It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Omaha Cowboy »

HR Paperstacks wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:19 pm Looks like the city data came out on May 23rd last year.

https://www2.census.gov/programs-survey ... 2010-2018/
Right. Once those come out about 7 weeks from now, you should have all the data to make those tables.. And I know how time consuming this is, so don’t feel obligated to do it..only do it if you have the time and your life schedule permits :) ...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by iamjacobm »

City numbers out 478,192 for Omaha.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by skinzfan23 »

That would be a gain of just under 10,000 (9,930 to be exact) If that holds true that would be impressive.

Here are the numbers for the largest cities in IA:

Des Moines 214237, -757
Cedar Rapids 133562, +343
Davenport 101590, -328
Sioux City 82651, +271
Iowa City 75130, -566
West Des Moines, 67899, +1294
Ankeny 67355, +2107
Waterloo 67328, -394
Ames 66258, +251
Council Bluffs 62166, -55
Dubuque 57882, -93
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Louie »

Should we be surprised that Des Moines proper lost people? I am not familiar with their growth, but knew their MSA was growing at a good pace.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Omaha Cowboy »

That is indeed a good number for Omaha.. We’ll see the final tale of the tape when the official 2020 Census numbers come out..

Des Moines is not able to annex to inflate growth like Omaha can (within Douglas county at least).. so their city proper numbers don’t reflect much, if any growth.. But their metro area, like Omaha, has been experiencing very healthy growth according to the annual estimates...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by BRoss »

Looks like the datasets are there now and I'm a couple weeks late. It's getting a little late tonight, but I'll look into putting it together in the next few days.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Omaha Cowboy »

HR Paperstacks wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:57 pm Looks like the datasets are there now and I'm a couple weeks late. It's getting a little late tonight, but I'll look into putting it together in the next few days.
Fantastic. Look forward to it :thumb: ...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by ricko »

The Census Bureau is reporting that the mail-in response/participation has been the worst in recent history. This means that Census foot-soldiers will be knocking on your door if you haven't responded yet. It's important to be counted for a number of reasons, probably the most important of which has to do with federal grant money---population determines the size of the grants, Private marketing companies also use the data to determine things like store locations, etc.. I don't think the CSA numbers will top a million this year, which is too bad because there are companies that use that number as a benchmark (hotel chains, retail stores, restaurants, etc.)---so, for example, a store like REI, Brooks Brothers, or a hotel chain like Intercontinental will automatically dismiss Omaha for a location because their algorithm told them to take a pass.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

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Omaha Metro Population 2010-2019.jpg
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by BRoss »

I noticed that all the estimates seem to fluctuate from year to year. None of the numbers for 2011-2018 match with what was reported last year. Updating the previous year's doesn't really surprise me, but 2011 still being revised does.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Omaha Cowboy »

HR Paperstacks wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:06 am I noticed that all the estimates seem to fluctuate from year to year. None of the numbers for 2011-2018 match with what was reported last year. Updating the previous year's doesn't really surprise me, but 2011 still being revised does.
They really do fluctuate. It’ll be interesting to see the numbers once we get the official 2020 Census numbers this coming April. I know my household was counted. I hope for the Omaha metro..and the rest of Nebraska, we continue to have a higher Census response rate.. If the Iowa side of the metro would just grow a bit, that’d be great, lol..

Thank you very much, as always, for the data tables and the work you put in to present them. They’re great and extremely useful :thumb: ...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by skinzfan23 »

I am going to bet that both Papillion and Bellevue will be higher than that when the 2020 Census comes out. Bellevue just completed one of the most aggressive annexation packages in city history last year and added over 7,000 residents from SIDS. Meanwhile, Papillion has had an explosion of new homes near Shadow Lake as well as out by Werner Park. Obviously some of those are probably in SIDS as well so they may not count in the official numbers, but still quite a bit of growth.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by ita »

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:27 am
HR Paperstacks wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:06 am I noticed that all the estimates seem to fluctuate from year to year. None of the numbers for 2011-2018 match with what was reported last year. Updating the previous year's doesn't really surprise me, but 2011 still being revised does.
They really do fluctuate. It’ll be interesting to see the numbers once we get the official 2020 Census numbers this coming April. I know my household was counted. I hope for the Omaha metro..and the rest of Nebraska, we continue to have a higher Census response rate.. If the Iowa side of the metro would just grow a bit, that’d be great, lol..

Thank you very much, as always, for the data tables and the work you put in to present them. They’re great and extremely useful :thumb: ...

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Tanks for the data tables HR!

I wonder why Iowa side has suffered from lack of growth this decade. I know many people who have lived here long enough have a stigma against the Iowa side of the Metro, but what about people who migrate here? Does that attribute to the lack or growth? I don't understand it. The Iowa side has cheaper real estate, housing, decent services, pretty locales. What gives? I think I have asked this every year since I joined, but it continues to confound me why the Iowa side can't get growing, at all.

