2021 Weather thread-

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:39 am

Glad to come back to a couple nice cool nights. Looks like it got down to 43, which is AMAZING. I was camping elsewhere and it got down to 25, so I am okay with missing it in Omaha. Still more cool weather to come, I'm sure of it, but the end of the forecast looks a little warm. Not bad bad, but not my ideal.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Sep 25, 2021 12:01 pm

Brad wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:33 pm Mike Olbinski put out Vorticity 4 (4K) today. Some scenes were filmed in Nebraska this spring. He really got some beautiful light this year.

[youtube][/youtube]

I always love Mikes work - amazing stuff!

Looks like back into the 90s for a couple days starting tomorrow before things cool down at least some later this week. Still no cold air on the horizon…at least not yet

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:31 am

Well, the 14 day forecast doesn't look all that great to me. Upper 80's in the immediate upcoming days, then followed by a solid week of highs in the 70's and lows in the 50's. I'll definitely take it, but I'm for sure still searching for true fall weather... I'm talking highs of 60 or lower and lows in the 30's. Preferably would like to feel lower 50's or upper 40's at about sunset. I want to feel cold.

Oh and BTW, it kinda went over my head, but we're 2" behind in moisture for September, with only 4 days left to go with no moisture in sight.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Sep 27, 2021 3:24 pm

Wow, looks like the weekend could be a washout. NWS currently forecasting greater than 30% chance of rain over a solid stretch starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing through the end of the forecast, which is Sunday.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:31 pm

Looks like a fairly substantial cool down in store for Thursday. One could argue the front rolls in tomorrow afternoon, but at 85, Wednesday is still pretty warm. With highs barely topping, if they even get to 70, and our typical first freeze coming in a couple weeks, I'm ready to write today/part of tomorrow off as our last taste of summer.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:18 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:31 pm Looks like a fairly substantial cool down in store for Thursday. One could argue the front rolls in tomorrow afternoon, but at 85, Wednesday is still pretty warm. With highs barely topping, if they even get to 70, and our typical first freeze coming in a couple weeks, I'm ready to write today/part of tomorrow off as our last taste of summer.

KETV is forecasting highs Thursday through Saturday in the mid 70’s…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Sep 29, 2021 11:34 pm

I can't speak for KETV, but the NWS is saying 75 tomorrow, 74, 71, 71, 69, 66 the rest of the forecast respectively, and those numbers are a trend down since the last time I checked, so I'd assume the downward trend would continue. Someone even told me Bill Randby declared today as the final taste of summer, and with only about two weeks left before the average first freeze, I wouldn't doubt it. I'm starting to feel relieved, I can tell you that. I'm so over above average temperatures... But with the way things have been, I wouldn't be surprised if the first freeze holds off a little bit.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:22 am

We’ll see Randby’s 7 day forecast tonight..

But the last I saw of it, was mid 70’s at least through Saturday. The average high temp in Omaha for this time of the year is mid 70’s (74)…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:32 am

They do differ between NWS, the Weather Channel, (insert) local meteorologists. Just each entitiy's best guess. So I wouldn't be surprised if KETV is going for solidly mid 70's. I'm just saying even that is a big difference from even today, and especially the last few days... And the end of the forecast looks even cooler and I'm loving that prospect.

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:46 am

KETV seems to favor making forecasts in the 70’s. I’ve seen Bill Randy actually admit he’ll forecast 77 whenever there’s even a slight chance it will happen. They are channel 7 after all. Anyway, I’m hoping we hold onto highs in the 70s as long as possible. I’m never in a hurry to slide into colder weather. I start looking forward to spring by late December.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:39 pm

The World Herald reported that Eppley got 1.29 in between midnight and 6 am this morning. In Bellevue, we got less than .10 in, hopefully there is more coming today.

Post by **Brad** » Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:09 pm

skinzfan23 wrote: Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:39 pm The World Herald reported that Eppley got 1.29 in between midnight and 6 am this morning. In Bellevue, we got less than .10 in, hopefully there is more coming today.

Same here. I have been watering all week since I aeriated and seeded. Was hoping for more.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:06 pm

The NWS did up their forecast a bit, so it sounds like it's more in line with what ketv is saying. Still lower 70s toward the end will feel wonderful.

ita · Post by **ita** » Thu Sep 30, 2021 4:30 pm

Midwesterners Are Breathing Smoky Air From California Wildfires, Research Shows

Daniel Wheaton
Blood-red sunsets in the Midwest are striking but ominous illustrations of new data: Parts of the Midwest are being exposed to more wildfire smoke from the West Coast and Canada compared to more than a decade ago. Experts say the impact of the smoke on health in the region is a concern.

