Omaha Eppley Airfield - DISCUSSION

GrandpaaSmucker · Post by **GrandpaaSmucker** » Mon May 04, 2020 12:52 am

I watched most of Warren Buffets annual share holders meeting yesterday and he said that before the virus hit Berkshire owned 10% of the stock of the top 4 airline companies. As soon as the virus hit Warren said that Berkshire sold all of its shares of the airlines right away and lost billions. He said the writing was on the wall that the airlines were going to be in trouble now and Berkshire was happy to cut its losses.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Mon May 04, 2020 1:25 pm

I get that the airlines are struggling now, but once this is all over, I am pretty sure they will rebound nicely. There is no alternative to travel as quickly as the airplane and it isn't going away. Maybe some businesses will use more online meetings, but travel demand is still going to be there.

GrandpaaSmucker · Post by **GrandpaaSmucker** » Mon May 04, 2020 3:35 pm

skinzfan23 wrote: Mon May 04, 2020 1:25 pm I get that the airlines are struggling now, but once this is all over, I am pretty sure they will rebound nicely. There is no alternative to travel as quickly as the airplane and it isn't going away. Maybe some businesses will use more online meetings, but travel demand is still going to be there.

We are all pulling for you to be right but meanwhile the reality is what it is. I can't stand Cramer and I do not trust him but this was an interesting clip from CNBC today about his thoughts concerning the airlines and Buffett and the state of the situation we are in.

[youtube][/youtube]

Omahacritic · Post by **Omahacritic** » Tue May 05, 2020 3:12 am

Of course, you missed the most relevant part of what a Buffet had to say.

Never bet against America. Ingenuity will be used by the airlines to claw their way back.

GrandpaaSmucker · Post by **GrandpaaSmucker** » Tue May 05, 2020 11:39 am

Omahacritic wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 3:12 am Of course, you missed the most relevant part of what a Buffet had to say.

Never bet against America. Ingenuity will be used by the airlines to claw their way back.

I would say Never bet against America or Warren Buffet!

I don't think I missed what he was saying. He was saying never bet against America in the LONG RUN! He was also saying that in the SHORT RUN it does not look good for America and he is not betting on things getting better anytime soon. He is strongly saying it with his wallet. He sold out all of his airline stock at a loss of over a billion dollars. He has not bought any stock yet since the pandemic struck.

ita · Post by **ita** » Tue May 05, 2020 3:06 pm

GrandpaaSmucker wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 11:39 am
Omahacritic wrote: Tue May 05, 2020 3:12 am Of course, you missed the most relevant part of what a Buffet had to say.

Never bet against America. Ingenuity will be used by the airlines to claw their way back.
I would say Never bet against America or Warren Buffet!

I don't think I missed what he was saying. He was saying never bet against America in the LONG RUN! He was also saying that in the SHORT RUN it does not look good for America and he is not betting on things getting better anytime soon. He is strongly saying it with his wallet. He sold out all of his airline stock at a loss of over a billion dollars. He has not bought any stock yet since the pandemic struck.

From what I was able to listen to and read, that is the message he was conveying. Buffett is clearly concerned about the near term economic future, and like you said, is taking a conservative approach by not really doing anything. I have already read criticisms of his approach, especially during the March stocks downturn, and his history lesson during the BH meeting, calling for activist investors to put pressure, but his history lesson was indicative of how he views and is analyzing this situation. At his age, he has seen the worse of the worse in terms of economic depression, but he has also seen the recoveries. It appears to be his opinion that he thinks recovery will take longer than many hope or anticipate. He is not buying anything and made it clear this Saturday that he hasn't made any moves lately because there was nothing worth buying (I'm paraphrasing).

Omahacritic · Post by **Omahacritic** » Wed May 06, 2020 4:06 am

Actually, Warren said you should bet against Warren.

The airlines won’t be giving him the return he expects of his investments.

You can bet you won’t recognize the Big 4 U.S. airlines this time next year. Two will likely merge. Another May merge with Alaska in a consortium involving foreign carriers. Excess plane capacity may be absorbed by a start-up airline.
Think Apple Air, Amazon Blue, or Elon Airways.

Perhaps Omaha can take advantage of the changes.

Bearcat06 · Post by **Bearcat06** » Wed May 13, 2020 11:30 pm

Omahacritic wrote: Wed May 06, 2020 4:06 am Actually, Warren said you should bet against Warren.

