2021 Weather thread-

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:32 pm

I see Randby is up to 70% chance of snow Friday now not that I’m at all surprised though it's kinda sad how far behind the TV networks are sometimes.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:46 am

00z NAM is in and is continuing the shift south. Puts the heavier snow in the Omaha area now with moderate/heavy snowfall rates depicted around Noon on Friday.

Based on model trends currently, 2”-6” snow totals (possibly more) seem like a reasonable/safe forecast in Omaha currently with some heavier amounts just north of Omaha. Unfortunately this will likely be the heavy/slushy type snow. Power outages will be possible depending how windy it gets (and obviously depending on how much snow we actually get).

To clarify, it’s still too early to know but odds continue to increase that we will get some “plowable snow” out of this…

Either way, might not be worth spending too much time clearing the snow. Nice warm up expected next week again so it should melt fast.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:55 am

I'm thinking it'll be more of a "wintry mix" type of deal. Temperatures hovering in the mid and upper 30's all day Friday to me means most of what falls will be a mix of rain, and sleet, and any snow that falls will immediately melt, until temperatures dip below freezing toward the end of the "event", where we may see some actual snow. Not much rain or snow is forecast at this point. As of right now, I'd say if it would have been cold enough, we'd still only get a little over an inch of snow.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:00 am

Busguy2010 wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:55 am I'm thinking it'll be more of a "wintry mix" type of deal. Temperatures hovering in the mid and upper 30's all day Friday to me means most of what falls will be a mix of rain, and sleet, and any snow that falls will immediately melt, until temperatures dip below freezing toward the end of the "event", where we may see some actual snow. Not much rain or snow is forecast at this point. As of right now, I'd say if it would have been cold enough, we'd still only get a little over an inch of snow.

It might be but not based on current model trends anyway. If things verified as shown on the most recent model runs, a transition to all snow will occur relatively quickly. I think you’re looking at temps based on older model guidance (even if it’s from the NWS). At this point who knows, like I said before, actual storm track will be key

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Dec 08, 2021 3:09 am

Based on the 00z NAM, temps around noon will be 29/30 in Omaha. Plenty cold for accumulating snow - especially with the moderate/heavy snowfall rates being depicted at that time.

Of course this is just 1 model run of 1 forecast model and things can change quick, but the trend toward accumulating snow in Omaha is continuing.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Dec 08, 2021 2:25 pm

Based on the 12z NAM this morning anyway, a fairly sizable shift back to the north has been observed with the storm track of this storm. Enough so that it could mean Omaha basically gets missed by this (lots of dry air the closer you get to the low pressure so if this happens, we may not get much precip). Too early to know and I'm not sure I completely buy the shift north but will need to keep an eye on additional model runs...

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:30 pm

Friday afternoon (5:50 pm) we should see some snow this evening.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:14 pm

Ehh, unless the potential storm track shifts back south again. This is looking like a bust for the Omaha metro now. Still plenty of time for things to change yet but right now odds aren't looking good for much, if any, accumulating snow locally.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:15 pm

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:30 pm

Coyote wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:15 pm

Yep - forecast models have since trended north with the storm since this video was made. Almost all of them now show Omaha getting little, if any, accumulating snow. Unless things trend back south (which is possible), accumulating snow in Omaha looks unlikely.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:34 pm

18z HRRR simulated radar showing how most of the snow has shifted north as a result of a shift north in storm track. To clarify, Omaha will probably get some snow...but accumulations look way less likely at this point.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:01 am

stormchaser wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:34 pm 18z HRRR simulated radar showing how most of the snow has shifted north as a result of a shift north in storm track. To clarify, Omaha will probably get some snow...but accumulations look way less likely at this point.

This is great news. I hope the frozen precipitation misses us completely

…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:16 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:01 am This is great news. I hope the frozen precipitation misses us completely …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Do you not want it to snow, like, at all, ever?

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:02 am

Anyway, the NWS currently calling for about a 10th inch of rain, and like maybe a half inch of snow and a little it of freezing rain. Could be a little messy, but not looking like a big deal. Biggest reason I want it to snow now is so I can stop hearing crotch rockets, Harleys, and muscle cars zipping around every Thursday, Friday, and Saturday night. Hopefully this will take care of that. On the cold nights, I have noticed how remarkably quiet it can be. Step outside after 10 or 11, and you can hear a pin drop some nights. That's my favorite part of cold weather and or snow.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Thu Dec 09, 2021 5:57 am

Busguy2010 wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:16 am
Omaha Cowboy wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 3:01 am This is great news. I hope the frozen precipitation misses us completely …

Ciao..LiO…Peace
Do you not want it to snow, like, at all, ever?

