2021 Weather thread-

[GetUrban]

I had 2.80” in my gauge in northeast DoCo. We must be getting caught up or ahead for the year, but maybe have not erased last year’s deficit yet.

[Busguy2010]

I had 2.80” in my gauge in northeast DoCo. We must be getting caught up or ahead for the year, but maybe have not erased last year’s deficit yet.

We are definitely ahead on the year. I think we are ahead by about 3" to the day, with potential to go ahead by 4"-5" Wednesday/Thursday. It's definitely been a good moisture year so far, but 2020 was so bad, that we need at least a few more years like 2021 to make up for it.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I was watching Bill Randby’s 7 day forecast this evening-

It appears the first freeze will occur overnight November 2nd..Which, I believe, is about 2 weeks later than the average first freeze for Omaha which is around October 17th…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

I was watching Bill Randby’s 7 day forecast this evening-

It appears the first freeze will occur overnight November 2nd..Which, I believe, is about 2 weeks later than the average first freeze for Omaha which is around October 17th…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I believe it could happen early Monday morning (11/1) if the forecast trends down like it did a few days ago when a lot of us got to freezing, but didn't get an official freeze. But yeah, I saw the NWS was forecasting a low of 32 for early morning 11/2. In any case, it should happen within the next week or so. And yes, it would be about two, maybe three weeks late, but I believe it has gotten down to freezing for much of the area already, but not officially. The gardening part of my brain tells me it froze on 10/22, but 32 hasn't been officially recorded at Eppley. On 10/22 in the early morning, the CB airport recorded 32 for a pretty long time, so I believe Eppley is a bit of a heat island.

I'll call it a "speculative freeze". But when we start getting down to 28 or 26, then you know.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I was watching Bill Randby’s 7 day forecast this evening-

It appears the first freeze will occur overnight November 2nd..Which, I believe, is about 2 weeks later than the average first freeze for Omaha which is around October 17th…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I believe it could happen early Monday morning (11/1) if the forecast trends down like it did a few days ago when a lot of us got to freezing, but didn't get an official freeze. But yeah, I saw the NWS was forecasting a low of 32 for early morning 11/2. In any case, it should happen within the next week or so. And yes, it would be about two, maybe three weeks late, but I believe it has gotten down to freezing for much of the area already, but not officially. The gardening part of my brain tells me it froze on 10/22, but 32 hasn't been officially recorded at Eppley. On 10/22 in the early morning, the CB airport recorded 32 for a pretty long time, so I believe Eppley is a bit of a heat island.

I'll call it a "speculative freeze". But when we start getting down to 28 or 26, then you know.

Yeah, Randby has the 11/2 early AM low at 30..

We’ll see.. I do know it’s about 2 weeks later than usual…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[skinzfan23]

I am thankful for the late freeze, I had a few spots in the yard I patched with new grass seed and I was in a race against time for it to germinate. Thankfully, now, especially with all the rain, it sprouted quickly.

[stormchaser]

Looks like we may get our first flakes of snow next week Monday and again on Tuesday night/Wednesday (November 1st-3rd)...

[nativeomahan]

I was watching Bill Randby’s 7 day forecast this evening-

It appears the first freeze will occur overnight November 2nd..Which, I believe, is about 2 weeks later than the average first freeze for Omaha which is around October 17th…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

This is the first year that I can ever recall where I have not even needed to cover any of our multitudes of flowering plants during the entire month of October. We still have hibiscus in bloom on our patio.

[nativeomahan]

I think that due to climate change Omaha’s average first freeze date is close to Halloween now.

[Busguy2010]

It was in November, not sure which year, but within a few years. I think it was the 2nd or the 6th. Then it was very recently early, on October 7th. Again, I don't recall which year, but both happened fairly recently. And again, it has essentially frozen around these parts. Eppley Is probably one of only a few select locations that didn't get down to 32 about a week ago.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I was watching Bill Randby’s 7 day forecast this evening-

It appears the first freeze will occur overnight November 2nd..Which, I believe, is about 2 weeks later than the average first freeze for Omaha which is around October 17th…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

This is the first year that I can ever recall where I have not even needed to cover any of our multitudes of flowering plants during the entire month of October. We still have hibiscus in bloom on our patio.

That’s impressive..

Definitely beginning of November is a later date for the first freeze…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[skinzfan23]

Yes, I was thinking the same thing. Usually it becomes almost a nightly ritual to find old blankets/sheets to cover the plants with, but I have only done it once so far and am probably not going to again this season with the cold nights scheduled next week.

[Busguy2010]

Looks like it could freeze tomorrow night as well. Saturday looks like that's it for semi-reasonable temperatures, as all next week has highs in the lower 40's and lows in the 20's. I'd say that's it, so enjoy it.

