2021 Weather thread-

[stormchaser]

I’m honestly starting to think the heavy rain is going to be a bust. The large area of rain in northeast KS is killing off the threat here IMO. Still some rain but way less than initially forecast probably.

[Busguy2010]

I’m honestly starting to think the heavy rain is going to be a bust. The large area of rain in northeast KS is killing off the threat here IMO. Still some rain but way less than initially forecast probably.

I'm agreeing with that assessment. I've been watching the radar and it looks sparse. Most of the rain looks like it is on the KS line, and whatever pretty strong storms west of here are not strengthening. Might be areas of heavy rain, but it doesn't appear to be materializing into a widespread rain event like was projected.

[stormchaser]

I’m honestly starting to think the heavy rain is going to be a bust. The large area of rain in northeast KS is killing off the threat here IMO. Still some rain but way less than initially forecast probably.

I'm agreeing with that assessment. I've been watching the radar and it looks sparse. Most of the rain looks like it is on the KS line, and whatever pretty strong storms west of here are not strengthening. Might be areas of heavy rain, but it doesn't appear to be materializing into a widespread rain event like was projected.

Who knows, based on recent radar trends it's starting to fill in some anyway around the York area. If this area keeps heading in the direction of Omaha and at least maintains its strength, we may get some localized heavy rain in Omaha later tonight. Based on radar estimates, that area of heaviest rain north of York has been putting down 2"-3" rain totals so I'd expect some places in our area to get that if radar trends continue. Still looking like more of a localized event to me even though Omaha may happen to be one of the places that get hit. Get much further north than Omaha and odds of heavy rain probably decrease pretty quickly (based on radar trends anyway).

[Busguy2010]

Yeah, you're right, that storm out by York is coming together. Seeing more reds all the sudden, and a bit of a bow developing. I just don't know if it'll hold together long enough to fully affect Omaha itself. Its holding off quite a bit later than I expected. I though we would have seen it by now, but now looking like 10-11-12.

[stormchaser]

Yeah, you're right, that storm out by York is coming together. Seeing more reds all the sudden, and a bit of a bow developing. I just don't know if it'll hold together long enough to fully affect Omaha itself. Its holding off quite a bit later than I expected. I though we would have seen it by now, but now looking like 10-11-12.

Yeah, it will be interesting as it gets closer to Omaha if it can maintain its strength. Due to how long the earlier rain/cloud cover held on today, the atmosphere in our area is relatively stable (unlike areas to our west where things had time to recover some and even then the severe threat was mostly a bust because of the earlier precip out there keeping things too stable overall). I’m going to guess that area of heavier rain/storms is going to at least weaken some as it gets closer to Omaha. Only time will tell…

[stormchaser]

…right now that storm is trying to bow out and become a wind producer (may even marginally become severe warned) but I suspect this is the last “hurrah” as its now hitting the edge of instability and stronger inhibition and intensity will probably soon decrease.

[stormchaser]

..25 minutes later and it’s definitely weakening and transitioning to more of a blob of rain/thunder with some heavy rain along the leading edge. Severe threat in Omaha is basically 0 at this point. “Maybe” some pea sized hail (though even that is unlikely) will be the most we will get out of this besides for an hour or so of steady and occasionally heavy rain.

[stormchaser]

Here are the radar estimated rain totals from the metro with the heaviest rain totals in the Elkhorn/Gretna areas where around an inch fell to Council Bluffs where around 1/4 inch fell. Pretty obvious how this area of precip was dying out as it moved over the metro.

Heaviest band of rain near us passed south of the metro with some areas in that band seeing over 3” of rain (again, based on radar estimates anyway).

[Brad]

We got 0.86" near 90th and Center, which was plenty.

[Louie]

Here are the radar estimated rain totals from the metro with the heaviest rain totals in the Elkhorn/Gretna areas where around an inch fell to Council Bluffs where around 1/4 inch fell. Pretty obvious how this area of precip was dying out as it moved over the metro.

Heaviest band of rain near us passed south of the metro with some areas in that band seeing over 3” of rain (again, based on radar estimates anyway).

What app are you using?