Let me explain it this way-

I put up with frozen precipitation because I live in (and prefer to live in) Omaha..It’s my hometown..I love and care about this city and metro, so (again) I put up with it..it’s a happenstance of reality living in the Midwest..

That said, if I never saw frozen precipitation (like snow) again for the rest of my life..I’d be a perfectly happy camper…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Dec 09, 2021 1:42 pm

Most models continue to shift this storm system for tomorrow further north which is continuing to decrease the chances of accumulating snow in Omaha. At most, it appears to be a dusting up to an inch of snow in Omaha itself currently.

Another big storm is showing up on long-range models for the middle part of next week. However, this one is far enough north and brings with it enough warm air (Temps may be in the 70s) that we could actually get some severe weather in parts of NE - even potential tornadoes (no joke) if dewpoints end up slightly higher than currently depicted (something to keep an eye on).

Simulated radar from the latest 00z ECMWF for Wednesday, December 15th showing the potential thunderstorms in parts of NE:

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:40 pm

Wow, wouldn't that be strange... And I know this has happened before, but the longer the snow holds off, the more it worries me that we'll have a relatively dry winter. But I just remember the last couple years, it held off, then dumped near record amounts in January and February, which I'd be fine with. Last thing I want to see is little snow. Guess it's technically not winter yet.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:43 pm

18z HRRR showing right around 2" of snow in Omaha with this storm. Nothing major but enough to make the ground white. Still should melt fast though...

18z Simulated radar loops showing how this storm is expected to unfold with snow starting locally early/mid-afternoon Friday and lasting until about midnight...

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:54 pm

Better than nothin.

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:57 pm

Busguy2010 wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 4:02 am Anyway, the NWS currently calling for about a 10th inch of rain, and like maybe a half inch of snow and a little it of freezing rain. Could be a little messy, but not looking like a big deal. Biggest reason I want it to snow now is so I can stop hearing crotch rockets, Harleys, and muscle cars zipping around every Thursday, Friday, and Saturday night. Hopefully this will take care of that. On the cold nights, I have noticed how remarkably quiet it can be. Step outside after 10 or 11, and you can hear a pin drop some nights. That's my favorite part of cold weather and or snow.

Well you do have a point there! I’m no fan of icy roads, or shoveling snow, but a gentle nighttime snow renders even the city deafeningly silent. And yes people are forced to park their noisemakers in the garage for hopefully a few months.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:02 am

Sean Everson of KETV indicated Omaha could get a dusting to up to 2 inches..with whatever snow we get, falling between 6pm and midnight Friday..

Let’s hope it’s nothing to a dusting at most…

I saw a peek at the forecast next week- highs in the 50’s and 60’s..Diggin’ that..In fact, I just saw Randby’s 7 day and this coming Wednesday, December 15th, the forecast high is 70!

…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Dec 10, 2021 4:08 am

Omaha Cowboy wrote: Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:02 am I saw a peek at the forecast next week- highs in the 50’s and 60’s..Diggin’ that..In fact, I just saw Randby’s 7 day and this coming Wednesday, December 15th, the forecast high is 70! …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

If we do get that high, it would be the latest 70 degree day on record... And even if we *only* get to 69 or 67, or even just 65, we would smash the daily record of 61. The next latest, warmest day was December 18th 1976 with a high of 69.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Fri Dec 10, 2021 2:56 pm

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Fri Dec 10, 2021 6:27 pm

Well this is kinda exciting, seeing we havent had any precipitation since NOVEMBER 10th! As meager as the precipitation is right now, it has begun within the last 30 minites. Nice to see something different for once.

Coyote · Post by **Coyote** » Fri Dec 10, 2021 9:22 pm

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:47 pm

Starting to mix with sleet/snow in the Millard area now…

Post by **Brad** » Sat Dec 11, 2021 1:40 am

Accumulation of cars and grass.

