2021 Weather thread-

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:29 pm

It loads so slowly now that I just hardly ever look at the radar anymore. Just don't know what other radar products are out there that load quickly and don't have a lot of fluff. I liked the old one quite a bit better.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:53 pm

So looks like we got .87" out of that rainy period. Not bad, but also not the 1.5" they were talking at one point. The rain we were expected to get last night and the night before really just didn't pan out. That leaves us with 2.19" of moisture to be had in the form of rain or snow the remainder of the month in order to keep a normal April.

But it looks like mostly sunny and slightly below average temperatures after tomorrow's slightly warm day. Then next chance for rain is Thursday and Friday, but it doesn't sound impressive.

So I was hoping we got a bit more rain out of that system than we did. The OmaDome was well at work with this one.

Also does appear we will make it to April 15th without a freeze, so it will either be April 1st, or we will have a late freeze.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:03 pm

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Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:16 pm

Well that would be right on time.

Forecast changed rather drastically since I said it wasn't going to freeze. They were talking 37 for a low a few days ago, but now 32. Well see what it officially gets down to at the airport, but needless to say, it looks like most people around here will get to 32 or below, and the plants will know it.

Louie · Post by **Louie** » Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:33 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:16 pm Well that would be right on time.

Forecast changed rather drastically since I said it wasn't going to freeze. They were talking 37 for a low a few days ago, but now 32. Well see what it officially gets down to at the airport, but needless to say, it looks like most people around here will get to 32 or below, and the plants will know it.

That'll pause the tree budding a bit.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:08 pm

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Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Apr 14, 2021 4:26 pm

Wow, this is kinda unexpected. Looks like it could get down to 32 in places as late as Monday April 19, which is just the last day of the forecast. Who knows what will happen after that.

I've been keeping track since 2013 and only two years has the last freeze not been the 14th, 15th, or 16th. It is actually surprisingly reliable.

Only in 2013, when it snowed on May 2nd, and then winter finally gave us it's last lick on May 10th-ish. Then in 2015, the last freeze was on like April 22nd.

David Koeller said the other day that the average last freeze is April 20th. That must be all time. Since I've been keeping track, it has mostly been a solid 14th-16th.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:14 am

Historically, when it snowed the 3 inches in Omaha on May 2nd 2013, the last time it had snowed in Omaha in the month of May was 1968..45 years..and it hasn’t snowed in Omaha in May since 2013..

A May snow event in Omaha of any kind, is very rare indeed...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:36 am

It would be cool to know how many times it has snowed in May in Omaha at all since record keeping began.

Also would be interesting to know what the average last snow is. On average, April is expected to see 1" of snow, but that doesn't say whether that is on the 1st or the 30th. Looks like there are continual freeze opportunities late in the forecast period, which is Wednesday morning 4/21. Not saying I think it'll snow, but it is "supposed" to be cloudy during these early morning freeze chances. And we've had a relatively long period of no snow. Last snow was February 21st, so 52 days now. A little goofy since it is still only a couple weeks out of Winter.

Anyway, I am loving these conditions we've had lately and look to have for several days. Highs in the mid 50's and enough sun. That would be perfect weather in my book. Only a brief rain chance later in the work week. Still hoping for more rain though, the more days that keep falling off with no rain, the harder it will be to maintain normal moisture and cut into our deficit from last year.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:19 am

Busguy2010 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:36 am It would be cool to know how many times it has snowed in May in Omaha at all since record keeping began.

And we've had a relatively long period of no snow. Last snow was February 21st, so 52 days now. A little goofy since it is still only a couple weeks out of Winter.

Agreed there. It would be cool to know. My guess, without even trying to look that up, snow in Omaha in May has occurred less than 5 times in the last 100 plus years..

And interesting you bring up the February 21st snow event. I was telling a friend this week that 2/21 was the last snow in Omaha..somewhere between 4-7 inches depending upon where in the metro you live..I enjoy taking daily pictures of the sunset. I went back and looked at all my pics, which show a school across the street where I live and the ground surrounding it in the foreground ..On March 1st, my pic shows about 50% of the snow had melted.. By my March 5th pic, there was absolutely zero snow left on the ground.. So in that time period this year, between Feb 21st and March 5th, all that snow we received in Jan/Feb disappeared pretty much completely..

