2020 Weather Thread

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:27 pm

stormchaser wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:11 pm

I got two tornadoes on Aug 26 2004 in Coin and Riverton, IA. So there's hope...

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Jul 07, 2020 6:40 pm

stormchaser wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:11 pm
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:10 am Well, May/June 2020 came and went.. Perhaps the most boring severe weather season in recent history..

We’re now headed into the dog days of summer. Any early models indicate the chance for some active weather the next several weeks?...

Ciao..LiO...Peace
Yep, very lame in our area this year so far. Always difficult to really know what to expect (as far as specifics anyway) more than a week out. Just so many things can change that will drastically change things. That being said, currently anyway it looks like next week may have a few days at least with tornado potential (lows/warm fronts/triple points) in our area roughly - depending on capping though which is normally an issue this time of year.

Anyhow, tomorrow looks like our next chance for severe weather in central/eastern Nebraska with the potential for a few tornadoes out toward the central part of the State (near Kearney roughly) and then a subsequent night time damaging wind event in eastern Nebraska (typical for July). SPC currently has an outlook for these areas for tomorrow though. I'd assume the risk will be extended further east to include the Lincoln/Omaha area too to account for the overnight storms.

Excellent!..

As always, thanks for the heads up and detail

...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:27 pm

damonhynes wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:27 pm
stormchaser wrote: Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:11 pm
I got two tornadoes on Aug 26 2004 in Coin and Riverton, IA. So there's hope...

Yep, I don't call it quits until the snow flies. You just never know. I've seen tornadoes in October. A few years back (2016) there were tornadoes in central Nebraska on Christmas day - though obviously that's EXTREMELY rare. https://www.weather.gov/gid/Christmas2016Tornadoes

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:39 pm

Severe weather is expected today for much of central and eastern Nebraska - especially in an area west of Lincoln where things have been upgraded to an "enhanced risk". Damaging wind and hail will be the main threats though a isolated risk for a brief tornado or 2 is possible in parts of central/north central Nebraska (though that's pretty unlikely). This will probably be a fairly significant damaging wind event for areas in the enhanced risk area.

The HRRR forecast model has been consistent since yesterday with sparing Omaha itself from severe weather keeping most of it to our west and north and then having things die out as it gets close to town late tonight. The way this year has gone, I completely expect Omaha to miss out on any fun - I'm just hoping we get some rain at least.

12z HRRR simulated radar showing storm development around 4PM and lasting into the evening/overnight hours:

NUub · Post by **NUub** » Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:00 pm

Just gimme the rain, a nice 2 inches and I'll be happy!

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:16 pm

NUub wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:00 pm Just gimme the rain, a nice 2 inches and I'll be happy!

I'm not holding my breath. It would definitely be nice, but I don't think we'll get much more than .1"

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:41 pm

Still looking like a pretty substantial damaging wind event for west of here...but still looks like Omaha will dodge the bullet (again) unless that outflow boundary has some wind associated with it...

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:56 pm

Accurate...

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:04 pm

stormchaser wrote: Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:56 pm Accurate...

Best explanation I’ve seen so far!
Strange how abruptly the storms turn southeast in that model animation. Hope we at least get some rain out of it. Not hoping for any damage.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Jul 08, 2020 8:23 pm

That has been the story of the last three years.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:54 pm

That is hilarious and so true, lol...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:44 am

image.jpeg

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:12 am

I just saw the Omaha area is now included in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 5am...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:13 am

Derecho?

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Jul 09, 2020 1:25 pm

GetUrban wrote: Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:13 amDerecho?

Yes sir, I'd say this probably qualifies as a Derecho. As expected though, everything dove south and in general, missed Omaha itself (though at least we did get some rain though not much).

I put together a "recap" video loop of what all happened with the storms as they first developed in northern/central Nebraska and moved across eastern Nebraska. Included is both the base reflectivity and base velocities (so you can see where the strong winds are, etc). It isn't perfect and I missed a few frames and jumped around from a few locations/changed radar sites - but hopefully it all makes sense for anyone curious

.