Also, quite the tornado outbreak to our south east.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Dec 11, 2021 2:29 am

At least where I've been all evening, cars parked there from the beginning have a solid 1/2 to 3/4 inch on them already. Its coming down "pretty good" for what it was forecast. I'd say we end up with easily 1-2", rather than struggling to get 1".

Post by **Brad** » Sat Dec 11, 2021 2:35 am

Busguy2010 wrote: Sat Dec 11, 2021 2:29 am At least where I've been all evening, cars parked there from the beginning have a solid 1/2 to 3/4 inch on them already. Its coming down "pretty good" for what it was forecast. I'd say we end up with easily 1-2", rather than struggling to get 1".

Seems like the heavy bands are already moving north, not sure is more will develop.

The Tornado Warnings down south have also have had a few Tornado Emergencies. There is a Mass Casualty Event at a Nursing Home in Monette, Arkansas.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Dec 11, 2021 3:58 am

It came down good pror to 8, then seemed to slow down, but now for about an hour has been coming down pretty impressively for our first real snow. I'm enjoying it.

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Dec 11, 2021 4:04 am

Looks like theres one more tail end glob of heavier stuff yet to move in.

At the latest newscast I saw earlier, they said 1-3", and now seeing that big blob, I wouldnt be surprised if we saw closer to the upper end.

GetUrban · Post by **GetUrban** » Sat Dec 11, 2021 5:52 am

I’m glad we’re getting some much-needed moisture. Hopefully it will all quickly melt and soak in tomorrow.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sat Dec 11, 2021 8:30 am

GetUrban wrote: Sat Dec 11, 2021 5:52 am I’m glad we’re getting some much-needed moisture. Hopefully it will all quickly melt and soak in tomorrow.

Thankfully it should all be gone by tomorrow afternoon..if not, definitely by Sunday as the weather turns great again with highs in the 50’s…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sat Dec 11, 2021 4:43 pm

I've seen initial reports of mostly in the 1.3 range, but there are a couple outliers in NW Omaha that reported 2.9 and 3.3. I looked out the window about 6am, and during my brief eyeball measurement, I'd have to say I got in the lower 2's. Maybe 2.3, just a guess. Overall, I enjoyed it. Was very pretty coming down and didn't cause much of a travel issue, and might not even be worth shoveling, though if I had the time to do it today, I might have.

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Dec 11, 2021 5:41 pm

Snowfall reports from across Omaha:

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Dec 11, 2021 5:53 pm

The threat for storms including the potential for strong/severe storms and even tornadoes continues to look possible for parts of our area on Wednesday (12-15) based on the latest GFS and ECMWF. I understand the NWS only has a slight chance of rain currently for Wednesday - but model data is showing the potential currently anyway (and has been for a few days already).

nativeomahan · Post by **nativeomahan** » Sat Dec 11, 2021 8:01 pm

I live mid city and I measured .7” on my patio table. Almost nothing on the patio, driveway, sidewalk, which made me happy as our shovels remain in storage.

Post by **Omaha Cowboy** » Sat Dec 11, 2021 8:21 pm

About an inch (likely less) in my area of West Omaha (120th-132nd and West Center area)..

Most is melted..All evidence of this storm will be gone by this time tomorrow…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

stormchaser · Post by **stormchaser** » Sat Dec 11, 2021 10:01 pm

I feel like I need to stress how potentially dangerous Wednesday December 15 is currently looking in parts of our area (especially eastern NE/western IA) - especially since there isn’t much yet (aside from my posts on here) that’s warning people (and it’s not the time of year people obviously pay attention to storm threats…especially since it just snowed).

I’ve honestly never seen parameters like depicted that are this far north in mid-December (nothing even close tbh). I’m not trying to hype, I’m not trying to frighten people but if this setup on Wednesday verifies anywhere close to shown, it has the potential of being a day that we remember for a long time (fast moving, damaging tornado potential - especially if low level winds end up a bit more southeasterly). Considering both the GFS and ECMWF are very similar, odds are about as high as they can be right now. That doesn’t mean things won’t change but people need to pay attention.

A few images for other weather geeks based on the 12z GFS:

Busguy2010 · Post by **Busguy2010** » Sun Dec 12, 2021 1:29 am

I can't wait to see the US convective outlook on that. If what you're saying turns out, I'd be very interested to what level of severe risk they give us.