The airlines won’t be giving him the return he expects of his investments.

You can bet you won’t recognize the Big 4 U.S. airlines this time next year. Two will likely merge. Another May merge with Alaska in a consortium involving foreign carriers. Excess plane capacity may be absorbed by a start-up airline.
Think Apple Air, Amazon Blue, or Elon Airways.

Perhaps Omaha can take advantage of the changes.

An article I read from Slate today noted there are likely to be some big changes. Three aviation experts opined that 2019 pax numbers may not rebound until 2022 or 2023 (if ever) as they feel the current economic downturn is like 9/11, SARS/MERS and the Great Depression hitting all at the same time. They also noted that airline consolidation was likely, reasonable fares and freebies (snacks/drinks) could be gone and flying may be only for the well-off (for some reason I get a vision of Pan-Am and everyone dressed in suits and smoking on planes) as airlines try to maintain profit margins versus packing pax in like sardines and offering okay pricing. With more companies realizing business can be done from home, business travel may be slow to bounce back and with 33 million Americans applying for unemployment and the hospitality industry in shambles you can bet millions of families that typically would take vacations around the country won't be traveling for pleasure anytime soon.

Omahacritic · Post by **Omahacritic** » Thu May 14, 2020 2:57 am

I can see some type of Airline Regulation in our future. Not so extensive as the 1960’s but some flavors of it.

Regulation of routes I think. To keep them served. Perhaps some pricing regulation to keep the smaller markets affordable. Then use the big NY to LA flights to subsidize.
Then some new regional carriers come into existence.

Bearcat06 · Post by **Bearcat06** » Thu May 14, 2020 2:21 pm

Omahacritic wrote: Thu May 14, 2020 2:57 am I can see some type of Airline Regulation in our future. Not so extensive as the 1960’s but some flavors of it.

Regulation of routes I think. To keep them served. Perhaps some pricing regulation to keep the smaller markets affordable. Then use the big NY to LA flights to subsidize.
Then some new regional carriers come into existence.

Just thinking of companies that already own half the world for the new regional carriers, Amazon Airways. For social distancing the middle seats on Prime flights are filled with packages going to your destination city. If you're not a Prime member you don't get a seat choice and you have to drop off a package sitting next to you after you leave the airport.

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Thu May 14, 2020 3:01 pm

Regulation and mergers run counter to this administration's purported goals; I don't see it happening.

You can bet your bippy that fares will rise--with the reduction in frequency, Econ 101 says the prices will go up. Airlines won't be able to increase frequencies that much--both DL and AA are having 400-600 airframes scrapped. and with the inevitable rise in jet fuel prices, ditto. Perfect storm, all that's unclear is the timeframe.

Bearcat06 · Post by **Bearcat06** » Thu May 14, 2020 3:32 pm

Per Reuters today, Delta is going to retire 18 Boeing 777s along with it's MD-90s by the end of the year to save cash.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/ ... ssion=true

Bearcat06 · Post by **Bearcat06** » Thu May 14, 2020 3:34 pm

damonhynes wrote: Thu May 14, 2020 3:01 pm Regulation and mergers run counter to this administration's purported goals; I don't see it happening.

You can bet your bippy that fares will rise--with the reduction in frequency, Econ 101 says the prices will go up. Airlines won't be able to increase frequencies that much--both DL and AA are having 400-600 airframes scrapped. and with the inevitable rise in jet fuel prices, ditto. Perfect storm, all that's unclear is the timeframe.

I know there is probably limited space, but do the airlines buy a glut of fuel while prices are low right now and put that in reserve?

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Thu May 14, 2020 3:41 pm

Bearcat06 wrote: Thu May 14, 2020 3:34 pm
I know there is probably limited space, but do the airlines buy a glut of fuel while prices are low right now and put that in reserve?

Sure, but they have the same storage problem as the midstream companies have--not enough space--that's why oil futures were trading at a negative price last month. And when that sine wave peaks...

Bob from Omaha · Post by **Bob from Omaha** » Thu May 14, 2020 5:03 pm

They don't store it. It's futures contracts.

Mr.Nuke · Post by **Mr.Nuke** » Thu May 14, 2020 6:00 pm

Omahacritic wrote: Wed May 06, 2020 4:06 am You can bet you won’t recognize the Big 4 U.S. airlines this time next year. Two will likely merge.

