2021 Weather thread-

[Busguy2010]

I think they're finding climate change is as much or more a concern with inconsistency and unpredictability as it is the overall global temperature rising. This December fits that bill. Going back, May was actually cooler than normal, as I recall I wasn't comfortable planting my summer stuff until like the third into fourth week of May, and then boom, it was like someone flipped the switch to turn the furnace on. February as we remember had our record cold temperatures along with huge amounts of snow preceding it. Like you never know what you're gonna get. I think it would be just lovely if somehow the temperature could be the average temperature year-round and do away with the extremes in either direction.

[Louie]

I think they're finding climate change is as much or more a concern with inconsistency and unpredictability as it is the overall global temperature rising. This December fits that bill. Going back, May was actually cooler than normal, as I recall I wasn't comfortable planting my summer stuff until like the third into fourth week of May, and then boom, it was like someone flipped the switch to turn the furnace on. February as we remember had our record cold temperatures along with huge amounts of snow preceding it. Like you never know what you're gonna get. I think it would be just lovely if somehow the temperature could be the average temperature year-round and do away with the extremes in either direction.

Yes, the volatility of it all is definitely the most visible effect of it right now. Less water trapped in ice = more water in the atmosphere = more firepower for storm systems and weather patterns.

[stormchaser]

I think they're finding climate change is as much or more a concern with inconsistency and unpredictability as it is the overall global temperature rising. This December fits that bill. Going back, May was actually cooler than normal, as I recall I wasn't comfortable planting my summer stuff until like the third into fourth week of May, and then boom, it was like someone flipped the switch to turn the furnace on. February as we remember had our record cold temperatures along with huge amounts of snow preceding it. Like you never know what you're gonna get. I think it would be just lovely if somehow the temperature could be the average temperature year-round and do away with the extremes in either direction.

Yes, the volatility of it all is definitely the most visible effect of it right now. Less water trapped in ice = more water in the atmosphere = more firepower for storm systems and weather patterns.

Correct - the additional water and the additional heat = a bad combination and the "extremes" with storm systems will start happening at an increasing frequency, unfortunately...

[Busguy2010]

When ya think of it, everything about this year was delayed... February and March both well rooted in Winter, May being still a cool one, no severe weather until July 10th, now December being record warm with tornadoes and having had barely any snow. Just weird how the weather seemingly hasn't lined up with the solstices this year.

[Erik]

Seems like we’ve had a bunch of mild December’s for a while now. Then it finally gets colder sometime in January. Two of the last three February’s have been cold and snowy.

December has been the fastest warming month the last few decades

I wonder what the science behind that is. Like are we holding more residual heat from the summer? Because with climate change, March could just as easily be heating up as fast as December but it isn't.

Give me a few hours, I am out right now and am about to get my booster.

I have been a weather geek since I was like five. Always reading about the structures of individual storms, systems and climate. That and have been an avid follower of the climate sciences and reading about how the micro changes affect the overall system, been doing that since the early 2000s.

The only reason I am a system's engineer and not a climate scientist is that I decided on one passion for work and the other is better to remain a hobby.

But I am going to put together an easy to follow summary in a little bit.

[Louie]

Seems like we’ve had a bunch of mild December’s for a while now. Then it finally gets colder sometime in January. Two of the last three February’s have been cold and snowy.

December has been the fastest warming month the last few decades

I wonder what the science behind that is. Like are we holding more residual heat from the summer? Because with climate change, March could just as easily be heating up as fast as December but it isn't.

Give me a few hours, I am out right now and am about to get my booster.

I have been a weather geek since I was like five. Always reading about the structures of individual storms, systems and climate. That and have been an avid follower of the climate sciences and reading about how the micro changes affect the overall system, been doing that since the early 2000s.

The only reason I am a system's engineer and not a climate scientist is that I decided on one passion for work and the other is better to remain a hobby.

But I am going to put together an easy to follow summary in a little bit.

Sickkkkkkk

[stormchaser]

I have been a weather geek since I was like five. Always reading about the structures of individual storms, systems and climate. That and have been an avid follower of the climate sciences and reading about how the micro changes affect the overall system, been doing that since the early 2000s.

The only reason I am a system's engineer and not a climate scientist is that I decided on one passion for work and the other is better to remain a hobby.

Same - been a weather geek pretty much my entire life. The only reason I didn't go into Meteorology is that I struggle with math and it requires a decent amount of math for a degree. Instead, marketing is my career, and I forecast weather/chase storms as a hobby (saw my 61st tornado since I started chasing in 2006 on December 15th)...

[Brad]

crazy stat here...

[stormchaser]

crazy stat here...

Crazy - but also not at all surprising based on how everything was coming together. Another concern may be that this is a sign of things to come once we head into March, etc. Obviously, it's tough to know right now but if this pattern doesn't change or if we get a similar storm system, look out...

[stormchaser]

The reality is the December tornadoes may not be done yet in our area either...

Both of the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs are currently showing the potential for "round 2" around the end of the month (December 30th or 31st specifically). Obviously, it's too far out still to know if it will happen and what the track/timing of the storm will be but things appear to be coming together yet again currently anyway. Something to keep a close eye on in the coming days anyway...

[Busguy2010]

Would it warm up enough? The NWS has next Wednesday, the 29th at 28 degrees. Be hard to imagine it getting any more than 50 the day after. But you have more resources than I.

[stormchaser]

Would it warm up enough? The NWS has next Wednesday, the 29th at 28 degrees. Be hard to imagine it getting any more than 50 the day after. But you have more resources than I.

If things verified as shown, Omaha would likely be too far north and consequently too cold. A warm front and strong low pressure were depicted right near the NE/KS border into far southeast NE (south of Omaha) with highs pushing into the 60s along and south of the warm front.

