2022 Weather Thread

[stormchaser]

Forecasting winter storms (in particular) is difficult. This is because there are TONS of variables to consider and the tiniest change can make huge differences in how things play out. However, the same is true (to an extent) with severe weather too but winter storms are more noticeable because they typically impact more people (or a larger area anyway).

That being said, while I agree it is too far out to know specifically how much snow to expect in Omaha itself, it is 100% possible to know a range in this time frame with decent accuracy when good model agreement and run to run consistency exists (which in this case, there is currently). Can things change yet? Obviously - as we’ve recently seen they can change within hours of an event actually starting (like the dry air that hung on for way longer than expected with the last storm which decreased snow totals locally).

I assure you, I’ve been forecasting for myself for more than 15 years now (much of it while living in MN which has way more winter storms typically). Unless something quickly changes, this storm will produce 4”-7”+ of snow in our local area and will likely require winter storm watches to be issued (with the heaviest accumulations probably just east of Omaha in western IA and a sharp drop in totals west of Omaha). The biggest question marks that could impact those totals will be storm track and precipitation type questions (which is looking more like a mostly all snow event in our area but that can change yet obviously). Either way, enough snow to cause a mess…

[Cermak]

Looks like we are definitely getting some snow, evening commute could be a mess Friday. Will probably be using the snowblower for the first time this season.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Sean Everson on KETV is indicating the early models are showing possibly 3-6 inches of snow in the Omaha area starting later in the afternoon/early evening Friday..The Friday eve commute could be a mess..

We’ll see how this adjusts…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

Looks like winter storm watches have started to be issued for areas to our north. I'd expect these to be expanded south later today and include much of central/western IA and possibly far eastern NE (depending on what the 12z model runs show for storm track).

[stormchaser]

Winter storm watches have been issued east of Omaha into western/central IA. They may or may not be expanded west to include Omaha but for now, there is too much uncertainty on the western side of the expected heavier precip (in Omaha/far eastern NE) to issue them since there will likely be a very sharp drop-off in snow totals on the western edge and the exact storm track will determine where this sharp drop off ends up (something that's impossible to know with certainty right now). Either way, an eventual winter weather advisory in our local area would probably be more realistic - unless the track of the storm shifts west a bit more.

That said, snow totals in Omaha will probably be somewhere around 4 or 5 inches based on the current models anyway - possibly a few 6-inch totals out near Council Bluffs. Enough to cause travel issues Friday evening into early Saturday.

[Busguy2010]

Wow, I guess I just checked out, because I recall the year end 14 day forecast showed nothing. Now the NWS is saying 7". And hey, I'm cool with it.

[stormchaser]

Wow, I guess I just checked out, because I recall the year end 14 day forecast showed nothing. Now the NWS is saying 7". And hey, I'm cool with it.

7" of snow locally definitely isn't out of the question - especially if the 12z ECMWF verifies and especially in the Council Bluffs area (less likely in areas like Elhorn, Valley, etc). With how sharp the gradient is on the western edge of the heavier precip, it's going to probably be a pretty tricky forecast depending on where that ends up...

Depicted snow totals based on the 12z ECMWF are shown below. This may or may not verify as shown but the ECMWF has been very consistent with bringing significant snow accumulations into the Omaha area so don't be surprised if that is what happens. It also wouldn't surprise me if they expand winter storm watches west to include the far eastern counties in NE but there is still too much uncertainty (for now).

Something to also keep in mind that will make forecasting snow totals with this storm a bit challenging - precip will likely start out with air temps near freezing (in the low 30s). Because of this, some snow will probably melt as it falls initially. However, temps will drop into the 20s and conditions will become more ideal for the snow to accumulate quickly. How long this process takes for temps to drop will play a role in how much snow we get in Omaha (just another example of why forecasting snow storms can be EXTREMELY difficult).

[stormchaser]

Ehh, based on the most recent models. I'm leaning more towards 3"-5" of snow in Omaha itself (lower totals to the west, slightly more in the Council Bluffs area).

This is the type of setup though that yet again could be a "boom or bust" and bring out the "I wish I got paid to be wrong all the time people" that I love so much. If things shift east at all or if dry air/precip type doesn't transition to snow as quickly as expected, snow totals locally could be very low. If it shifts west at all or dry air ends up not being a big deal/precip ends up being all snow, then they could be higher.