Granted with this administration I don't think anything can be completely ruled out, but I'd be surprised if any further consolidation is allowed between the majors. The last go around with DL/NW, AA/US, and UA/CO was widely believed to be the last round of major consolidation that would be acceptably allowed on competitive grounds.

Omahacritic wrote: Thu May 14, 2020 2:57 am Regulation of routes I think. To keep them served.

You've basically got that now to an extent with the CARES act through October in the near term and EAS subsidies in smaller markets have been around for years.

damonhynes wrote: Thu May 14, 2020 3:01 pm Regulation and mergers run counter to this administration's purported goals; I don't see it happening.

You can bet your bippy that fares will rise--with the reduction in frequency, Econ 101 says the prices will go up. Airlines won't be able to increase frequencies that much--both DL and AA are having 400-600 airframes scrapped. and with the inevitable rise in jet fuel prices, ditto. Perfect storm, all that's unclear is the timeframe.

Regulation yes, mergers probably not a no. Disagree on the airlines not being able to increase frequency. They've got 100s of planes temporarily parked right now that could be brought back rather quickly and easily if they choose to. How quickly they choose to respond will be the question.

Mr.Nuke · Post by **Mr.Nuke** » Thu May 14, 2020 6:08 pm

Bearcat06 wrote: Thu May 14, 2020 3:34 pm I know there is probably limited space, but do the airlines buy a glut of fuel while prices are low right now and put that in reserve?

Not only is there limited storage space, but jet fuel has a relatively limited storage life due to degradation and contamination. It is typically used within about 3 months.

Bob from Omaha wrote: Thu May 14, 2020 5:03 pm They don't store it. It's futures contracts.

A futures contract still requires physical acceptance of the product at the expiration date of the contract. You'd need to use it or store it. Airlines are using a heck of a lot less of it right now and there aren't a lot of places to store it. Like damonhynes said this is why West Texas Intermediate crude went negative near the expiration date last month. No one could/wanted to take physical delivery of the product. Airlines can also hedge through options/swaps that may not require them to actually exercise the delivery option. With that said, many airlines are actually on the wrong side of this right now as they'd contracted fuel out ahead and are locked into contracts for A) way more fuel than they need and B) are obligated to buy it at a significantly higher rate than the current market prices.

Mr.Nuke · Post by **Mr.Nuke** » Tue May 19, 2020 7:29 pm

April down 95.5% year-over-year. and 36.4% year-to-date. https://www.flyoma.com/wp-content/uploa ... istics.pdf

Bob from Omaha · Post by **Bob from Omaha** » Tue May 19, 2020 8:14 pm

Lincoln down 97%

mrsticka · Post by **mrsticka** » Wed May 20, 2020 3:42 am

I didn't enjoy flying after 9/11 and I certainly won't now. If I have to wear a mask on a flight, forget it!

guy4omaha · Post by **guy4omaha** » Sun May 24, 2020 2:54 am

See the USA in your Chevrolet!

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun May 24, 2020 6:49 am

guy4omaha wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 2:54 am See the USA in your Chevrolet!

With the real possibility of having to quarantine for 14 days if one is traveling state to state, people may have to enjoy living in their Chevrolet as well..

The best option is to disregard significant travel until this time in 2021 when we have (possibly) a better handle on Covid-19 and or may even have a vaccine...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Omababe · Post by **Omababe** » Sun May 24, 2020 2:44 pm

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 6:49 amWith the real possibility of having to quarantine for 14 days if one is traveling state to state,

Do you have any cite for this "fact"?

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun May 24, 2020 2:50 pm

Omababe wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 2:44 pm
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 6:49 amWith the real possibility of having to quarantine for 14 days if one is traveling state to state,
Do you have any cite for this "fact"?

A simple google search would have yielded you this “fact”-

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/n ... 947021001/

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Omababe · Post by **Omababe** » Sun May 24, 2020 2:52 pm

Omababe wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 2:44 pm
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 6:49 amWith the real possibility of having to quarantine for 14 days if one is traveling state to state,
Do you have any cite for this "fact"?

I've heard some one-off reports of some states trying to enforce this (Florida, Hawaii) but no blanket any state-to-state quarantine.

Omababe · Post by **Omababe** » Sun May 24, 2020 2:52 pm

.......................