[stormchaser]

Here are the radar estimated rain totals from the metro with the heaviest rain totals in the Elkhorn/Gretna areas where around an inch fell to Council Bluffs where around 1/4 inch fell. Pretty obvious how this area of precip was dying out as it moved over the metro.

Heaviest band of rain near us passed south of the metro with some areas in that band seeing over 3” of rain (again, based on radar estimates anyway).

What app are you using?

That screenshot is from "Radarscope"

[Brad]

What app are you using?

That screenshot is from "Radarscope"

Or as my wife calls it, "The $10 Radar". It's worth every penny.

[skinzfan23]

We only got .30 in in Bellevue.

[stormchaser]

Lol yep - works great for storm chasing. I upgraded it to pro which is $99/yr which is worth it for me anyway.

“Radar Omega” is also a very good radar app - it gives you access to model data (among other things) from within the app which I like (although RadarScope uses less bandwidth which is important in rural areas when chasing where data is nearly nonexistent). More info here: https://www.radaromega.com/

[stormchaser]

We only got .30 in in Bellevue.

Sounds about right based on radar estimates anyway

[stormchaser]

Looks like we are in for a nice stretch of dry/pleasant weather over the next week or 2 with temps mostly in the 70s and 80s for highs in Omaha...

WAY off in "la-la land", the GFS has been hinting at our first real shot of "Fall" during the 3rd week of September (sometime around the 18th). To clarify, the odds of this actually happening as depicted at this point are EXTREMELY low simply because it's so far out and consequently models are unreliable for obvious reasons. Anything over 200 hours out is pretty unreliable and this is for 384 hours out. Regardless, if you look at the overall pattern being shown and not expect the specifics to verify, it can be beneficial (to an extent anyway).

If the GFS verifies as shown (which again it probably won't - but the last couple of runs have been consistent anyway), we'd get a nice shot of colder air in the area - even a chance for the first flakes of snow in far western Nebraska in this time frame with maybe highs in Omaha in the 40s or 50s (again, looking at specifics especially are unreliable but just mentioning it because it's our first signs of Fall so wanted to give some context anyway). It wouldn't completely surprise me considering the time of year but until I see things continue on model trends and see some model agreement on the long-range ECMWF (which this isn't even in range for yet), I'm not holding my breath - but it's still always fun/interesting to consider the possibility anyway.

[Busguy2010]

I wouldn't mind that... But I'd also be just fine with 60s for highs and 40s for lows. So even if it doesn't verify to the extent you were talking, sounds like more pleasant weather is on the horizon. It would be the right trajectory at least. First freeze is typically October 7th-14th-ish, but has held on as late as early November since I've been keeping track.

[Brad]

Lol yep - works great for storm chasing. I upgraded it to pro which is $99/yr which is worth it for me anyway.

I'd like to have that one, mainly for use on a PC so I could see it on the big monitors.

I wouldn't mind the $10/year lower tier so I could add the lightening, and also use the dual pane, but for now the one time $10 has more than I need. I basically use the reflectivity, velocity (which I would combine if I had the dual pane). I use the vertically integrated liquid to check for hail. Occasionally I will flip it over to Correlation Coefficient and look for debris in a tornado. I use to to see the rainfall estimates. Finally I will flip it over to Precipitation Depiction in winter for snow storms.

[stormchaser]

Lol yep - works great for storm chasing. I upgraded it to pro which is $99/yr which is worth it for me anyway.

I wouldn't mind the $10/year lower tier so I could add the lightening, and also use the dual pane, but for now the one time $10 has more than I need. I basically use the reflectivity, velocity (which I would combine if I had the dual pane). I use the vertically integrated liquid to check for hail. Occasionally I will flip it over to Correlation Coefficient and look for debris in a tornado. I use to to see the rainfall estimates. Finally I will flip it over to Precipitation Depiction in winter for snowstorms.

Nice, very similar to what I generally look at too. In addition, I use "enhanced echo tops" as one way to determine which storms are increasing or decreasing in intensity and if/when a storm breaks the cap. Instead of using vertically integrated liquid (VIL) to check for hail, I use the Differential Reflectivity (ZDR) in addition to the Correlation Coefficient and reflectivity to help determine the likely hail size. The downside with VIL is often it can mistake heavy rain for hail so it isn't the most accurate at times.

