2018 Severe Weather Thread

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:41 am

So I'm observing what I suppose would be an outflow boundary that moved west through town a short time ago. Would that be the cause of the storms out west weakening?

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:55 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:41 am So I'm observing what I suppose would be an outflow boundary that moved west through town a short time ago. Would that be the cause of the storms out west weakening?

Yeah, not 100% sure what you saw unless you happened to get a screenshot. I do know the storms in the Omaha area last night struggled to maintain their strength due to a lack of sufficient wind shear (not uncommon this time of year)

Post by **Brad** » Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:55 am

Couple from TD Ameritrade Park Omaha tonight.

1.

2.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:34 am

Those are awesome pics Brad.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:51 am

Excellent pics indeed. Great job Brad

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Jun 26, 2018 4:31 am

Over/under 1 more significant rain event before August 1st. What do you take?

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Tue Jun 26, 2018 1:29 pm

Great cloud shots!

Post by **Brad** » Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:28 pm

Thanks Guys!

Busguy2010 wrote: Tue Jun 26, 2018 4:31 am Over/under 1 more significant rain event before August 1st. What do you take?

They are saying we could get a decent rain this saturday 6/30.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Jun 26, 2018 9:45 pm

Brad wrote: Tue Jun 26, 2018 2:28 pm Thanks Guys!

Busguy2010 wrote: Tue Jun 26, 2018 4:31 am Over/under 1 more significant rain event before August 1st. What do you take?
They are saying we could get a decent rain this saturday 6/30.

So do I have an over?

BTW I'm considering significant as in widespread, at least a Douglas county along with a neighboring county getting at least somewhere around .75", no localized popcorn cells that produce small downpours.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:28 pm

Here are the latest precipitation totals based on the 00z GFS forecast model for up until 6am this coming Sunday. Typically these totals are over done some - and currently we are on the far western edge of the area of heaviest precip (right now it shows in excess of 2" of rain in Omaha itself). That being said, with the GFS, often things tend to trend further west as we get closer (so don't be surprised if we end up less "on the edge"). Personally I'm thinking we will have at least 1 or 2 more heavy rainfall events including the Omaha area prior to August 1st...

RockHarbor · Post by **RockHarbor** » Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:05 am

I love those Omaha ballpark & storm photos!! Thanks for posting. Earlier this week, I saw a video of a tornado touching down in Southern Idaho. I also just found a picture of a tornado touching down on Casper Mountain, just south of Casper, WY. I also saw a video years ago of a funnel actually touching the earth, moving up & down over mountains. I think: If a tornado can touch down on a mountain, it can touch down anywhere. http://media.graytvinc.com/images/810*4 ... nado+2.jpg

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Jun 28, 2018 6:11 am

stormchaser wrote: Wed Jun 27, 2018 1:28 pm Here are the latest precipitation totals based on the 00z GFS forecast model for up until 6am this coming Sunday. Typically these totals are over done some - and currently we are on the far western edge of the area of heaviest precip (right now it shows in excess of 2" of rain in Omaha itself). That being said, with the GFS, often things tend to trend further west as we get closer (so don't be surprised if we end up less "on the edge"). Personally I'm thinking we will have at least 1 or 2 more heavy rainfall events including the Omaha area prior to August 1st...

I doubt we will get an inch of rain Saturday. I'm just going based off of recent shortcomings. This year has generally been relatively quiet. If I'm wrong, then that would be great, but this time of year I start to check out of hoping for good amounts of rain. With tongue in cheek, Bill said we might get a brief downpour around noon, but I doubt it. NWS says 80% chance of rain Saturday, but I'll hold my doubts because the weather around here has been spotty this year.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jun 29, 2018 1:06 pm

Really starting to think tomorrow (Saturday) is going to be a fairly significant severe weather day across portions of eastern NE/western IA before things transition into more of a heavy rain event. A few tornadoes - especially early on as storms first develop and will likely be supercellular in the Grand Island, York, Columbus area and then eventually as possibly a damaging wind event.