Omababe · Post by **Omababe** » Sun May 24, 2020 2:53 pm

I've heard some one-off reports of some states trying to enforce this (Florida, Hawaii) but no blanket any state-to-state quarantine.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun May 24, 2020 2:59 pm

Omababe wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 2:52 pm

Do you have any cite for this "fact"?

I've heard some one-off reports of some states trying to enforce this (Florida, Hawaii) but no blanket any state-to-state quarantine.

The article link I provided from USA Today updated May 15th, cites 28 states (including Nebraska) that either recommend or require people traveling to said state from another to self quarantine for 14 days...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Omababe · Post by **Omababe** » Sun May 24, 2020 3:01 pm

..........

Omababe · Post by **Omababe** » Sun May 24, 2020 3:01 pm

I don't consider it very practical or enforceable to quarantine when going between Omaha and Council Bluffs, or even flying between Omaha and Chicago.

With the "quarantine fatigue" growing every day, I would doubt that the Teeming Millions would voluntarily participate in any one-size-fits-all interstate quarantine.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun May 24, 2020 3:07 pm

I appreciate your opinion..

But you did ask to cite a reference.. And the quarantine recommendations and or requirements for traveling from many states to another is still a reality...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Omababe · Post by **Omababe** » Sun May 24, 2020 3:10 pm

Argumentative, aren't we, this morning?

With the real possibility of having to quarantine for 14 days if one is traveling state to state

Sorry, that report is far from any blanket one-size-fits-all 14 day mandatory quarantine from any state to any state.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun May 24, 2020 3:17 pm

Lol (maybe I do need to get in a cup of coffee

)..

No one is saying it’s a one size fits all blanket requirement and neither did I. The USA Today article simply references the states that either are still recommending or requiring persons traveling there to self quarantine for 14 days. People should be aware of this if they plan to travel to said states either by air or by car.. That’s all...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Bearcat06 · Post by **Bearcat06** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 3:52 pm

Delta cutting flights indefinitely to 11 destinations, LNK is on the list of those being culled.

https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-w ... 2020-6?amp

Uffda · Post by **Uffda** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:27 pm

Due to air travel down 95%.

Tampa International Airport delays $906 million in construction projects over the next five years.
A $690 million project to build a new airside for international flights will likely not be started for four years.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/business/ ... struction/

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sat Jun 06, 2020 10:10 pm

The Covid-19 Pandemic is causing plans to delay and quite nearly shut down completely.. Everywhere...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Ryan Air · Post by **Ryan Air** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:06 am

WN begins OMA-ATL service in December. 3x daily

https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... jan-4-2021

Omababe · Post by **Omababe** » Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:40 am

Ryan Air wrote: Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:06 amWN begins OMA-ATL service in December. 3x daily

That's a surprise! Gives Delta some competition.

Bob from Omaha · Post by **Bob from Omaha** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:43 am

So I guess the airport is moving ahead with the modernization program. I'm curious what will be the final design.

OMAHA AIRPORT AUTHORITY
MEETING NOTICE AND AGENDA
DATE: June 9, 2020
This is to advise that there will be a meeting of the Omaha Airport Authority on Tuesday, June 16, 2020 at 9:00 a.m. in the Board Room located on the second level of the Terminal Building, Eppley Airfield, Omaha, Nebraska.
The purpose of the meeting is as follows:
1. Roll Call
2. Minutes of the Last Meeting
3. COVID-19 Update
4. Terminal Modernization Program Update
Holder Construction Contract
Paslay Management Group Contract
WJD Planning Contract
5. Consent to Agreement – Change in Bond Trustee/Paying Agent
6. Elevator/Escalator Maintenance and Repair Agreement
7. ACAP Ground Lease
8. Briefing Items

Bob from Omaha · Post by **Bob from Omaha** » Tue Jun 16, 2020 1:56 am

I looked at the companies chosen to do the job.

On the Holder Construction page under aviation feature projects are Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Charlotte, Denver, Atlanta and Omaha. Not bad company to be in.

As for Palsay Management Group, their client page includes Austin, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Kansas City, LAX, Nashville, Sacramento, DFW, Tampa, Atlanta, San Diego, Phoenix and San Fransisco and Omaha.

I’m assuming Corgan is still the lead architect. If so their list of clients is along the same lines as the two above. Usual suspects.

All seem to be top of their field, or at least OMA is in very good company. I’d say the Airport Authority did a good job of picking the companies to do this.