[Cermak]

A hard freeze this morning in Omaha a low of 25. Parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin had several inches of snow Monday night.

[Busguy2010]

It got down to 27 according to the NWS. But it is pretty cool to see how my plants reacted. Last night was definitely our first hard freeze and my pepper plants knew it. They tolerated that speculative freeze of October 22nd, but that one last night definitely did them in. Collard greens are still okay though, maybe even better off.

[Louie]

My banana trees finally kicked from that frost. Can't believe they made it to November this year.

[Omaha Cowboy]

It was definitely a later first hard freeze than normal for the Omaha area..

I can’t remember where I read this, but Omaha’s latest first freeze on record was Nov 12th-13th of 2015..someone can correct me on that date..but I’m pretty certain that’s what I read…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

It was definitely a later first hard freeze than normal for the Omaha area..

I can’t remember where I read this, but Omaha’s latest first freeze on record was Nov 12th-13th of 2015..someone can correct me on that date..but I’m pretty certain that’s what I read…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I wouldn't doubt it, but don't care to dig and confirm. So our first official freeze in Omaha at Eppley this year was November 1st. Definitely late, but not the latest I remember. Plus to me, we had a freeze on October 22nd, but it wasn't official.

Anywho, the next couple weeks look to be kinda warm, which is also weird. But I have no doubt the unpredictable weather will set in soon.

[stormchaser]

It was definitely a later first hard freeze than normal for the Omaha area..

I can’t remember where I read this, but Omaha’s latest first freeze on record was Nov 12th-13th of 2015..someone can correct me on that date..but I’m pretty certain that’s what I read…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I wouldn't doubt it, but don't care to dig and confirm. So our first official freeze in Omaha at Eppley this year was November 1st. Definitely late, but not the latest I remember. Plus to me, we had a freeze on October 22nd, but it wasn't official.

Anywho, the next couple weeks look to be kinda warm, which is also weird. But I have no doubt the unpredictable weather will set in soon.

Looks warm until around November 11th or 12th when a pretty healthy trough is depicted to move into our area on both the long-range GFS and ECMWF which may bring with it potential for highs in the 30s in our area for at least a few days.

Potential exists in this time frame for a snow storm somewhere in the northern plains as this transition occurs and trough moves in but it's way too far out to really know where and/or to what extent. For reference, we are starting to get into the time of year when a warm-up is actually a precursor to a significant winter storm and I have a feeling that is what is about to happen in this situation (as warm/moist air is pulled up ahead of the storm). The GFS is depicting a winter storm (albeit in eastern IA currently though "where" is meaningless at this point), the ECMWF is not (which doesn't seem plausible to me). Model trends will need to be watched to see if they start to agree on a scenario in the coming days.

Long story short, don't be surprised if we have our first big winter storm somewhere in the northern plains sometime in the 13th-15th time frame (roughly). Will it hit Omaha? I mean the safe bet is to say "no" obviously but it's something that needs to be watched at least as we get closer

[Busguy2010]

^ that would be nice. I know its unpopular opinion, but I'm sick of the above average temperatures this year. I personally hope for an above average snowfall like last year, and a below average temperature. It shouldn't be dern near 70 degrees into November here. Luckily Daylight Savings Time is coming to an end soon, so it'll get darker earlier, which I like (another unpopular opinion).

[Omaha Cowboy]

^ that would be nice. I know its unpopular opinion, but I'm sick of the above average temperatures this year. I personally hope for an above average snowfall like last year, and a below average temperature. It shouldn't be dern near 70 degrees into November here. Luckily Daylight Savings Time is coming to an end soon, so it'll get darker earlier, which I like (another unpopular opinion).

You’ve got that right- Unpopular all around, lol.. I enjoy 70 degree highs in November..I even remember Thanksgiving Day several years back, the high was 75..

And “Falling Back” blows chunks. I absolutely despise it getting dark at 5pm..I love the long days of mid Spring thru mid Summer…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[GetUrban]

^ that would be nice. I know its unpopular opinion, but I'm sick of the above average temperatures this year. I personally hope for an above average snowfall like last year, and a below average temperature. It shouldn't be dern near 70 degrees into November here. Luckily Daylight Savings Time is coming to an end soon, so it'll get darker earlier, which I like (another unpopular opinion).

You’ve got that right- Unpopular all around, lol.. I enjoy 70 degree highs in November..I even remember Thanksgiving Day several years back, the high was 75..

