2018 Severe Weather Thread

[stormchaser]

Just a heads up, the 12z forecast models are starting to trend north with everything and now shows accumulating snow hitting Omaha tomorrow (at least on the 3km NAM it does). Probably 2-4 inches of snow locally if this run verifies anyway (I know nobody wants to hear this, hopefully it changes).

[stormchaser]

Pretty good chance tomorrow morning's commute is going to be a rough one. Low temps tonight are supposed to get below freezing. That means all surfaces/roads that are now damp from the snow will freeze so it's probably going to be icy late tonight and early tomorrow morning before it warms up some...

[Coyote]

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[Coyote]

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[Coyote]

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[Padre]

They are saying some people may not have power until Monday night.

[Coyote]

Numbers went up this hour:

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[Coyote]

2300 report is looking better...

[Coyote]

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[Louie]

Big improvement overnight.

[Brad]

Our Power came back on at 12:45am. Lost a giant limb off our silver maple too.

[skinzfan23]

Stupid question, but when you lose power, does a gas furnace or oven still work?

[nebugeater]

Stupid question, but when you lose power, does a gas furnace or oven still work?

No for the furnace. It needs power to run the fan, ignition if there in not a pilot light, and the controls.

The same for the stove except for the fan unless it is REALLY old and just a manual valve for gas to a burner but they will not be in any homes at this point.

[Coyote]

Some poor souls are still without power:

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[Coyote]

Omaha's zoo wants your broken branches to feed its elephants

[Omaha Cowboy]

I was one of those who lost power Sunday- For 8 hours total. From just after 12 noon to just after 8pm. Then overnight, my power went out again at 3am until finally restored at 5:30am. A bummer of a Sunday for the most part...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[RockHarbor]

Tornadoes already in states like Mississippi. I think today is the first day I can sense "spring in the air." I wonder if it will be an active season? The tornado season is right around the corner.... Instead of "wish you were here", it's "wish I was there."

[nebugeater]

Tornadoes already in states like Mississippi. I think today is the first day I can sense "spring in the air." I wonder if it will be an active season? The tornado season is right around the corner.... Instead of "wish you were here", it's "wish I was there."

If on Feb 24 you sensed Spring was in the Air you DEFINITELY were not in Nebraska.

[RockHarbor]

Tornadoes already in states like Mississippi. I think today is the first day I can sense "spring in the air." I wonder if it will be an active season? The tornado season is right around the corner.... Instead of "wish you were here", it's "wish I was there."

If on Feb 24 you sensed Spring was in the Air you DEFINITELY were not in Nebraska.

Of course Im not there. I wouldnt lie about that. I feel spring again today here... Yet, winds are picking up.

[Busguy2010]

We won't get a whiff of spring here for at least another two weeks. Though, I have noted the angle of the sun is visibly higher, so that is an indicator that spring is right around the corner. Also, a calendar is useful, too.

[RockHarbor]

We won't get a whiff of spring here for at least another two weeks. Though, I have noted the angle of the sun is visibly higher, so that is an indicator that spring is right around the corner. Also, a calendar is useful, too.

Well, I can recall times in Omaha I got a whiff of spring in late, late Feb -- or by March 1st. So, you just never know. We definitely feel it here -- and people agree with me. You're right; I felt the globe must have turned just enough to usher in the change in the air. The light is a tiny bit different.

[Uffda]

Need to make it to the end of next week.....

[Busguy2010]

Well, I can recall times in Omaha I got a whiff of spring in late, late Feb -- or by March 1st. So, you just never know.

I understand this. I too recall late February inclinations and warm early springs. I also recall freezes and snow up to the beginning of May.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Well, I can recall times in Omaha I got a whiff of spring in late, late Feb -- or by March 1st. So, you just never know.

I understand this. I too recall late February inclinations and warm early springs. I also recall freezes and snow up to the beginning of May.

In any case, you got your wish- an over abundance of a snowy, slick, plan altering Winter. Hope you’re happy ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[RockHarbor]

I just checked Omaha weather this morning, due to the indication it was still very cold there. Boy, it still is very cold. I had no idea... (It seems cold most places this year. Even Maui recently got snow on the island's mountaintops.) A harsh winter could lead to an active tornado season. I just watched "Into The Storm" recently. Imo, thats the best movie as far as accurate & detailed tornado special effects go. "Twister" was a better movie overall, but I dont think the effects in "Twister" really show the frightening mayhem that occurs when the tail of a twister passes through -- nature's most violent storm. "Into The Storm" is better about capturing that element more accurately, imo.