Long story short, it's yet again a difficult forecast in our local area...

[Busguy2010]

Drats, NWS backed off. Now are saying 4.8", which still is satisfying enough. Also are talking about over a half inch of rain, which would also be pretty cool. Gonna be a messy day tomorrow.

[stormchaser]

A Winter weather advisory has been issued for Omaha. Officially 2"-4" of snow with 40mph wind gusts are expected. Not a huge storm locally but enough to cause some travel issues. The snow will likely be heavy and wet heart attack snow but at least it should be photogenic...

Here is the advisory text:

[Cermak]

A wet heavy snow. The snowblower should get a good work out, might even clog up. Parts of Iowa look to get hit much harder from this.

[Cermak]

Maybe not as much snow now possibly just a few inches. Freezing rain could be the biggest problem. Might not even need the snowblower.

[Brad]

Maybe not as much snow now possibly just a few inches. Freezing rain could be the biggest problem. Might not even need the snowblower.

Our high today will be 38, If there is freezing rain, its going to melt soon.

[Omaha Cowboy]

KETV has backed off their snow prediction for the metro- anywhere from 1-5 inches now..

It appears the further east, the higher the potential accumulation…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Coyote]

[Busguy2010]

I fear this will fizzle out on us. Still if we end up with 2" thats better than nothing, but I want a dam winter wonderland.

[stormchaser]

Rain should transition to sleet and then moderate/heavy snow in Omaha shortly. Already changed over in Elkhorn and will do the same as precip pushes east.

[Louie]

Rain should transition to sleet and then moderate/heavy snow in Omaha shortly. Already changed over in Elkhorn and will do the same as precip pushes east.

Seeing sleetish stuff in Dundee right now. Just switched over.

[Busguy2010]

Well, maybe I take that back. It is actually coming down pretty good, and earlier than the 6pm they eventually settled on.

[stormchaser]

I’m sure we will only end up with around 3” of snow…but considering they said 2-4” of snow, looks like the forecast will probably verify…

[Cermak]

It’s hard to tell how much snow I have at my house because of the wind, I would say at least an inch, it’s a sticky snow that is sticking to trees and light poles, it’s not light and powdery like the last snow. The wind is gusty at times. Overall a more impressive storm than I thought we would get about 6 hours ago. Kind of a neat little snowstorm.

[Busguy2010]

I definitely think the rate was more than 2" in the last six hours, but the wind blowing it around may not allow it to measure up to much. Had it not been so windy, I'd bet we would have widespread 4" already, with a couple more hours to go.

I'd have to say I'm fairly satisfied after fearing a let down earlier today.

[Busguy2010]

This definitely delivered. It is still coming down as hard as it ever did tonight. I looked outside and I see varying degrees of 2-6" depending on the surface and which side it's on. The streets are definitely well covered by now. I shoveled about 2" off my driveway prior to driving on it, and that was over 3 hours ago. I think this will be low balled due to the winds. I think the volume of a 6" plus snow storm is there.

[stormchaser]

Officially in Omaha we had 4.4 inches of snow (at Eppley). Pretty spot on forecast in Omaha with most reporting around 3”-4” locally even though it was a very difficult forecast.

More totals here:
https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=oax

[Cermak]

Got about 3 inches in the 114th & Center area. Glad we didn’t get anymore this is plenty. Some impressive snow totals over in central Iowa, Des Moines airport reported 14 inches.

[Coyote]

Chris Machian: Omaha World Herald.

[Omaha Cowboy]

For my part of the metro, in the 120-132nd and West Center Rd area, we got a solid 3 inches..

Definitely the most significant snow of this winter season thus far..I’d love for it to be the last, lol. But alas, it’s only January 15th…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

For my part of the metro, in the 120-132nd and West Center Rd area, we got a solid 3 inches..

Definitely the most significant snow of this winter season thus far..I’d love for it to be the last, lol. But alas, it’s only January 15th…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

At least it’s back in the low 40s tomorrow and possibly pushing 50 by Tuesday. Long range currently looks quiet for the time being as well…

[Omaha Cowboy]

For my part of the metro, in the 120-132nd and West Center Rd area, we got a solid 3 inches..