Also, I didn't realize how far some parts of the 'Metro' are in Harrison county. Little Sioux is just as far from my house as Downtown Lincoln. I know that's not a metric the Census uses to determine CSA's, but I really hoped that the Omaha-Lincoln intercity feasibility study showed more traffic between the two metros. Based on their estimates, there are about about 13k from Lincoln to Omaha and 10k from Omaha to Lincoln. Based on my rough calculations, the employment interchange measure between the Lincoln and Omaha MSA's is only 5, where we need 15 to hit CSA status.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by BRoss »

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:27 amThank you very much, as always, for the data tables and the work you put in to present them. They’re great and extremely useful :thumb: ...
ita wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:44 am Tanks for the data tables HR!
You're welcome!
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

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ita wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 10:44 am
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 9:27 am
HR Paperstacks wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:06 am I noticed that all the estimates seem to fluctuate from year to year. None of the numbers for 2011-2018 match with what was reported last year. Updating the previous year's doesn't really surprise me, but 2011 still being revised does.
They really do fluctuate. It’ll be interesting to see the numbers once we get the official 2020 Census numbers this coming April. I know my household was counted. I hope for the Omaha metro..and the rest of Nebraska, we continue to have a higher Census response rate.. If the Iowa side of the metro would just grow a bit, that’d be great, lol..

Thank you very much, as always, for the data tables and the work you put in to present them. They’re great and extremely useful :thumb: ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
Tanks for the data tables HR!

I wonder why Iowa side has suffered from lack of growth this decade. I know many people who have lived here long enough have a stigma against the Iowa side of the Metro, but what about people who migrate here? Does that attribute to the lack or growth? I don't understand it. The Iowa side has cheaper real estate, housing, decent services, pretty locales. What gives? I think I have asked this every year since I joined, but it continues to confound me why the Iowa side can't get growing, at all.
That is the $64k question.. The Iowa side of the Omaha metro, population growth wise, has been stagnant since at least 1990. So much to unpack. But Iowa is a strange bird as it relates to growth- the central part of the state has robust growth, eastern Iowa slow to moderate, but western Iowa is basically nil.. For the stigma it has, unfairly imo, Council Bluffs is a nice small city and has some cool entertainment districts. There is no reason CB and Pottawattamie County doesn’t grow..

It’s puzzling to me as well. My hope is the official 2020 Census numbers at least reflect a minor rebound for population growth...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

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It is disappointing that the Iowa side so stagnant. I wish CB could see more growth.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Omaha Cowboy »

HR Paperstacks wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:53 pm It is disappointing that the Iowa side so stagnant. I wish CB could see more growth.
Very disappointing. The Iowa side, especially CB and Pottawattamie County, are much cooler and nicer than they're given credit for. And both the city/county *should* be growing. At at least a slightly moderate rate...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by ita »

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:15 pm
HR Paperstacks wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:53 pm It is disappointing that the Iowa side so stagnant. I wish CB could see more growth.
Very disappointing. The Iowa side, especially CB and Pottawattamie County, are much cooler and nicer than they're given credit for. And both the city/county *should* be growing. At at least a slightly moderate rate...

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Any chance Iowa's numbers are underestimated by the Census Bureau? I know certain neighborhoods were hit hard by flooding and such, but I do feel like over the last decade, Council Bluffs has had some residential developments and commercial investment. It's hard for me to believe they suffered negative growth this last decade.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

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ita wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 5:08 pm
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 4:15 pm
HR Paperstacks wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:53 pm It is disappointing that the Iowa side so stagnant. I wish CB could see more growth.
Very disappointing. The Iowa side, especially CB and Pottawattamie County, are much cooler and nicer than they're given credit for. And both the city/county *should* be growing. At at least a slightly moderate rate...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
Any chance Iowa's numbers are underestimated by the Census Bureau? I know certain neighborhoods were hit hard by flooding and such, but I do feel like over the last decade, Council Bluffs has had some residential developments and commercial investment. It's hard for me to believe they suffered negative growth this last decade.
I’ve long felt this, especially as it relates to the Omaha MSA estimates. For both the 2000 and 2010 official Census counts, the Omaha Metro grew more robustly than the annual estimates leading up to the official decade count. I expect to see the same for 2020..and yes, that would include the 3 Iowa counties that make up the 8 county Omaha MSA. What I think is, both Mills and Harrison counties will remain stagnate or maybe slightly lose or gain population.. but Pottawattamie County I would expect to see more of a gain than loss..Maybe a 2 to 3 % gain since 2010..and I think that’s a pretty realistic expectation. We know Douglas and Sarpy counties drive the metro growth. It’d be nice to see the other 6 (7 if you include Dodge county for Omaha’s CSA) at least hold serve and continue to score some small to moderate population gains over the decade..Harrison County is especially bleeding population..if we believe the estimates to be an accurate reflection, they’ve lost nearly 6% population since 2010. That hurts and is unhealthy..