Based on the latest model guidance - still looking like a fairly large area of eastern NE and western IA will see 1"-2"+ of rain, especially in far southeastern NE. Only time will tell though obviously.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Jun 29, 2018 5:41 pm

The NWS really upped the predicted dosage of rain between last night and today. Earlier in the week it looked like another one of those big talk, no walk systems. Now that it's much closer, it looks more promising. Will tomorrow be the day the sirens are put to use? Would be exciting to see something menacing, of course I don't want to see a tornado hit town.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Jun 29, 2018 11:31 pm

I really need to not check the forecast every couple hours. It changes so much every time, now they're saying 2.14" of rain vs about 1.5 yesterday. The way they keep increasing that prediction is exciting, yet they still don't really know, so I'm just not going to check again until it happens.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Jun 30, 2018 2:20 pm

Looks like the SPC has gone with an "enhance risk" of severe weather in the local area today. Mostly a threat for damaging wind and hail. However, an east/west boundary will likely be in the Omaha area this afternoon. As storms first fire, they will likely be supercellular with large (possibly baseball size hail) with a potential tornado risk, especially if a storm embeds on that boundary (and starts moving almost straight east or even possibly southeasterly) which will enhance low level helicity and consequently increase the tornado threat.

Long story short, people in the Omaha area need to pay close attention later this afternoon into this evening - especially if that boundary ends up right over Omaha...

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:56 pm

Shoot, this is looking like it could be the most powerful event this year.

We may well set a new record rainfall for this day. The current record is 2.09" in 1878.

Post by **Brad** » Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:28 am

After leaving Werner Park tonight, I caught this shelf cloud over Walnut Creek Lake. Fishing must have been darn good...

1.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:32 am

The rain has been great today. Eppley has to be an isolated spot that didn't get a whole lot. As of right now they're reporting only .37" of rain. Where I'm at, I got that much with the first wave, let alone what came after that and what is still to come. I'm eager to check my rain gauge in the morning.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Sun Jul 01, 2018 9:02 am

The Tribute to Independence at Stinson Park was cancelled today to the chagrin of many but from 6:30 till 7:15 Aksarben Village was in a Monsoon. I am sure Pride was glad they were in Baxter instead of Stinson Park this year.

Post by **Brad** » Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:28 pm

90th and Center we got 0.70” yesterday a d 0.22” so far today.

Omababe · Post by **Omababe** » Sun Jul 01, 2018 8:29 pm

The north Ameristar parking lot is now a swimming pool!

RockHarbor · Post by **RockHarbor** » Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:18 pm

Not sure if all has seen this. This actually has video footage of Omaha's tornado of 1975.

Everyone talks about how black the sky was that afternoon -- including a comment below the video. One guy I talked to, though, who lived near 82nd & Blondo, says he doesn't remember it that dark & black. I almost wanted to say: "Stop. Don't tell me anymore..." (Lol) Anyways, if I could go back into history on one particular day, I think I would choose to be in Omaha, NE on May 6th, 1975.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:32 pm

RockHarbor wrote: Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:18 pm Not sure if all has seen this. This actually has video footage of Omaha's tornado of 1975.

Everyone talks about how black the sky was that afternoon -- including a comment below the video. One guy I talked to, though, who lived near 82nd & Blondo, says he doesn't remember it that dark & black. I almost wanted to say: "Stop. Don't tell me anymore..." (Lol) Anyways, if I could go back into history on one particular day, I think I would choose to be in Omaha, NE on May 6th, 1975.

That link is taking me to a different video. Not sure if its just me or if other people also are being redirected.

daveoma · Post by **daveoma** » Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:11 am

RockHarbor wrote: Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:18 pm Not sure if all has seen this. This actually has video footage of Omaha's tornado of 1975.

Everyone talks about how black the sky was that afternoon -- including a comment below the video. One guy I talked to, though, who lived near 82nd & Blondo, says he doesn't remember it that dark & black. I almost wanted to say: "Stop. Don't tell me anymore..." (Lol) Anyways, if I could go back into history on one particular day, I think I would choose to be in Omaha, NE on May 6th, 1975.

That link is to another video. Maybe update the link?