An example of how all these work together for hail can be found here (about halfway down the page): https://www.weather.gov/jan/dualpolupgrade-applications

[Busguy2010]

Forgot to do my August moisture report, so here is your August in review:

Observed precipitation (Eppley): 5.31"
"Normal" precipitation, August: 4.6"

So with that, we are able to take a .71" bite out of our deficit from last year, making us 11.4" behind for the decade. That is why I think, despite all the rain we've gotten in the past two months, all it takes is 5 days or so for the ground to dry and crack... But now that it isn't sweltering all the time, that should change.

[Busguy2010]

WOW, today was a little on the warm side, but the next two or three days are going to be amazing. Tomorrow night and Tuesday night figure to get down well into the 50's, with highs at or under 80. The real sweet thing for me is Wednesday during the day, the dew point will not even break 50. That is a first since the last time, which had to have been at least May, if not longer ago. Yippee!!

But then it gets above average again. I hope that next week will be our last taste of summer.

[Busguy2010]

Frack, it looks like there is a high likelihood of above average temperatures for the next forecast period, starting September 17th, next Friday. Not what I was hoping to see. So, sounds like we will have another week of 80's. I was hoping to see signs of our first wave of Fall. I need it, like bad.

[stormchaser]

Frack, it looks like there is a high likelihood of above average temperatures for the next forecast period, starting September 17th, next Friday. Not what I was hoping to see. So, sounds like we will have another week of 80's. I was hoping to see signs of our first wave of Fall. I need it, like bad.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are showing a pattern change and our first real shot of Fall on the horizon. The GFS has been trending slower with this pattern change/colder temps (if you recall, I mentioned a few days ago it was showing the 18th for this change - that has slowed a couple days which isn’t uncommon when looking at things that far out). Based on the ECMWF and GFS trends, I’d expect high temps to maybe only be in the 50s or low 60s starting around Tuesday, September 21st for our area with possibly severe weather as the cold front pushes through Monday (depending on timing). Of course, these are all estimations and since things are still a long way out, don't be surprised if the timing still changes some - but it's on the horizon anyway .

Until then, expect temps at or above normal probably (with some very hot days like Saturday).

[skinzfan23]

KETV now has 100 forecast for tomorrow....glad I kept my pool up.

[Brad]

KETV now has 100 forecast for tomorrow....glad I kept my pool up.

Tomorrow (and Sunday) is the 50th Annual Rockbrook Village Art Fair! Between 100 degrees and a husker game, its going to be a long afternoon...

[skinzfan23]

KETV now has 100 forecast for tomorrow....glad I kept my pool up.

Tomorrow (and Sunday) is the 50th Annual Rockbrook Village Art Fair! Between 100 degrees and a husker game, its going to be a long afternoon...

If its any consolation, they lowered it to 99 for Saturday

[stormchaser]

Still on track for a pattern change next week (sometime around the 21st or 22nd) with our first shot of cooler air/fall-like weather. Nothing drastic but still possibly lows in the 30s and 40s across much of NE anyway.

Here are the depicted lows based on the 12z GFS (take with a grain of salt since it's a ways out yet though)

[Busguy2010]

Thanks. According to that, Omaha itself would be right around 50 for a low, which, frankly we already saw a couple mornings of about a week ago. So if that ends up being the case, I'll be happy with it, but I wouldn't consider that a real shot of fall at least here in Omaha. I understand other parts of Nebraska may get much cooler, but that's not home. I'll be impressed if highs fail to reach 70 and lows get well into the 40's. Will be hard for me to believe as the NWS and all the local channels are forecasting upper 80's up to the end of the forecast, which would be Monday, maybe Tuesday. If it comes together, that would be quite a cool down to go from dam near 90 to 50, but still, until highs are under 70 and lows get well into the 40's, I will still be searching for fall.

[stormchaser]

Thanks. According to that, Omaha itself would be right around 50 for a low, which, frankly we already saw a couple mornings of about a week ago. So if that ends up being the case, I'll be happy with it, but I wouldn't consider that a real shot of fall at least here in Omaha. I understand other parts of Nebraska may get much cooler, but that's not home. I'll be impressed if highs fail to reach 70 and lows get well into the 40's. Will be hard for me to believe as the NWS and all the local channels are forecasting upper 80's up to the end of the forecast, which would be Monday, maybe Tuesday. If it comes together, that would be quite a cool down to go from dam near 90 to 50, but still, until highs are under 70 and lows get well into the 40's, I will still be searching for fall.

