Omaha Eppley Airfield - DISCUSSION

[Uffda]

I saw this article yesterday - not sure effect on Eppley

Airlines Cancel Boeing Max Flights Into November; Holiday Flights Could Be Next

[ScrattyB]

I saw this article yesterday - not sure effect on Eppley

Airlines Cancel Boeing Max Flights Into November; Holiday Flights Could Be Next

I'm sticking with my guns.
The MAX grounding has no effect on Eppley's numbers. I don't know why it would.

If I need to go to LAX, then I'm going to LAX. It might just require a connection now.
High ticket prices and major disasters will change the numbers. A bad economic situation will change the numbers.

[Bob from Omaha]

There are a number of things that could affect numbers. Nuke would know more regarding frequency, scheduled seats, etc.
Lincoln is up for the year. That could have a small affect.
Less Southwest flights, less Frontier flights, also could affect.
heck, for what it's worth ConAgra's punk moved the execs to Chicago. Less passengers from them.
Just guesses...

[joleo]

I saw this article yesterday - not sure effect on Eppley

Airlines Cancel Boeing Max Flights Into November; Holiday Flights Could Be Next

I'm sticking with my guns.
The MAX grounding has no effect on Eppley's numbers. I don't know why it would.

If I need to go to LAX, then I'm going to LAX. It might just require a connection now.
High ticket prices and major disasters will change the numbers. A bad economic situation will change the numbers.

This is more true in January when loads are not as full. This isn't true at all in June. June Eppley flights are basically going out full, almost all of them! The ones that are not are on off peak days at weird times.

When you have 4-5 less daily flights between Frontier and Southwest, that is direct reduced passengers. For example, here from Des Moines, a neighbor family of 4 needed to go to a wedding in June in Reno, flights were between $800-$1000, they looked for several months but decided not to go. They had a limit of $500 per person they were thinking. If flights were not plum full and bookings were weaker, the price would have been cheaper and that family would have taken the trip.

When flights are full, prices go up and it drives people not to make the trip, drive to the destination, or find an alternative airport. This might not be true for higher income people and most business travelers but true for some business travelers! Even business travel, my client would let me fly to Madison, WI if less than $400 roundtrip, if more than $400, I'm required to drive. Basically during the summer months, I'm forced to drive because planes are super full and expensive, in the winter, I can fly because tickets are much cheaper and planes are not as full.

[ScrattyB]

So you're saying all that is because of the MAX grounding?

[Bob from Omaha]

A few observations:

That Lincoln is up so much is in part due to their being down so far.

Des Moines in one of the airports around the country that is actually growing like a weed and continuing that growth this year. Their growth is real, not a result of having to come back from a huge decline.

Is it possible that Omaha has plateaued? Or could it be that airlines are dropping routes, frequencies, and in the case of some, is it due to 737 Max, thus reducing available seats?

[Bearcat06]

1.9% up still for the year.
Air Canada up for June
We know why Frontier is down so much.

Still hanging in at up nearly 2.0% after a record 2018..

And Air Canada was actually up for June.. Perhaps rumors of their demise at OMA have been a bit exaggerated, lol..

In any case, still optimistic OMA will finish 2019 with a plus % gain over 2018...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

With June's numbers I'm projecting out to a 1.73% increase this year vs 2018 with a total pax load of 5,130,609.

According to numbers I foundfrom the past 2 years, June was actually the lowest pax load month between May-Aug so hopefully that trend will continue and the June decrease will just be a blip on the year.

Allegiant with almost a 9% increase YTD. Are they picking up some of Frontier's load or just another carrier making up for SWA's low cost fares?

[Bearcat06]

A few observations:

That Lincoln is up so much is in part due to their being down so far.

Des Moines in one of the airports around the country that is actually growing like a weed and continuing that growth this year. Their growth is real, not a result of having to come back from a huge decline.