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:54 pm

Here is a real good video regarding the Omaha tornado from May 6th, 1975.. For the record, I was 13 years old and remember that storm event like it was yesterday. My Aunt’s house in Westgate was completely destroyed and her and my cousins rode out the storm in a tub in their downstairs bathroom. Thank the Lord they were not hurt. I’ll never forget what the destruction looked like. It was like bombs exploded over pasts of the Westgate neighborhood..

The YouTube link:

[youtube][/youtube]

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:14 pm

Here is another video that has the May 6th, 1975 Tornado footage. Make sure to watch part 2 as well..

[youtube][/youtube]

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:30 pm

Here is one last video I’ll share..Actually a very good documentary produced by WOWT just 3 years ago on the 40th anniversary of the May 6th 1975 tornado-

[youtube][/youtube]

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:41 pm

With that freak storm on the 4th, that put us at two significant rainfall events since I asked what everyone else thought we'd get before August. Two was the most I thought we'd see, but now, Friday into Saturday MAY turn out to be another rainer. NWS is currently predicting .97" of rain through the whole event. But still, a couple to a few days out, I don't take it too seriously.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jul 13, 2018 3:49 pm

Yep, looking like more flash flooding possible tonight with 1-2"+ of rain in the area

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:29 pm

We have a BEAUTIFUL stretch ahead of us this week. Highs in the low to mid 80's through the end of the week, but I'm looking to enjoy Monday the most... A high of 85, but the real significance will be the dew point of 60! 60 in July! That's great!

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:41 pm

Oh, and how much rain did yall get yesterday. Eppley is reporting only .09, but I know I got way more than that. Rain gauge wasn't set up.

zippy · Post by **zippy** » Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:53 pm

0.75 inches at 144th and Center

Post by **Brad** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:02 am

Busguy2010 wrote: Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:41 pm Oh, and how much rain did yall get yesterday. Eppley is reporting only .09, but I know I got way more than that. Rain gauge wasn't set up.

zippy wrote: Sun Jul 15, 2018 2:53 pm 0.75 inches at 144th and Center

A friend at 156 and Pacific got right at 1 inch
A friend in Papillion got a trace
Near 90th and Center, I got 0.25 inches

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:43 pm

Well, we didn’t get the gulley wash this past weekend that many predicted..

I do see that this week,Wednesday into Thursday, the Omaha area could get up to 2 inches of rain..

Anywho, I’m just glad with all this rain, I have yet to turn on a water sprinkler for my front or back yard. The grass is green and lush. Just keep that rainwater coming

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:45 pm

According to the W-H, Eastern Nebraska (including metro Omaha and Lincoln) is under a slight risk for severe weather developing later this afternoon into the evening.. For anyone tracking this “risk” factor, do you have any more detail updates on severe storm potential for later today?...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:20 pm

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:45 pm According to the W-H, Eastern Nebraska (including metro Omaha and Lincoln) is under a slight risk for severe weather developing later this afternoon into the evening.. For anyone tracking this “risk” factor, do you have any more detail updates on severe storm potential for later today?...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Nah, this one kinda just came up out of the blue today. I saw earlier in the week there was a slight chance of rain, but nothing that compared to the last two rains. All I heard was they'll develop over western Iowa and could potentially build a little farther west enough to include us.
Don't have any details on direction or available energy or anything like that. I'll just wait for the radar to speak up.

Dang, were darn near in the enhanced area, wow that really snuck up on me.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:37 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:20 pmAll I heard was they'll develop over western Iowa and could potentially build a little farther west enough to include us.

That was obviously wrong. They're going to develop northwest of here and move southeast toward us. Could be pretty strong after midnight I guess.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:50 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Wed Jul 18, 2018 10:37 pm
Busguy2010 wrote: Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:20 pmAll I heard was they'll develop over western Iowa and could potentially build a little farther west enough to include us.
That was obviously wrong. They're going to develop northwest of here and move southeast toward us. Could be pretty strong after midnight I guess.

Thanks for the update. You're right. This development did kind of creep up on us...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Brad** » Thu Jul 19, 2018 3:55 am

I guy I know got a nice photo out in the sandhills tonight.