Pretty amazing what a 10 day warm up can do...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Post by **Brad** » Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:52 am

Holy |expletive|, if you like a good storm video, Mike Olbinski has done it again! Some of these scenes are from the Midwest.

[youtube][/youtube]

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:08 am

I'll have to watch that later. I'm a big fan of Pecos Hank, as well. But all these storm videos depend of there being storms, and last year was a real stinker across the entire U.S. Tornado season has been very active in the southeast so far this year, so I expect to see more new tornado videos in time. Probably already out there actually, just haven't looked for em.

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:57 am

Brad wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:52 am Holy |expletive|, if you like a good storm video, Mike Olbinski has done it again! Some of these scenes are from the Midwest.

[youtube][/youtube]

OMG! That is some amazing work. Not only is it art, but also educational in the way it captures the subtle complexity of the forces at work in the storms. The heavy downdrafts of rain and wind are as amazing as the circulation and build=up of the clouds.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:55 am

Yeah, not my type of video. Cool pictures, but I couldn't do the music and the dramatics.

I like me some Skip Talbot and Pecos Hank.

Post by **Brad** » Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:06 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:55 am Yeah, not my type of video. Cool pictures, but I couldn't do the music and the dramatics.

I like me some Skip Talbot and Pecos Hank.

Yeah, video is awesome, music is terrible.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:25 pm

Wow, forecast is even trending cooler now. Many days next week struggle to break 50 and doesnt look as sunny as it did. Definitely a cool one out there this week.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:44 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 5:25 pm Wow, forecast is even trending cooler now. Many days next week struggle to break 50 and doesnt look as sunny as it did. Definitely a cool one out there this week.

So that means the following week will be a return back to the 80's and 90's?

Seems like we do this every year. Skip over some of the best weather days and head right to the really cold or really hot weather.

Last year we had beautiful weather on April 15th and then it snowed on April 16th so at least we don't have snow expected today.

damonhynes · Post by **damonhynes** » Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:26 pm

I haven't seen a tornado since 2014 (Beaver Crossing) and haven't chased since 2018. The last three springs have been Seattleish. :-(

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:42 am

damonhynes wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:26 pm I haven't seen a tornado since 2014 (Beaver Crossing) and haven't chased since 2018. The last three springs have been Seattleish. :-(

The past few seasons have been quite flat.

I saw the tornado in Omaha on April 27, 2016.

And I'll never forget that Mother's day, May 11th 2014 Beaver Crossing tornado and Omaha supercell. It was the single most threatening storm of my life so far and I feel we in Omaha were very lucky not to receive a direct hit from a 1+ mile wide EF 3 tornado. The mammatus clouds over Omaha hours preceding the actual storm's arrival were absolutely incredible and just a testament to that storm's power.

Of course, we had the Bellevue tornados since then, but they were gust front tornadoes. We usually get bow echoes and gust front tornadoes in Omaha, which is why that Mother's day 2014 storm really sticks out in my mind. That thing was a bonafide monster supercell and I honestly don't know how many times a supercell of that magnitude passes over Omaha. I don't remember one before and definitely not one since.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:06 pm

Really gloomy Monday on tap. Current forecast is showing a steady temperature in the lower 40s all day, with rain chances all day and turning into, yes, snow early Tuesday morning. But it'll probably be such a small amount that it'll melt into the rain when it hits the ground. However, with water on the streets and a temperature below freezing, I wouldn't be surprised by the morning commute being a struggle for many.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 1:47 am

Wow, I am always fascinated by days like tomorrow. The low tonight is about 37 and is supposed to stay that temperature all day.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:21 am

Doubtful there will be any accumulating snow Monday/Tuesday.. Just cold rainy blah Monday, Tuesday and into Wednesday..at least the high Wednesday will be 50.. Then we’ll be having more spring like weather starting Thursday..and then next weekend looks great..