That said, the 00z ECMWF has already backed off on the potential so who knows. It obviously could change back yet. Either way, odds are low at this point but something to keep an eye on as we get closer…

[stormchaser]

As I was saying yesterday, the threat of severe weather in our area had decreased for right around the new year. The reason it has decreased is that both models have shifted the potential storm systems track further south on recent runs (which isn't surprising). This trend has continued on the 12z model runs today. As a result of this shift south, the odds of a fairly strong snowstorm in parts of our area have increased but it will depend on the exact track/speed of the storm if it ends up being a big deal in our area.

It's too far out to know but models are in decent agreement (though with some timing and track differences which should be expected this far out). Either way looks like some active weather in our area as we switch into 2022 which will be interesting to see how things play out...

The latest 12z GFS (which is about 24 hours slower than the ECMWF and shifts the potential storm further south):


The latest 12z ECMWF (which is about 24 hours faster than the GFS and has a more northern track with the potential storm):

[Busguy2010]

The Weather channel now talking about it. Not necessarily that we can get storms here, but that it'll be a fairly substantial change in temperature. Finally ushering in real winter temps, perhaps.

[stormchaser]

The Weather channel now talking about it. Not necessarily that we can get storms here, but that it'll be a fairly substantial change in temperature. Finally ushering in real winter temps, perhaps.

Yeah, sometime between January 1st and 3rd I'd expect a pretty healthy snowstorm somewhere in our area (that doesn't mean Omaha itself will be hit - but somewhere not far away if it doesn't).

[nativeomahan]

Historically, early to mid January has seen some very severe snowstorms in Omaha.

[Erik]

Historically, early to mid January has seen some very severe snowstorms in Omaha.

Yep. Historically, Christmas to the first two or three weeks of January is the dead of our winter. Most of the wicked storms, coldest air and any staying power for snow on the ground (on the rarish occasion that our snow actually doesn't melt fast)

Occasionally we will have some crazy amplification of blocking highs or lows that can cause February to be as bad, like the last five years have been. Typically, February is noticeably warmer than January

[Brad]

58 today! I got the lawn mower out and did a little clean up mowing.

[Cermak]

58 today! I got the lawn mower out and did a little clean up mowing.

I thought about mowing yesterday, but didn’t. I know I’ve mowed a few times in early December but never around Christmas. Looks like the weather is supposed to get more seasonal sometime next week.

[stormchaser]

Odds continue to increase that a strong winter storm will impact our area next weekend (probably the 1st and/or 2nd of January) including the potential for 6” of snow or more and wind (though it’s too far out to really know the specifics). Both the 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF continue to be in relatively good agreement showing the potential storm (with some minor timing differences now).

If you have any travel plans (like I do), heads up. If things verify as shown, it will probably be our first true winter storm this year in the local area…

[Busguy2010]

Odds continue to increase that a strong winter storm will impact our area next weekend (probably the 1st and/or 2nd of January) including the potential for 6” of snow or more and wind (though it’s too far out to really know the specifics). Both the 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF continue to be in relatively good agreement showing the potential storm (with some minor timing differences now).

If you have any travel plans (like I do), heads up. If things verify as shown, it will probably be our first true winter storm this year in the local area…

I think any further discussion about a storm that will happen in January would be a good segue into the 2022 weather thread... Perhaps the above post should be the first... Mods?

[stormchaser]

Odds continue to increase that a strong winter storm will impact our area next weekend (probably the 1st and/or 2nd of January) including the potential for 6” of snow or more and wind (though it’s too far out to really know the specifics). Both the 00z GFS and 00z ECMWF continue to be in relatively good agreement showing the potential storm (with some minor timing differences now).

If you have any travel plans (like I do), heads up. If things verify as shown, it will probably be our first true winter storm this year in the local area…

I think any further discussion about a storm that will happen in January would be a good segue into the 2022 weather thread... Perhaps the above post should be the first... Mods?

Good point, I’ll post it over in a new thread…

2022 Weather Thread:
https://www.eomahaforums.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=22522

[Omaha Cowboy]

From today’s W-H-

“From the polar vortex to wildfires and flooding, Nebraska residents got another taste in 2021 of the potent consequences of the state’s naturally extreme weather in a climate changed world.

Indeed, the year was bookended by firsts: February brought the state’s first rolling blackouts as a result of record cold, and December brought that month’s first derecho anywhere in the nation and Nebraska’s first tornado swarm in the final month of the year.

The full extent of the year’s damaging weather will never be known since no agency keeps a tally. Known losses from the two storms with available data exceed $60 million.”..

It was indeed one of the more dramatic and odd weather years. I will say, for the most part, I really enjoyed the warmer and dry Fall and, minus Dec 15th, the great December weather..For those that crave the severe weather, 2021 certainly delivered that for the Omaha metro- the July 10th storm was a reminder of how bad these storms are as Omaha had been dodging the bullet for several years previously..

The complete W-H story link:

https://omaha.com/weather/from-a-polar- ... op-story-1

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

Just one final thing from me to wrap up 2021 weather discussion...

I took December off from the moisture report because there was nothing to report...

But, now that the year is over, I reviewed the moisture, and realized when the NWS changed what is "normal", my +- were a little off. So after fixing them, we are now, as of December 31st :

Ahead on the 2021 year by 2.31"

But behind by 10.44" on the decade (2020 and 2021).

So even though we were well ahead by the time October came around, November and December really cut into our 2021 surplus, pretty much by half. So any surplus we get any month going forward would be beneficial and much appreciated by me.

[Busguy2010]

Super cool link of top weather events of 2021:

https://www.weather.gov/oax/2021TopEvents