Is it possible that Omaha has plateaued? Or could it be that airlines are dropping routes, frequencies, and in the case of some, is it due to 737 Max, thus reducing available seats?

I would say it would be difficult to keep up with the pace OMA had over the last couple years. Maybe a plateau has been reached, maybe routes/times, maybe pricing? There are likely multiple criteria at play.

It does appear that SWA doesn't make up near the volume (absent in LNK and minimal in DSM) that it does in OMA. And we all know that SWA hasn't been helping this year.

Based on the OMA website info today it looks like roughly 76% of flights in a given day depart before 5 pm. Arrivals are at about 51% before 5pm, 19% between 5 and 7:30pm and 40% between 8:30pm and 12:05 am (80% of that between 10pm and 12:05am ). Maybe times have something to do with it, though I can't imagine that's changed much over the years.

I had a last-minute minute flight I had to take to DFW last week and American's pricing from MCI was $200 cheaper per ticket for the same departure time as OMA. I spent $35 in gas and drove to KC and back due to the ticket price alone. I know MCI does more traffic, but that place is a dump. I couldn't believe OMA was that much more expensive.

Also, we don't know the economics for the metro area this year. Who knows if Omaha is growing the population? Maybe people didn't have as much dispensable income? Maybe the spring flooding hurt?

Hopefully we don't get stuck in remodel purgatory though. MCI is starting a demolition/remodel as we speak so they will have a brand new facility about the same time that OMA could potentially be completing a remodel of their own (if early timetables are to be trusted).

[Omaha Cowboy]

I think we may be over analyzing the reason(s) as to why, for June, OMA didn’t experience a passenger traffic increase..

I’ve said this before in a post here about a month ago, 2018 was a record year.. I simply think there is a traffic timetable to digest that growth..before similar growth can be attained onward and upward.. 2019 is still running about 2% ahead of 2018’s record pace.. So that’s positive..

As it relates to growing in population, yes, the Omaha metro is experiencing healthy growth. The latest US Cenus estimates released in April, indicate Omaha added 10,000 residents to its metro population over the past year. And has added 78,000 residents since 2010 (through 2018)..

So Omaha is growing at a healthy pace.. as is our air service...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Bearcat06]

I think we may be over analyzing the reason(s) as to why, for June, OMA didn’t experience a passenger traffic increase..

Topics are rarely overanalyzed in this forum.

[buildomaha]

I don’t think growth in the metro is an issue. Has any or else noticed the huge amounts of construction all across the city, SO many out of state license plates lately, traffic has noticeably increased within the past year or two for sure. I have a feeling we will be pleasantly surprised with our 2020 census numbers.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I don’t think growth in the metro is an issue. Has any or else noticed the huge amounts of construction all across the city, SO many out of state license plates lately, traffic has noticeably increased within the past year or two for sure. I have a feeling we will be pleasantly surprised with our 2020 census numbers.

Completely agree..

As the metro grows, so will OMA passenger traffic and the need for more variety in non stop flight options. The new parking garage is about to open..

Everything will be fine at Eppley ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Garrett]

Southwest seems to be struggling all over the place because of the 737 Max. They’re currently expecting to end the year with a 1-2% nationwide contraction of capacity compared to their initial expectations for 5% expansion, won’t fly the Max until January at the earliest, and they’re pulling out of Newark.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/25/southwe ... nding.html

[NEDodger]

Just returned from Canada on the Toronto/Omaha flights and thought I would present some thoughts:

- The flight out had I believe 50 of 52 seats taken.
- The flight in had it looked like about 38 of 52 seats taken.
- Customs/Immigration both ways was super smooth and very quick.
- It’s a bit of a walk from the gate in Toronto, as it appears that terminal is under renovation? Only negative experience travel-wise.

We went to Toronto, Niagara Falls, Ottawa and Montreal on this trip. I highly, highly recommend this flight. If you’ve never been to Europe, this is a much more affordable taste of what that’s like. Toronto was incredible - very similar to Chicago, in terms of things to do. Niagara Falls was an easy 2 hour bus tour ride away. I’m not a nature guy at all but was blown away by that.

