2021 Weather thread-

[Busguy2010]

Ehh, if the ECMWF verifies, some will occur during daylight hours too on Friday

Barely. Talking like the break of dawn if it were to hang on that late. And its less than a 10% chance.

[stormchaser]

Ehh, if the ECMWF verifies, some will occur during daylight hours too on Friday

Barely. Talking like the break of dawn if it were to hang on that late. And its less than a 10% chance.

I'm not sure what you're looking at - not the ECMWF though (to clarify, my comments are in regards to what the ECMWF - aka Euro forecast model is showing specifically). I realize official forecasts are likely different than that though - I will explain why below.

If the ECMWF verifies, the snow would start around 8 AM (roughly) and continue to about Noon/1 PM before precip dies out/transitions to rain.

Below is the simulated radar from the 12z ECMWF for Friday at 18z (Noon this time of year):


That said, the reason chances are low on some of the forecasts out there is that there is still uncertainty in the exact placement/track of the low. The ECMWF has the low further west and south and consequently, snow hits the Omaha area. The GFS on the other hand has the low further east and north causing the snow to miss our area to the northeast. Anytime this happens, forecasters often just take a blend of what the 2 models show to "guesstimate" how things will play out (playing it safe). Since the GFS is faster with timing and further east, I'm sure that is what is happening here. A "blend" of the 2 would translate to a lower chance of snow in Omaha and occurring during the overnight hours if it does.

At this point, though, I'd favor the ECMWF over the GFS. Here is why:

• Historically the ECMWF is more reliable with these types of storm systems.

• The GFS has slowly been trending toward what the ECMWF is showing with recent model runs.

• The ECMWF has had several runs where it's been pretty consistent with things, the GFS has been pretty unrealistic with snow totals, etc in northern MN (among other things) with this storm making it hard for me to believe anything it is showing at this point.

Realistically we won't really have a good idea though until medium-range models (like the NAM and 3KM NAM) pick up on the storm and even then we might not know until there is better model agreement. Only thing we can do at this point is to watch for trends to see if either of the forecast models are trending things toward what the other one is showing (which is what has been happening on the GFS like I said - it's been trending toward the ECMWF). Does that mean things won't completely change? Nope - pretty good chance they will - especially since we are still several days out.

[Omaha Cowboy]

That continues to look like almost nothing in Omaha. The NWS ain't biting so far, as they are calling for rain on Wednesday into Thursday with a tiny rain chance on Thursday into Friday. We're talking like 15%. And the low is forecast at 33 for that tiny precipitation chance. Not saying we won't see a flake or two fall in and around Omaha, at some point, but I don't think it gets my time of day... The thunder and rain chances are more worth it, even though they are also pretty darn low. Temperatures for Friday - Saturday also trended up a little.

Yep, just the first flakes of the year - nothing major

I’m going to give an untrained, unprofessional opinion- and say snow for the Omaha area this Friday will be much ado about nothing..

Much to the chagrin of our fellow forum member busguy, whose made it pretty clear over the last several years that (for the most part) he absolutely loves crappy (especially winter) weather, lol…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

I’m going to give an untrained, unprofessional opinion- and say snow for the Omaha area this Friday will be much ado about nothing..

Much to the chagrin of our fellow forum member busguy, whose made it pretty clear over the last several years that (for the most part) he absolutely loves crappy (especially winter) weather, lol…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I just tell it like it is. If you live here, yer gonna deal with that kind of weather. As much as you don't like it, it seems you tolerate it, as much as I do with the hot weather in the Summer. I personally am not ready for it to snow, but I am ready for cool temperatures. I love me a sunny, 40-50 degree day. We respectfully have different preferences in the weather, and I appreciate that.

[Busguy2010]

I'm not sure what you're looking at - not the ECMWF though (to clarify, my comments are in regards to what the ECMWF - aka Euro forecast model is showing specifically). I realize official forecasts are likely different than that though - I will explain why below.

I reference the NWS graphical forecast.

I understand as time goes on, things can change dramatically, which is why there are multiple models and forecasting is a |expletive|. I appreciate you sharing your resources with us so we can be aware of what could happen. While there is a lot of variance when you look that far ahead, they sometimes verify, and I appreciate your reporting.

[stormchaser]

I'm not sure what you're looking at - not the ECMWF though (to clarify, my comments are in regards to what the ECMWF - aka Euro forecast model is showing specifically). I realize official forecasts are likely different than that though - I will explain why below.

I reference the NWS graphical forecast.

I understand as time goes on, things can change dramatically, which is why there are multiple models and forecasting is a |expletive|. I appreciate you sharing your resources with us so we can be aware of what could happen. While there is a lot of variance when you look that far ahead, they sometimes verify, and I appreciate your reporting.

Ahh, yeah the NWS is obviously always a good resource to utilize.

Happy to share my thoughts/opinion and resources. It will be interesting to see how things actually play out (like normal).

