May the Force be with us- 2020 Omaha MSA/CSA census estimates coming out 5/4/21-

[Omaha Cowboy]

Excellent..

I appreciate the predictions so far. Keep ‘em coming!...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Athomsfere]

Looking at statsamerica's web site, and I don't know how old the data is, in a 25 mile radius around Omaha there are a reported 949,442. For 50 mile radius there are 1,355,899. For 75 miles, 1,535,334 and for 100 miles, 1,893,105.

Ok, now I know it's all about cross commutes but I think the time has passed when the Omaha-Lincoln area should be considered a CSA or whatever. Yes, Lincoln has grown substantially to the south as well as east. Still it makes sense to me anyway.

edit. I just took a look at Google maps and checking the map history it appears that over the past few decades the bulk of the growth has actually been to the south. There has been a bit of eastern growth but not nearly as dramatic as to the south. My bad

I assume you mean western, not eastern?

I just looked again. I didn't see a ton of growth west of downtown really. I also don't see a lot of growth west of 84th. In neither case was it as pronounced as the southern growth.

Anyway, wherever it is Lincoln really is morphing. Downtown, rail yard area, Antelope Valley development is very cool, the whole city.

Having said all that, if I was leading a company and looking to expand I'd give serious consideration to the Omaha-Lincoln area. As I quoted above, it's an area with roughly 1.5 million people. That puts it in league with the rest of the second tier class of cities.

Not an estimate: But on the note of development:
I think it's also worth noting that within about ~2 hour drive, we also have access to 3 million people without many amenities that any of our cities could pull alone.

It feels to me, if I wanted to build something like an IKEA, Microcenter, Wolf Lodge... Omaha would be the place to build it to get tourists/ shoppers from Omaha, Lincoln, Des Moines, Sioux City, and Sioux Falls.

[Athomsfere]

On estimates:

I will be optimistic, and say Omaha saw a slight uptick to 1.4% in 2020.

963,000
999,804

[Omaha Cowboy]

But on the note of development:
I think it's also worth noting that within about ~2 hour drive, we also have access to 3 million people without many amenities that any of our cities could pull alone.

It feels to me, if I wanted to build something like an IKEA, Microcenter, Wolf Lodge... Omaha would be the place to build it to get tourists/ shoppers from Omaha, Lincoln, Des Moines, Sioux City, and Sioux Falls.

I absolutely agree with this.. Which is why I think it’s very important that when the actual 2020 US Census numbers become available this September, the Omaha CSA population number hits and exceeds the 1 million population threshold..Then, from a marketing standpoint, Omaha doesn’t have to point to a “study” that “estimates” the population at 1 million plus..Omaha can point to the actual 2020 US Census number and say the 1 million plus population number is really official..

Believe it or not, companies looking to expand into new markets, are much more apt to look at the latest official US Census numbers for market population validation..more so than an estimate from a “study”...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Athomsfere]

Believe it or not, companies looking to expand into new markets, are much more apt to look at the latest official US Census numbers for market population validation..more so than an estimate from a “study”...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Oh, I absolutely believe it. When you have to get the banks, the president, the local governments to grant something like TIF.

Every supposition removed is a fact gained, and that matters when money is on the table.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Believe it or not, companies looking to expand into new markets, are much more apt to look at the latest official US Census numbers for market population validation..more so than an estimate from a “study”...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Oh, I absolutely believe it. When you have to get the banks, the president, the local governments to grant something like TIF.

Every supposition removed is a fact gained, and that matters when money is on the table.

True indeed. When I explain to people why “officially” hitting and passing that 1 million population threshold is so important, that’s about 95% my answer.. The other 5% is, well, personally boasting of it lol ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Louie]

True indeed. When I explain to people why “officially” hitting and passing that 1 million population threshold is so important, that’s about 95% my answer.. The other 5% is, well, personally boasting of it lol ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

My numbers are the exact opposite of that ha

[Omaha Cowboy]

True indeed. When I explain to people why “officially” hitting and passing that 1 million population threshold is so important, that’s about 95% my answer.. The other 5% is, well, personally boasting of it lol ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

My numbers are the exact opposite of that ha

Well, I won’t argue with that hahaha ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Athomsfere]

We are getting ever so close to some great numbers!

[Louie]

We are getting ever so close to some great numbers!

State 2mil, Omaha CSA 1mil, Omaha proper 500k...all so close.

[Omaha Cowboy]

We are getting ever so close to some great numbers!

State 2mil, Omaha CSA 1mil, Omaha proper 500k...all so close.

I agree!..

I think when the Official 2020 US Census numbers are available in September, the Omaha CSA will pass the 1 million mark, the city proper population will tickle 500k and within 3 years, the state population will pass 2 million..

Great numbers indeed ...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Linkin5]

When do these release today?

[Omaha Cowboy]

When do these release today?

2pm CST..

I’m hoping to have the update later this afternoon when I’m finally finished with my work day. Unless someone beats me to it, lol...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Linkin5]

Omaha CSA- 990,492
Lincoln CSA- 359,267

[Athomsfere]

Omaha CSA- 990,492
Lincoln CSA- 359,267

Guesses, or it's out?