NUub · Post by **NUub** » Fri Jul 10, 2020 3:04 am

Perhaps another chance for rain tomorrow night, at 80%/KETV. If we could be so lucky

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Jul 10, 2020 12:56 pm

Strong/severe storms are looking fairly likely later today across portions of SD into Nebraska where damaging wind, hail and a few tornadoes are likely (especially in the enhanced risk area). In Omaha itself, there is at least some threat for strong to severe storms but like normal they won't happen until tonight - possibly after midnight with what would be primarily a damaging wind threat. Decent chance we will get some much needed rain at least though...

Simulated radar from the 11z HRRR showing storms developing this afternoon in SD (probably large hail producers with a few tornadoes) and then dropping southeast into NE:

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Jul 10, 2020 2:05 pm

We can definitely use the rain..will be keeping an eye to the sky..

Thanks for the update!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

NUub · Post by **NUub** » Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:26 pm

Prospects are looking good, we just may get some serious rainfall tonight.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:31 pm

Currently a beautiful looking supercell bearing down on Kearney. It's anvil stretches all the way to Columbus, which is approximately 100 miles away from the center of the storm. Would take a screenshot of the radar but don't currently have the means.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:20 am

NUub wrote: Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:26 pm Prospects are looking good, we just may get some serious rainfall tonight.

Unfortunately I'm not so optimistic now. This morning into early this afternoon, storms formed and held on longer than expected in central SD. While this may not sound like a big deal, everything that happens with weather has a snowball effect (which is part of the reason why it can be so difficult to forecast). Long story short, the storms hanging on longer than expected in SD has consequently shifted the boundary for the storms expected later further south and west. Ultimately what this means is the storms that were expected to follow this boundary southeast into the Omaha area are now likely going to end up further west of here - because that's where the boundary is now located. I'm not saying we won't get any rain in Omaha but it seems like it probably won't be much yet again.

Busguy2010 wrote: Fri Jul 10, 2020 10:31 pm Currently a beautiful looking supercell bearing down on Kearney. It's anvil stretches all the way to Columbus, which is approximately 100 miles away from the center of the storm. Would take a screenshot of the radar but don't currently have the means.

Yep, that's a nice healthy storm with clouds even all the way here in Omaha from it.

Visible satellite from this storm:

Radar loop:

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Jul 11, 2020 12:25 am

Speaking of beasts of storms, did you guys happen to notice this monster in north central NE early this afternoon? 90+ mph winds with golf ball sized hail. That had to do some pretty significant damage in the area.

Warning text:

Storm report where measured winds of 97 mph as the storm was crossing in to NE:

NUub · Post by **NUub** » Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:02 am

The forecasting on this timeframe had been poor. In a short time frame from a chance... To 90% and up to 2" rain... Back to a chance... Starting to see the short term trending to waking up with a trace in the rain gauge.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:22 am

NUub wrote: Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:02 am The forecasting on this timeframe had been poor. In a short time frame from a chance... To 90% and up to 2" rain... Back to a chance... Starting to see the short term trending to waking up with a trace in the rain gauge.

Yep, unfortunately. I explained why above (if you didn’t happen to notice

)

NUub · Post by **NUub** » Sun Jul 12, 2020 2:08 am

stormchaser wrote: Sat Jul 11, 2020 1:22 am
Yep, unfortunately. I explained why above (if you didn’t happen to notice )

Hey I'm not blaming you, your heads up late in the inning was better than any of the various weather media sources seemed to be.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sun Jul 12, 2020 7:06 pm

I’m seeing that the next storm/rain possibilities for the Omaha area are this Tuesday/Wednesday..