Bottom line, encourage and endorse this trip - we would be fools to lose this line. It would be amazing for Air Canada to add a Montreal or Vancouver route.

[joleo]

Just returned from Canada on the Toronto/Omaha flights and thought I would present some thoughts:

- The flight out had I believe 50 of 52 seats taken.
- The flight in had it looked like about 38 of 52 seats taken.
- Customs/Immigration both ways was super smooth and very quick.
- It’s a bit of a walk from the gate in Toronto, as it appears that terminal is under renovation? Only negative experience travel-wise.

We went to Toronto, Niagara Falls, Ottawa and Montreal on this trip. I highly, highly recommend this flight. If you’ve never been to Europe, this is a much more affordable taste of what that’s like. Toronto was incredible - very similar to Chicago, in terms of things to do. Niagara Falls was an easy 2 hour bus tour ride away. I’m not a nature guy at all but was blown away by that.

Bottom line, encourage and endorse this trip - we would be fools to lose this line. It would be amazing for Air Canada to add a Montreal or Vancouver route.

Thanks for the trip report! Note, the Air Canada CRJ plane only holds 50 seats, not 52. I echo everything else you said from my trip in June.

[ita]

Just returned from Canada on the Toronto/Omaha flights and thought I would present some thoughts:

- The flight out had I believe 50 of 52 seats taken.
- The flight in had it looked like about 38 of 52 seats taken.
- Customs/Immigration both ways was super smooth and very quick.
- It’s a bit of a walk from the gate in Toronto, as it appears that terminal is under renovation? Only negative experience travel-wise.

We went to Toronto, Niagara Falls, Ottawa and Montreal on this trip. I highly, highly recommend this flight. If you’ve never been to Europe, this is a much more affordable taste of what that’s like. Toronto was incredible - very similar to Chicago, in terms of things to do. Niagara Falls was an easy 2 hour bus tour ride away. I’m not a nature guy at all but was blown away by that.

Bottom line, encourage and endorse this trip - we would be fools to lose this line. It would be amazing for Air Canada to add a Montreal or Vancouver route.

Appreciate the insight. Although our sole international flight thus far isn't as 'sexy' as other possible international destinations, like Cancun, the Bahamas, or Europe, Toronto is a great place to have direct flights to. In addition to it being a cultural epicenter for Canada, it is home to several large (and small) institutions, particularly in banking and finance. From an economic development standpoint, there is a lot of potential in creating greater connections with Canada's business capitol.

[joleo]

Toronto to Omaha was pulled from the Air Canada website after October 5th. It appears like it is being dropped.

Super sad they didn't get the United codeshare placed onto this flight! I'm 90% certain this would have been a success with the code share just like every other Air Canada-USA flight is with a the code share.

Note Air Canada had 4 transborder cities they added that didn't have the United codeshare flight numbers, all 4 were dropped (OMA the last). I think this says it all right there, end of story.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Thanks for the speculative intel on Air Canada. But I’ll wait for an official confirmation they’re leaving OMA before I comment specifically on that happenstance..

For now, they’re still alive and well at OMA...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Ryan Air]

Air Canada has appeared to drop the route in October. They are merging AC express flights to Jazz it seems. They also will be rid of the CRJ200. Saw this in their fleet update awhile ago and was wondering how the Air Georgian fold-up/Air Canada Jazz news, combined with the planned removal of the CRJ200, would effect the OMA route. Guess we know now.

[daveoma]

Do we know if they also cancelled the flights between Toronto and Des Moines?

[Ryan Air]

Do we know if they also cancelled the flights between Toronto and Des Moines?

Air Canada doesn’t fly to DSM, nor do they have plans to.