[Busguy2010]

In any case, you got your wish- an over abundance of a snowy, slick, plan altering Winter. Hope you’re happy ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I'm not disappointed! This is what winter is supposed to be, and that blizzard we had was incredible! I couldn't believe how thoroughly it shut the city down Saturday night, and these roads still aren't clear. It was definitely a punch in the mouth and a sight to see. That was the most incredible winter storm I can remember since at least 2009 or 2010.

But, it is getting a bit late for too many more winter storms, so I am about ready for it to show signs of switching over. I can handle one more sizable snow (like 2-4"), but any more than that and I'll be with you, over it. I think we should expect at least one more winter storm, and we should be aware of the possibility of a big snow all the way into April.

[Omaha Cowboy]

In any case, you got your wish- an over abundance of a snowy, slick, plan altering Winter. Hope you’re happy ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

I'm not disappointed! This is what winter is supposed to be, and that blizzard we had was incredible! I couldn't believe how thoroughly it shut the city down Saturday night, and these roads still aren't clear. It was definitely a punch in the mouth and a sight to see. That was the most incredible winter storm I can remember since at least 2009 or 2010.

I’ll give you, maybe, what an extreme winter is supposed to be. The blizzard was horrible and more than a nusaince.. It also put people’s lives at risk. I absolutely hated it and hate winter as you already know. This has definitely been the absolute worst, downer of a winter Omaha has seen in 10 years.. And I hope we don’t see another one like it in my lifetime..

On to SPRING already ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[iamjacobm]

This winter has really sucked. I don't mind snow, but what I really love about winter is the time after it snows and its 25 and sunny and everything is melting and its comfortable out. This year has just been snow, brutal cold, snow, brutal cold, snow, brutal cold.

All I want is a day to thaw out and maybe open a window for an hour or two.

[RockHarbor]

Lol... Has winter been that awful back there this year? It sounds like the normal winter weather I experienced growing up. Omaha has been basically spoiled for years with this "climate change" -- or whatever it is. (The schools have closed with 3-4 inches of snow for years now. That was unheard of growing up.) Yet, I remember a super frigid cold spell in winter in 2014, and that was the year that major hailstorm hit Blair, NE in the summer following. I also remember the winter of 2008 or 2009. It snowed every other day that winter -- it seems. And, there was a tornadic spring. I remember tornado sirens sounding about mid March with black/green clouds hovering over Millard.

[iamjacobm]

Tied the record for Dec-Feb snowfall so an objectively abnormal three months since records have been kept.

[Busguy2010]

Nobody remembers how mild it was from mid December to mid January? So as far as I recall, we must have mostly reached the record over the last 6 weeks.

In fact I counted it up to see if my feeling was correct, we've gotten 37.5" since January 12th. We got 5.3" on the 12th that broke seal.

I was genuinely concerned by how warm it was to start the season, but mother nature certainly has made up for it. Now, I wonder if because of that, we're in for a full 3 months of winter starting on the 12th of January.

Maybe winter will hold on through mid April since fall held on through mid January.

[Busguy2010]

Lol... Has winter been that awful back there this year? It sounds like the normal winter weather I experienced growing up. Omaha has been basically spoiled for years with this "climate change" -- or whatever it is. (The schools have closed with 3-4 inches of snow for years now. That was unheard of growing up.) Yet, I remember a super frigid cold spell in winter in 2014, and that was the year that major hailstorm hit Blair, NE in the summer following. I also remember the winter of 2008 or 2009. It snowed every other day that winter -- it seems. And, there was a tornadic spring. I remember tornado sirens sounding about mid March with black/green clouds hovering over Millard.

I do share the feeling that this spring will be an active one. That's purely just a feeling though. Maybe someone with better knowledge of long term weather patterns can tell us what kind of spring it's "supposed" to be.

I don't remember the sirens going off for weather in 2018, and I seem to recall the prior winter being a yawner as well. So maybe there is a "like winter like spring" thing going on. I'll have to start keeping note of that to see if it holds true.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Winter can hold on until February 27th and then go away.. Far FAR away.. And not return until 2065.. As far as I’m concerned...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[RockHarbor]

Lol... Has winter been that awful back there this year? It sounds like the normal winter weather I experienced growing up. Omaha has been basically spoiled for years with this "climate change" -- or whatever it is. (The schools have closed with 3-4 inches of snow for years now. That was unheard of growing up.) Yet, I remember a super frigid cold spell in winter in 2014, and that was the year that major hailstorm hit Blair, NE in the summer following. I also remember the winter of 2008 or 2009. It snowed every other day that winter -- it seems. And, there was a tornadic spring. I remember tornado sirens sounding about mid March with black/green clouds hovering over Millard.

I do share the feeling that this spring will be an active one. That's purely just a feeling though. Maybe someone with better knowledge of long term weather patterns can tell us what kind of spring it's "supposed" to be.