My fingers remain crossed that Omaha’s CSA number, at least, hits the 1 million mark in 2020.. The MSA is likely 3 years or so away from that mark. We’ll have a much better idea once those official numbers are available this coming April...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Cermak »

The slow growth on the Iowa side is frustrating. Mills county is possibly the most attractive county in the entire metro with the Loess hills and rolling countryside, but can only show slow growth. Council Bluffs has some attractive areas as well and excellent interstate access and exposure, but can barely grow and some years post negative growth. And Harrison county is losing population at an alarming clip with no end in site. With Council Bluffs being by far the largest city in southwest Iowa you would think it could use that to its advantage and grow more.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

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ricko wrote: Wed Jun 03, 2020 10:53 pm The Census Bureau is reporting that the mail-in response/participation has been the worst in recent history. This means that Census foot-soldiers will be knocking on your door if you haven't responded yet. It's important to be counted for a number of reasons, probably the most important of which has to do with federal grant money---population determines the size of the grants, Private marketing companies also use the data to determine things like store locations, etc.. I don't think the CSA numbers will top a million this year, which is too bad because there are companies that use that number as a benchmark (hotel chains, retail stores, restaurants, etc.)---so, for example, a store like REI, Brooks Brothers, or a hotel chain like Intercontinental will automatically dismiss Omaha for a location because their algorithm told them to take a pass.
Well, I know when the counting started, Nebraska was among the states with the highest response rate for the mail in response.. I know my household was counted..

To everyone- if you have not been counted yet, make sure you do!..

As I stated in my post here yesterday, I believe the Omaha MSA and CSA annual estimates are lowballed. This was the case when the official 2000 and 2010 Census numbers came out..and showed Omaha’s growth numbers were higher than the annual estimates. The CSA number is so close to that 1 million mark right now, my hope is, there is enough nudge in the official 2020 count to bring it past the million mark. The MSA numbers are likely 3 years behind for hitting that milestone..

We’ll see...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by ita »

Reports are disconcerting that the Census's door knocking efforts will be cut a month shorter than expected. Many are worried about an undercount. Thankfully, Nebraska has responded voluntarily at high numbers, but I don't think the Census Bureau should be cutting the timeline just to get the numbers out, or whatever the reason is.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

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To give some numbers for context-

As of 7/23/20, the 2020 US Census response rate for Omaha (cities 250,000-500,000 population) is 68.8%.. Ranking Omaha 9th highest out of the 50 cities in this category (Lincoln ranked #1 at 74.2%).. The average is 62.4%..

So indeed, it’s good that the Omaha/Lincoln areas have responded at a higher rate voluntarily...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by ita »

Here is another issue regarding getting a full count on this year's census; the President's memorandum to the US Chamber of Commerce to not include illegal immigrants and some other classifications of immigrants in the apportionment count. Here is the Memo. Additionally, there is a lawsuit filed by some organizations and counties across the US to challenge the President's directive. San Jose Mayor Joins Plaintiffs in Lawsuit Over 2020 Census Count. This issue falls in the same vein as his efforts to get the citizenship question in the Census. These tactics would most definitely lead to an undercount; immigrants, illegal or not, would be deterred to answer doors or mail in responses to the Census and or persons would not be counted at all under this current directive, at least for the apportionment of congressional seats.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by bigredmed1 »

Why should sanctuary states get more electoral representation because they have more illegal immigration? This means that we get less representation. That means that rest of Nebraska will maybe get two. We might well lose a seat if the California Sanctuary scam is successful. Sound fair to you?
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

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What this could mean, is that the Census will have to use walk by estimates of populations in a particular census tract. It’s unfortunate indeed..and would likely lead to a miscount for sure..

But at least Omaha seems to have an advantage for a more accurate count due to its higher voluntary response rate..

It’ll be interesting to see how this shakes out...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Garrett »

bigredmed1 wrote: Mon Aug 03, 2020 12:38 pm Why should sanctuary states get more electoral representation because they have more illegal immigration? This means that we get less representation. That means that rest of Nebraska will maybe get two. We might well lose a seat if the California Sanctuary scam is successful. Sound fair to you?
Apportionment has always counted all people, this isn't a new thing. It has never just considered voting eligible populations. Nebraska is in zero danger of losing a seat, and California is on track to lose a seat this census. Furthermore, for purposes of enumeration, the census doesn't include a question about immigration status anyway, so it would be almost impossible to apply.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

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That is not the case and was not the case going back to the federalist papers. See today’s WSJ editorial.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by RNcyanide »

Are undocumented residents included in the apportionment population counts?