Yep, very strong cold front is depicted to push through on Tuesday (September 21st) based on the 12z GFS (image below shows the front and the temps ahead of and behind it as it's pushing through our area). The overall pattern is more fall-like with highs in the 60s and 70s with lows in the upper 40s for several days as opposed to 80s and 90s. We won't get super cold temps anytime soon though if that's what you're looking for .

[Busguy2010]

That would be wonderful. 90 to 60 in one sweep. I won't be here to experience it though. I'll be up in the mountains camping for some guaranteed cool weather.

[Busguy2010]

Cold front is finally showing up in the forecast. Tuesday 9/21 showing 78 for a high, 54 for a low Wednesday morning, and 67 for a high on Wednesday. Wednesday night is not out yet, but I imagine after not breaking 70 the day of, that it will get pretty cold that night.

[stormchaser]

Cold front is finally showing up in the forecast. Tuesday 9/21 showing 78 for a high, 54 for a low Wednesday morning, and 67 for a high on Wednesday. Wednesday night is not out yet, but I imagine after not breaking 70 the day of, that it will get pretty cold that night.

Yep ;) - probably be pretty windy those days too with some rain potential at times anyway

[Brad]

Thought this was interesting. "Falls City had its earliest freeze on this day 28 years ago"

[Busguy2010]

I can't frickin wait! It sounds like we are legitimately going to get our first taste of fall next Wednesday. I'll be dreaming of it when I'm sweating through my shirt tomorrow and much of the rest of the days until then. It will be such a relief to get my house down to my ideal temperature of ~ 62, the first time since May or April. I love fall.

[nativeomahan]

It figures. We leave Omaha this weekend for the tropics. Won’t be back until the second week of October.

[Busguy2010]

It figures. We leave Omaha this weekend for the tropics. Won’t be back until the second week of October.

Same, except I'm leaving to a guaranteed cooler climate. Almost disappointed I won't be here to feel the cool down, but the same system will give me even cooler temps where I'm going. I'm looking at waking up camping in lower 30s or upper 20s. Can't wait. And then when I come back, it sounds like fall will be here.

[stormchaser]

It figures. We leave Omaha this weekend for the tropics. Won’t be back until the second week of October.

Same, except I'm leaving to a guaranteed cooler climate. Almost disappointed I won't be here to feel the cool down, but the same system will give me even cooler temps where I'm going. I'm looking at waking up camping in lower 30s or upper 20s. Can't wait. And then when I come back, it sounds like fall will be here.

Hey, I gave you a ~3-week notice of the impending pattern change and cool down so you could have rescheduled...
Obviously, I'm kidding. Forecast models handled the timing of the pattern change relatively well though - only ended up being ~3 days off and when looking at things 3 weeks out and trying to forecast the timing of something, that's pretty darn good tbh.

[Busguy2010]

I don't know, as the forecast marches on, our cool down is kinda not looking as substantial as It once sounded...

NWS currently saying 68 for a high on Tuesday, which is really nice. Down to 53 on Wednesday morning, a high of 73 Wednesday, with a low of 54 on Thursday Morning, and a high of 78 on Thursday. Don't get me wrong, that 68 would feel great if I were here, but so far it doesn't seem like its coming together quite as strong as I was hoping. Was hoping to stick below 70 for highs and get into the 40's for lows.

Looks like tomorrow will turn out pleasant after the rain stops. Surprisingly the temp for tomorrow kept trending down and now the NWS is saying 73, so that will feel great compared to our otherwise upper 80's, low 90's weekend.

[stormchaser]

Still a pretty drastic pattern change though with basically no days in the next week or 2 in the 90s (after the front passes Monday night/Tuesday I mean). Most days temps will probably struggle to get in the 80s (a few days in the lower 80s but not many). Pretty typical early Fall weather.

May warm up again as we head into late September/early October but too far out to have much confidence…

[Brad]

Mike Olbinski put out Vorticity 4 (4K) today. Some scenes were filmed in Nebraska this spring. He really got some beautiful light this year.

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