Meteorological patterns — weather, air currents, fronts — sweep wildfire smoke hundreds of miles across the country. Nowhere in the Midwest is this increased exposure to wildfire smoke more pronounced than in western Nebraska.

Take the case of Scottsbluff, a city of about 15,000 in Nebraska’s panhandle. From 2016 to 2020, residents of Scottsbluff breathed smoke 52 days a year on average. That’s a 45% increase from just a few years earlier, 2009 to 2013, when California wildfires were less common.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:12 pm

Brad wrote: Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:09 pm
skinzfan23 wrote: Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:39 pm The World Herald reported that Eppley got 1.29 in between midnight and 6 am this morning. In Bellevue, we got less than .10 in, hopefully there is more coming today.
Same here. I have been watering all week since I aeriated and seeded. Was hoping for more.

I finally mowed my grass shorter because we were supposed to get the rain and cooler weather. So much for that, KETV had a forecast of 74 for today. Right now it’s 85 and a heat index of close to 90. Thankfully the rain is still forecast for this evening between 6-10 pm.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Oct 01, 2021 4:09 pm

Hmm, I thought it was pretty well supposed to rain off and on all day Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. But now looks hard pressed to get any rain at all today. Last night was also pretty disappointing.

Padre · Post by **Padre** » Fri Oct 01, 2021 4:56 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Fri Oct 01, 2021 4:09 pm Hmm, I thought it was pretty well supposed to rain off and on all day Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. But now looks hard pressed to get any rain at all today. Last night was also pretty disappointing.

Sounded like it depended on where you were. Gretna and West Omaha looked like they got some rain, but Benson got almost nothing.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Fri Oct 01, 2021 5:13 pm

Between everything so far, we have gotten less than .10 in of rain in Bellevue. Still hoping for some tomorrow, as that sounds like the best chance this weekend.

bbinks · Post by **bbinks** » Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:03 pm

If your retirement planner had the accuracy as any meteorologist, you'd be poorer than poor.

skinzfan23 · Post by **skinzfan23** » Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:32 pm

In all fairness, predicting the weather is very difficult with all the different variables to consider.

Although, last winter I remember Caitlin Harvey from KETV vehemently stating that the metro would not get more than an inch of snow. She even guaranteed it. (something you don't hear a weather person do usually) and of course we received 6-7 throughout all of the metro from that storm. Ever since, my wife and I just laugh every time she comes on the news.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Oct 03, 2021 8:17 pm

skinzfan23 wrote: Fri Oct 01, 2021 7:32 pm In all fairness, predicting the weather is very difficult with all the different variables to consider.

Although, last winter I remember Caitlin Harvey from KETV vehemently stating that the metro would not get more than an inch of snow. She even guaranteed it. (something you don't hear a weather person do usually) and of course we received 6-7 throughout all of the metro from that storm. Ever since, my wife and I just laugh every time she comes on the news.

That’s part of the reason I taught myself how to forecast (that and obviously storm chasing). It’s sad how just plain wrong TV weather people are - it’s almost like they have no clue how to interpret model data and watch for trends. I get it, things can change QUICKLY but way too frequently most of the TV people an particular are behind on things (especially with severe potential and forecasting snow totals). Bill Randby does the best out of all of them that I’ve seen but some of them are terrible IMO…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:21 pm

Off in "la la land" again, long range models are in pretty decent agreement showing a strong storm system around the middle of the month (right now approximately the 13th or 14th but timing will probably change some). If things play out as depicted, some snow is possible in western NE with some cooler temps in our area too as cold air wraps around the low (though to be clear, there will also probably be a pretty healthy warm-up out ahead of the system in our area too).

Something to keep an eye on anyway...

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:10 pm

Darn it, I was going to say looks like the end of the forecast looks to be warming up, so I'd guess a bit of a warm up would be followed by a pretty substantial cool down some time in the 14 day forecast with potential to come down to around the upper 30's around the typical first freeze of about 14 days into October. It was just a feeling and a guess. Based on the warm trend lately, I would guess next week will be above average through mid week, and some time at the end of the 14 day forecast, which would be about October 14-17, there will be a substantial cool down... But I bet the first freeze will hold off a little longer.

Was gonna wait and see what KETV said in their 14 day forecast tonight, but you beat me to it.

Just a total hunch, but I'm betting on the 16th, 17th, 18th, we get down into the 30's.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Oct 03, 2021 11:13 pm

And just for fun, anybody wanna bet on the first official 32 degree measurement at Eppley?

Based on our generally warm summer, I will set the line at October 24th.