And “Falling Back” blows chunks. I absolutely despise it getting dark at 5pm..I love the long days of mid Spring thru mid Summer…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Well said Omaha Cowboy, I’ll gladly take highs in the 70s and more daylight after work anytime I can get it. The novelty of the first snow wears-off real fast.

[Omaha Cowboy]

^ that would be nice. I know its unpopular opinion, but I'm sick of the above average temperatures this year. I personally hope for an above average snowfall like last year, and a below average temperature. It shouldn't be dern near 70 degrees into November here. Luckily Daylight Savings Time is coming to an end soon, so it'll get darker earlier, which I like (another unpopular opinion).

You’ve got that right- Unpopular all around, lol.. I enjoy 70 degree highs in November..I even remember Thanksgiving Day several years back, the high was 75..

And “Falling Back” blows chunks. I absolutely despise it getting dark at 5pm..I love the long days of mid Spring thru mid Summer…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Well said Omaha Cowboy, I’ll gladly take highs in the 70s and more daylight after work anytime I can get it. The novelty of the first snow wears-off real fast.

100%..

And any sort of first snow is completely overrated- I never look forward to it..or any frozen precipitation for that matter…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

The newest model runs are already backing off on things with a weaker trough being depicted around the 11th (so not as cold and probably only brief) with little if any snowstorm potential now for anywhere in the northern plains.

After this cool down another ridge moves in so probably warmer than average temps again if that verifies. Who knows, things can always quickly change this time of year but for now, it's trending back toward a non-event. Still worth keeping an eye on though

[Omaha Cowboy]

The newest model runs are already backing off on things with a weaker trough being depicted around the 11th (so not as cold and probably only brief) with little if any snowstorm potential now for anywhere in the northern plains.

After this cool down another ridge moves in so probably warmer than average temps again if that verifies. Who knows, things can always quickly change this time of year but for now, it's trending back toward a non-event. Still worth keeping an eye on though

Great news!..

Thanks as always for the “eye on the sky” updates …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

I LOVE getting my hour back. I can't care less if it gets dark at 5 if it means it being the actual time. I actually wish it was standard time all year. That would only mean it getting dark at 9 in the summer instead of 10. Can't wait! Only a few more days.

Another unpopular opinion... Instead of making everyone spring forward and fall back, employers should give the option to come in an hour or two earlier in the winter if people want more light at the end of the day

[GetUrban]

It has been a little harder to get up in the morning lately with it still being dark. The “fall-back” will help with that for awhile, so that is welcome. I’ve never been a “morning person”, so I enjoy using the time after work to go for a bike ride or other outdoor activities.

My current employer offers flex time, as long as you get your hours in and your work done, which is pretty generous, plus we have work-from-home capability which helps if you’re not feeling well or driving conditions are dangerous.

But I’m looking forward to “springing forward” again next year. Hopefully the powers that be won’t eff with Daylight Savings Time and change it from what we do now.

[stormchaser]

...And it's back again (this time being depicted way stronger and on the ECMWF which in general is more reliable). Don't be surprised if things keep flip-flopping as we get closer though so until there is good model agreement and consistency on different model runs, confidence (especially in specifics) is EXTREMELY low. The ECMWF is slightly faster with things too moving this big storm into the region around November 11th.

That said, this would be a pretty powerful storm if it actually happens (like I said yesterday, wouldn't surprise me with this warmup expected in the next few days):

Obviously, if this played out as depicted, Omaha would end up on the warm side of the low so the only snow we'd get as probably as cold air wraps around the low and eventually transitions things from rain to snow here but it's way too far out to know any of those details since model agreement is still low. It would be a blizzard for people to our west and north, though, with possibly an ice storm for some too...

[Busguy2010]

But I’m looking forward to “springing forward” again next year. Hopefully the powers that be won’t eff with Daylight Savings Time and change it from what we do now.

My biggest fear is That they'll go to DST year-round. DST is proven to be a bullshlt theory, and farmers don't even like it, which they were the reason it was argued for in the beginning. I will enjoy my standard time coming up and any expansion of it would be welcomed by me. I think it used to start at the beginning of October. Those were the good ol days.

[GetUrban]

But I’m looking forward to “springing forward” again next year. Hopefully the powers that be won’t eff with Daylight Savings Time and change it from what we do now.

My biggest fear is That they'll go to DST year-round. DST is proven to be a bullshlt theory, and farmers don't even like it, which they were the reason it was argued for in the beginning. I will enjoy my standard time coming up and any expansion of it would be welcomed by me. I think it used to start at the beginning of October. Those were the good ol days.

I think over many, many years there has been a pretty strong public opinion and consensus that DST is a good thing. But if it turns into some big partisan issue I could see someone use it to garner more votes, kind of like mask and vaccine mandates have become polarizing issues. Rubio spoke against DST recently. Generally, I remember farmers being against DST since they like to get up early when the roosters start crowing.

