tucson within the next 10-20 years..

Now let’s put Colorado Springs into “growth perspective”- Omaha’s metro is currently 212,500 larger. The only way Colorado Springs metro population catches and passes Omaha’s, is IF they maintain their nearly 17% growth rate for 20 years and during that same 20 years, Omaha experiences a ZERO growth rate. Only then, could CS pass Omaha in metro population in TWENTY years.. Now, of course, we know this scenario will NEVER happen. So even at Omaha’s current 12% growth rate vs CS 17%, it would likely take about 80 years with those consistent numbers for Colorado Springs metro to catch Omaha..and sooo many things can happen during that time..The short answer is, NO, CS will not become a larger metropolitan area in terms of population than Omaha, in our lifetimes, our kids lifetimes and our grandkids lifetimes..

Ain’t gonna happen …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Cermak]

You just never know what can happen with population growth. I think back in 1980 Omaha and Austin had roughly the same metro population, Omaha even had a taller building than Austin with the Woodmen. Then boom 40 years later Austin’s metro population is now bigger than Kansas City and they have a huge skyline. With Colorado Springs being so close to Denver I look for them to have rapid growth year after year decade after decade. It may become a more sane alternative to Denver’s sprawl, smog and heavy traffic and see it’s growth accelerate even more as Denver runs out of suitable land to grow.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Comparing Austin with Colorado Springs is not an apples to apples comparison..at all..(not that you’re really doing that though)..

Not getting into too much detail as to the why (Austin is a State Capital, diversified economy, huge tech hub, largest university in the state..of which, Colorado Springs has or is none of those things)..Let’s look at growth numbers- from 1980 to 1990, Austin’s metropolitan population grew by 45%. From 1990 to 2000, it grew by 47%. From 2000-2010, 37%. 2010-2020, 33%.. I’ll just go out on a limb and say Colorado Springs will never, EVER experience crazy, unprecedented growth like that. By the way, neither will Omaha..So while you’re right- Omaha and Austin had nearly identical metropolitan populations in 1980, Austin’s growth was, is and remains a RARE anomaly..

Back to the factual numbers- CS will likely motor in growth in that 15-17% per decade mode. Omaha will likely continue it’s 12% decade pace (although with a much more diversified economy and a boom in jobs in medical related fields, it could get in that 13-15% range)..for how long? Who knows.. We need to factor in long range- 40-80 year growth..Tons of things can happen, generationally..but believing CS will boom even remotely close to Austin just isn’t going to happen..and, imo, neither will it boom to a metropolitan population larger than Omaha..

If it happens though, and we’re all still living to see it, I’ll eat a straw hat …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Athomsfere]

Comparing Austin with Colorado Springs is not an apples to apples comparison..at all..(not that you’re really doing that though)..

Not getting into too much detail as to the why (Austin is a State Capital, diversified economy, huge tech hub, largest university in the state..of which, Colorado Springs has or is none of those things)..Let’s look at growth numbers- from 1980 to 1990, Austin’s metropolitan population grew by 45%. From 1990 to 2000, it grew by 47%. From 2000-2010, 37%. 2010-2020, 33%.. I’ll just go out on a limb and say Colorado Springs will never, EVER experience crazy, unprecedented growth like that. By the way, neither will Omaha..So while you’re right- Omaha and Austin had nearly identical metropolitan populations in 1980, Austin’s growth was, is and remains a RARE anomaly..

Back to the factual numbers- CS will likely motor in growth in that 15-17% per decade mode. Omaha will likely continue it’s 12% decade pace (although with a much more diversified economy and a boom in jobs in medical related fields, it could get in that 13-15% range)..for how long? Who knows.. We need to factor in long range- 40-80 year growth..Tons of things can happen, generationally..but believing CS will boom even remotely close to Austin just isn’t going to happen..and, imo, neither will it boom to a metropolitan population larger than Omaha..

If it happens though, and we’re all still living to see it, I’ll eat a straw hat …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Are we talking MSA here? Because Omaha grew at 18.9% vs CS's 15% for 2010 - 2020.

MSAs were 11.8% and 17%.

Are we accidently mixing our measurements?

[Omaha Cowboy]

Comparing Austin with Colorado Springs is not an apples to apples comparison..at all..(not that you’re really doing that though)..

Not getting into too much detail as to the why (Austin is a State Capital, diversified economy, huge tech hub, largest university in the state..of which, Colorado Springs has or is none of those things)..Let’s look at growth numbers- from 1980 to 1990, Austin’s metropolitan population grew by 45%. From 1990 to 2000, it grew by 47%. From 2000-2010, 37%. 2010-2020, 33%.. I’ll just go out on a limb and say Colorado Springs will never, EVER experience crazy, unprecedented growth like that. By the way, neither will Omaha..So while you’re right- Omaha and Austin had nearly identical metropolitan populations in 1980, Austin’s growth was, is and remains a RARE anomaly..

Back to the factual numbers- CS will likely motor in growth in that 15-17% per decade mode. Omaha will likely continue it’s 12% decade pace (although with a much more diversified economy and a boom in jobs in medical related fields, it could get in that 13-15% range)..for how long? Who knows.. We need to factor in long range- 40-80 year growth..Tons of things can happen, generationally..but believing CS will boom even remotely close to Austin just isn’t going to happen..and, imo, neither will it boom to a metropolitan population larger than Omaha..

If it happens though, and we’re all still living to see it, I’ll eat a straw hat …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Are we talking MSA here? Because Omaha grew at 18.9% vs CS's 15% for 2010 - 2020.

MSAs were 11.8% and 17%.

Are we accidently mixing our measurements?

MSA..

Also, Colorado Springs does not have a CSA designation to compare. So again, MSA- 2010-2020, Omaha grew 11.82 (12%). CS 16.96 (17%)..

Lastly, I don’t know where you’re pulling 18.9% for Omaha CSA growth?- the rate for Omaha in CSA growth was 11.39% 2010-2020- 902,041 in 2010, to 1,004,701 for 2020 according to the official US Census…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Athomsfere]

Are we talking MSA here? Because Omaha grew at 18.9% vs CS's 15% for 2010 - 2020.

MSAs were 11.8% and 17%.

Are we accidently mixing our measurements?
[/quote]

MSA..

Also, Colorado Springs does not have a CSA designation to compare. So again, MSA- 2010-2020, Omaha grew 11.82 (12%). CS 16.96 (17%)..

Lastly, I don’t know where you’re pulling 18.9% for Omaha CSA growth?- the rate for Omaha in CSA growth was 11.39% 2010-2020- 902,041 in 2010, to 1,004,701 for 2020 according to the official US Census…

Ciao..LiO…Peace
[/quote]

Those were the Omaha-Council Bluffs MSA numbers per Wikipedia.

I'll trust your numbers though, as I presume you are using the official Census numbers.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Yes- my numbers are from Official 2020 US Census data..I would not put much trust in figures you see in Wikipedia…

Ciao..LiO…Peace