[Omaha Cowboy]

Omaha CSA- 990,492
Lincoln CSA- 359,267

Guesses, or it's out?

Lowball Du Jour.. Those are the 2020 estimate US Census guesses. The Omaha MSA clocked in at 954,270..another lowball..

I fully expect both the Omaha CSA and MSA numbers to be more substantial once they’re released in September...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Linkin5]

Omaha CSA- 990,492
Lincoln CSA- 359,267

Guesses, or it's out?

Lowball Du Jour.. Those are the 2020 estimate US Census guesses. The Omaha MSA clocked in at 954,270..another lowball..

I fully expect both the Omaha CSA and MSA numbers to be more substantial once they’re released in September...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Looking at the prior years estimates it looked like they lowballed everyone except south and southwest.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Omaha CSA- 990,492
Lincoln CSA- 359,267

Guesses, or it's out?

Lowball Du Jour.. Those are the 2020 estimate US Census guesses. The Omaha MSA clocked in at 954,270..another lowball..

I fully expect both the Omaha CSA and MSA numbers to be more substantial once they’re released in September...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Looking at the prior years estimates it looked like they lowballed everyone except south and southwest.

Agreed..

I noticed the same thing...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Garrett]

With these numbers in mind, I think the CSA will be very close, but not quite cross, 1 million.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I believe these latest estimates to be pretty off in the lowball department for Omaha..

That said, I expect once the official 2020 US Census numbers are available this September, the Omaha CSA population to squeeze past the 1 million mark and the MSA number to be between 965,000-970,000..

If I’m wrong, pass the ketchup and I’ll eat a straw hat...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[BRoss]

available this September

Saw in the OWH that it'll be mid-August now.

https://omaha.com/news/state-and-region ... op-story-1

[Athomsfere]

available this September

Saw in the OWH that it'll be mid-August now.

https://omaha.com/news/state-and-region ... op-story-1

Paywall... So I'm not sure the entirety of the article.

[BRoss]

available this September

Saw in the OWH that it'll be mid-August now.

https://omaha.com/news/state-and-region ... op-story-1

Paywall... So I'm not sure the entirety of the article.

On my PC, I have an ad blocker eliminate the popup and I usually delete the class attribute for the body to re-enable scrolling. I'm on my phone now, so can't do that.

From what I remember, there were concerns about redistricting and the 2022 election due to numbers coming out late and the census bureau has now committed to mid-August (I think the 16th).

[Omaha Cowboy]

available this September

Saw in the OWH that it'll be mid-August now.

https://omaha.com/news/state-and-region ... op-story-1

Paywall... So I'm not sure the entirety of the article.

On my PC, I have an ad blocker eliminate the popup and I usually delete the class attribute for the body to re-enable scrolling. I'm on my phone now, so can't do that.

From what I remember, there were concerns about redistricting and the 2022 election due to numbers coming out late and the census bureau has now committed to mid-August (I think the 16th).

I saw that. I hope this means the numbers are available for media consumption at that time, or they’re just released for state government use only on Aug 16th and we still wait until late September until those numbers are available for us to view..

The W-H article wasn’t really clear on that...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[ita]

Here's a nice roundup of county data from Net Nebraska with an interactive map to boot.

78% Of All Nebraska Counties Saw Their Populations Shrink This Decade

Daniel Wheaton
The U.S. Census Bureau released another set of population estimates this week, providing population data on the county level.

Nebraska’s population growth occurred mostly in the most populous counties – Douglas, Lancaster and Sarpy – with those three counties adding nearly 120,000 Nebraskans from 2010 to 2020. Only 19 other counties saw their population estimates grow, with every other county losing dozens, and in some instances thousands, of people.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Some interesting data..The bottom of page 21 estimates Omaha’s 2020 Metro Population at 962,060.. Which is not too far off from what I believe the Official 2020 US Census data will show at 965,000 plus..

http://d1c25a6gwz7q5e.cloudfront.net/papers/1319.pdf

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Athomsfere]

Some interesting data..The bottom of page 21 estimates Omaha’s 2020 Metro Population at 962,060.. Which is not too far off from what I believe the Official 2020 US Census data will show at 965,000 plus..

http://d1c25a6gwz7q5e.cloudfront.net/papers/1319.pdf

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Interesting, and my 963,000 splits the middle more or less

[Louie]

Here's a nice roundup of county data from Net Nebraska with an interactive map to boot.

78% Of All Nebraska Counties Saw Their Populations Shrink This Decade

Daniel Wheaton
The U.S. Census Bureau released another set of population estimates this week, providing population data on the county level.

Nebraska’s population growth occurred mostly in the most populous counties – Douglas, Lancaster and Sarpy – with those three counties adding nearly 120,000 Nebraskans from 2010 to 2020. Only 19 other counties saw their population estimates grow, with every other county losing dozens, and in some instances thousands, of people.

The table halfway down also shows a crazy domestic out-migraiton boom over the past 4 years.