Captain Obvious statement- We could definitely use the rain...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

NUub · Post by **NUub** » Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:35 am

If they forecast heavy rain I'm watering.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:39 pm

You just have to laugh how this year has gone so far. Today severe weather is expected west of Omaha in central parts of Nebraska (with an enhanced risk granted mostly wind hail). Tomorrow severe weather threat is expected also but mostly to our east with a decent tornado threat into Iowa. That said, I'm thinking we may get some decent storms tomorrow in Omaha at least depending on timing. Here is the latest simulated radar from the 12z HRRR forecast model showing the storms for today, tonight and into tomorrow ending around 6PM tomorrow (so you can't see what all happens tomorrow evening). Still looks like some storms in the area though. Probably not a ton of rain though but we will see.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:50 pm

It continues to look like most of the severe weather today will end up east of us (although a few strong/severe storms may end up in our area also depending on timing). The main concern for most people at this point is getting some decent rainfall in the Omaha area. The 12z HRRR does show this happening currently but Omaha itself is on the northern edge of this heavier rain - so it all comes down to the exact location of the boundary in the area where storms will form. Will it be over Omaha or south of town? Unfortunately its simply too close to call at this point and based on how this year has gone so far, I'm not overly optimistic. Fingers crossed though. Right now between 1.5"-2" of rain is depicted in Omaha based on the 12z HRRR - though as we've seen several times recently, things can change quickly. If things shift south at all, then we could end up with hardly anything. If it shifts north, we could end up with more than that.

Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC:

Simulated radar based on the 12z HRRR showing some decent rainfall in the area tonight:

Precip totals based on the 12z HRRR showing some decent rainfall amounts by tomorrow morning in the area - especially south of town:

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:54 pm

Keeping my fingers crossed for the rainfall...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

NUub · Post by **NUub** » Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:53 pm

In an effort to provoke rainfall, I'm washing cars, making big outdoor plans, and releasing the following statement: It's not going to rain at all, we won't even see sprinkles. Get out to the golf course and water the grass, it's going to be absolutely rain-free with 0% chance!

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:33 pm

NUub wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:53 pm In an effort to provoke rainfall, I'm washing cars, making big outdoor plans, and releasing the following statement: It's not going to rain at all, we won't even see sprinkles. Get out to the golf course and water the grass, it's going to be absolutely rain-free with 0% chance!

Now that’s the spirit, lol...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Jul 14, 2020 5:47 pm

NUub wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:53 pm In an effort to provoke rainfall, I'm washing cars, making big outdoor plans, and releasing the following statement: It's not going to rain at all, we won't even see sprinkles. Get out to the golf course and water the grass, it's going to be absolutely rain-free with 0% chance!

Lol - I should probably wash my car, etc too just to try to provoke mother nature

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Wed Jul 15, 2020 12:50 am

NUub wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:53 pm In an effort to provoke rainfall, I'm washing cars, making big outdoor plans, and releasing the following statement: It's not going to rain at all, we won't even see sprinkles. Get out to the golf course and water the grass, it's going to be absolutely rain-free with 0% chance!

Might I suggest adding to your list: paint your house, have a parade, and have a picnic with paper doilies set on fine linen tablecloth. Washing my car usually works. I’m sorry everybody, I haven’t washed it since March. Lol.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:16 am

It was an enjoyable mist this morning wasn't it? A nice departure from the sun and heat, too. Not much moisture, but I enjoyed it, at least. Take what you get right? Gonna get really hot this weekend.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Sat Jul 18, 2020 12:49 am

image.jpeg

NUub · Post by **NUub** » Sat Jul 18, 2020 9:10 pm

Looks like a Saturday-centric heat wave, everything else technically below average. Like to see some precip in the forecast, as we have Sunday/Monday, since it's better than 0% chance. I would do a pagan ritual dance in my lawn if it would mean getting some rain.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Jul 20, 2020 4:32 am

Finally a taste of rain looks somewhat probable overnight/tomorrow. Getting sick of watering every day.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jul 20, 2020 11:57 am

Yay rain! I tried to not post about it so I didn’t jinx it for a change...lol

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Jul 20, 2020 1:39 pm

Strong to severe storms are possible across much of NE today including the threat for a late night damaging wind event in eastern NE - as well as some more much needed rain. Currently it looks like this potential line of damaging wind will move into the Lincoln/Omaha area well after midnight though chances are it will be weakening as it moves into our area.

Simulated radar from the 12z HRRR forecast model showing the line of storms tonight...