I will take the over.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Mon Oct 04, 2021 2:01 am

I’ll take the over too…

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:53 pm

After watching KETV's 14 day forecast, I feel less confident it my earlier guess. They were talking highs in the 60s and lows in the lower 50s. Not all that cool. And that would be that 17th time frame we were talking about. Heck, I ought to move that line up to October 31st, and I might still take the over.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Oct 05, 2021 1:59 am

Yeah, we aren't probably going to see subfreezing temps in Omaha itself anytime soon. All the colder air stays west and north of here for the most part as we for now stay on the warm side of the lows moving through...

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:13 am

Based on the current 00z GFS, we may get down into the 30s in Omaha the overnight of the 13th into 14th with snow possible in central/western NE (and up into the Dakotas). Unless the track of the low pressure pushes further east than currently depicted, though, Omaha won’t get below freezing (with lows staying in the upper 30s locally). That being said, the track has been trending further east on recent model runs so if that trend continues, it’s “possible” we may approach freezing locally - it’s our best chance anyway (albeit still pretty unlikely).

Something to keep an eye on to see if that eastward trend with the low continues in the coming days…

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Oct 06, 2021 12:57 pm

Looking less likely that the Omaha area will see much of anything as far as actual cold air as models have trended back west with the low (putting Omaha well into the warm side of the low). Still some potential snow for western NE into the Dakotas. Possibly some severe weather Tuesday here in our area with this storm depending on the timing that the front comes through and if instability/moisture return can be sufficent.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Oct 08, 2021 4:09 am

I'm starting to like the end of the 14 day forecast. Highs not to break 70, and lows into the mid 40's, and those are a trend down from a couple days ago. I hope they continue to trend down.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:05 am

I'm liking the end of the forecast now. It trended down, so we're probably looking at mid 60's with low 40's. It will finally start to feel like fall. Can't wait to see what KETV has to say about the upcoming 14-day forecast.

Post by **Brad** » Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:33 am

Sure hope the NWS is right about the moderate rainfall:

bigredmed1 · Post by **bigredmed1** » Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:53 pm

More rain, less hail.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:27 pm

I forgot to do the September rain report, maybe cause it hasn't rained much in a while.

Outside that one night a couple weeks ago, we really haven't seen a significant rainfall since the end of August. That one rain event at the end of September really jacked up the Omaha rain total, but I wouldn't doubt for a second most of the metro was behind by 1.5" during September.

So here are the official numbers for September:

Eppley - Normal rainfall 2.96". Recorded rainfall 2.35".
Deficit of .61"

Making us 12.01" behind on the decade.

Still ahead by about 2" on the year, but I don't like to see any additional deficit. We essentially need to be slightly ahead every month through 2024 in order to reasonably make up for the deficit we accrued in 2020.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Tue Oct 12, 2021 12:17 am

Toward the end of the forecast, so Friday and Saturday night/early morning, we could get close to 30's. So far looking like low 40's with a wind chill getting into the 30's. I like it.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:51 am

From the W-H-

“Storms rolling out of the Rocky Mountains and through Nebraska late Tuesday into Wednesday are expected to leave half an inch to an inch of rain in the Omaha area.

The chances for rain in Omaha pick up Tuesday evening, with the best chances coming about 1 a.m. Wednesday, said Dirk Petersen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Valley. “The storms will affect a large part of the central portion of the country and move northeast from there.””..

W-H story link:

https://omaha.com/news/local/omaha-area ... op-story-1

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Post by **Brad** » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:53 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:51 am
“Storms rolling out of the Rocky Mountains and through Nebraska late Tuesday into Wednesday are expected to leave half an inch to an inch of rain in the Omaha area.

The NWS has cut that estimate in half since that article was published....

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:56 am

Brad wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:53 am
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:51 am
“Storms rolling out of the Rocky Mountains and through Nebraska late Tuesday into Wednesday are expected to leave half an inch to an inch of rain in the Omaha area.

The NWS has cut that estimate in half since that article was published....

Interesting- the W-H website shows the article was updated 5 minutes ago…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Post by **Brad** » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:09 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:56 am

Interesting- the W-H website shows the article was updated 5 minutes ago…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Strange, when I clicked on your link is said 9 hours ago. I really hope we get over an inch!

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:16 am

Brad wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:09 am
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:56 am

Interesting- the W-H website shows the article was updated 5 minutes ago…

Ciao..LiO…Peace
Strange, when I clicked on your link is said 9 hours ago. I really hope we get over an inch!

Now when I click on the link, it says the story was updated 20 minutes ago, lol..

In any case, I agree, it’d be nice to get over an inch of rain to soak in before the first freeze…

Ciao..LiO…Peace