[Mr.Nuke]

Thanks for the speculative intel on Air Canada. But I’ll wait for an official confirmation they’re leaving OMA before I comment specifically on that happenstance..

Something you quite likely will never get. Neither Air Canada nor Eppley has much incentive to publicize this. The only outside shot is someone at the W-H sees this and contacts Eppley and or Air Canada for formal confirmation.

Note Air Canada had 4 transborder cities they added that didn't have the United codeshare flight numbers, all 4 were dropped (OMA the last). I think this says it all right there, end of story.

Correlation doesn't equal causation.

I'm 90% certain this would have been a success with the code share just like every other Air Canada-USA flight is with a the code share.

I'm 95% sure it wouldn't have made any significant difference.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Not sure I buy that. Air Canada hitting the OMA market was a pretty big deal- and was covered by the W-H and all the local television stations. If down the line, Air Canada actually pulls the plug at OMA, I’m quite confident it will get covered “officially” by the local media. Especially KETV. Air Canada’s possible departure from OMA will not go by unnoticed by the local media...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Mr.Nuke]

Not sure I buy that. Air Canada hitting the OMA market was a pretty big deal- and was covered by the W-H and all the local television stations.

But how do you think this happens 99% of the time? The airport and or the airline (or both together jointly) issue a press release saying hey Air Canada is starting non-stop service to Omaha. This is going to a be a big deal it is the first international destination for Omaha, etc. That is what initiates the coverage.

If down the line, Air Canada actually pulls the plug at OMA, I’m quite confident it will get covered “officially” by the local media. Especially KETV. Air Canada’s possible departure from OMA will not go by unnoticed by the local media...

Like I said this afternoon, neither side has any incentive to publicize the opposite... And like I also said, the only outside shot is someone at the W-H (or a tv station) sees this and contacts Eppley and or Air Canada for formal confirmation. Otherwise this goes entirely under the media radar, which again both the airport and the airline are probably good with.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Not sure I buy that. Air Canada hitting the OMA market was a pretty big deal- and was covered by the W-H and all the local television stations.

But how do you think this happens 99% of the time? The airport and or the airline (or both together jointly) issue a press release saying hey Air Canada is starting non-stop service to Omaha. This is going to a be a big deal it is the first international destination for Omaha, etc. That is what initiates the coverage.

If down the line, Air Canada actually pulls the plug at OMA, I’m quite confident it will get covered “officially” by the local media. Especially KETV. Air Canada’s possible departure from OMA will not go by unnoticed by the local media...

Like I said this afternoon, neither side has any incentive to publicize the opposite... And like I also said, the only outside shot is someone at the W-H (or a tv station) sees this and contacts Eppley and or Air Canada for formal confirmation. Otherwise this goes entirely under the media radar, which again both the airport and the airline are probably good with.

Of course I understand it.. But do you really think, with all the “fanfare” that came with Air Canada entering the Omaha air travel market, their pulling out will be some unnoticeable covert operation? lol..

In all serious- if AC does pull out of OMA, and it goes as unnoticed, it’s more an indictment of Omaha media incompetence than anything else.. And I just don’t see that happening..

But time will tell.. If in fact Air Canada actually pulls the plug on OMA ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Omababe]

Another data point here ...

When II flew out just a few hours ago, I glanced at the gate 15 area and the signage for Air Canada, which once was modest but obvious, did not appear to be there. FWIW.

[Iowafan8]

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... ober-2019/

[Uffda]

I noticed that Allegiant has no flights scheduled to most Florida destinations until October and/or November.

[Bearcat06]

Speaking of Allegiant, it appears they are adding a non-stop route to DSM from Sarasota as one of many route expansions. If they added that to OMA that probably would have saved a good two hours of flight time for me this last weekend instead of having to route through Atlanta.