The 00z GFS has continued the trend of aligning more with what the ECMWF shows and now shows snow hitting Omaha (albeit barely). It’s also trended slower with its timing so that too is more similar to the ECMWF. Assuming these trends continue, I’d expect the NWS (and others) to start increasing snow chances for Omaha for Thursday night/Friday. While accumulations will be unlikely in our area, strong winds in addition to the snow falling could cause some visibility issues at times (though nothing major).

[Omaha Cowboy]

I watched Bill Randby’s 7 day forecast last night- he certainly talked about the cooler temperatures and windy conditions coming on late Thursday into Friday..

But as far as snow, he was indicating parts of South Dakota could get 1-2 inches of snow out of this system..None stretching as far south as the Omaha metro..which is absolutely fine by me ..

We’ll definitely see how this shakes out…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

I watched Bill Randby’s 7 day forecast last night- he certainly talked about the cooler temperatures and windy conditions coming on late Thursday into Friday..

But as far as snow, he was indicating parts of South Dakota could get 1-2 inches of snow out of this system..None stretching as far south as the Omaha metro..which is absolutely fine by me ..

We’ll definitely see how this shakes out…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

We won't see accumulating snow this far south anyway, that's for sure - there is a chance of some snow in the area. Whether or not Omaha itself sees any flakes, is still pretty uncertain (it will be scattered). Most models get the edge of the snow to roughly the Missouri Valley area but precip is dying out as it moves south/southeast and may or may not actually make it to Omaha before it dies out or transitions to rain. Either way, it will be very minor with no accumulation (if it happens at all). It would just be flurries...

[Busguy2010]

There remains a very small chance of flurries on Friday in the early am. Wouldn't be surprised if they remove it, its so small. But the bigger story is how cold its supposed to be on Friday. A brief high of 38, but most of the daylight hours will be spent in the low to mid 30's, with wind chills down to the low 20's. Some 20 degrees below average, with wind chills over 30 degrees below average. Gonna be an ugly day.

[stormchaser]

There remains a very small chance of flurries on Friday in the early am. Wouldn't be surprised if they remove it, its so small. But the bigger story is how cold its supposed to be on Friday. A brief high of 38, but most of the daylight hours will be spent in the low to mid 30's, with wind chills down to the low 20's. Some 20 degrees below average, with wind chills over 30 degrees below average. Gonna be an ugly day.

They may or may not remove it but I'd be surprised if there aren't at least some flakes in the area. Omaha itself may or may not see it since the activity will be scattered. The cold temps and wind will be the biggest change though for most people in our area.

[Omaha Cowboy]

I watched Bill Randby’s 7 day forecast last night- he certainly talked about the cooler temperatures and windy conditions coming on late Thursday into Friday..

But as far as snow, he was indicating parts of South Dakota could get 1-2 inches of snow out of this system..None stretching as far south as the Omaha metro..which is absolutely fine by me ..

We’ll definitely see how this shakes out…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

We won't see accumulating snow this far south anyway, that's for sure - there is a chance of some snow in the area. Whether or not Omaha itself sees any flakes, is still pretty uncertain (it will be scattered). Most models get the edge of the snow to roughly the Missouri Valley area but precip is dying out as it moves south/southeast and may or may not actually make it to Omaha before it dies out or transitions to rain. Either way, it will be very minor with no accumulation (if it happens at all). It would just be flurries...

Right on..

I watch Randby’s 7 day last night and he said Friday will be cold and blustery, but only maybe a snowflake or 2 mixed in to anything we might get this far south (in the Omaha metro)…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

Below shows a simulated radar from the latest short-range HRRR forecast model for today and tomorrow. You'll see why this forecast is so challenging to see if Omaha sees any flakes/flurries tomorrow or not.

As shown in the animation, the low pressure (which starts out in WI), will move north...then northwest....then west....then soutwest...then south and finally east/southeast before moving out of the area. How quickly it shifts directions will determine exactly how far south the snow ends up (that in addition to how quickly the precip dies).

If anyone is curious, the technical term for this is the low pressure "occludes" (the same thing often happens with tornado producing "mesos" before the storm cycles and often produces again). Basically what is happening here is the low pressure gets so strong and "wraps up" so much (like a spinning top toy) that it cuts off from the jet stream and causes dry air to get pulled up from the southwest which starts wrapping around the low and eventually cuts off the moisture supply to the low (which is coming from the gulf of Mexico). This is why the precip dies out - no moisture supply, no precip.

Always an interesting scenario when this happens.

Anyhow, here is the animation loop (I slowed it way down so it may take a little bit to fully load):

[Brad]

Blizzard warning only 4 hours north of us.

[Coyote]

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/US.png

[stormchaser]

Based on radar trends and short range models, I’d be shocked if Omaha doesn’t get snow late tonight into tomorrow morning. No accumulation obviously but still some snow showers/flurries…

[Brad]

Based on radar trends and short range models, I’d be shocked if Omaha doesn’t get snow late tonight into tomorrow morning. No accumulation obviously but still some snow showers/flurries…

Looks like its already trying to change over to snow from Oakland, NE up to Sioux City

[stormchaser]

Based on radar trends and short range models, I’d be shocked if Omaha doesn’t get snow late tonight into tomorrow morning. No accumulation obviously but still some snow showers/flurries…

Looks like its already trying to change over to snow from Oakland, NE up to Sioux City

Yep, and precip is more widespread than expected

[stormchaser]

Snowing now in parts of Omaha - Millard and Bellvue area reporting snow (though it's isolated)...