I don't remember the sirens going off for weather in 2018, and I seem to recall the prior winter being a yawner as well. So maybe there is a "like winter like spring" thing going on. I'll have to start keeping note of that to see if it holds true.

Well, I guess the first time I wondered if there was a connection was learning Omaha's legendary Blizzard of 1975 happened in the long, severe winter before Omaha's legendary spring Tornado of 1975. (March 27, 1975 also involved a small tornado hitting the Stony Brook section of Millard. The May 6, 1975 main event involved a tornadic break in NE & SD, but the maxi tornado was the one that hit Omaha.) Also, the Omaha Tornado of 1913's wreckage in the aftermath was eventually covered in snow not too long after the tornado -- so it might have been a harsh winter, too, that year. Tornadoes also form, of course, with cold clashing w/ warm air, which is the fuel for supercell thunderstorms. If there isnt enough clashing going on with the warming spring, because there isnt enough winter chill around, then Im not sure how many tornadoes will even form. Also, some fierce tornadic spring weather can happen in Omaha when it gets muggy & hot before the cold front comes through, while its snowing out in Chadron & Scottsbluff on the backside of the cold front.

However, there have been plenty of cold winters w/out a strong tornadic season following, I'm sure, though. So, who knows...

Omaha 1975 Tornado video:

The 1990 Heston, KS event.


The thing that frustrates me about tornadoes is that the books don't seem to say much more about how they form, since the books I read as a kid. Some things about them still remain a mystery. In fact, they ultimately say tornadoes are a mystery ultimately, because although they know what "ingredients go into the secret recipe" to form a tornado, they still can't always predict accurately when one will happen. Some storms can produce them, and then another storm with identical variables don't produce one at all. Sometimes, tornado sirens sound and catch everybody off guard, as even the weathermen don't always predict when a funnel will actually form, so no "tornado watch" even exists when a surprising funnel descends. (That happened with the Boys Town tornado of 2016.)

So, I'm wondering what the "kicker" really is? Maybe there are multiple "kickers" that can jump start one? Meteorology happens on the molecular level, so maybe we'll never be able to crack the equation, really -- because the equation is too big. Maybe a lot of equations exist for tornado, instead of pinning down one equation.

The thing I get confused about is some books act like a tornado is a spinning vortex of air on a horizontal orientation way up in the clouds, that eventually starts tilting, then goes vertical. Yet, other books act like that isn't the case at all. I'm not sure I believe a tornado really is such a thing.
Something about that theory seems odd to me. Yet, I'm no scientist or meteorologist.

I'm also wondering if the whirling tornado stops whirling when the top of the tornado meets the base of the thunderhead? Or, does the whirling column of air extend way, way up into the 60,000+ foot storm tower?

This video shows how FRIGHTENING a strong tornado really is, when it hits a house. This video courtesy of an exterior bank camera.

[RockHarbor]

This is how a Bing "How do tornadoes form?" question search lays the answer out. It's this simple?

How Tornadoes Form

1) Before thunderstorms develop, winds change direction and increase in speed with altitude .

2) Rising air within the thunderstorm updraft tilts the rotating air from horizontal to vertical.

3) An area of rotation, 2-6 miles wide, now extends through much of the storm.

That #3 answers one of my questions. I dont think the books I read as a kid talked about the tornado forming because of this reason. Maybe this is a new breakthrough?

[Cermak]

This has been a long winter, if I remember we had snow on a Sunday in Early November or it might of been October, I remember we still had some leaves on the trees so it was very early. And we had a snowstorm the first week of December. Then we hit a mild stretch that lasted for maybe a month including a mild and dry Christmas. Except for the first week of January and Super bowl weekend, January and February have been miserable with the polar vortex and many smaller snowstorms maybe 2-5 inches each time . And then the blizzard last weekend was the ultimate punch in the mouth. To make things even worse the avg high now is about 40 and we can’t even get above freezing. I’m ready for spring. Easily the worst winter in 10 years.

[RockHarbor]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, buuuuuut.... I read online that around March 3-4, most of the country will be flooded with super cold air again.

[Cermak]

Sunday’s high supposed to be just single digits, extremely cold for this time of year. We need to shake this snow or the whole month of March could be well below avg.

[GetUrban]

On a positive note....the closer we get to June, the more dramatic the warm-up will be. Hopefully not too dramatic. The higher sun angle and warm air working its way back in will eventually prevail.

[RockHarbor]

All this cold & snow does sound so tiring, but I bet with the warming, as GetUrban mentioned, its gonna be "Summer Of The Twisters" there in Omaha this year (instead of "Night of the Twisters" in Grand Island). Jealous -- but tryin' not to show it.