Definitely the most significant snow of this winter season thus far..I’d love for it to be the last, lol. But alas, it’s only January 15th…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

At least it’s back in the low 40s tomorrow and possibly pushing 50 by Tuesday. Long range currently looks quiet for the time being as well…

Thanks for that update as always ..It gives me some winter weather peace of mind…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[stormchaser]

For my part of the metro, in the 120-132nd and West Center Rd area, we got a solid 3 inches..

Definitely the most significant snow of this winter season thus far..I’d love for it to be the last, lol. But alas, it’s only January 15th…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

At least it’s back in the low 40s tomorrow and possibly pushing 50 by Tuesday. Long range currently looks quiet for the time being as well…

Thanks for that update as always ..It gives me some winter weather peace of mind…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

Yes sir, you’re welcome!

[Omaha Cowboy]

My car temp gauge this afternoon held pretty steady at 53 degrees, although Randby’s high temp indicated it reached 47..splitting the difference, it was a nice 50 degree Mid January day in Omaha..

It’s too bad we couldn’t get another day or so of this weather because 90% of the snow from this past weekend would be history..but, we take what we can get..

Sounds like deep freeze weather the next several days. The bright spot, at least, it looks like no frozen precipitation is on the horizon…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[ita]

My car temp gauge this afternoon held pretty steady at 53 degrees, although Randby’s high temp indicated it reached 47..splitting the difference, it was a nice 50 degree Mid January day in Omaha..

It’s too bad we couldn’t get another day or so of this weather because 90% of the snow from this past weekend would be history..but, we take what we can get..

Sounds like deep freeze weather the next several days. The bright spot, at least, it looks like no frozen precipitation is on the horizon…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I could have definitely used another nice day. Was working on my car, perfect weather, but didn't finish. Now I have to wait a couple days before the weather is not so nasty.

[Omaha Cowboy]

My car temp gauge this afternoon held pretty steady at 53 degrees, although Randby’s high temp indicated it reached 47..splitting the difference, it was a nice 50 degree Mid January day in Omaha..

It’s too bad we couldn’t get another day or so of this weather because 90% of the snow from this past weekend would be history..but, we take what we can get..

Sounds like deep freeze weather the next several days. The bright spot, at least, it looks like no frozen precipitation is on the horizon…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

I could have definitely used another nice day. Was working on my car, perfect weather, but didn't finish. Now I have to wait a couple days before the weather is not so nasty.

I should have washed my car yesterday, but just didn’t get around to doing it..need to wait a few days until the weather gets a bit warmer…

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[Busguy2010]

I'm no fan of 50's in January, but the temperature gradient from yesterday to today is just offensive. Shocking, if you will. And normally shoot, 15 degrees is just fine to me, but today it feels cold.

[Omaha Cowboy]

Looking at the long range forecast through the end of January, once we get past highs in the 30’s this weekend, I’m seeking numerous days forecasted for the 40’s and a couple close to 50 through January 31st..

It’s good seeing that …

Ciao..LiO…Peace

[GetUrban]

I'm no fan of 50's in January, but the temperature gradient from yesterday to today is just offensive. Shocking, if you will. And normally shoot, 15 degrees is just fine to me, but today it feels cold.

I see a slight decrease in your preference for cold weather developing. A run of sub-zero weather can do that to a person, although I don’t think we’re getting close to anything like that now, thankfully.

[Busguy2010]

I see a slight decrease in your preference for cold weather developing. A run of sub-zero weather can do that to a person, although I don’t think we’re getting close to anything like that now, thankfully.

I get that. I think its more of a shock value for me. As in it shouldn't, for the most part be as warm as it has been, and for it to drop from about 50 to 10 with a wind chill in about 12 hours is understandably kinda shocking. If it had been normal all winter (about mid 30's), 15 degrees today would have been a cake walk.

Don't worry, I 100% prefer cold weather.

[stormchaser]

Looking more and more like we will finish out January with more of the same. For the most part dry with with high temps in the 30s/40s and occasional very brief shots of arctic air. Things aren’t really going to change any time soon unless this northwest flow pattern we’ve been stuck in most of this winter changes…

Will we finish out Winter this way? Only time will tell…

[Busguy2010]

That would frickin suck... But there's only a short month left before meteorological winter is over.

[GetUrban]

If we're lucky we'll finish out the winter and early spring without any extreme weather events, but I'll take some unusual shots of warm weather as a bonus. But we need some moisture though, even if comes in the form of snow.