Can’t wait for that...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:43 pm

Well this is kinda fun. I don't know how long it's been snowing, but I'm enjoying this very light and beautiful snow.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 5:57 pm

As long as it doesn’t accumulate, I guess I’m okay with it..

Of course-

I’d much rather prefer a normal, sunny, mid 60’s April Spring day (like yesterday) however...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:34 am

Speaking of storm videos a few days ago, have you guys seen this Pecos Hank YouTube where he talks with a scientist who was able to graphically simulate the complex forces at work in an actual EF5 tornado using a super computer?

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:27 am

Yeah I've seen that.

Post by **Brad** » Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:59 pm

GetUrban wrote: Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:34 am Speaking of storm videos a few days ago, have you guys seen this Pecos Hank YouTube where he talks with a scientist who was able to graphically simulate the complex forces at work in an actual EF5 tornado using a super computer?

That is really cool, thanks for sharing.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:18 pm

Looks like tonight/tomorrow early morning should be the last freeze, so it'll be 4/22. Kinda late compared to the usual for the past 10 years.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:50 pm

Yeah, I believe the average annual last freeze for Omaha is April 15th.. So this year is definitely a bit late...

Ciao..LiO...Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:57 pm

I've been keeping track since 2013, and it has only been later than April 16th two times. It was May 2nd in 2013, and I don't remember (might have been 2015) the other year, but it was about April 22nd. Just one of them years I guess.

Post by **Brad** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:49 pm

2020 - April 17 = 27°
2019 - April 14 = 32°
2018 - April 18 = 28°
2017 - April 11 = 31°
2016 - April 12 = 27°
2015 - April 23 = 32°
2014 - April 18 = 30°
2013 - May 3 = 32°
2012 - April 11 = 32°
2011 - April 24 = 30°
2010 - April 8 = 31°
Decade Average = April 17

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:56 pm

What's your source? Mine slightly differ from the above. Only slightly.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:32 pm

The NWS record definitively goes back to 2016. I don't know why their numbers fall off before that, but one could extrapolate from the picture. According to the NWS, it has been the following:

2020 - April 17, 27°
2019 - April 14, 32°
2018 - April 19, 26°
2017 - April 11, 30°
2016 - April 12, 26°
2015 - April 23, 32°
2014 - April 18, 30°
2013 - May 3, 32°

And that's where my personal record keeping started, so when I talk about this, 2013 is my start point. Not quite 10 years, but for all intents and purposes, close enough. And also I guess I might have been wrong by saying "never been later than April 16th", I was going by memory and feel.

Only the freezes on April 23rd 2015, and on May 3rd 2013 were really late to me. The others on the 17th, 19th, 18th didn't leave an impression on me. If it turns out this is the last freeze in 2021, April 22 would be one that sticks out. Pretty late.

Post by **Brad** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:51 pm

Weather Underground

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:05 am

Ah, I personally never have relied on the weather channel. I enjoy watching them, but they do seem to be a little bit off. All the local news stations go off of the NWS records, maybe the weather channel has their own instruments and they go off their own records.

Post by **Brad** » Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:30 am

I don’t use them for forecasts, but their weather history feature is really nice. I guess I assumed it came from the NWS.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:02 am

I'm starting to get the itch for some severe weather. I know it is still pretty early, but heck, it seems like it's been forever since we've had anything somewhat resembling exciting weather.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:58 am

Also we now have only 9 days left to see 1.93" of moisture to get to the level of a normal April and not dip back into our deficit. Small chance tomorrow night, but outside of that, I'd bet we don't hit our mark for the month of April.

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:39 am

Busguy2010 wrote: Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:02 am I'm starting to get the itch for some severe weather. I know it is still pretty early, but heck, it seems like it's been forever since we've had anything somewhat resembling exciting weather.

Yeah, we can’t even seem to get a little lightning and thunder. But after watching so many tornado videos on YouTube lately, I should probably feel lucky we haven’t had anything too severe,

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:26 pm

Sounds like we could get some Thunderstorm activity in the Omaha area this Tuesday evening...

Ciao..LiO...Peace