[ita]

Here's a nice roundup of county data from Net Nebraska with an interactive map to boot.

78% Of All Nebraska Counties Saw Their Populations Shrink This Decade

Daniel Wheaton
The U.S. Census Bureau released another set of population estimates this week, providing population data on the county level.

Nebraska’s population growth occurred mostly in the most populous counties – Douglas, Lancaster and Sarpy – with those three counties adding nearly 120,000 Nebraskans from 2010 to 2020. Only 19 other counties saw their population estimates grow, with every other county losing dozens, and in some instances thousands, of people.

The table halfway down also shows a crazy domestic out-migraiton boom over the past 4 years.

Yeah, they pointed that out in the article. Not really shocking but the statistic stood out; I know a lot of people, young and old, who have moved out of state during that time frame, mostly for better employment opportunities or moving closer to family. For a lot of younger people I know who move out of state, under 35, they have moved here from another state and were not from here.

[Louie]

Here's a nice roundup of county data from Net Nebraska with an interactive map to boot.

78% Of All Nebraska Counties Saw Their Populations Shrink This Decade

Daniel Wheaton
The U.S. Census Bureau released another set of population estimates this week, providing population data on the county level.

Nebraska’s population growth occurred mostly in the most populous counties – Douglas, Lancaster and Sarpy – with those three counties adding nearly 120,000 Nebraskans from 2010 to 2020. Only 19 other counties saw their population estimates grow, with every other county losing dozens, and in some instances thousands, of people.

The table halfway down also shows a crazy domestic out-migraiton boom over the past 4 years.

Yeah, they pointed that out in the article. Not really shocking but the statistic stood out; I know a lot of people, young and old, who have moved out of state during that time frame, mostly for better employment opportunities or moving closer to family. For a lot of younger people I know who move out of state, under 35, they have moved here from another state and were not from here.

But what would be the explanation for a sudden 4 year boom when the years leading up to it were much lower and showing no real growth or decrease?

[Omaha Cowboy]

Some interesting data..The bottom of page 21 estimates Omaha’s 2020 Metro Population at 962,060.. Which is not too far off from what I believe the Official 2020 US Census data will show at 965,000 plus..

http://d1c25a6gwz7q5e.cloudfront.net/papers/1319.pdf

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Interesting, and my 963,000 splits the middle more or less

Yes indeed. These estimates are a sham this year anyway imo..

Can’t wait for the actual official US Census numbers coming out likely in the fall. I know there is word of a release in August..But I believe we as “regular folk” won’t have access to those numbers until September.. But, I’m willing to wait...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

[Louie]

Some interesting data..The bottom of page 21 estimates Omaha’s 2020 Metro Population at 962,060.. Which is not too far off from what I believe the Official 2020 US Census data will show at 965,000 plus..

http://d1c25a6gwz7q5e.cloudfront.net/papers/1319.pdf

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Interesting, and my 963,000 splits the middle more or less

Yes indeed. These estimates are a sham this year anyway imo..

Can’t wait for the actual official US Census numbers coming out likely in the fall. I know there is word of a release in August..But I believe we as “regular folk” won’t have access to those numbers until September.. But, I’m willing to wait...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Do you think any of those official numbers will reflect an exciting 2M for Nebraska, 1M for the Omaha CSA, or 500k Omaha proper?

[Omaha Cowboy]

Some interesting data..The bottom of page 21 estimates Omaha’s 2020 Metro Population at 962,060.. Which is not too far off from what I believe the Official 2020 US Census data will show at 965,000 plus..

http://d1c25a6gwz7q5e.cloudfront.net/papers/1319.pdf

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Interesting, and my 963,000 splits the middle more or less

Yes indeed. These estimates are a sham this year anyway imo..

Can’t wait for the actual official US Census numbers coming out likely in the fall. I know there is word of a release in August..But I believe we as “regular folk” won’t have access to those numbers until September.. But, I’m willing to wait...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Do you think any of those official numbers will reflect an exciting 2M for Nebraska, 1M for the Omaha CSA, or 500k Omaha proper?

Well first off, the official US 2020 Census has already released their first data set and that was for state populations last month-

“Nebraska’s population grew by 7.4% last decade according to the latest data from the U.S. Census.

A total of 1,961,504 people live in the Cornhusker State, up from 1,826,341 in 2010. Nebraska is now the nation’s 37th largest state, jumping West Virginia in the latest census and adding more than 135,000 people over the last decade.”..

So Nebraska’s official US Census population number for 2020 is 1,961,504. Just a touch under 2 million..

The next significant data set the official 2020 US Census will release, is the state county population numbers which will reflect the Metropolitan and CSA numbers. That data is coming in September. As I’ve stated in previous posts in this thread, I believe those official numbers will reveal Omaha’s CSA number as passing 1 million..and I predict the metropolitan number will hit about 965,000..

City population? Maybe just short of 500k. But imo, city population numbers are not nearly as important or significant as metropolitan and CSA numbers..

So, we’ll see in September...

Ciao..LiO...Peace