Yes, all people (citizens and noncitizens) with a usual residence in the 50 states are included in the resident population for the census, which means they are all included in the apportionment counts.

https://www.census.gov/topics/public-se ... qs.html#Q6

Also, according to projections made in 2014, we will have about 90000 more residents than is necessary to keep three seats, so we are definitely not in danger of losing one. It's worth noting that we are a paltry 688,000 residents away from a shiny new 4th congressional district.

https://www.electiondataservices.com/wp ... esMaps.pdf

States with more people get more representation in the house. That's why we have the Senate, so states like Maine and Nebraska and Idaho can play on the same field as California and Texas.
The qualifications on which the right of suffrage depend are not, perhaps, the same in any two States. In some of the States the difference is very material.

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Omahacritic »

Just 688,000 to go! What will the area look like in 2030? And with Lincoln growth, how would districts be redrawn? Nothing to argue about, but it is a bit fascinating to think about.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Omaha Cowboy »

Unless an extra ordinary happenstance were to occur, it would likely take Nebraska 50+ years to add 688,000 more residents.. Here is a listing of the Nebraska state population from the US Census, including the latest 2019 estimate which puts Nebraska at 1,934,408-

Historical population
Census Pop. %±
1860 28,841 —
1870 122,993 326.5%
1880 452,402 267.8%
1890 1,062,656 134.9%
1900 1,066,300 0.3%
1910 1,192,214 11.8%
1920 1,296,372 8.7%
1930 1,377,963 6.3%
1940 1,315,834 −4.5%
1950 1,325,510 0.7%
1960 1,411,330 6.5%
1970 1,483,493 5.1%
1980 1,569,825 5.8%
1990 1,578,385 0.5%
2000 1,711,263 8.4%
2010 1,826,341 6.7%
Est. 2019 1,934,408 5.9%

Using the 2019 estimate as a guide, since 1960, Nebraska has added about 523,000 in population.. That’s 59 years friends..I am hopeful Nebraska can grow at a more robust rate moving forward, but adding 688,000? Not in most of our lifetimes..

But by 2070ish though? Maybe...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Garrett »

The last time Nebraska had 4 congressional districts in 1952-1962 this is what they looked like. Unless they add congressional seats Nebraska will probably never have 4 districts again.

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Omaha Cowboy »

I’ll be turning cartwheels when the state hits the 2 million population mark in the next 5 or so years :mrgreen: ...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by guy4omaha »

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:04 pm I’ll be turning cartwheels when the state hits the 2 million
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haha, now that will be a sight to see. :D
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Omaha Cowboy »

guy4omaha wrote: Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:01 am
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:04 pm I’ll be turning cartwheels when the state hits the 2 million
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haha, now that will be a sight to see. :D
Definitely will.. Even more of a sight- you join me and we can pull them off in tandem :lol: ...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by guy4omaha »

sure, just have a stretcher ready for when I’m “done”.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Omaha Cowboy »

guy4omaha wrote: Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:43 pm sure, just have a stretcher ready for when I’m “done”.
We may need 2 of those..

To be a pliable 21 year old again :lol: ...

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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Omaha Cowboy »

The US Census American Community Survey (ACS) demographics are out for 2019. I thought I’d post the racial/ethnic breakdown for the 4 largest groups-

Omaha City only-

White: 314,653 65.8%
Black: 61,657, 12.9%
Hispanic: 66,448, 13.9%
Asian: 19,722, 4.1%

Omaha-Council Bluffs MSA (Metropolitan area)-

White - 75.4% - 716,104
Hispanic - 10.9% - 103,063
Black - 7.6% - 72,636
Asian - 3.1% - 29,038..

Omaha is definitely growing in diversity every year- City and Metro...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
Go Cowboys!
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bigredmed1
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by bigredmed1 »

Cowboy, I didn't need census data to tell me that. I am a pediatric hematologist and the number of kids with Hgb E has gone way up since the early 2000's. Lots more Asian people in Omaha than before.
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Re: It’s that time of year again- 2019 Metro/CSA estimates coming 03/26/20-

Post by Omaha Cowboy »

bigredmed1 wrote: Mon Sep 21, 2020 7:29 am Cowboy, I didn't need census data to tell me that. I am a pediatric hematologist and the number of kids with Hgb E has gone way up since the early 2000's. Lots more Asian people in Omaha than before.
The eyeball test will reveal the same thing..

But I’m a numbers junkie when it comes to Census figures and I like to provide numbers to back up what we see in everyday life :thumb: ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
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