Also, it appears OMA was working on taxiway F and runway 18/36. I know this was on the "other projects" list, but it doesn't appear things are idle at the OMA right now, so that's a bit of a positive. Does anyone recall what the expanded length was going to be? I'm sure it's buried somewhere in the thread. Not that I would anticipate seeing anything larger than a B737 flying consistently, if ever, to OMA, but we already know that Air Force 1 can land/takeoff here so the runways wouldn't appear to be a limiting factor to plane size...would it be the current jetways? Or is the expansion likely just to give some additional runway in case of inclement weather/conditions?

BTW, flights down to Atlanta and back from Dallas were both full from/to OMA. Both were Mad Dogs, but packed full. Interestingly, I was just looking at DFW flights again and it appears in the next few weeks AA may be switching to B737s and A319s coming into OMA for more of their flights...maybe it's temporary; maybe they are seeing more demand?

[damonhynes]

AA's MadDogs aare aadios as of 4 September, every laast one of them.

[Bearcat06]

AA's MadDogs aare aadios as of 4 September, every laast one of them.

Delta loves the Mad Dogs for their regional routes. I wonder if they will buy some up.

Looks like the A319 seats 16 less pax than the MD-80, so I ran a test for flights between OMA and DFW for the week of 8/26, non-stop only. AA is running 8 daily flights between OMA/DFW (M-F), and 6 on each Sat/Sun with an E75-Embraer RJ-175 replacing one of the MD-80 flights on the mid-Sat morning flight. There was a total of 52 weekly flights, with all except the late Sat morning departure on MD-80s. As of my 9/9 test week, they will still run the same number of flights and the RJ-175 is still on the schedule for the late Sat morning flight. Otherwise it appears they will run a B737 and A319 each twice a day (M-F), two B737s on Sat and two B737s and one A319 on Sunday.

Long story short, it looks like a pax increased capacity of about 420 seats per week with the new planes for a potential 5.5% increase in pax traffic to/from DFW. Not a huge figure, but over a year it could increase traffic by about 21,000 travelers for that route alone. I'll have to dig into their other non-stop routes from OMA to see if this is an anomaly.

[damonhynes]

AA's MadDogs aare aadios as of 4 September, every laast one of them.

Delta loves the Mad Dogs for their regional routes. I wonder if they will buy some up.

I think AA's are pretty junk. DL has the same lack-of-spares problem that AA does. IIRC, I saw on Airliners.net that DL will ditch their MD-88s by 2022.

Some of the AA retirees have wound up in the Ukraine. Wouldn't surprise me to see them flying in precincts that ignore FAA regs (Venezuela, central Africa, etc) for maybe twenty years more. Doesn't mean I'd want to fly on one...

[Bearcat06]

Did some research for post 9/4 transition away from MD-80s for AA. This is based on non-stop flights only per their website.

OMA/CLT - No change in seats/flights
OMA/ORD - Losing 1 flight/day = loss of 672 seats/wk
OMA/DFW - No change in # of flights, seats +456/wk
OMA/LAX - Still 2 flights/day. A319 replaces one RT flight from RJ-175 (except Sundays - sorry) and adds 576 seats/wk
OMA/PHL - Adding 1 flight/wk? (It was hard to tell if they fly direct to PHL on Thurs & Sun right now or if they are just sold out); total +152 seats/wk?
OMA/PHX - No change in seats/flights

Total potential increase appears to be around 512 seats a week, (1.14% increase in availability) and a potential for an additional 26,624 travelers through OMA per year. Of course that's based upon 100% pax load and no changes in flights/destinations, which we all know can fluctuate anytime.

[blueblood]

I am flying to LA for New Years. Rented a place we have had a few times. Then I looked at the flights. Most were in the $800+ range. I tried all the smaller LA airports. I had not checked LAX because I hate flying in there. Due to price I checked LAX. Come to find out there is a Delta flight for $430 round trip. Looks to be daily. Pounced on it. Is this a new route?