[stormchaser]

A steadier band of snow is moving south toward Omaha. Accumulations are still unlikely but wind-driven light snow anyway. The majority the snow looks like it will be done by 1 PM - so my forecast that I posted on Sunday is verifying fairly well (timing, etc).

Latest radar showing the band of snow to our north that's quickly moving toward us...

[Busguy2010]

I just saw a couple flakes. Talking like one per cubic yard, probably many times less than that actually.

[stormchaser]

I just saw a couple flakes. Talking like one per cubic yard, probably many times less than that actually.

I’ve seen on and off steadier stuff but it’s been very light/flurries (as expected). Assuming it holds together, steadier/more widespread snow will hit Omaha shortly as it moves in from the north - possibly heavy enough to cause some visibility issues with all the wind. Either way, it still counts as our first snowfall and forecast verified ;)

[stormchaser]

Latest radar showing the band of steady/heavier snow about to move into Omaha from the north (assuming it holds together):

[Louie]

I've been getting flurries in Dundee since the sun came up. Curious to see the band move through.

[Coyote]

Flurries are on weather this morning.

[Busguy2010]

Okay, now it is coming down a bit more like I expected. Still obviously very light, but more detectable than earlier. Its kinda cute. Nice ambiance if you ask me.

[stormchaser]

The back edge of the snow is moving south through the Blair/Missouri Valley areas now and should mostly be done in Omaha by around 2 PM...

[stormchaser]

Looking like a quiet weather pattern for a while now again in our area based on long-range models.

A big storm is expected over the next couple of days to pass way north of here in far southern Canada (which is part of the reason why we warm up today and tomorrow as moisture feeds up into the storm). After a cold front passes Tuesday night we will mostly be in a northwest flow from now until Thanksgiving (possibly even later - unless things change of course which they can obviously) which basically means seasonable temps and fairly quiet for storms with occasional shots of colder air.

Not looking like we will get our first accumulating snow in Omaha anytime soon at least - unless things change.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Looking like a quiet weather pattern for a while now again in our area based on long-range models.

Not looking like we will get our first accumulating snow in Omaha anytime soon at least - unless things change.

And this is a wonderful thing.. Enjoying the 70 degree mid November weather the next couple of days …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Coyote]

One last in November?

[skinzfan23]

I didn't really see any mention of rain in the forecast on Saturday, yet we got .60 in in Bellevue. I know this was pretty isolated, so many in the metro may not have gotten much at all.

[Omaha Cowboy]

One last in November?

Probably. I know I’m going to enjoy breaking out the shorts the next couple of days…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

So I'm quite late with the October moisture report, but here it is:

Normal October: 2.32" rain +.5" snow = 2.37" moisture
October 2021 : 4.75" rain, no snow
Differential : + 2.38" moisture in October

Ahead by over 4" on the year, which is great! Taking a big chunk out of the decade deficit of what is now only 9.63"

[stormchaser]

I didn't really see any mention of rain in the forecast on Saturday, yet we got .60 in in Bellevue. I know this was pretty isolated, so many in the metro may not have gotten much at all.

Yeah, it was definitely heavier for many people than expected...

[BRoss]

Perfect day to get out and finish up cleaning up the yard for winter!

[Busguy2010]

Perfect day to get out and finish up cleaning up the yard for winter!

Too warm for me. They way I been dressing the last few days, it was shocking how much it warmed up. I agree, it was definitely nice, but not for November. I expect 50's tops in November. I hope everybody enjoyed it, because it does appear it was the last warm day of the year.

[Brad]

Perfect day to get out and finish up cleaning up the yard for winter!

I agree, it was great! This even was also awesome to be out after sunset.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Perfect day to get out and finish up cleaning up the yard for winter!

I agree, it was great! This even was also awesome to be out after sunset.

An awesome weather day- so glad I was off work today to enjoy this fantastic fall weather in Mid November …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[BRoss]

Perfect day to get out and finish up cleaning up the yard for winter!

I agree, it was great! This even was also awesome to be out after sunset.

Yeah, I took my dog on a walk until sometime after 6. Before sunset I was even wearing shorts.

[BRoss]

Perfect day to get out and finish up cleaning up the yard for winter!

I agree, it was great! This even was also awesome to be out after sunset.

An awesome weather day- so glad I was off work today to enjoy this fantastic fall weather in Mid November …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I started work early and took a short lunch to get out by 3:30. Someone tried to schedule a meeting from 4-5 and I was just like "lol, no".

[BRoss]

By the way, my weather station said we ended up hitting 76 yesterday. I was worried it wouldn't actually hit 70 since we've been under the forecast lately.