[Busguy2010]

I think over many, many years there has been a pretty strong public opinion and consensus that DST is a good thing. But if it turns into some big partisan issue I could see someone use it to garner more votes, kind of like mask and vaccine mandates have become polarizing issues. Rubio spoke against DST recently. Generally, I remember farmers being against DST since they like to get up early when the roosters start crowing.

I wish it could at least be 50/50, or closer to it as the the amount of time spent in either DST or Standard. As it stands, we spend 2/3 of the year in DST. I wish we could add October and March. Then it would be 50/50. But I digress, it will never happen.

[Brad]

...And it's back again (this time being depicted way stronger and on the ECMWF which in general is more reliable). Don't be surprised if things keep flip-flopping as we get closer though so until there is good model agreement and consistency on different model runs, confidence (especially in specifics) is EXTREMELY low. The ECMWF is slightly faster with things too moving this big storm into the region around November 11th.

That said, this would be a pretty powerful storm if it actually happens (like I said yesterday, wouldn't surprise me with this warmup expected in the next few days):

Obviously, if this played out as depicted, Omaha would end up on the warm side of the low so the only snow we'd get as probably as cold air wraps around the low and eventually transitions things from rain to snow here but it's way too far out to know any of those details since model agreement is still low. It would be a blizzard for people to our west and north, though, with possibly an ice storm for some too...

Thanks for the update. Should be good timing, when flying around yesterday it looked like most of the crops were out, but next Friday you think they would be really close.

[Busguy2010]

Yippee! I stayed up partly because I wanted to see the clock switch from 1:59 to 1:00. It just feels so right. I mean I'm usually up this late anyway, but I tell ya it feels so much better in November than it does in March.

[stormchaser]

Potential still exists for a few flakes of snow this coming week in the Omaha area (though almost all of our precip will be rain). However, lots of uncertainty still exists with exactly where this storm will track and consequently where the snow will actually fall. In either case, accumulating snow should remain north of Omaha (way north of Omaha if the GFS verifies but if the ECMWF verifies, parts of northern NE could get some minor accumulations (with heavier stuff north into the Dakotas/MN) as cold air eventually wraps around the low and pulls snow down into the area.

In addition, very strong winds should be expected so if nothing else, it's going to feel cold/brisk for a few days anyway before another ridge moves in around the 15th or 16th with depicted highs back close to 60. It's a pretty safe bet another strong winter storm will occur in the northern plains a few days later - probably around the 20th (roughly) as the current pattern looks to continue.

[Busguy2010]

Oh yeah, gonna be a cold one this upcoming weekend. High s struggling to break 40.

[stormchaser]

Odds continue to increase that Omaha will get its first snowfall later this week (probably Friday the 12th) as snow wraps around a strong storm system expected to impact the Dakotas and northern MN with possibly a blizzard and moves south/southeast into our area.

Keep in mind, surface temps are still warm yet so any snow that falls will mostly melt on impact so despite what the latest ECMWF shows, accumulations are unlikely in most areas in Nebraska (aside from a dusting in a few areas if snowfall rates are heavy enough or occur before sunrise).

Depicted snow totals based on the 12z ECMWF:

[Busguy2010]

That continues to look like almost nothing in Omaha. The NWS ain't biting so far, as they are calling for rain on Wednesday into Thursday with a tiny rain chance on Thursday into Friday. We're talking like 15%. And the low is forecast at 33 for that tiny precipitation chance. Not saying we won't see a flake or two fall in and around Omaha, at some point, but I don't think it gets my time of day... The thunder and rain chances are more worth it, even though they are also pretty darn low. Temperatures for Friday - Saturday also trended up a little.

[stormchaser]

That continues to look like almost nothing in Omaha. The NWS ain't biting so far, as they are calling for rain on Wednesday into Thursday with a tiny rain chance on Thursday into Friday. We're talking like 15%. And the low is forecast at 33 for that tiny precipitation chance. Not saying we won't see a flake or two fall in and around Omaha, at some point, but I don't think it gets my time of day... The thunder and rain chances are more worth it, even though they are also pretty darn low. Temperatures for Friday - Saturday also trended up a little.

Yep, just the first flakes of the year - nothing major

[Busguy2010]

Yep, just the first flakes of the year - nothing major

And the timing of it, after 3am, means most of us won't even see it happen, if it does.

[stormchaser]

Yep, just the first flakes of the year - nothing major

And the timing of it, after 3am, means most of us won't even see it happen, if it does.

Ehh, if the ECMWF verifies, some will occur during daylight hours too on Friday