[Ryan Air]

I am flying to LA for New Years. Rented a place we have had a few times. Then I looked at the flights. Most were in the $800+ range. I tried all the smaller LA airports. I had not checked LAX because I hate flying in there. Due to price I checked LAX. Come to find out there is a Delta flight for $430 round trip. Looks to be daily. Pounced on it. Is this a new route?

Yes, Delta starts that route direct, daily (OMA-LAX) in November

[Omahacritic]

I am flying to LA for New Years. Rented a place we have had a few times. Then I looked at the flights. Most were in the $800+ range. I tried all the smaller LA airports. I had not checked LAX because I hate flying in there. Due to price I checked LAX. Come to find out there is a Delta flight for $430 round trip. Looks to be daily. Pounced on it. Is this a new route?

Yes, Delta starts that route direct, daily (OMA-LAX) in November

Fly Alaska to San Diego. Then take the train to LA.

[ScrattyB]

I am flying to LA for New Years. Rented a place we have had a few times. Then I looked at the flights. Most were in the $800+ range. I tried all the smaller LA airports. I had not checked LAX because I hate flying in there. Due to price I checked LAX. Come to find out there is a Delta flight for $430 round trip. Looks to be daily. Pounced on it. Is this a new route?

Yes, Delta starts that route direct, daily (OMA-LAX) in November

Fly Alaska to San Diego. Then take the train to LA.

Still over $400 just for that Alaska flight

[blueblood]

I'm great with anything under $600 for a nonstop to California. Between SF, LA, and SD I am out there 6-10 times a year so price/time shopping is sort of a hobby. The cheapest is always the Alaska nonstop to SD. I've flown it for under $300. I am not into the Amtrack out there cause its expensive and inconvenient. The most is the United nonstop to SF which is tough to get under $700. The fact to me that United has 2 daily nonstops to SF on a 2x2 and and the 4 times I have flown it this year its 90% full is mind blowing. My son that works and lives in SF swears there are commuters that live in Omaha and work in SF on it. LA is all over the map cost wise but it basically gives you 5 of more airports to work with. I was shocked by 2 things. The first being that I could not find anything for under $800 and if u add that I dont want to fly through Denver or Chicago due to weather delays it was frustrating . I was just waiting it out. LAX can add an hour or more to your commute so I had not checked it. Its over at least an hour quicker in travel time but the bag car rental part just sucks. The 2nd shocking thing was falling into the $432 daily nonstop on Delta into LAX. No ads, no announcement, it was just suddenly there. I don't get how they expect to fill it when no one knows about it.

[Ryan Air]

I'm great with anything under $600 for a nonstop to California. Between SF, LA, and SD I am out there 6-10 times a year so price/time shopping is sort of a hobby. The cheapest is always the Alaska nonstop to SD. I've flown it for under $300. I am not into the Amtrack out there cause its expensive and inconvenient. The most is the United nonstop to SF which is tough to get under $700. The fact to me that United has 2 daily nonstops to SF on a 2x2 and and the 4 times I have flown it this year its 90% full is mind blowing. My son that works and lives in SF swears there are commuters that live in Omaha and work in SF on it. LA is all over the map cost wise but it basically gives you 5 of more airports to work with. I was shocked by 2 things. The first being that I could not find anything for under $800 and if u add that I dont want to fly through Denver or Chicago due to weather delays it was frustrating . I was just waiting it out. LAX can add an hour or more to your commute so I had not checked it. Its over at least an hour quicker in travel time but the bag car rental part just sucks. The 2nd shocking thing was falling into the $432 daily nonstop on Delta into LAX. No ads, no announcement, it was just suddenly there. I don't get how they expect to fill it when no one knows about it.

This DL addition might have been one we scooped here on the forum- but shortly after both OWH and OAA did announce the addition. I believe the Lincoln Star Journal ran a quip too.

[damonhynes]

The most is the United nonstop to SF which is tough to get under $700.

Of course, UA is the only carrier to SFO. For all I know, while it may cost you 700 R/T to SFO it costs 800 R/T to HNL...